Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The lithium mining industry is experiencing a gradual stabilization after a period of clearing out excess inventory, with signs of a cyclical turning point approaching [2][3] - The report highlights that the performance of listed lithium companies is under pressure due to declining lithium prices and increased inventory levels, but there are indications of potential recovery in the second half of 2025 [8][10] Market Analysis - Lithium prices fell to 60,000 yuan/ton in Q2 2025, down from 74,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a continued downward trend due to oversupply [10] - The production growth rate of lithium salts in China slowed, with Q2 2025 production at 299,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [11] - Social inventory of lithium salts remained high at over 150,000 tons due to weak demand [16] Company Performance - The total operating revenue of the 12 listed lithium companies reached 35.36 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3% [21] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9% year-on-year to 3.227 billion yuan in Q2 2025, impacted by reduced gross profit and inventory impairment losses [25] - The gross margin for the companies was 22.36%, showing a reversal trend, while the net margin was 9.13% [33][36] Financial Metrics - The total expenses for the 12 companies amounted to 2.287 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year [40] - Capital expenditures for the companies totaled 11.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, indicating a slowdown in investment as the industry approaches a cyclical bottom [53] - The debt repayment capability remains stable, with an average cash ratio of 0.64 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.25% [61][62]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the A-share market for the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant gains in various companies following the release of a new growth plan for the industry [1] - On September 28, eight departments issued the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the industry's added value and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [1] - The plan emphasizes the need for improved resource development in copper, aluminum, and lithium, with a target of exceeding 20 million tons in recycled metal production and enhancing the supply capacity of high-end products [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include: - Platinum Technology Materials up 14.55% with a market cap of 24.9 billion [2] - Huaxi Nonferrous up 10.01% with a market cap of 21.4 billion [2] - Boji New Materials up 10% with a market cap of 17.1 billion [2] - Other companies such as Xiyang Co., Jiangxi Copper, and Huayou Cobalt also saw significant increases, with gains ranging from 5% to over 8% [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is positive, driven by the MACD golden cross signal formation, indicating a favorable trend for these stocks [2]

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a significant increase of 4.85% on September 29, with Boqian New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Sector Performance - Boqian New Materials (605376) saw a closing price of 59.49, with a rise of 10.00% and a trading volume of 18,400 lots, amounting to 110 million yuan [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) closed at 58.50, up 7.83%, with a trading volume of 1,189,500 lots and a transaction value of 6.772 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Sai Rui Aluminum (300618) at 53.24, up 5.78% [1] - Huayou Cobalt (603799) at 60.25, up 5.46% [1] - Tengyuan Diamond (301219) at 72.27, up 5.20% [1] Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 1.344 billion yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 828 million yuan [1] - Ganfeng Lithium had a main fund net inflow of 5.42 billion yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 2.96 billion yuan [2] - Huayou Cobalt also reported a main fund net inflow of 4.97 billion yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 4.53 billion yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate futures have not obtained marginal drivers to break through the 74,000 - point resistance. Supply - side new capacity release and overseas lithium mine cost optimization are potential negatives, while demand - side new energy vehicle sales growth and stronger cathode material prices provide support. The strengthening basis shows the need for futures - spot structure repair, and pre - holiday downstream point - price procurement may limit the downside space, but the shrinking position indicates that funds lack confidence in breaking through the previous high. There is a risk of a slight downward shift in the price center if demand growth is lower than supply release [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 26, the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day. The basis strengthened significantly to 620 yuan/ton, reversing 1,160 yuan from the previous day. The main contract position decreased by 4.79% to 248,600 lots, a new low in the past five days, while the trading volume increased by 40.35% to 481,000 lots, indicating active short - term trading due to price fluctuations [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the price of spodumene concentrate remained at 6,390 yuan/ton. Australia's Core Lithium completed the restart study of the Finniss project, with mining costs reduced by 40%, which may enhance the supply elasticity of spodumene in the future. Tibet Mining's Zabuye Salt Lake's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project was officially put into production, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang was completed, gradually releasing domestic lithium salt production capacity. The proportion of spodumene process exceeded 60%, and the supply structure tended to be stable. On the demand side, according to the Passenger Car Association, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 10% year - on - year on September 21, and the demand for power batteries remained resilient. The price of ternary materials continued to rise, with the power - type ternary material exceeding 121,300 yuan/ton, and lithium hexafluorophosphate rising to 58,300 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate slightly decreased by 40 yuan to 33,600 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased for five consecutive weeks to 136,800 tons, a decrease of 706 tons compared with September 19 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: On September 26, the lithium carbonate main contract price decreased by 1.57% to 72,880 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 214.81% to 620 yuan/ton; the main contract position decreased by 4.79% to 248,640 lots; the main contract trading volume increased by 40.35% to 481,020 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73,500 yuan/ton, and the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate also remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.43% to 58,250 yuan/ton, the power - type ternary material increased by 0.50% to 121,350 yuan/ton, and the power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.12% to 33,650 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 71.31%, and the inventory decreased by 0.51% to 136,825 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotes**: On September 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,491 yuan/ton, down 187 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,800 - 74,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 - 71,950 yuan/ton, with an average price of 71,350 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to fluctuate, with the main contract oscillating between 72,100 - 74,500 yuan/ton. Downstream material factories made point - price actions at low points and returned to a cautious waiting - and - seeing attitude after the price rebounded. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from lepidolite decreased to 15%. In September, the market showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate was faster, and it was expected that there would be a stage of tight supply in that month [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 724,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 19%. The wholesale penetration rate was 55.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 9.668 million, a year - on - year increase of 31% [7]. - **Industry News**: On September 20, the electromechanical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base officially entered, marking the project's civil engineering entering a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will supply large - cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen factory. On September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang was completed and put into production. On September 20 - 24, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Zabuye Salt Lake completed a 120 - hour functional assessment, marking its official operation, which is expected to significantly improve the domestic lithium resource self - sufficiency rate [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market improved marginally, and the market's gaming enthusiasm cooled down, resulting in no significant fluctuations in lithium prices. The supply of lithium carbonate reached a new high, but the inventory scale decreased. The demand for energy storage remained strong, and the high - frequency sales growth rate of the power terminal rebounded. However, the market was concerned about the direction of lithium mines on September 30th, and the trading volume of the main contract decreased, indicating that both long and short positions were withdrawing their bets on the direction of lithium mines on September 30th [4]. - In the later stage, the direction of lithium mines may be the only disturbing factor, and the price will fluctuate. This week, there are only two trading days for lithium carbonate, and without the influence of external markets, the market may wait for the final ruling of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The marginal variables of the fundamentals have limited influence, and the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling is mostly over. The trading in the spot market may gradually stagnate, and the core of the market gaming is still on the resource ruling. Therefore, the trend direction of lithium prices is not clear, and the market gaming has cooled down. The short - term view is that the price will remain volatile [4][15]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) remained unchanged from September 19th to September 26th, 2025. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.46% to 7.29 million yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, a decrease of 100%. The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.46% to 7.27 million yuan/ton. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse and fine particles) increased slightly. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.10% to 130,581 tons. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 6.85%, and the prices of ternary materials also increased slightly [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of September 26, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 40,329 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 74,700 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2511 was 248,600 lots [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of September 26, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 21,469 tons, an increase of 344 tons from the previous period. New production capacities were put into operation, such as the lithium extraction project from Zabuye Salt Lake of Tibet Mining with a designed annual capacity of about 12,000 tons, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium salt project in Zhangjiagang [8]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. The import from Chile was about 15,608 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%, accounting for about 71%. The import from Argentina was 4,253 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%, accounting for about 19%. The average import price decreased by about 14% [9]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In August, the total import of lithium ore was about 619,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.51%. The import from Australia decreased by 50.5% to 212,000 tons, the import from Zimbabwe increased by 84% to 118,000 tons, and the import from Nigeria decreased by 9.6% to 105,000 tons. The imports from Mali and Brazil increased significantly [10][11]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of September 26, the output of lithium iron phosphate was about 78,166 tons, with an operating rate of 68.79%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory decreased by 96 tons. The output of ternary materials was about 18,070 tons, with an operating rate of 47.28%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory increased by 60 tons. The prices of both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased slightly, but the market trading became colder, and the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling was mostly over [12]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From September 1st to 21st, the retail sales of the domestic new - energy passenger vehicle market were 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million units, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, Trump announced a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto parts. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns about the terminal consumption market [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 130,581 tons, an increase of about 135 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by about 375 tons, the market inventory decreased by about 1,085 tons, and the exchange inventory increased by 845 lots [14]. This Week's Outlook - The direction of lithium mines may be the only disturbing factor, and the price will fluctuate. With only two trading days this week and no influence from external markets, the market may wait for the final ruling of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The marginal variables of the fundamentals have limited influence, and the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling is mostly over. The trading in the spot market may gradually stagnate, and the core of the market gaming is still on the resource ruling. Therefore, the trend direction of lithium prices is not clear, and the short - term view is that the price will remain volatile [15]. Industry News - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially completed and put into operation on September 25th in Zhangjiagang [16]. - Tibet Mining's battery - grade lithium carbonate project in Zabuye Salt Lake was officially put into production. It is the world's first large - scale salt - lake lithium extraction industrial device using a combination of membrane separation and MVR evaporation crystallization technology [16]. - The first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation on September 20th, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate processing and 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [16]. Relevant Charts - The document provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and the production of new - energy vehicle batteries from 2022 to 2025 [18][20][22]

Battery - Chuangneng New Energy launched a new generation 588Ah energy storage battery with an energy density of 190Wh/kg and a volume energy density of 419Wh/L, achieving an energy efficiency of 96.5%. The company plans to have over 200GWh of production capacity, with small-scale production expected in Q2 2026 and full-scale production in Q3 2026 [1] - EVE Energy's first large-capacity sodium-ion battery energy storage system has successfully entered commercial operation, featuring a cycle life of over 30,000 times and operational capabilities in a temperature range of -40℃ to +60℃, significantly reducing lifecycle carbon emissions by over 42% compared to lithium-ion batteries [2][3] Materials - Greenme's Qingmeibang park has opened a nickel electroplating production line with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons, achieving a nickel plate product purity of over 99.97%, contributing to a total global production capacity of 60,000 tons for Greenme [5][6] - Tianqi Lithium's battery-grade lithium hydroxide project, with a total investment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan, has been completed and put into production in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone [7] - Tibet Mining's battery-grade lithium carbonate project has officially commenced production, utilizing a complex membrane separation and MVR lithium extraction process, marking a significant achievement in challenging high-altitude conditions [8] Equipment - Mannesmann has completed the dual-line product layout for solid-state batteries, with multiple devices shipped and customer validation achieved [10] Battery Recycling - A project for processing waste lithium batteries has been publicly announced, aiming to handle approximately 11,000 tons of waste batteries annually using a low-temperature physical crushing technology developed by Southern University of Science and Technology, which avoids the pollution and high energy consumption associated with traditional methods [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the upcoming CINE2025 Solid-State Battery Exhibition and Industry Annual Conference scheduled for November 6-8, 2025, in Guangzhou, which aims to showcase advancements in solid-state battery technology and industry developments [2][3]. Event Details - The event is organized by Qidian Solid-State Battery, Qidian Lithium Battery, and SSBA Solid-State Battery Alliance, with Ru Tian Technology as the main sponsor [2]. - The scale of the event includes over 200 exhibitors, more than 2,000 participating companies, and around 20,000 professional attendees [2]. - Concurrent activities include the 2025 Qidian Solid-State Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony and the SSBA Solid-State Battery Industry Alliance Council [2]. Industry Developments - Tibet Mining Development Co., Ltd. announced the successful completion of a 120-hour functional assessment for its lithium carbonate project at the Zabuye Salt Lake, marking the start of large-scale production [3]. - The Zabuye Salt Lake is noted as the world's third-largest and Asia's largest lithium salt lake, with proven lithium reserves of 1.841 million tons and a lithium concentration second only to Chile's Atacama Salt Lake [3]. - The project utilizes a "membrane separation + MVR" process, significantly reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions while shortening the production cycle from 18 months to 3 months [3]. - The launch of this project is expected to enhance China's lithium resource self-sufficiency, as Tibet's salt lake lithium resources account for 33% of the national total [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [66]. Core Views - Recent disruptions in copper mining, particularly the mudslide incident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, have raised concerns about copper supply, potentially leading to price increases as demand peaks in the industrial metals sector [5][57]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to support metal prices, particularly as the domestic industrial metal demand season approaches [5][59]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various metal markets, with copper prices reaching $10,275 per ton and gold prices increasing to $3,780.50 per ounce as of September 25, 2025 [24][36]. Market Review - As of September 25, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 1.28% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.28 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [12]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals industry has risen by 56.32%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has increased by 39.58% [12]. - The energy metals sector has shown a notable increase of 4.68% in the last two weeks, while the small metals sector has decreased by 5.42% [19][18]. Price Analysis - As of September 25, 2025, the following prices were recorded: LME copper at $10,275/ton, LME aluminum at $2,664/ton, LME lead at $2,009/ton, LME zinc at $2,922.50/ton, LME nickel at $15,240/ton, and LME tin at $34,390/ton [24][58]. - Gold prices have increased by $264.4 since the beginning of September, with COMEX silver also showing a rise of $4.72 [36][59]. - The report notes a decline in rare earth prices, with the rare earth price index at 217.37, down 9.56 from the beginning of September [42][60]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Xingye Silver Tin (000426) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [5][59]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining (601899) is recommended due to its potential for growth amid rising gold prices [59]. - For small metals, companies like Xiamen Tungsten (600549), China Rare Earth (000831), and Jieli Permanent Magnet (300748) are highlighted for their market positions [61].

Core Viewpoint - The first large-scale lithium extraction project from a salt lake in Tibet has officially commenced production, marking a significant milestone for the company and the industry [1][5]. Company Summary - The project, located in the Zabuye salt lake, has a designed annual production capacity of 9,600 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate, 2,400 tons of industrial-grade lithium carbonate, 156,000 tons of potassium chloride, and 200 tons of rubidium and cesium mixed salt [1][7]. - The project was initially planned to be completed by July 2023 but faced delays due to various issues, including construction violations, and only entered trial production in June 2024 [4][9]. - The company estimates that the new production capacity could generate over 1 billion yuan in annual revenue, which is crucial given the current downturn in the lithium industry [3][8]. Industry Summary - The Zabuye project is the first large-scale industrial facility globally to utilize membrane separation and MVR technology for lithium extraction, indicating a technological advancement in the industry [7]. - The domestic market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is currently around 73,700 yuan per ton, while potassium chloride is priced at approximately 3,100 yuan per ton, suggesting a potential project value of about 1.192 billion yuan upon full capacity [7][8]. - The overall development of salt lake resources in Tibet is lagging behind that of Qinghai, but with the launch of projects like Zabuye, there is potential for accelerated scaling in the region, aiming for a combined capacity of over 80,000 tons of lithium salts in the medium to long term [11][12].

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector experienced significant fluctuations, with companies like Zhezhong Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit up, and Fangyuan Co., Ltd. previously reaching a 20% limit up [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as Xinwangda, Zhongwei Co., Ltd., Huayou Cobalt, and Tibet Mining, also showed notable gains [1]