房地产新旧模式转换
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《求是》:改善和稳定房地产市场预期|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2026-01-03 09:47
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market in China to support the overall economy and prevent systemic risks, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - China's real estate market is undergoing significant adjustments, with some projects and cities experiencing oversupply, leading to a notable decline in sales and prices, which impacts the demand side of the economy and financial institutions [3][5]. - The real estate sector is crucial for the national economy, contributing to employment and involving numerous related industries such as steel, cement, and home appliances, with its value added accounting for 13% of GDP in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Development - Since the early 1980s, China has transitioned from welfare housing to a market-oriented housing system, significantly improving living conditions over 20 years, with urban per capita housing area reaching 38.6 square meters by 2020 [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" anticipates a cumulative sales area of approximately 5 billion square meters of commercial housing, with urban per capita housing area projected to reach around 41 square meters by the end of 2024 [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Structural Changes - The real estate market is shifting from a phase of housing shortage to a phase of balance, with structural supply issues, particularly in affordable housing for new citizens and young people [5][7]. - There is a growing demand for quality housing, with residents increasingly focused on the quality of living rather than mere availability [5]. Group 4: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting in September 2024 called for measures to stabilize the real estate market, including a combination of policies aimed at risk prevention and promoting transformation [8]. - The government is implementing various initiatives to enhance housing supply, including the construction of affordable housing and the renovation of old residential areas, with a focus on meeting the high-quality living needs of the population [8][9]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Expectations - Despite overall stability in the real estate market, some cities are experiencing fluctuations, and real estate development investment continues to decline, indicating a need for time to adjust and stabilize market dynamics [9][10]. - The article stresses the importance of maintaining policy consistency and effectively managing supply to support the transition to a new development model in the real estate sector [10][11].
住建部会议透露“十五五”楼市调控新思路:“稳楼市”从首要任务变为第二重点,房地产开启新旧模式转换
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-12-24 11:33
本报(chinatimes.net.cn)记者刘诗萌 北京报道 继中央经济工作会议和中财办解读后,房地产再度迎来重磅定调。 12月22日至23日,全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开。会议提出,2026年要着力抓好4方面工作, 分别是推进现代化人民城市建设、着力稳定房地产市场、加快建筑业提质升级和夯实高质量发展基础支 撑。另外会议还对"十五五"如何推动房地产高质量发展作了部署,其中提到,要充分认识二手房交易占 比上升是今后一个时期的趋势,把新房市场和二手房市场作为一个整体来看待。 《华夏时报》记者注意到,纵观最近五年的全国住房城乡建设工作会议,从2021年房地产市场整体进入 下行通道开始,过去四年这一会议在布置第二年重点工作时始终将稳定房地产市场放在第一条。而今 年,以高质量开展城市更新、城镇老旧小区改造等为重点的推进现代化人民城市建设被放在重点任务的 第一条,着力稳定房地产市场则变为第二条。 广东省城规院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉向《华夏时报》记者表示,将"着力稳定房地产市 场"放在第二条主要有几方面原因:一方面,保交房任务全面完成以后,行业调整对民生保障的冲击基 本解决了;另一方面,随着行业出险企业陆 ...
聚焦中央经济工作会议丨把“稳”字落到实处推动房地产市场健康发展
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-12-24 11:07
新华社北京12月23日电 题:把"稳"字落到实处推动房地产市场健康发展 房地产发展的最终落脚点是民生,要以高质量供给满足居民不断升级的住房需求。适老化、适儿化等新 需求涌现,舒适度、智能化成为许多人购房的新期待。会议要求"有序推动'好房子'建设",正是"优供 给"的要义所在。未来的房子,既要建得好,也要改得巧。把新房子建成"好房子",把老房子逐步改造 成"好房子",打造安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的宜居家园。 日前举行的中央经济工作会议明确提出"着力稳定房地产市场",强调"因城施策控增量、去库存、优供 给"。一系列部署释放"稳"的信号,为房地产市场平稳健康发展指明方向。 保持房地产市场稳定关系经济运行、关乎民生福祉。落实好已出台政策举措,推进新旧模式平稳有序转 换,必将进一步形成房地产市场持续稳定发展的内生动力,为经济社会高质量发展提供坚实支撑。 当前,我国房地产市场供求关系已发生重大变化。一方面,住房供给从总量短缺转为总量基本平衡、结 构性供给不足;另一方面,我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进,城市存量优化调整也有广阔空间,人民群众 对"好房子"形成新期待,房地产仍有较大发展潜力。 着力稳定房地产市场,需保持市场供需动态 ...
土地月报|成交规模同比延续缩量,平均溢价率迎来回升(2025年11月)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-11-28 08:13
Core Viewpoint - The industry is undergoing a transformation from old to new models, with the land market expected to adjust first as a key upstream indicator [2][7]. Supply and Demand - The supply of land in November 2025 was 290 million square meters, a 250% increase month-on-month but a 9% decrease year-on-year. The transaction area was 86.04 million square meters, up 39% month-on-month but down 27% year-on-year [3][4][10]. - The overall supply and demand scale continues to decline year-on-year, indicating a contraction in the land market [4][10]. Market Heat - The average premium rate in November was 4.1%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points from the previous month. However, the bidding heat remains concentrated in a few premium areas, with many plots sold at base prices [5][20]. - In November, 9% of land parcels failed to sell, remaining at a near-low level, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [22]. Distribution - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year increase in transaction value by 43%, while second-tier cities decreased by 17%, and third and fourth-tier cities dropped by 39% [6]. Future Outlook - The land market is expected to adjust significantly as it is a leading indicator for the industry. The total land transaction area for 2025 is projected to be only 1.1 times that of new housing transactions, down from 1.8 times in 2020, indicating a shift towards a new inventory reduction cycle [7][10]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized urban renewal, which is expected to provide quality projects and support high-quality urban development, potentially stabilizing the market [8][14]. Key Land Transactions - Notable land transactions in November included a residential plot in Beijing's Chaoyang District sold for 5.024 billion yuan with a premium rate of 18.21%, and a commercial plot in Yiwu with a premium rate of 159% [27][28]. - The highest nominal floor price was recorded for a residential plot in Beijing at 81,120 yuan per square meter, reflecting the premium nature of certain urban areas [31][33].
房地产处在新旧模式转换时期,二手房替代作用不断增强
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-11-17 01:47
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the second-hand housing market in China is showing signs of recovery, with a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to October, and second-hand homes accounting for 45% of total transactions [1][2] - Major cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanjing, Changzhou, and Dongguan have seen over a 10% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transaction area [1] - Analysts suggest that as the housing market transitions to a stock era, the role of second-hand homes as a substitute for new homes is becoming increasingly significant [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has been actively implementing supportive policies to stimulate rigid and improved housing demand, contributing to a stabilization in the real estate market [2] - Despite fluctuations in the real estate market, the effectiveness of these policies is evident, with a narrowing decline in commodity housing sales and ongoing inventory reduction [2] - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the real estate market is in a transitional phase, requiring time for adjustment, and emphasized the need for a new development model for the sector [4]
库存“八连降”、销售降幅收窄,房地产转型驶入“深水区”
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 14:01
11月14日,国家统计局发布最新数据显示,1-10月全国房地产开发投资7.36万亿元,同比下降14.7%,反映出房地产市场仍处于深度调整期。但与此同时, 在系列政策措施推动下,销售降幅收窄,库存连降8个月。 对此,广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为,今年1-10月,全国房屋新开工和房地产开发投资分别下降19.8%和14.7%,延续了下降的态势。但需 要注意的是,这种下行不仅是新房交易端转弱导致行业被动收缩的结果,更是主动为之,即积极推动房地产旧模式向新模式转型,通过上游供给端收缩来平 衡下游供求关系以实现止跌回稳的新阶段,因此必须严控增量。 "严控增量,不是不允许增量供应,而是要详细分析各个片区各类住房的供求态势,精准投放新房产品,避免同质化、过多供给,实现优化存量。同时,还 要以高质量的供给牵引需求,不仅商品房要打造好房子,老房子、保障房也都要改造或建设为好房子,达到消化库存和促进增量和存量良性循环的目 的。"李宇嘉表示,最终可以通过供给侧精细化管理,需求侧不懈努力,修复就业和收入等基本面,做大增量空间,夯实新开工和开发投资稳定的基础。 商品房销售降幅收窄,库存环比减少322万平方米 当天,在新闻办 ...
商品房库存连续8个月减少
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-14 12:20
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing fluctuations, but the effects of policies are becoming evident, with a narrowing decline in new housing sales compared to last year [2] Group 1: Market Performance - From January to October, the sales area and sales amount of new commercial housing decreased by 6.8% and 9.6% year-on-year, respectively, with declines narrowing by 9 percentage points and 11.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][5] - As of the end of October, the unsold housing area nationwide was 75,606 million square meters, a decrease of 3.22 million square meters from the end of September, marking eight consecutive months of reduction [5] - In October, new home prices in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities fell by 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.5% month-on-month, respectively, with six cities, including Shanghai and Hangzhou, experiencing price increases [3][4] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - The ongoing inventory reduction efforts have led to a continuous decline in unsold housing, with residential unsold area decreasing by 2.92 million square meters this year [5][6] - The supply of new projects has been adjusted downward, with many projects being promoted under the "good housing" standard, leading to an improvement in inventory structure and supply-demand relationships [6] Group 3: Investment Trends - From January to October, real estate development investment totaled 73,563 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, with the decline rate increasing by 0.8 percentage points compared to previous values [7] - The funding received by real estate companies decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the same period last year and the previous year [7] - The approval amount for loans related to "white list" projects has exceeded 70 billion yuan, indicating a need for further policy implementation to support the sector [7][8] Group 4: Policy Measures - Various regions have accelerated the implementation of supportive policies to stimulate rigid and improved housing demand, aiming to stabilize the real estate market [8] - The next steps involve adhering to the decisions of the central government and promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector through a combination of short-term and long-term strategies [8]