格隆汇1月26日丨中国稀土(000831.SZ)发布2025年年度业绩预告，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 1.43亿元至1.85亿元，上年同期为亏损2.87亿元，同比扭亏为盈。上半年，稀土市场行情整体上涨，公 司强化市场研判，调整营销策略，把握采销节奏，实现销售同比增长，有效提升经营创效水平。同时根 据会计准则要求对部分计提的存货跌价准备予以冲回，对上半年利润产生一定正向影响。但下半年，受 市场环境、供需调节等因素影响，部分中重稀土产品价格下行，特别是进入第四季度中重稀土产品价格 下跌明显。根据会计准则要求，第四季度计提存货跌价准备金额环比增加，冲减了公司部分利润。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月26日，中国稀土公告，预计2025年年度净利润为1.43亿元至1.85亿元，上年同期 为-2.87亿元。2025年是公司在高质量发展的征程上迈出坚实步伐的一年。上半年，稀土市场行情整体 上涨，公司强化市场研判，调整营销策略，把握采销节奏，实现销售同比增长，有效提升经营创效水 平。同时根据会计准则要求对部分计提的存货跌价准备予以冲回，对上半年利润产生一定正向影响。但 下半年，受市场环境、供需调节等因素影响，部分中重稀土产品价格下行，特别是进入第四季度中重稀 土产品价格下跌明显。根据会计准则要求，第四季度计提存货跌价准备金额环比增加，冲减了公司部分 利润。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

中国稀土公告，预计2025年年度净利润为1.43亿元至1.85亿元，上年同期为-2.87亿元。2025年是公司在 高质量发展的征程上迈出坚实步伐的一年。上半年，稀土市场行情整体上涨，公司强化市场研判，调整 营销策略，把握采销节奏，实现销售同比增长，有效提升经营创效水平。同时根据会计准则要求对部分 计提的存货跌价准备予以冲回，对上半年利润产生一定正向影响。但下半年，受市场环境、供需调节等 因素影响，部分中重稀土产品价格下行，特别是进入第四季度中重稀土产品价格下跌明显。根据会计准 则要求，第四季度计提存货跌价准备金额环比增加，冲减了公司部分利润。 ...

（一）业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日 （二）业绩预告情况： 证券代码：000831 证券简称：中国稀土 公告编号：2026-001 中国稀土集团资源科技股份有限公司 2025 年年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 单位：万元 项 目 本报告期 上年同期 归属于上市公司股东的 净利润 14,262.02 ～ 18,462.02 -28,690.71 扣除非经常性损益后的 净利润 13,304.21 ～ 17,204.21 -14,469.94 基本每股收益（元/股） 0.1344 ～ 0.1740 -0.2704 备金额环比增加，冲减了公司部分利润。总体而言，报告期内，公司聚焦年度 发展目标，有效应对各种冲击挑战，积极主动作为，全力以赴稳增长、提效益、 促创新，生产经营总体稳中有进，各项工作扎实有序推进。 一是向生产经营要效益。全面推动生产工艺和生产过程优化升级，推进技 改升级项目，加大自动化、数智化改造力度，通过精细化管理和全流程对标管 控生产成本和管理成本，有效实 ...

Summary of China Rare Earths 2026 Outlook Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Rare Earths - **Key Players**: Northern Rare Earth High-Tech (NRE), China Rare Earth Resources and Technology (CRE), JL Mag Rare-Earth Core Insights - **Supply Discipline**: China's rare earth supply discipline has transitioned to a structural level due to the extension of smelting and separation quotas to imported ores starting in 2025, reducing supply elasticity across the system. SMM anticipates a ~10% year-over-year growth in China's supply for 2026E [2][3] - **Imports**: US-origin rare earth ore imports have dropped to nearly zero since August 2025, following MP Materials' export suspension to China. This supply gap has been compensated by increased imports from Africa, while Myanmar's supply share is expected to decline due to rising tax uncertainty and political risks [3] - **Exports**: SMM forecasts approximately 9% year-over-year growth in exports for 2026E [4] Recycling and Demand - **Recycling**: Recycling has become a significant marginal supplier, with recycled PrNd accounting for ~25% of total PrNd supply in 2025, projected to rise to ~35% in 2026 due to planned capacity additions [4] - **Demand Growth**: SMM expects magnet demand to grow by 15-18% year-over-year in 2026E, driven by the adoption of NEVs (20% production growth), wind power (10% installation growth), air conditioners (11% production growth), and industrial robotics (8-10% growth). Humanoid robots are still in early stages, contributing less than 3% to total demand [5] Pricing Outlook - **Pricing Expectations**: SMM anticipates a slightly tight balance in 2026E, with potential short-term price spikes reaching ~Rmb700k/t. HREE pricing is more influenced by policy than supply dynamics [8] Company Valuations - **Northern Rare Earth (NRE)**: Valued at Rmb72 using a P/B-based methodology, reflecting a 9.5x target 2026E P/B, which is a +2.0 standard deviation premium to its historical average. The valuation considers structural demand growth and tighter resource control [9] - **China Rare Earth (CRE)**: Valued at Rmb61.6 with a 12x target 2026E P/B, set at +1.5 standard deviations above its historical average, reflecting similar structural factors as NRE [11] - **JL Mag Rare-Earth**: Valued at Rmb32.6 for JL Mag-A and HK$25.3 for JL Mag-H based on 2027E earnings, applying lower P/E multiples to account for potential downside risks in the robotics sector [14][16] Risks - **Key Risks for NRE and CRE**: Include demand growth uncertainty in downstream applications, unexpected capacity expansions outside China, trade barriers, price volatility, policy adjustments in China, emergence of alternative materials, and sector consolidation activities [10][12] Conclusion The rare earth sector is poised for growth driven by structural changes in supply discipline, increasing demand from various industries, and a significant role of recycling. However, companies must navigate geopolitical risks and market volatility as they position themselves for the future.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, providing price support, with antimony ingot prices at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant global supply concentration in China [10][20] - Tin prices are supported by overseas supply uncertainties, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to tighten further, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony supply remains tight, with domestic prices expected to rise due to export restrictions and seasonal supply issues [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and supply uncertainties, particularly regarding the recovery of key lithium mines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market is facing supply tightening due to export bans and geopolitical factors, with China maintaining a dominant position [10][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 0.25% to $12,840.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price rose by 0.57% to ¥101,300 per ton [1] - Copper concentrate processing fees fell to -$49.79 per ton, and national copper inventory increased by 2.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 203,000 tons [1][13] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 2.72 percentage points to 58.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 15.87% [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 0.29% to $3,137.5 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.53% to ¥24,300 per ton [2][14] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell by 6.3 percentage points to 51.1% due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2][14] - Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 743,000 tons [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.88% to $4,938.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 4.86 tons to 1,079.66 tons [3][15] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [3][15] - The 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95% [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.25% to ¥672,700 per ton [4][36] - December exports of rare earth permanent magnets increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in exports [4][36] - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price momentum due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 5.54% this week, supported by tight supply conditions [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - The price of ammonium paratungstate rose by 6.06% to ¥790,500 per ton [4][38] Group 6: Tin - Tin prices increased by 2.19% to ¥423,700 per ton, with inventory rising by 1.79% to 9,720 tons [4][38] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4][38] - The demand outlook is positive due to recovery in semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [4][38] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 0.8% to ¥159,500 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 2.0% to ¥156,900 per ton [4][63] - Lithium production decreased slightly, with total output at 22,200 tons, down by 40 tons [4][63] - The market is experiencing strong demand, with signs of pre-holiday stocking [4][63] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 3.7% to ¥437,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 1.5% to $25.75 per pound [5][65] - Supply tightness is expected to persist, with domestic prices showing upward momentum [5][65] - The market structure remains tight due to limited liquidity and long transportation cycles [5][65]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The supply-demand tension continues, with tungsten and tin prices breaking historical highs [4] - Rare earth elements are experiencing a supply tightness, leading to increased prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton [12] - Molybdenum prices are expected to stabilize due to cost support and improved supply-demand dynamics, despite a recent decline [23] - Tungsten prices are at historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases in long-term contracts [30] - Tin prices are strong due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin rising by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton [33] - Antimony prices are fluctuating, awaiting signals for export recovery, with recent increases noted [42] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium decreased by 1.39% to 1,420,000 CNY/ton [12][4] - The supply side remains tight due to policy and supply constraints, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies has shifted from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices fell by 1.94% to 4,035 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron prices decreased by 1.90% to 258,500 CNY/ton [23] - The market sentiment is supported by a stabilization in international molybdenum oxide prices and reduced mine shipments [23] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 11.43% to 536,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.06% to 790,000 CNY/ton [30] - Supply is tightening due to reduced mining quotas and slower production rates, while domestic demand remains stable [30] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 21.73% to 54,200 USD/ton [33] - Supply disruptions from key mining regions and strong demand from traditional and emerging sectors are driving price increases [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.26% to 160,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 1.42% to 142,500 CNY/ton [42] - The supply remains tight, and demand is expected to decline as the market approaches the Lunar New Year [42]

Group 1 - The core message of the news is that Trump has issued an ultimatum to countries with strategic minerals, demanding they sever ties with China regarding rare earth supply chains within 180 days, or face high tariffs from the U.S. [1][3] - The announcement emphasizes supply chain diversification and national security, but it is primarily aimed at isolating China, which controls over 70% of global rare earth processing capacity [3][5] - The 180-day deadline coincides with the U.S. midterm elections, suggesting that Trump aims to leverage a tough stance against China to boost his political visibility and gain voter support [5][15] Group 2 - The U.S. is pressuring allies like Australia, Canada, and Malaysia to comply, which could force them to break long-standing agreements with China, risking significant economic losses [5][15] - The U.S. strategy involves having Australia mine rare earths, ship them to Malaysia for initial processing, and then send them to Japan for further refinement, which increases costs and delivery times [9][11] - Trump's approach includes setting price floors for rare earth products to undercut Chinese prices, which could lead to increased costs for manufacturers in Europe and Japan, ultimately affecting consumers [13][15] Group 3 - Allies are caught in a dilemma, as complying with U.S. demands would alienate China, while non-compliance risks tariffs and sanctions [15][16] - The U.S. lacks the necessary processing technology and complete supply chain for rare earths, which makes the ultimatum unrealistic, as the global supply chain is deeply integrated with China's capabilities [11][16] - The competition in the rare earth sector is fundamentally about technology and capability, with China having a significant advantage due to decades of experience [16]

Core Viewpoint - The China Rare Earth Group emphasizes the importance of strategic leadership and innovation in its 2026 technology work conference, aiming to integrate economic and strategic values of rare earths while enhancing technological capabilities [1] Group 1: Strategic Goals - The company aims to play a leading role in three key areas by leveraging its position as a central enterprise [1] - It is committed to aligning its strategies with national development goals, focusing on the dual aspects of economic and strategic value in the rare earth sector [1] Group 2: Innovation and Reform - The company plans to deepen reforms and actively build an innovative ecosystem through the integration of five chains [1] - There is a focus on improving mechanisms for the transformation of results and sharing of benefits from innovations [1] Group 3: System Empowerment - The company intends to strengthen national strategic technological capabilities and implement a dual management mechanism [1] - It aims to establish a regular collaborative innovation network to foster a high-level innovation ecosystem [1]