| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 000933 | | | 公司点评 | | Q2 | 业绩环比改善，电解铝持续发挥成本优势 | | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | 主要观点： | | 报告日期： 2024-08-28 | ⚫[Table_Summary] 神火股份发布 2024 年半年报 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 公司 24H1 实现营业收入 182.21 亿元，同比-4.65%；实现归母净利润 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 22.84 亿元，同比-16.62%。其中单 Q2 实现营业收入 99.98 亿元，同比 | | 总股本（百万股） | +4.2%，环比+21.57%；实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.03 yuan [4] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 revenue was 18.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.65%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.28 billion yuan, down 16.62% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 9.998 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year and 21.6% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 1.194 billion yuan, flat year-on-year but up 9.4% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The electrolytic aluminum segment saw a 3.2% year-on-year increase in production to 749,900 tons, with sales up 2.3% to 749,500 tons, and a gross profit per ton of 4,058 yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [2] - The coal segment experienced a 15.04% year-on-year decline in production to 3.228 million tons, with sales down 18.75% to 3.151 million tons, and a gross profit per ton of 329.47 yuan, down 42.08% year-on-year [2] - The company's income tax expense for H1 2024 was 771 million yuan, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2, which negatively impacted profits [2] Financial Performance - The company's H1 2024 EBITDA was 8.039 billion yuan, with a projected EBITDA of 9.946 billion yuan for 2025 and 10.405 billion yuan for 2026 [3] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.541 billion yuan in 2024, 5.923 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.289 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - The company's EPS is projected to be 2.02 yuan in 2024, 2.63 yuan in 2025, and 2.80 yuan in 2026 [3] Segment Performance - The electrolytic aluminum segment's production in Xinjiang was 400,000 tons, down 2.53% year-on-year, while production in Yunnan was 349,900 tons, up 10.59% year-on-year [2] - The coal segment's operating profit from its two core entities (Xinlong + Xinglong) was 750 million yuan, down from 980 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company's investment income from its equity stakes in Longzhou Aluminum and Xinzheng Coal Power was 57 million yuan, down 60.91% year-on-year [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 7.45x in 2024, 5.71x in 2025, and 5.38x in 2026 [3] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to be 1.49x in 2024, 1.27x in 2025, and 1.10x in 2026 [3] - The company's EV/EBITDA is projected to be 4.80x in 2024, 3.44x in 2025, and 3.04x in 2026 [3]

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 公司快报 2024 年 08 月 25 日 神火股份(000933.SZ) 电解铝量利双增，煤炭生产恢复正常水 平 公司发布 2024 年中报 2024 年 H1 公司营业收入 182.21 亿元，同比-4.65%；归母净利润 22.84 亿元，同比-16.62%，扣非归母净利润 21.57 亿元，同比-21.35%。 其中 2024 年 Q2 营业收入 99.98 亿元，同比+4.20%、环比+21.57%； 归母净利润 11.94 亿元，同比+0.04%、环比+9.45%。扣非归母净利润 11.43 亿元，同比-4.82%，环比+12.88%。 公司上半年业绩受以下非经营性原因影响：1）公司上半年取得投 资收益 2.7 亿元，主要为处置神火发电股权取得；2）公司上半年 营业外支出 1.25 亿元，主要为因与华晨电力签订和解协议确认的 债权损失。 电解铝量利双增，煤炭生产恢复正常水平 ✔量： 1）铝：上半年公司铝产品产量 74.99 万吨（新疆 40 万吨，云南 34.99 万吨），同比+3.2%；销量 74.95 万吨（新疆 39.97 万吨，云南 3 ...

神火股份（000933.SZ）2024 年半年报点评 煤炭拖累 H1 业绩，期待 Q3 云南神火量利齐升 2024 年 08 月 23 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年半年报。2024H1，公司实现营收 182.21 亿元，同 比下降 4.65%；归母净利润 22.84 亿元，同比下降 16.62%；扣非归母净利 21.57 亿元，同比下降 21.35%。分季度看，2024Q2，公司实现营收 99.98 亿元，同 比上升 4.20%、环比上升 21.57%；归母净利润 11.94 亿元，同比上升 0.04%、 环比上升 9.45%；扣非归母净利 11.43 亿元，同比下降 4.82%，环比上升 12.88%。 ➢ 煤炭量价齐跌拖累24H1业绩。量：煤炭产量下滑，电解铝产量上升。2024H1 公司煤炭产量 322.75 万吨，同比减少 57.15 万吨，减幅 15.04%；电解铝产量 74.99 万吨，同比增加 2.31 万吨，增幅 3.18%；碳素产量 22.97 万吨，同比减 少 1.31 万吨，减幅 5.4%；铝箔产量 4.15 万吨，同比减少 0.05 万吨，减幅 1.19%。 利：煤炭价格下跌，盈 ...

2024 年 08 月 21 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王璇 S0350523080001 wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 研究所： [Table_Title] 电解铝量价齐升，煤炭产量下降影响业绩 ——神火股份（000933）2024 年中报点评 最近一年走势 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/08/20 表现 1M 3M 12M 神火股份 -14.5% -34.9% 15.8% 沪深 300 -5.8% -9.7% -11.9% 市场数据 2024/08/20 当前价格（元） 15.91 52 周价格区间（元） 14.18-25.38 总市值（百万） 35,792.86 流通市值（百万） 35,689.14 总股本（万股） 224,970.84 流通股本（万股） 224,318.90 日均成交额（百万） 703.89 近一月换手（%） 1.24 相关报告 王璇》——2024-04-23 业金属*陈晨，王璇》——2024-03-26 度业绩环比改善，四季度有望继续向好（买入）* 工业金属* ...

神火股份（000933.SZ） 优于大市 煤炭业务拖累业绩，铝冶炼利润有望扩大 2024H1 公司归母净利润下降 17%。2024H1 年实现营收 182 亿元（同比-4.6%）， 归母净利润22.8 亿元（同比-17%），扣非归母净利润21.6 亿元（同比-21.3%）， 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 40.69 亿元。 公司盈利下降主因煤炭板块量价齐跌，2024 上半年煤炭产量 322.75 万吨， 同比减少 57 万吨，由于产量下降，成本相对抬升，2024H1 煤炭营业成本 785 元/吨，比 2023 年增加 150 元/吨。2024H1 煤炭销售价格同比下降 133 元/ 吨，上半年煤炭板块毛利润同比减少 12 亿元。 电解铝板块三季度可能承压，上半年氧化铝现货价格在 3500 元/吨（含税）， 下半年至今价格为 3900 元/吨，因此铝板块在三季度面临成本上行压力；二 季度铝均价 20500 元/吨（含税），下半年至今为 19500 元/吨左右，因此三 季度电解铝板块面临利润收缩压力。如近期我们外发的行业快评，认为三季 度是铝行业冶炼利润最差的时候，往后看铝价有回升趋势，氧化铝价格有回 落趋势，铝冶 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 08 月 20 日 神火股份（000933.SZ） 煤炭量价齐跌业绩承压，电解铝成本下降盈利改善 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 42,704 | 37,625 | 34,813 | 36,234 | 38,213 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 23.8 | -11.9 | -7.5 | 4.1 | 5.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 7,578 | 5,905 | 4,468 | 4,627 | 4,840 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 134.1 | -22.1 | -24.3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | | ROE（%） | 40.5 | 27.7 | 18.4 | 16.7 | 15.5 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 3.37 | ...

证 2024 年 08 月 20 日 告 研 究 究 报 2024H1 因煤炭量价下降影响盈利，但 Q2 盈利环 比 Q1 改善 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-08-20 | | 当前股价（元） | 15.91 | | 总市值（亿元） | 358 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2250 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2243 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.19-25.21 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 516.11 | 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 神火股份 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《神火股份（000933）：煤铝价 格下跌影响盈利，煤炭扩建项目将 释放增量》2024-03-28 2、《神火股份（000933）：主业稳 中求进，铝加工板块持续发 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2024 年 08 月 20 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：15.91 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 神火股份 沪深300 -34% -17% 0% 17% 34% 51% 69% 86% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|--------|--------|--------| | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -14.46 | -26.85 | -29.35 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -8.63 | -21.29 | -19.96 | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《神火股份（000933.SZ）： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.25 CNY compared to the current price of 17.06 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 25% [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was slightly below expectations, primarily due to declines in both coal sales and prices, alongside significant increases in aluminum raw material costs [1]. - The report highlights that the average prices for domestic electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased by 7% and 18% year-on-year, while the average prices for various types of coal decreased significantly, with declines ranging from 17% to 23% [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 18.22 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.35%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.284 billion CNY, down 16.62% year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported total revenue of 182.21 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 21.35% year-on-year [1]. - Investment income rose to 270 million CNY, an increase of 87% year-on-year [1]. - Management expenses increased by 30% to 380 million CNY, while non-operating expenses surged by 326% to 125 million CNY [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities showed a significant decline, with a net cash flow of -6.9 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 924.67% [1]. Production and Sales Summary - The company produced 3.2275 million tons of coal and sold 3.1506 million tons, representing year-on-year declines of 15% and 19%, respectively [1]. - In the electrolytic aluminum segment, production and sales were stable, with 749,900 tons produced and sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 3% and 2% [1]. - The report notes that the company’s integrated industrial chain is expected to enhance performance in the future [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for the company to be 5.189 billion CNY, 6.424 billion CNY, and 7.252 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% in 2024, followed by increases of 23.8% and 12.9% in the subsequent years [1][3]. - The valuation for the coal and electrolytic aluminum segments is based on comparable company analysis, with estimated PE ratios of approximately 8 times and 10 times for 2024 [1].