股权激励到位，新品积极布局。公司管理层稳定性得到验证，并成功实施股权激励，激励效果显现，既 重视短期兑现，亦潜心布局长远。公司近年来加大研发投入，推新面市杏仁奶、杏仁大咖、巴旦木奶、 有杏寻茶植物奶茶、汽心动力果汁碳酸饮料和草本养生水，研发储备燕窝杏仁奶和特色品类/地域性饮 料。 随着草本养生水市场兴起，公司起步及时，已在北方市场加快铺市，同时借力承德露露"南拓"战略的资 源优势，依托杭州生产基地辐射江浙沪皖等核心区域，覆盖更多消费场景，随着市场投入同步加大，销 售有望起量。 事件：公司发布2024年报及 2025一季报。24年公司实现营收32.9亿元，同比+11.3%；归母净利润6.7 亿 元，同比+4.4%；25Q1 实现营收10.0 亿元，同比-18.4%；归母净利润2.2 亿元，同比- 12.53%。公司拟 向全体股东每10 股派发现金红利人民币3元（含税），合计派发现金红利人民币3.15 亿元（含税），现 金分红率47%。公司24 年股权激励和员工持股计划目标值达成，受春节错期影响，24Q4 收入同比高 增，25Q1 同比下滑，24Q4+25Q1 收入合计同比基本持平。草本养生水系列新品推出后续有望 ...

仅一家营收增长 过去一年，植物蛋白饮料上市"四巨头"的成绩单半忧半喜。 2024年报告期内，拥有"六个核桃"等知名品牌的养元饮品实现营业收入约为60.58亿元，同比下降1.69%；实现归母净利润约为17.22 亿元，同比增长17.35%。拥有"维维豆奶"和"天山雪牛奶"两个品牌的维维股份实现营业收入约为36.56亿元，同比下降9.4%；实现归 母净利润约为4.11亿元，同比增长96.26%。以"露露杏仁露"为大单品的承德露露实现营业收入约为32.87亿元，同比增长11.26%；实 现归母净利润约为6.66亿元，同比增长4.41%。水果罐头和椰子水"两条腿"走路的欢乐家实现营业收入约为18.55亿元，同比下降 3.53%；实现归母净利润约为1.47亿元，同比下降47.06%。 对于植物蛋白饮料上市"四巨头"去年的业绩表现，中国食品产业分析师朱丹蓬向北京商报记者分析，"在整个中国饮料行业里，每年 都有不同的明星和风口品类，蚕食其他品类的增长。近年来随着无糖茶、椰子水的兴起，对于植物饮料市场份额的蚕食非常明显"。 具体来看，养元饮品增利不增收，主要是核桃乳和其他植物饮料两个产品类别下滑。植物蛋白饮料受淡旺季影响非常 ...

承德露露 000848.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 杏仁露稳健增长，24 年圆满收官 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报及 25 年一季报，对 25、26 年下调收入、上调毛利率。我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.69、0.75、0.79 元（原预测 25-26 年为 0.75、0.86 元）。结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025年的 17倍市盈率， 对应目标价为 11.73 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 原材料价格波动、新品放量不及预期、市场开拓不及预期、产能利用率不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,955 | 3,287 | 3,362 | 3,567 | 3,750 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 844 | 880 | 960 | 1,041 | 1,0 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 000848.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 9.92 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 承德露露 2024 年年报及 2025年 1季报业绩 点评：受春节错期影响，公司季度间业 绩波动较大，若将 4Q24 及 1Q25 合并 来看，整体业绩表现稳健，受益成本红 利释放，1Q25 毛利率提升幅度较大。 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 10.3 13.6 14.3 9.6 相对深圳成指 12.0 20.5 17.9 2.6 (21%) (12%) (3%) 6% 15% 24% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 承德露露 深圳成指 | 发行股数 (百万) | | 1,052.55 | | --- | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | | 1,039.52 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | | 10,441.34 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [1][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's revenue remains stable, with almond costs decreasing, which releases profit margins. For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit of 666 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.41% [7][9]. - The company has set ambitious growth targets for 2025, with projected revenue growth rates of 5%, 6%, and 4% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profit growth rates of 7%, 8%, and 6% [9][10]. Financial Data Summary - The total share capital of the company is 1,052.55 million shares, with a total market capitalization of 10,441.34 million yuan [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.68 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.61 [10]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 20.3%, with a gross margin of 40.9% [8][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 315 million yuan, representing a payout ratio of 47% [8]. Business Performance - In terms of business segments, the almond beverage series generated revenue of 3.19 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, while the walnut and almond milk series showed varied performance [7]. - The company has expanded its market presence, with a net increase of 56 distributors in the northern region, contributing to a revenue increase of 12% in that area [7]. Future Outlook - The company is actively developing new herbal health drink products, leveraging its strategic resources to penetrate core regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Anhui [9]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's ability to stabilize its main business and continue benefiting from cost reductions in almond procurement [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.287 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666 million, up 4.41% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.128 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.69%, while the net profit was 247 million, increasing by 26.95% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.002 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.36%, and the net profit was 215 million, down 12.53% year-on-year [1] - Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, the combined revenue for Q4 and Q1 was 2.13 billion, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8% [2] Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from almond milk, nut walnut, and almond milk series was 3.19 billion, 80 million, and 10 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +11%, -2%, and +249% [2] - The sales volume of almond milk reached 330,000 tons, with a volume increase of 11.5% and stable price per ton [2] Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from the northern, central, and other regions was 2.99 billion, 190 million, and 110 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12%, 9%, and 3% [2] - The northern region saw a strengthening of its market position, with a net increase of 56 distributors [2] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 20.3% [4] - The gross profit margin was stable, decreasing by 0.5 percentage points to 40.9% [4] - The increase in almond procurement costs due to weather conditions in 2023 led to a rise of over 30% in prices from Q4 2023, but prices dropped by over 30% starting Q4 2024 due to significant production increases [4] Cost and Expense Analysis - The sales expense ratio increased by 1.1 percentage points due to investments in e-commerce operations, new market development, and new product launches [5] - The management expense ratio rose by 0.6 percentage points due to increased share-based payment expenses [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch new herbal health drink products, leveraging the resource advantages of its "southward expansion" strategy [6] - The main business is expected to stabilize, with continued cost benefits from almonds anticipated in the first half of 2025 [6] - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5%, 6%, and 4% respectively, with net profit growth of 7%, 8%, and 6% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [1][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable revenue performance with a projected revenue of 3.45 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.95% [7][10]. - The company has achieved its revenue incentive targets for 2024, with a net profit of 666.24 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.41% [9][10]. - The report anticipates continued benefits from reduced almond costs, which are expected to enhance profitability in 2025 [8][9]. Financial Data Summary - Total A-share capital is 1,052.55 million shares, with a total market capitalization of 10,441.34 million yuan [2]. - The company's net asset per share is 3.45 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio stands at 20.71% [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.68 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.61 [10][12]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 3.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.26% [10]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 20.27%, with a net profit of 666.17 million yuan [11][12]. - The report indicates that the company plans to launch new herbal health drink products, which may further stabilize its main business [9]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in sales in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a revenue of 1.128 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 22.69% [7]. - The report notes that the company has added 56 new distributors in the northern region, reinforcing its market presence [7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of 5% in 2025, with net profit growth projected at 7% [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued cost benefits from almond procurement, which could enhance profit margins in the upcoming quarters [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][16]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 3.287 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666 million yuan in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.26% and 4.41% respectively [4][10]. - The report highlights a slight decline in gross margin to 40.94% in 2024, primarily due to increased procurement costs from reduced almond production caused by adverse weather conditions [4]. - The company has shown a significant improvement in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 39.83%, attributed to a more than 30% decrease in almond procurement prices [5]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 9.69 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 10.4 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.44 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.128 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.69% [5]. - The company plans to distribute dividends amounting to 315 million yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 47% [4]. - The company has developed 141 transportation hub stores and 203 school stores in 2024, indicating a focus on expanding its distribution network [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.452 billion yuan, 3.802 billion yuan, and 4.007 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 714 million yuan, 781 million yuan, and 813 million yuan [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.68 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 0.77 yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 14, 13, and 13 times [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10][16] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 3.287 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666 million yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 11.26% and 4.41% respectively [4][12] - The company has a stable core business in almond milk, with a focus on positive changes driven by incentives [4] - The company is enhancing its market presence in southern regions and developing new products, which are expected to contribute to growth [10] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 9.69 yuan [3] - Total shares: 1.053 billion, circulating shares: 1.040 billion [3] - Total market capitalization: 10.4 billion yuan [3] - 52-week high/low: 10.14/6.80 yuan [3] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 25.1% [3] - Price-to-earnings ratio: 15.44 [3] - Major shareholder: Wanxiang San Nong Group Co., Ltd. [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.128 billion yuan, with a net profit of 247 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 22.69% for both revenue and net profit [5] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 improved to 39.83%, driven by a significant decrease in almond procurement prices [5] - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 3.452 billion yuan and a net profit of 714 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 5.01% and 7.15% [12][15] Product and Market Development - In 2024, revenue from almond milk, nut walnut, almond milk, and others was 3.188 billion yuan, 85 million yuan, 12 million yuan, and 3 million yuan respectively, with almond milk showing a year-on-year growth of 11.38% [6] - The company expanded its distribution network by developing 141 transportation hub stores and 203 school stores in 2024 [6] - The company has increased its advertising expenses by 38.95% to 206 million yuan, reflecting its investment in e-commerce and new market development [4]

东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-04-25 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250424："十四五"收官之年的机遇与挑战 一、十四五"规划目标哪些仍待完成？ 1.在经济社会发展主要指标方面， 2025 年每千人口拥有 3 岁以下婴幼儿托位数、单位 GDP 能源消耗降低 2 项指标可能需要重点突破。 2.从细分领域发展目标看，加大基础研究经 费投入与加快建设战略性新兴产业、新增民用运输机场、提高核电运行装 机容量 3 个领域可能仍有较大发展压力。 二、 中国制造 2025"哪些重 点领域的发展仍需突破？ 在航空航天、机器人、农机设备、半导体 4 个 行业，我国可能仍有较大发展空间。具体而言： 1.航空航天：未来或需 进一步降低发射成本、提高发射次数； 2.半导体：10nm 以下的高端芯片 生产能力亟需提升； 3.机器人：具身智能的应用场景仍需拓展、工业机 器人国产化率仍待提升； 4.农机设备：跻身全球市场份额前 10 的国内企 业数量仍需提高。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周报 20250421：建议关注泛科技双 ...