今天，一张图在网上疯狂流传。人们纷纷惊呼：奇点真的来了？ 这张图显示，美国在AI基础设施上的支出，已经快超过了为人类劳动者的支出。 另外一个可怕的新闻是，上个季度美国的人工智能资本支出已经首次超出消费支出，成为GDP的驱动力。 与此同时，在过去一年里，美国已经约有50万个工作岗位消失。 美媒表示，今年这批毕业生正掉进「就业黑洞」！ 数据中心支出超过人类办公楼，硅基胜利了 昨天发布的官方数据显示，美国数据中心的建设在今年6月份再创历史新高，年化投资首次超过了400亿美元！ 这个数字与去年同期相比增长了28%，自近三年前推出ChatGPT以来增长了190%。 下图中黄色的曲线，是美国建造数据中心的支出。 可以说，我们已经处于白领工作的转折点，第五次工业革命已经到来。 同时，今年美国的应届毕业生们现状一片惨淡，CS专业高材生海投千份简历，最终只拿到星巴克offer的魔幻故事比比皆是。 而加上绿色曲线（建设办公楼的资金）后就会发现，前者已经在慢慢接近后者，甚至离超过后者的这一天，已经极其接近了。 有网友这样描述这些数据显示的盛况—— 数据中心起重机的功率，已经超过了办公室起重机； 硅基已经在平方英尺的竞赛中胜出； 现 ...

万科合伙人制度通过持股计划与项目跟投，将管理层与员工利益捆绑，激励创造力并共担风险，解决企 业分配矛盾和大企业病。万科利用职业经理人制度升级，平衡股东与管理者的关系，在地产行业开创合 伙人模式。但高杠杆及行业下行暴露风险，部分员工利益受损，制度优势逐渐减弱。 ...

近日，未可知人工智能研究院院长杜雨博士走进杭州运河万科中心，以 《AI抢饭碗时代，如何打造"AI免疫"的职业生涯？》 为题，带来了一场干 货与温度并存的沙龙分享，现场座无虚席。以下为三大核心观点速记，供未能到场的朋友一键收藏。 "这不是假设，而是已发生的现实。"杜雨用一张"剪刀差"曲线开场：过去五年，大模型推理成本下降了99%，而一线城市白领平均时薪却上涨了近 20%。"当两条曲线交汇，第一批被替代的岗位就会出现。我们必须正视，而不是掩耳盗铃。" 剪刀差已至： AI成本加速下降 VS 人力成本持续上涨 "不要和AI比算力，要和它比'漏洞'—— 人类最大的漏洞是情感，也是最大的护城河 。" 职场可以加速，生活必须减速 " AI把职场按下了快进键，但不代表我们要把这份焦虑带进生活。 "杜雨展示了自己的"双时钟"手机界面：工作区用番茄钟25分钟冲刺，生活区却 刻意关闭所有红点提醒。" 外面越是兵荒马乱，内心越要平静如水。 每天留30分钟给发呆、给散步、给读书，这才是对抗算法霸权的最小抵抗单 元。" — END — 标准答案让位机器， 模糊地带才是人的主场 "凡是有标准答案的地方，机器终将胜出；只有模糊地带，人类才能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [11] Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased, leading to a higher probability of policy easing. Future easing is merely a matter of timing [4][8] - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have already passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. Current stock positions are not far from the bottom, providing room for a rebound in cyclical sectors [4] - Emphasis is placed on leading real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and strong product capabilities, as well as leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies with stable cash flows [4] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.76% this week, with an excess return of -1.01% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 24th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 0.45%, with an excess return of -3.50%, ranking 29th [5][14] - The real estate sector performed poorly this week, with declines primarily in development and property management stocks, while rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to prevent and resolve risks in key areas and to conduct urban renewal with high quality. Local governments are encouraged to manage debt risks and enhance the attractiveness of domestic capital markets [6][18] - Shanghai is accelerating the renovation of "two old and one village," aiming to complete the renovation of approximately 380,000 square meters of old housing this year [6][18] Sales Data - New home and second-hand home registrations in sample cities remain at low levels. The new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 2.3% [7][20] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 37 cities is down 4.9%, while second-hand homes are up 15.3% [7][20]

Core Insights - The real estate market in July experienced a seasonal decline in supply and demand, reflected in the sales performance of real estate companies [2][4] - The total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies from January to July was 20,730.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3% [4] - The sales performance of leading real estate companies remained stable, with the top 10 companies showing a sales threshold increase of 5% year-on-year [2][4] Sales Performance - In July, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 18.2% year-on-year [2][6] - The top three companies by sales in the first seven months were Poly Developments (1,632 billion yuan), Greentown China (1,368 billion yuan), and China Overseas Land & Investment (1,319 billion yuan) [3][4] - The number of "billion-dollar" real estate companies increased to five this year, with an average sales amount of 1,320.1 billion yuan [11] Market Trends - The overall transaction volume of new homes in 30 key cities was 836 million square meters in July, down from 1,034 million square meters in June [14] - The cumulative transaction volume for the first seven months remained roughly flat compared to the previous year [14] - The market is expected to see a low-level fluctuation in new home transactions, with a projected year-on-year decline of less than 5% [14] Policy and Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for stable and flexible macroeconomic policies to boost market confidence [15] - Various cities have introduced new policies to enhance supply quality and meet diverse housing needs, including optimizing public housing loan policies [15] - The real estate market is still in a phase of adjustment, with structural opportunities in "good cities + good houses" expected to emerge [15]

Group 1: National Development and Reform Commission - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is conducting cost investigations in industries with significant "involution" competition to address issues of low-price disorder [1] - The NDRC aims to revise pricing laws and enhance policy communication to encourage companies to self-regulate their pricing behaviors [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market - Li Ka-shing's CK Asset Holdings is selling 400 properties in the Greater Bay Area starting from a total price of 400,000 HKD, attracting interest from Hong Kong buyers [2][4] - The price of the Huizhou Longpo Garden has dropped over 30% compared to the average price in 2020, making it a focal point for buyers [2] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Changan Automobile Group was established in just 56 days, aiming to become a top ten global automotive manufacturer by 2030, with a target of producing 5 million vehicles, including over 60% in new energy vehicles [5] Group 4: Technology Sector - Nvidia was summoned by the National Cyberspace Administration of China regarding security risks associated with its H20 chip, highlighting concerns over network and data security for Chinese users [4] Group 5: Consumer Electronics - Apple reported a record revenue of 94.04 billion USD for Q3 of fiscal year 2025, with a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by a 4% growth in revenue from the Greater China region [6] - The increase in sales is attributed to the implementation of national subsidies and significant price reductions on the iPhone 16 Pro series [6] Group 6: Duty-Free Retail - China Duty Free Group reported a 9.96% decline in revenue to 28.151 billion CNY and a 20.81% drop in net profit for the first half of 2025, despite an increase in market share in the Hainan duty-free market [7] - The upcoming full closure of Hainan Free Trade Port in December 2025 is expected to provide policy benefits and opportunities for the company [7] Group 7: Corporate Financing - Shenzhen Metro Group has provided Vanke with over 8.69 billion CNY in loans this year, bringing the total loans to over 22.6 billion CNY [8] Group 8: Competitive Landscape in Imaging Technology - DJI launched its first panoramic camera, the Osmo 360 8K, indicating a strategic move into the panoramic imaging market, which is currently dominated by Insta360 [8] - Insta360 is also entering the market with plans to release the world's first panoramic drone, intensifying competition between the two companies [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tianyi New Materials announced a projected loss of 190 million to 240 million yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting broader challenges in various industries [1] Group 1: Company Performance - A total of 1,563 companies have released performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with 655 companies expecting losses [1] - Among the companies projecting losses, Vanke A is expected to incur the largest loss, estimated between 10 billion to 12 billion yuan [2] - Other companies with significant projected losses include Huaxia Happiness, with an expected loss of 5.5 billion to 7.5 billion yuan, and Tongwei Co., with an expected loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest number of companies projecting losses include computer, basic chemicals, and real estate, with 51, 48, and 47 companies respectively [1] - The main board has 641 companies forecasting losses, while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation boards have 6 companies each [2] - The majority of companies projecting losses have been listed for over 5 years, with 614 such companies, indicating a potential trend of long-term challenges in these sectors [2]

Group 1 - The land market remains active in 2025, with top 100 real estate companies acquiring land worth a total of 578.3 billion yuan from January to July, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [1] - The top 10 real estate companies accounted for 43.5% of the total new value added, with Greentown China leading at 111.6 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas Property and Poly Developments at 93.5 billion yuan and 90.7 billion yuan respectively [1] - Competitive bidding for prime land in core cities is intense, with record-breaking floor prices, such as the 200,300 yuan per square meter for a land parcel in Shanghai's Xuhui District [1] Group 2 - Real estate companies are actively acquiring land during this "window period" to replenish their portfolios, driven by the release of premium and scarce land by local governments [2] - In July, the overall real estate market experienced a seasonal decline in supply and demand, with new home transaction volumes in 30 key cities totaling approximately 8.36 million square meters, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] - Poly Developments led sales with 150.1 billion yuan in transaction volume, while Greentown China and China Overseas Property followed closely [2] Group 3 - The new home transaction volume is expected to continue fluctuating at low levels in August, with a projected year-on-year decline of less than 5% [3] - Core first- and second-tier cities may experience a temporary cooling, while some second-tier cities like Tianjin, Wuhan, and Nanjing could see a phase of recovery [3] - The real estate market is still in a phase of adjustment, with structural opportunities in "good cities + good properties" [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the performance of the top 100 real estate companies in July 2025 showed a significant decline, with sales amounting to 236.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2% [1] - Only about 30% of the top 100 real estate companies achieved positive year-on-year sales growth in July [1] - Cumulative sales for the top 100 real estate companies from January to July 2025 reached 2,073.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.3% [1] Group 2 - Among the top real estate companies, only five surpassed 100 billion yuan in sales, with Poly Developments leading at 163.2 billion yuan [2] - The land market in core cities remains active, with total land acquisition by the top 100 companies reaching 578.3 billion yuan from January to July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [2] - The competition for quality land in core cities is intense, with record-breaking land prices, such as a plot in Shanghai's Xuhui District selling for 200,000 yuan per square meter [2] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings emphasizes that actively acquiring land is crucial for Chinese rated real estate companies to maintain competitiveness, as new land sales typically outpace old inventory [3] - The supply of residential land in first-tier cities has increased significantly this year, with varying trends in land prices across cities [3] - The central government's macro policy aims to enhance stability and flexibility, with a focus on high-quality urban renewal as a key development strategy [3]

智通财经8月1日讯（记者 李洁）随着房地产行业进入传统淡季，百强房企7月业绩出现幅度不小的回 落。 中指院数据显示，2025年7月单月，TOP100房企销售额2366亿元，同比下降18.2%。另据国泰海通证券 数据，7月仅有近3成百强房企单月销售同比实现正增长。 "在止跌回稳政策组合拳催化下，2025年以来新房销售市场呈反复波动态势，经历2月改善后，3-4月边 际回落，5月销售有所改善后，6月热度又开始回落，7月则延续保持低位。"申万宏源分析师袁豪表示。 从新增货值来看，绿城中国、中海地产和保利发展位列前三，其中绿城中国以1116亿元新增货值占据榜 单第一，中海地产以935亿元新增货值位列第二，保利发展新增货值规模为907亿元，位列第三。 "2025年7月，核心城市优质地块竞争依旧激烈，一方面，企业竞拍热情高涨，数十轮竞价争夺优质地 块。另一方面，拿地楼面价屡破纪录，如上海徐汇区一地块以20万元/平方米的成交楼面价刷新了全国 成交楼面价纪录，进一步说明房企对优质地块争夺的激烈程度。"陶淑茹称。 惠誉评级亚太区企业评级董事石露露认为，积极拿地仍是中国受评房企保持竞争力的关键因素。由于新 地块的销售速度通常快于旧 ...