证券研究报告：证券Ⅱ|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-02 行业投资评级 中性|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 6667.88 | | 52 周最高 | 7730.11 | | 52 周最低 | 5627.38 | 行业相对指数表现 -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王泽军 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110003 Email:wangzejun@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《资本补充重启与基本面强化或驱动 券商稳健复苏 v》 - 2026.02.24 （1）短期资金面保持极宽松状态。3 个月 SHIBOR 自 2026 年初以 来持续稳定在 1.60%左右的低位，本周更是进一步微降至 1.57%（2 月 26 日-28 日）。当前利率水平较 2025 年同期（约 1.70-1.80%）有所下 行，较 2024 年同期（约 2.40%）大幅下降。宽松的 ...

2月11日晚间，浙商证券公告称，收到实际控制人浙江省交通投资集团有限公司文件，决定任命现任浙商证 券党委委员、副总裁程景东为公司党委副书记，并提名为董事、总裁人选。 浙商证券称，将按照相关法律法规和《公司章程》等有关规定，尽快履行董事选举程序及总裁聘任程序。 券商中国记者了解到，此前浙商证券已在内部公示了新总裁人选，公示时间至2月9日。截至目前，钱文海已董 事长、总裁"一肩挑"近四个月。考虑到春节假期等影响，若要在业内通常沿用的6个月期限内完成交接，眼下 确实到了提名新总裁的时候。 新总裁呼之欲出 2025年10月，浙商证券公告，时任公司总裁钱文海正式履行董事长、法定代表人等职务，同时兼任总裁、代行 财务负责人，至今已过去约4个月。 根据2022年4月起施行的《证券基金经营机构董事、监事、高级管理人员及从业人员监督管理办法》，当证券 基金经营机构董事长、总经理、合规负责人和分支机构负责人因故不能履行职务的，相关人员代为履行职务应 当谨慎勤勉尽责，且时间不得超过6个月。 此次被提名为总裁的程景东，已深耕金融行业逾三十年，职业生涯横跨银行、投行、法律等多个关键领域，具 备全方位、复合型的专业能力与丰富的综合管理经 ...

数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证全指证券公司指数前十大权重股分别为东方财富、中信证券、国 泰海通、华泰证券、广发证券、招商证券、东方证券、兴业证券、申万宏源、中金公司，前十大权重股 合计占比60.66%。 2026年2月4日午后，证券行业红盘震荡，截至13:09，中证全指证券公司指数上涨0.30%，成分股华林证 券上涨3.20%，国泰海通上涨1.64%，东吴证券上涨1.52%，华泰证券上涨1.06%，国信证券上涨0.90%。 数据显示，多家头部券商2025年业绩大幅预喜，中信证券全年归母净利润同比增长38.46%，国泰海通 预计同比增长111%至115%，国联民生更达406%。中航证券指出，在监管明确鼓励整合背景下，并购已 成为券商实现高质量发展的有效路径，有望进一步强化头部优势。 中邮证券分析认为，券商板块驱动逻辑高度一致：权益市场回暖带动交投活跃度提升，日均股基成交额 达3.7万亿元、两融余额稳守2.74万亿元高位；叠加资本市场改革深化政策红利释放，共同支撑经纪与自 营业务双轮增长。尽管板块短期跑输大盘，但当前估值显著滞后于盈利修复节奏，基本面与估值错配特 征突出。 证券ETF嘉实(562870) ...

2026年1月7日开盘，券商指数（886054.WI）略有下跌。在此之前，5日、6日券商指数分别收涨 1.83%、4.15%。作为新的一年的头两个交易日，券商板块强势迎来"开门红"。 "从这方面可以发现，A股和H股的比价效应开始显现。即，投资者若购买A+H股上市公司，应该兼顾考 虑A/H股溢价率。如果港股低估程度大，则港股会优先吸纳资金量，涨幅也会更大。"许琼娜提示H股内 资上市券商在2025年的表现更能体现板块的价值重估过程，而这轮价值重估中，2025年券商的并购重组 预期已参与定价。 回顾2025年全年，A股市场活跃，"牛市旗手"券商板块的表现曾备受期待。但实际上，Wind数据显示， 券商板块整体跑输，券商指数仅获得4.05%的全年涨幅，远远落后于上证指数、沪深300等。 在2025年A股整体活跃、券商并购加速推进的背景下，为何出现券商板块整体表现的疲弱？如今又为何 出现行情变化？2026年券商还有哪些并购预期？板块有哪些表现机会？ 多位业内人士表示，券商属于牛市周期股，跟随此轮慢牛属性，或存在后半程发力、"绵长"上行的趋 势。而2026年券商并购预期还将持续，如跨区并购、区域并购、同一资本系并购的案例还 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions in the Chinese securities industry, highlighting significant cases and the regulatory environment that encourages the formation of influential financial institutions by 2025 [1]. Group 1: Major Mergers and Acquisitions - Guolian Minsheng Securities officially rebranded after merging, reporting a revenue of 4.011 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.127 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 269.4% and 1185.19% respectively [2]. - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, which became Guotai Haitong, is noted as the largest A+H market merger in Chinese capital market history, with Guotai Haitong achieving a net profit of 15.737 billion yuan in the first half of the year, surpassing CITIC Securities [4]. - The merger between Zhejiang Securities and Guodu Securities is progressing, with Zhejiang Securities establishing control over Guodu Securities through a series of share acquisitions [5][6]. Group 2: Regulatory Approvals and Market Impact - The merger of Xibu Securities and Guorong Securities received regulatory approval, with Xibu Securities planning to acquire a 64.5961% stake for 3.3217 yuan per share, totaling 3.825 billion yuan [8]. - The acquisition of Wanhe Securities by Guosen Securities was approved, with Guosen Securities aiming to gain control over Wanhe Securities, which has significantly smaller assets and profits compared to Guosen [9][10]. - Central Huijin's stake in CICC will increase to 1.936 billion shares post-merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, maintaining its status as the controlling shareholder [13].

在金融强国建设战略指引下，这场自上而下的行业整合，正书写着中国投行高质量发展的新篇章。 展望2026年，作为"十五五"开局之年，券商并购将以政策引导和市场化主导双轮驱动，呈现头部加速整 合、中小特色化集中。风险与机遇并存，目标是打造三至五家具有国际影响力的头部投行，行业头部集 中度大幅提升。 大整合元年 2025年，对券商并购来说，是真正的"大整合元年"。相比2024年，2025年万亿级合并出现，且速度更 快，目的更明确，对标国际一流投行。不仅如此，标志性案例覆盖行业各梯队，形成全方位、多层次整 合态势。 华夏时报记者 王兆寰 北京报道 岁聿云暮，2025年中国证券行业在并购重组浪潮中完成历史性跨越。从国泰君安与海通证券的强强联 手，到中金公司（601995）"三合一"的创新整合，一系列重磅案例重塑行业格局，标志着券业发展从规 模扩张向质量提升的深刻转型。 区域与特色券商的整合同样精彩纷呈。8月，国信证券（002736）收购万和证券获证监会核准，深投控 成为实控人，为区域性券商整合提供范本；西部证券（002673）入主国融证券获批，陕投集团拿下证 券、基金、期货控股权，西北区域协同版图进一步明晰。 中小券商中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a 12-month target price of RMB 54.00, indicating an expected return exceeding market expectations by more than 6% [5][18]. Core Insights - The merger between the company and Dongxing and Xinda is aimed at enhancing industry concentration and strengthening the leading position through resource integration [1]. - The merger is expected to significantly increase the company's net capital from RMB 46 billion to RMB 94.3 billion, moving it from the 11th to the 5th position among the top ten brokerages [2]. - The total number of branches is projected to increase by 78% to 436, enhancing regional network layout and wealth management capabilities [3]. - The merger will address the company's investment banking shortcomings and effectively increase asset management scale by 18% to RMB 800 billion [4]. Summary by Sections Merger Background - The merger is driven by the need for high-quality industry development through resource integration and business complementarity between the companies involved [1]. Capital Enhancement - Successful merger will double the company's net capital, significantly improving its capital leverage ratio to around 20% and enhancing capital utilization efficiency [2]. Regional Network and Wealth Management - The merger will increase the total number of retail clients by 52% and enhance the company's market share in wealth management, with a projected increase in transaction revenue [3]. Investment Banking and Asset Management - The merger will fill gaps in investment banking services, particularly for small and medium enterprises, and increase asset management resources significantly [4].

Core Insights - The Chinese securities industry is undergoing a significant transformation marked by mergers and acquisitions, shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement by 2025 [2][3][4] Group 1: Industry Trends - The integration wave in the securities industry is driven by top-down policies and market forces, aiming to create three to five internationally influential leading investment banks [3][4] - 2025 is identified as the "Year of Major Integration," with a notable increase in large-scale mergers compared to 2024, targeting alignment with top international investment banks [4][5] - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has established a benchmark for "super aircraft carrier" institutions, while CICC's "three-in-one" merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities will exceed total assets of 1 trillion yuan [4][5] Group 2: Regional and Small Firm Integrations - Regional and specialized securities firms are also experiencing significant mergers, such as Guosen Securities acquiring Wanhua Securities and Xibu Securities taking over Guorong Securities [5] - The integration of small firms like Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities has resulted in a remarkable 345.3% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market has responded positively to these mergers, with significant stock price increases for major firms like Huatai Securities and GF Securities prior to the announcement of CICC's merger plan [5][9] - Analysts predict that the ongoing mergers will enhance competition among the top ten securities firms, with CICC's merger potentially igniting a wave of horizontal integration across the industry [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The main lines of mergers in 2026 will include consolidations under the same controlling entity, regional integrations, and acquisitions aimed at filling operational gaps [8] - The overall market environment is expected to improve, with projections indicating a 51% year-on-year increase in net profit for the securities sector in 2025 [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][61]. Core Viewpoints - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to significantly enhance CICC's capital strength, business network, and overall competitiveness, aligning with policy directions and creating long-term value [1][11]. - Post-merger, CICC's total assets are projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a 48% increase in net assets attributable to shareholders, elevating its industry ranking to 4th place [1][12]. - The merger is anticipated to boost CICC's revenue by approximately 32% and net profit by about 45% by 2025, improving its industry rankings to 3rd and 6th respectively [1][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers create value through reasonable valuation, advantageous pricing, and potential synergy from integration [7][10]. - The merger aligns with national policies aimed at developing leading investment banks and enhancing resource integration capabilities [11]. Financial Performance and Projections - CICC's revenue is expected to grow from 22.99 billion yuan in 2023 to 43.56 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][63]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 6.16 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.40 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 44.6% in 2025 [4][63]. Business Synergies and Integration - The merger will enhance capital utilization efficiency, with CICC's leverage potentially increasing from an average of 5.4 times to a higher level post-merger [2][21]. - Wealth management is identified as a key area for synergy, with an expected increase in the number of business outlets by approximately 80%, reaching over 400 [2][37]. - The investment banking and asset management sectors will benefit from the integration of teams and resources, enhancing overall capabilities [2][46]. Strategic Development - CICC aims to become a comprehensive modern investment bank by 2025, focusing on customer-centric services and global expansion [3][61]. - The merger is seen as a catalyst for accelerating CICC's strategic goals and enhancing its competitive edge and international influence [3][61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the merger and acquisition (M&A) of CICC with Dongxing Securities and China Cinda Securities is expected to significantly enhance the overall strength of the company, with anticipated synergies primarily in expanding the customer base and improving asset efficiency [1][2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CICC with a target price of HKD 27.20, corresponding to a 1.2x price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 [1] - The merger is expected to elevate CICC's ranking in the industry from 8th to 3rd or 4th in terms of comprehensive strength, with projected net revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, total assets, and net assets ranking 3rd, 6th, 4th, and 4th respectively post-merger [2] Group 2 - The share exchange plan is based on the average price of the 20 trading days prior to the pricing benchmark, with Dongxing Securities having a 26% premium and no additional fundraising involved [1] - The post-merger shareholder structure will see Central Huijin holding 24.44% of CICC, China Cinda 16.71%, and China Orient along with its concerted parties 8.05%, all committing to a 36-month lock-up period [2] - The merger is expected to enhance the self-operated income ranking to 3rd and improve capital utilization efficiency, with CICC's leverage ratio at 5.4x compared to Dongxing Securities at 3.2x and China Cinda at 3.8x [2]