根据公开信息显示，养老基金在二季度新进成为华峰铝业前十大流通股东之一。这表明机构投资者对公 司未来发展前景的认可。 华峰铝业8月26日股价报17.64元，较前一交易日下跌0.10元，跌幅0.56%。当日成交量为116679手，成 交金额2.05亿元，振幅1.58%。公司总市值为176.14亿元，市盈率为15.44倍。 华峰铝业主要从事铝板带箔的研发、生产和销售，产品广泛应用于汽车、家电、建筑等领域。公司属于 有色金属行业，同时涉及新能源车、专精特新等概念板块。 8月26日华峰铝业主力资金净流入546.22万元，占流通市值的0.03%。近五个交易日主力资金累计净流出 2628.79万元，占流通市值的0.15%。 风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎。本文所提及股票仅供信息参考，不构成投资建议。 ...

朝闻国盛 杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订 今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 08 25 年 月 日 【宏观】高频半月观—8 月以来出口表现仍强——20250824 【宏观】杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订——20250823 重磅研报 【固定收益】资金宽松，杠杆下降——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250823 【银行】2025上半年各地信贷增速及贷款利率有何变化？——20250824 【电子】消费电子进入新品发布旺季，板块估值重塑可期——20250824 【建筑】联检科技（301115.SZ）-并购拓疆步入收获期，检测龙头迎新 增长拐点——20250824 【食品饮料】安琪酵母（600298.SH）-以史为鉴，大周期起点 —— 20250824 【金融工程】食品饮料终于迎来日线级别上涨——20250824 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值分数继续下行——20250823 【固定收益】债对股的敏感性或下降——20250824 【固定收益】化债见成果——各地 2025 年 H1 经济财政债务盘点—— 20250823 【电力设备】威力传动（300904. ...

电解铝下游加工及终端消费旺季前瞻 20250822 摘要 铝棒加工费持续走低，7 月华东、华南地区环比下跌超 30%，产能利用 率降至 43.75%，但 8 月订单企稳，库存去化，业者对"金九银十"预 期乐观，预计 9 月产能利用率小幅提升。 铝型材企业建成产能超 1,000 万吨，运行率约 50%。建筑型材受房地 产市场低迷影响大，占比持续下降，从 2019 年的 70%以上降至 2024 年的 45.7%，工业型材需求相对稳定。 房地产市场持续下行，1-7 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12%，新开工面 积减少 19.4%，竣工面积减少 16.5%，导致前七个月房地产用铝量同 比减少 35.3 万吨。 为应对国内市场困境，部分铝型材企业积极拓展出口，出口货款回款周 期短且利润丰厚，沿海工厂出口比重已达 50%以上，但需警惕国际贸易 摩擦及绿色铝等政策带来的挑战。 新能源用铝需求增长显著，光伏和新能源汽车领域成为重要增长点。 2025 年上半年新增光伏装机容量同比增长超 99%，1-7 月新能源汽车 产销同比增长超 38%，但铝加工企业面临光伏补贴取消、产能扩张及车 企合作门槛等挑战。 Q&A 当前铝下游加工各 ...

Q2 归母净利环比改善，高端转型与项目推进助力长期发展 事件：公司于 8 月 22 日披露 25H1 业绩，公司实现营收 170 亿元，同比 +11%；归母净利 9.4 亿元，同比-12%；扣非归母净利 8.3 亿元，同比- 8%。单季来看，25Q1/Q2 公司实现营收 81/89 亿元，Q2 同比+9%，环 比+9%；归母净利 4.4/5 亿元，Q2 同比-29%，环比+14%。 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 23 年 月 日 明泰铝业（601677.SH） 公司在新兴领域实现重点突破。子公司明泰交通新材料实现全铝立柱机器 人本体（含立柱、大臂、小臂）量产，基于铝合金轨道车体技术积淀，产 品具备一次成形、轻量化与长臂展优势，已出口日本并应用于食品饮料、 医药电子等高精度场景，正与行业龙头深化合作拓展航空清洁、高层厂房 等复杂需求。依托鸿晟新材在建的高端热处理设备（气垫炉/辊底炉），瞄 准低空飞行器与航天军工材料需求，通过高端产线建设突破强韧性调控工 艺，目标替代进口航空铝合金，为机体结构件与蒙皮材料提供本土化解决 方案。 2026-2028 年公司分红比例不低于 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and strategic initiatives of Henan Mingtai Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, emphasizing its focus on high-end manufacturing, low-carbon circular economy, and the expansion of recycled aluminum applications. Company Overview and Key Financial Indicators - The company reported a revenue of approximately 16.99 billion RMB, an increase of 11% compared to the same period last year [2] - The total profit decreased by 10.9% to approximately 1.07 billion RMB, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 12.11% to about 940 million RMB [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 80.56% to approximately 1.1 billion RMB [2] - Total assets grew by 20.38% to approximately 28.08 billion RMB, and net assets increased by 5.36% to about 18.23 billion RMB [2] Industry and Main Business Situation - The aluminum plate, strip, and foil industry maintained resilience supported by demand from the new energy sector, while recycled aluminum applications expanded rapidly due to policy and technological advantages [3] - The company has developed into a leading player in both diversified aluminum processing and recycled aluminum applications, with products used in various sectors including new energy, transportation, electronics, and military [3][4] - The company operates four hot-rolling production lines and has advanced recycling technology, with an annual processing capacity of over 1 million tons of waste aluminum [3] Operational Analysis - The company employs a "sales-driven production" model, ensuring stable procurement of raw materials through long-term agreements with suppliers [4] - The company focuses on high-end intelligent manufacturing and low-carbon circular economy, aiming to enhance product structure and management efficiency [5] - The company has made significant advancements in technology, including the development of high-performance aluminum foil for solid-state batteries and lightweight aluminum structures for robotics and aerospace applications [5][6] Financial Performance and Cost Management - The company reported an increase in operating costs by 18.96% to approximately 15.96 billion RMB, while sales expenses decreased by 13.99% [11] - The company has implemented measures to reduce costs and improve efficiency, including the use of recycled aluminum to lower raw material costs [7] - The company achieved a sales volume of 780,000 tons in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 17 billion RMB [7] Competitive Advantages and Future Outlook - The company has established a strong competitive position through continuous technological innovation and a focus on green production practices [8] - The company has received multiple certifications for its green manufacturing processes and aims to further enhance its recycling capabilities in response to new regulations [8][13] - The company is actively pursuing international procurement of recycled aluminum to expand its supply network and reduce carbon emissions [13] Governance and Investor Relations - The company has undergone a board restructuring to enhance decision-making efficiency and governance practices [14] - The company emphasizes transparent communication with investors and has implemented a systematic investor relations management framework [15]

资金流向方面，华峰铝业当日主力资金净流出1472.07万元，近五个交易日累计净流出713.21万元。 风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 公开信息显示，2025年二季度社保基金对华峰铝业进行了加仓操作，合计增持960.7万股。目前共有4只 社保基金产品持有该公司股票。 华峰铝业股价报17.73元，较前一交易日下跌1.39%。盘中波动区间为17.62元至18.09元，成交金额达 2.03亿元。 该公司主要从事铝板带箔的研发、生产和销售，产品广泛应用于汽车、家电、建筑等领域。华峰铝业属 于有色金属行业，是上海本地上市公司。 ...

8月11日主力资金净流出2412.92万元，近五日主力资金累计净流出6622.95万元。 风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 8月11日晚间，明泰铝业发布公告称，公司2025年第二次临时股东会审议通过了《关于组建企业集团并 修订的议案》。 明泰铝业8月11日股价报收13.13元，较前一交易日上涨0.11元，涨幅0.84%。当日成交量为290593手， 成交金额达3.80亿元。 明泰铝业主要从事铝板带箔的研发、生产和销售业务，产品广泛应用于包装、电子电器、交通运输等领 域。公司属于有色金属行业，注册地位于河南省。 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Huafeng Aluminum closed at 16.28 yuan on August 7, down 0.73% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 56,334 hands, with a transaction amount of 0.92 billion yuan and a fluctuation of 2.38% [1] - Huafeng Aluminum is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of aluminum plates, strips, and foils, with applications in automotive, home appliances, and construction sectors [1] Group 2 - The company is part of the non-ferrous metals industry and is also involved in the new energy vehicle sector [1] - On August 7, the net inflow of main funds into Huafeng Aluminum was 144,500 yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 390,500 yuan over the past five days [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the company is 15.26 times, and the price-to-book ratio is 2.96 times [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.8 CNY, based on a 10X valuation of the estimated EPS for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing strong sales growth in its main products, particularly in high-end products, with a notable increase in production and sales volume [8]. - Continuous investment in high-end production lines and successful collaborations for product certification are expected to enhance the company's market position [8]. - The company is focusing on R&D to develop high-value-added products, aiming to increase the proportion of high-end products to over 30% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 26,442 million CNY in 2023 to 43,209 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 7.9% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,347 million CNY in 2023 to 2,287 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 6.8% [4]. - EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.08 CNY in 2023 to 1.84 CNY in 2027 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at a PE ratio of 11.7 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 6.9 by 2027 [4]. - The projected PB ratio is expected to decline from 1.0 in 2023 to 0.7 in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The short - term market is in a state of intense competition between "anti - involution" and the decline in social inventory out - flow during the off - season, and may be in a consolidation phase. The price of the SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 20,200 and 20,900 [5][13]. - In the medium term, due to factors such as the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory during the off - season, the lack of mention of alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. However, there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze with low warehouse receipts and a high virtual - to - real ratio. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. In the off - season, the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline. The supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being, but there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to oscillate between 20,500 and 21,100. It was advisable to appropriately arrange long positions near the lower end of the range [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Recommendation for Spot Enterprises**: Consider appropriately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3. Overall View Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported bauxite at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter. If Guinea's shipments remain low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the "anti - involution" background [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profits this year, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed production. Currently, the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%. Due to the production capacity ceiling, there is limited new production capacity in the future [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined since April due to tariff disturbances, overall, it shows resilience [10]. Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum profile enterprises remained stable at 50.5% this week. The new orders for construction profiles are weak, and the overall operating rate of industrial profiles remained stable. In the off - season, the market is difficult to achieve significant growth and is expected to remain stable in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum Sheet, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. With the upcoming high - temperature holidays in August, some upstream production enterprises may make production - cut plans, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry will continue to remain low in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%, and it will maintain a low - level operation under the weak domestic and overseas demand [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.6% this week. Although it is still at a low level in the short term, there are signs of marginal improvement, and the operating rate is expected to enter a recovery phase in August [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The industry is in a game between "aluminum water allocation - led" and "aluminum price suppressing demand". Although the export volume data is better than expected recently, the export situation may still be deeply adjusted, and substantial recovery depends on clear policies and alleviation of cost pressure. The operating rate of leading secondary aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1% this week. Affected by factors such as declining demand, difficult raw material replenishment, and profit inversion, the operating rate is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [12]. Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July and is still at a low level since 1990 [12]. Profit - related - **Alumina Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, compared with about 550 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: Currently, the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, the same as last week, and the profit is at a relatively high level [13]. Market Expectation and Outlook - **Market Expectation**: There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal of alumina under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, considering that the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027 does not mention alumina capacity clearance and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. Attention should be paid to the supply - side clearance policy, and beware of the downward trend if the expectation is not met. In the short term, the long - short game is intense [13]. - **Personal View**: The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is the lowest in the whole year. August is the window period for the conversion between the off - season and the peak season. With the easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. With the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" and stable - growth policies, the supply - demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. In the next week, due to the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of aluminum ingots during the off - season, the "anti - involution" expectation has cooled down, and the price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 [13]. - **Key Concerns**: Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum accumulates more than expected and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [13]. - **Direction**: The market is in a large - range oscillation and is expected to strengthen slightly in August [13]. 4. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm for bauxite is average. In August, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to be reflected in the domestic bauxite supply, and imports are expected to decline. The price of imported bauxite is expected to oscillate between 70 - 75 US dollars per dry ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and there is an expectation of marginal tightening of domestic supply before September. The alumina price rose first and then fell, and there is no obvious sign of a trend reversal [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum rose first and then fell this week, and was blocked again at the 21,000 level. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [15]. 5. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite continued to increase slightly. The inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase, mainly due to weak overseas demand and the new position - limit rule of LME's near - month contracts [17][19]. 6. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit Situation**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of alumina imports is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly next week [25][26]. 7. Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of SHFE aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [30]. 8. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,430 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,330 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [37][38]. 9. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has been rising slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has been reducing positions overall, and the long side has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [40]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation first increased and then decreased, generally remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds mainly from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [43].