A股快速轮动、冲高回落后，进入5月下旬，市场将作何表现呢？ 智通财经搜集了10家券商的观点，大部分券商认为，随着资本市场基础制度改革提速和资金情绪略有回 升，叠加经济基本面有望脉冲式改善，接下来A股指数有望进一步缓步推高，并向上挑战震荡区间上 限。 国泰海通证券表示，展望后市仍然保持乐观，随着资本市场基础制度改革提速，继续看好中国股市。同 时贴现率下降是如今中国股市上升的重要动力，A股指数有望进一步缓步推高。 中信证券：回归基准是通过基准的行业配比向基金持仓配比演化而不是相反 当前，市场对于公募考核新规以及回归基准行业配置的讨论存在一些误区。从海外经验来看，回归基准 是通过基准的行业配比向基金持仓配比演化而不是相反；产品投资策略向客户盈利导向回归，在长期视 野下，这与追求排名和绝对收益并不矛盾，反而是统一的；跑输基准的惩罚机制最终导致的是基金减少 博弈性持仓，长期来看最大的影响是活跃头寸的占比下降。 "二季度经济基本面有望脉冲式改善。二季度从'抢转口'到'抢出口'，外需从初步显现下行压力，到可能 脉冲式上行。尽管基本面改善尚无法外推，但短期数据验证有望保持强势，至少排除了下行风险。5月 政策兑现成为主要矛盾阶 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]

Group 1 - The issuer of the bonds is China National Railway Group Co., Ltd., which is the restructured entity of the former China Railway Corporation [1][42] - The total issuance scale of the bonds is 10 billion yuan, specifically the "2025 Fifth Phase China Railway Construction Bonds" [4][43] - The lead underwriter for this bond issuance is CITIC Securities [5][42] Group 2 - The bonds are divided into two types: a 10-year bond with a scale of 5 billion yuan and a 30-year bond also with a scale of 5 billion yuan, totaling 10 billion yuan [43] - The coupon rate for the 10-year bond is based on the Shibor benchmark rate plus a basic spread ranging from -0.5% to 0.5%, while the 30-year bond has a spread range of -0.4% to 0.6% [43] - The Shibor benchmark rate used for this issuance is the average of the one-year Shibor rate over the five working days prior to the announcement, which is 1.68% [43] Group 3 - The bidding for the bonds will take place on May 20, 2025, with the issuance results announced on May 21, 2025 [20][44] - The bonds will be issued through a single-rate (Dutch-style) bidding process, and the final coupon rate will be determined based on market results [18][44] - The bonds will be listed on the interbank bond market and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, allowing participation from both institutional and individual investors [28][44]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the impact of tariffs on the China-U.S. trade relationship, particularly regarding Chinese manufacturing and exports to the U.S. [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Despite a 145% tariff increase by the U.S., China's exports to the U.S. only decreased by 20% in April, indicating that Chinese manufacturing is difficult to replace in the short term [1][3] - The U.S. has exempted 26.3% of Chinese goods from tariffs, reflecting the pressure on U.S. importers and consumers to seek exemptions due to high tariff burdens [1][3] - Chinese industries such as electric vehicles, domestic smartphones, and athletic shoes maintain a significant price advantage, making them resilient to tariff increases [1][7] - U.S. imports of rubber, plastics, chemicals, leather, and textiles from China have seen price increases but have not reduced dependency, indicating strong demand characteristics [1][8] - Key U.S. industries reliant on Chinese imports include apparel, leather, electrical equipment, machinery, and consumer electronics, which continue to import despite rising prices due to strong supply chain dependencies [1][9] - Port logistics have improved, with a rebound in foreign trade cargo volume at key ports, indicating ongoing export activities [1][15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The April U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3%, slightly below expectations, with retail data showing a 0.1% month-on-month increase, suggesting a potential future softening in economic performance [2][27] - The resilience of Chinese manufacturing is highlighted by the lower-than-expected impact of tariffs on exports, contrasting with the significant declines seen during the previous tariff conflicts in 2018-2019 [3][4] - The evaluation of industry replaceability under current tariff conditions can be analyzed through six dimensions, providing a comprehensive understanding of the trade relationship and its economic impacts [4] - The potential for other countries to replace China in supply chains is limited, with Vietnam and Mexico facing challenges in matching China's production capabilities [10][11] - Recent industrial production has remained stable, with some sectors showing improvement, while investment performance has been weak, particularly in the real estate sector [12][13] - The outlook for U.S. economic performance suggests a potential shift towards stagnation or recession, with inflation pressures and consumer spending being critical areas to monitor [17][24]

中信证券：关于回归基准配置的几个误区和几个事实 我们认为市场对于公募考核新规以及回归基准行业配置的讨论存在一些误区。从海外经验来看，回归基准是通 过基准的行业配比向基金持仓配比演化而不是相反；产品投资策略向客户盈利导向回归，在长期视野下，这与 追求排名和绝对收益并不矛盾，反而是统一的；跑输基准的惩罚机制最终导致的是基金减少博弈性持仓，长期 来看最大的影响是活跃头寸的占比下降。 此外，用前瞻眼光去看，未来如果外资逐步回流，市场生态也会相较过去3年发生重大转变，不能用后视镜视 角静态去看行业配比，好公司和差公司之间的差异会远远超过所谓的"好行业"和"差行业"。 申万宏源：公募持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢未必是普遍趋势 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》是长期改革，而其短期映射，成为结构性行情的主要线索。在我们看 来，主动公募产品调整业绩比较基准，是集中梳理产品策略的一次机遇。而持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢却未必是 普遍趋势。 如何去有效地设定基准是长期而言实现客户利益、赢得竞争并避免被被动型产品替代的最关键问题。对于主动 权益型产品而言，沪深300、中证800以及A500作为全市场基金基准都有较大的局限性，能够反映新质生产力 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while the yields in other developed countries showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - The article also highlights the performance of commodities, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]

Group 1 - Short-term macro expectations are unlikely to change direction, maintaining the judgment that the second quarter will be a high central oscillation market. The mid-term A-share fundamentals have not fundamentally changed, and it is insufficient to support a breakout in A-shares [4][5][6] - The active public funds are aligning with performance benchmarks, emphasizing the importance of not underestimating long-term impacts while not overestimating short-term effects. The adjustment of performance benchmarks for public funds is seen as an opportunity to consolidate product strategies [5][6][7] - In the active equity products, 77% of the scale is based on broad-based indices, and 42% is based on the CSI 300. Future performance benchmarks need to clarify product positioning, investment strategies, and investment styles [6][7][8] Group 2 - The market is currently discussing the long-term impact of the public fund quality development action plan, which has become a major clue for short-term structural trends. The alignment of holdings with performance benchmarks is not necessarily a universal trend [5][6][7] - The public fund's performance indicators are generally showing cyclical fluctuations and are currently at a bottom area. The next two years may see a gradual recovery in public fund profitability and an increase in the proportion of profitable clients [7][8] - The report highlights that low-valuation, high-dividend assets benefiting from public fund reforms are currently in a low cost-performance area. The technology sector remains a relatively high cost-performance direction compared to consumption, with a strategic focus on the domestic AI industry chain and embodied intelligence investment opportunities [8][9]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲 明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 的 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：6806） 海外監管公告 本公告乃由申萬宏源集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規 則第13.10B條作出。 茲載列本公司於深圳證券交易所網站發佈之《申萬宏源集團股份有限公司關於參加新疆轄區上 市公司2025年投資者網上集體接待日活動的公告》，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 申 万 宏 源 集 团 股 份 有 限 公 司 关于参加新疆辖区上市公司 2025 年 投资者网上集体接待日活动的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，公司将参加由新疆上市公司 协会根据新疆证监局工作部署，联合深圳市全景网络有限公司举办的 "2025 年新疆辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日活动"，现将相关 事项公告如下： 本次 ...

证券代码：000166 证券简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-35 申 万 宏 源 集 团 股 份 有 限 公 司 关于参加新疆辖区上市公司 2025 年 投资者网上集体接待日活动的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 二〇二五年五月十六日 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，公司将参加由新疆上市公司 协会根据新疆证监局工作部署，联合深圳市全景网络有限公司举办的 "2025 年新疆辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日活动"，现将相关 事项公告如下： 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演" 网站（http://rs.p5w.net），或关注微信公众号：全景财经，或下载全 景路演APP，参与本次互动交流，活动时间为2025年5月23日（周五） 15:00-17:30。届时公司高管将在线就公司2024年度业绩、公司治理、 发展战略、经营状况和可持续发展等投资者关心的问题，与投资者进 行沟通与交流，欢迎广大投资者踊跃参与。 特此公告。 申万宏源集团股份有限公司董事会 ...

Key Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that after the verification period in April, the main contradiction in the fundamentals has shifted, with concerns about external demand still present. The domestic actual hedging strength has become the primary contradiction. Since May, two important catalysts have emerged: the press conference on May 7 and the Sino-US Geneva trade talks on May 12, leading to an upward adjustment in the A-share market's fluctuation range [2][3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to test the upper limit of the fluctuation range following key changes. The financial policy is fully relaxed, directly related to stabilizing capital market expectations. The central bank has implemented various tools to support the market, which is anticipated to maintain short-term risk appetite and overall market activity [2][12] Medium-term Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply and demand structure has not yet systematically improved, and the judgment of a fluctuating market remains unchanged. Concerns about the impact of Trump’s policies persist, and the absolute pressure on domestic supply remains high. The demand side shows that the support for import demand from US inventory replenishment has peaked, with further pressure expected in the second and third quarters of 2025 [2][19][33] Earnings Forecast Update - The earnings forecast for A-shares in 2025 has been updated, reflecting a slight increase from the bottom but not confirming effective improvement. The net profit growth rate for the entire A-share market was -55% in Q4 2024, significantly below expectations, while Q1 2025 showed a growth of 6.3%, exceeding expectations. However, the logic behind these changes remains unclear [2][48][54] Sector Performance Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight recovery in demand, but the supply-demand structure remains weak. Key sectors showing clear performance improvement include consumption, pharmaceuticals, and AI computing power. The consumer sector is mainly benefiting from durable goods, while the pharmaceutical sector is seeing growth in innovative drugs and blood products. AI computing revenue growth has also shown signs of recovery [3][5][22] Policy and Market Dynamics - The recent policy changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aim to enhance the quality of public funds and strengthen the binding of interests with investors. The focus is on improving the stability of fund investment behavior and enhancing the ability to serve investors. The impact of these policies is expected to resonate with the long-term trend towards passive equity products [3][5][12] Structural Recommendations - Both short-term and long-term structural recommendations favor technology sectors. The first quarter earnings expectations for technology have strengthened, indicating a relative advantage in cost-effectiveness. The long-term outlook for A-shares requires significant catalysts from key technology industries to restart a structural bull market [3][5][6]