Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown a mixed performance, with the small metals sector rising by 6.58% and the industrial metals sector declining by 3.49% in the past two weeks [3][12] - The rare earth and magnetic materials sector is experiencing a significant profit increase, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and price recovery [5][65] - Lithium prices continue to decline due to oversupply, but leading companies are expected to recover as high-cost production is phased out [66] Industry Performance Overview - As of July 17, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has decreased by 0.87% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.55 percentage points [12] - Year-to-date, the industry has increased by 20.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.55 percentage points, ranking first among 31 industries [12] - The small metals sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 24.87%, while the industrial metals sector has increased by 16.89% [18] Price Trends - As of July 17, 2025, LME copper is priced at $9,678 per ton, LME aluminum at $2,589 per ton, and LME nickel at $15,065 per ton [24] - The rare earth price index has risen to 192.03, with significant increases in prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide [42][65] - Lithium carbonate prices are stabilizing, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 64,800 yuan per ton [40][66] Company Performance Highlights - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit increase of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71% for the first half of 2025 [56] - Ningbo Yunsheng anticipates a net profit increase of 133.55% to 250.33% for the same period [57] - Xiamen Tungsten's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected at 19.178 billion yuan, with a net profit of 972 million yuan, a decrease of 4.41% year-on-year [52][67]

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and financial metrics of China Rare Earth, indicating a significant increase in stock price and a high PE ratio compared to industry averages [1][2] - On July 18, China Rare Earth closed at 40.1 yuan, up 5.58%, with a rolling PE ratio of 571.43 times and a total market capitalization of 42.555 billion yuan [1] - The company experienced a net inflow of main funds amounting to 51.847 million yuan on July 18, although it faced an overall outflow of 831.7437 million yuan over the past five days [1] Group 2 - China Rare Earth Group Resources Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in rare earth mining, processing, and production of rare earth oxides, along with technology research and consulting services [1] - The company reported a revenue of 728 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.32%, and a net profit of 72.6181 million yuan, up 125.15% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 9.77% [1] - The company has applied for 26 new patents, with 7 invention patents granted and 4 utility model patents [1]

7月18日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。有记者就印度外长访华及中国稀土（000831）出口管制 提问。林剑表示，关于外长访华中方已经发布了消息。关于稀土的出口管制问题，林剑强调，中方的相 关政策符合国际惯例，我们也愿同有关国家和地区继续加强出口管制领域的对话合作，共同维护全球产 供链的稳定与安全。(央视新闻) ...

早在2022年发布《关于加快建设全国统一电力市场体系的指导意见》以来，在构建全国统一电力市场体 系的总体要求下，电力行业加速市场化转型，体制机制不断创新，电力资源正逐步实现全国范围内的高 效流动与优化配置。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘昱汝 徐芸茜 北京报道 随后，工信部印发的《电力装备行业稳增长工作方案（2023—2024年）》明确指出，要发挥电力装备行 业带动作用，力争2023—2024年电力装备行业主营业务收入年均增速达9%以上。 随着A股上市公司上半年业绩预告陆续披露，市场表现亮点纷呈。据统计，共有79家央企控股上市公司 上半年业绩报喜。其中，32家公司实现归母净利润同比增长，22家公司实现扭亏，另有25家公司减亏。 从增幅来看，业绩增长的势头尤为强劲。19家央企控股上市公司的归母净利润预增上限超过100%，展 现出强劲的盈利能力。同时，多家央企也实现了大幅扭亏，为市场带来了积极信号。 从行业分布来看，电力装备、船舶制造、稀土等行业景气度高企。这些产业链上的相关上市公司业绩不 俗，为市场的整体表现增添了亮点。 科方得智库研究负责人张新原在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，央企上市公司 ...

近期，澳大利亚莱纳斯公司因宣布成功实现氧化镝的商业化生产而成为了业界焦点。与此同时，有关该公司挖角中国稀土技术团队的传闻甚嚣尘上，这一消 息迅速在各大媒体平台上发酵，引发了业界对于稀土资源全球竞争态势的广泛讨论。 然而，深入剖析这一事件背后，我们可以发现，所谓的"挖角"风波并不足以撼动中国在全球稀土领域的霸主地位。中国稀土行业人才济济，不仅拥有一大批 在矿山、冶炼、研发等关键环节深耕多年的资深工程师，还建立了完备的人才培养机制。每年，众多高校都会为稀土行业输送大批新生力量，老一辈专家与 年轻人才的"师徒传承"，确保了稀土技术的持续发展和经验的代代相传。 从技术层面而言，中国的稀土技术优势是经过数十年的积淀而形成的系统性优势。自徐光宪院士提出"串级萃取理论"以来，中国的稀土分离技术便奠定了世 界领先地位。如今，这一技术体系已经发展成为一条涵盖开采、分离、应用等各个环节的高效产业链，形成了一个闭环的稀土生态系统。 相比之下，澳大利亚的稀土产业链则显得相对松散。其稀土生产依赖于全球范围内的分工合作，矿石开采、分离、加工等环节分散在不同国家和地区，这不 仅增加了运输成本，还带来了诸多不确定性风险。尽管莱纳斯公司宣称已 ...

Group 1 - The rare earth sector has shown a strong upward trend, with the rare earth ETF (516780) experiencing a net inflow of 287 million yuan over seven consecutive trading days from July 9 to July 17, 2025, marking it as the only rare earth-themed ETF in the A-share market to achieve this [1][2] - As of July 17, 2025, the rare earth ETF (516780) reached a new high with 1.184 billion shares and a total scale of 1.452 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 30% growth in product scale since July [1][2] - The demand for rare earths is being driven by the growth in domestic industries such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and low-altitude economy, which is expected to enhance the profitability of companies within the industry [1][2] Group 2 - The prices of rare earth products, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, have increased, with the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide reaching 466,400 yuan per ton as of July 15, 2025, representing a 17.2% increase in the first half of the year [2] - The rare earth ETF (516780) tracks the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index, which includes companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications, with leading companies such as Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Aluminum among its top five constituents [2] - The management of the rare earth ETF, Huatai-PB Fund, has over 18 years of experience in ETF operations, with its ETFs collectively exceeding 500 billion yuan in scale, placing it in the top tier of the industry [2] Group 3 - The investment value of the rare earth sector is expected to further increase due to strong demand resilience and rising raw material prices, making the rare earth ETF (516780) an attractive option for investors [3] - Investors can also consider the connection funds (Class A: 014331/Class C: 014332) to capitalize on the recovery opportunities in the rare earth industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - Lynas Corporation from Australia has gained global attention by announcing its ability to commercially produce "dysprosium oxide" and reportedly recruiting a team from China's rare earth sector [1][5]. Group 1: Talent and Human Resources - The recruitment of a few individuals from China does not equate to a significant shift in the industry, as China's rare earth talent pool is vast and not defined by a single team [2][4]. - China has a robust talent cultivation mechanism, with universities continuously supplying new talent to the industry through hands-on training [4]. Group 2: Technological and Systemic Advantages - China's technological advantages are not limited to isolated points but encompass a comprehensive system developed over decades, starting from the "cascade extraction theory" established in the 1970s [7]. - The complete industrial chain in China allows for efficient processing from mining to application, which is a stark contrast to Australia's fragmented approach [10][12]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Australia's supply chain is vulnerable due to its reliance on global logistics, which can lead to high costs and risks if any part of the chain encounters issues [14]. - China, being the largest producer and reserve holder of rare earths, has strategic storage capabilities that can influence global market supply and pricing [16]. Group 4: Market Viability and Competition - The primary question remains: who will purchase the products produced by Lynas, given that China is the largest market for rare earth applications [18][21]. - China's established supply chain offers stability and cost-effectiveness, making it unlikely for businesses to switch to more expensive and longer supply routes from Australia [18][20]. Group 5: By-products and Economic Viability - China has a complete industrial chain that allows for the sale of by-products generated during rare earth processing, a capability that Australia lacks [23].

Group 1 - The rare earth sector has shown strong upward momentum since July, with significant stock price increases for companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth, and related ETFs also rising [1][3] - As of July 17, the Rare Metal ETF (561800) has increased by 1.17% on that day, over 8% in the past month, and more than 14% year-to-date, with Northern Rare Earth rising over 20% in the same month [1][3] - Northern Rare Earth's half-year performance forecast indicates a net profit growth of 1883% year-on-year, expected to reach 2.015 billion [3] Group 2 - The recent price increases in lithium carbonate and rare earth sectors are driven by multiple factors, including Northern Rare Earth's performance and a price adjustment announcement by Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth [3] - The U.S. company MP Materials announced a multi-billion dollar deal with the U.S. Department of Defense to expand rare earth production, which positively impacted the Rare Metal ETF, causing a single-day increase of over 3% [3] - The ETF manager noted that both lithium carbonate and rare earths benefit from accelerated adjustments in the fundamental market and strategic resource controls, leading to price increases [3][4] Group 3 - The outlook for the rare earth sector remains optimistic, with expectations of rising prices and sustained industry fundamentals [4] - The Rare Metal ETF (561800) closely tracks the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index, which includes up to 50 companies involved in rare metal mining, smelting, and processing, showing an annualized return of over 27% in the past year [4] - The dividend payout ratio for the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index in 2024 is projected to be as high as 52.30%, with 39 companies providing dividends, indicating attractive stable cash flow [4] Group 4 - The top ten holdings in the Rare Metal ETF include Northern Rare Earth, Salt Lake Co., Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, collectively accounting for 54.29% of the fund [4][6] - Northern Rare Earth leads in light rare earth quotas, with a significant profit increase due to rising rare earth concentrate prices, while Western Superconducting benefits from military material demand [6]

金融界7月17日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证稀土产业指数 (稀土产业，930598)上涨1.21%，报 1955.26点，成交额382.91亿元。 数据统计显示，中证稀土产业指数近一个月上涨6.32%，近三个月上涨20.10%，年至今上涨22.02%。 据了解，中证稀土产业指数选取涉及稀土开采、稀土加工、稀土贸易和稀土应用等业务相关上市公司证 券作为样本，以反映稀土产业上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2011年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点 为基点。 从中证稀土产业指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比52.77%、深圳证券交易所占比 46.62%、北京证券交易所占比0.61%。 从中证稀土产业指数持仓样本的行业来看，原材料占比66.06%、工业占比26.77%、信息技术占比 7.17%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。每次调整的样本比例一般不超过20%。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本 定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临 时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 ...