Group 1 - In 2024, China's bauxite production is expected to be approximately 93 million tons, remaining stable compared to 2023 due to environmental regulations and mining restrictions [1] - China's alumina production is projected to reach about 85.52 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [2] - The output of electrolytic aluminum in China is estimated to be around 44.01 million tons in 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [4] Group 2 - China's recycled aluminum production is anticipated to be about 10.5 million tons in 2024, continuing its growth trend despite previous slowdowns [5][8] - The production of aluminum processing materials in China is expected to be around 64.6 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, accounting for 67.15% of the global total [9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply in safety production month, with daily consumption increasing week-on-week and port inventories decreasing [2][5] - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in thermal coal prices as the summer peak season approaches, supported by low inventory levels at power plants [5][16] - The overall coal market fundamentals have improved significantly compared to previous periods, with expectations for price stabilization and recovery [5][16] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventories continue to decrease, with a week-on-week drop of 125.3 thousand tons, indicating a tightening supply [30] - Daily consumption at coastal and inland power plants has increased, with a week-on-week rise of 2.0 and 24.9 thousand tons respectively [25][31] - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port has decreased by 2 yuan/ton week-on-week, now at 609 yuan/ton [17] Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has contracted, with a week-on-week decrease in production capacity utilization by 0.87 percentage points [41] - The average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has decreased by 234 trucks week-on-week [45] - Coking coal prices at major ports have decreased, with the price at Jing Tang port dropping by 30 yuan/ton to 1270 yuan/ton [42] Coke - The implementation of the third round of price reductions has led to a decrease in the operating rate of coke enterprises, down 0.15 percentage points to 76.04% [53] - Coke prices have decreased by 70 yuan/ton week-on-week, now at 1280 yuan/ton [53] - The average profit per ton of coke has improved by 20 yuan/ton week-on-week, now at -19 yuan/ton [57] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cash flow and high profitability, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [78] - It emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in the context of recent government support and market stability [77][78]

Group 1 - The global aluminum profile industry has evolved from initial industrial applications to multiple high-tech and traditional fields [1] - Guinea holds the largest aluminum ore reserves globally, accounting for 25.52% of total reserves [2] - Guinea, Australia, and China each contribute over 20% to global aluminum ore production, with respective shares of 28.99%, 22.22%, and 20.67% [5] Group 2 - The total global aluminum profile production is projected to be approximately 39.18 million tons in 2024, with China accounting for 50%-55% of this total [7] - There is an increasing demand for lightweight aluminum profiles, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors, driven by technological innovations and the rapid development of industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again. The current weak domestic economy and external pressures, such as tariffs from the Trump administration, along with a downward trend in interest rates, make coal a stable dividend investment. Insurance funds have begun new allocations in coal and other dividend sectors, which are perceived as low-risk due to state-owned backgrounds [4][12]. - The coal market is expected to stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve. Both thermal and coking coal prices are at low levels, with potential for upward movement following the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the upcoming construction season in 2025 [4][12]. - The coal sector is likely to see a renewed investment focus due to supportive macro policies and capital market initiatives. High dividend payouts have become a trend, with several listed coal companies announcing mid-term dividend plans, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Logic - The coal sector is viewed as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Insurance funds are starting new allocations in coal, which is seen as a low-risk investment [4][12]. 2. Key Indicators Overview - The coal sector experienced a slight decline of 0.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.38 percentage points. The sector's PE ratio is 11.81, and the PB ratio is 1.18, ranking low among all A-share industries [7][9]. 3. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of June 6, the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 thermal coal is 609 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 0.33%. The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.3%, with a minor decline [3][15]. - The inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased to 29.31 million tons, down 4.1% from the previous week, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [3][15]. 4. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price for main coking coal at the Jing Tang port remains stable at 1270 CNY/ton. However, the market is facing potential supply disruptions due to political changes in Mongolia and domestic cost pressures [3][16]. - The average daily iron output remains above 240 CNY/ton, indicating resilient demand for coking coal despite pressures from the steel industry [3][16]. 5. Company Announcements - Several coal companies have announced plans for stock buybacks and increased shareholder holdings, signaling confidence in the sector's valuation and potential for price appreciation [4][12]. 6. Selected Coal Stocks - Key stocks to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for dividend potential; Pingmei Shenma and Huabei Mining for cyclical logic; and Guanghui Energy and Xinjie Energy for growth potential [4][12].

证券代码：000933 证券简称：神火股份 公告编号：2025-036 河南神火煤电股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 河南神火煤电股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 12 月 30 日召开董事会第九届十四次会议审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方 案的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金通过集中竞价交易方式回购部分股 份用于股权激励计划，回购总金额不低于人民币 2.50 亿元（含）且不 超过人民币 4.50 亿元（含），回购价格不超过人民币 20 元/股（含）， 实施期限为自董事会审议通过本次回购方案之日起 12 个月内。具体内 容详见公司在《证券时报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》 及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的相关公告。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监 管指引第 9 号—回购股份》等有关规定，公司应当于每个月的前三个 交易日内披露截至上月末的回购进展情况。现将公司回购股份进展情 况公告如下： 一、本次回购股份的进展情况 截至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that tariff pressures are expected to ease further, and the off-season destocking performance is better than anticipated. The aluminum industry is likely to experience a continuous trend of destocking and price increases, supported by improving export conditions [10] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, maintaining a high level of industry prosperity [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 30, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,448.5 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20,070.0 per ton [14][20] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20,240.0 per ton, down ¥160.0 from the previous week [20] 2. Production - In May 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, an increase of 123,000 tons month-on-month and 214,000 tons year-on-year [53] - The production of alumina in May 2025 was 7.272 million tons, up 189,000 tons month-on-month and 593,000 tons year-on-year [53] 3. Inventory - As of May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 511,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of aluminum rods was recorded at 128,300 tons, with a slight decrease of 2,500 tons week-on-week [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a slight increase in the alloying ratio affecting the delivery situation [7] - Demand from downstream sectors is showing signs of weakness, particularly in photovoltaic aluminum and automotive materials, while cable orders remain strong due to state grid demand [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on the EU has increased global economic uncertainty, which supports a bullish trend in gold prices. Central banks continue to purchase gold, indicating a sustained long-term bullish outlook [3]. - For copper and aluminum, while there is a short-term weakness in downstream operations, the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, justifying a "Recommended" rating for both industries [11]. - Tin prices are expected to stabilize at a high level, with corporate profits projected to gradually increase, leading to a "Recommended" rating for the tin industry [11]. - Antimony prices are currently weak due to short-term demand decline, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices, hence a "Recommended" rating is maintained [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a monthly performance increase of 3.1%, a quarterly increase of 4.3%, and a yearly increase of 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1]. Macroeconomic Indicators - China's real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3%, while the industrial added value in April grew by 6.1%, exceeding expectations [4][28]. - The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 52.3, significantly above the expected 49.9 [3][28]. Gold Market Data - The London gold price increased to $3342.65 per ounce, a rise of 3.48% from the previous week [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 29.66 million ounces, an increase of 120,000 ounces [32]. Copper Market Data - LME copper closed at $9565 per ton, up by $52 from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 77,790 yuan per ton, down by 880 yuan [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 139,900 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market Data - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices rose to 20,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 56.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin and Antimony Market Data - Domestic refined tin prices were reported at 265,070 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 370 yuan [43]. - Antimony ingot prices were reported at 220,500 yuan per ton, down by 2,000 yuan [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, with a recommendation to buy [3][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the production elasticity and profit elasticity of electrolytic aluminum companies, indicating that profitability will be a key competitive factor due to fixed production capacity [8]. - The report predicts a decrease in the volatility of alumina prices in 2025, which will enhance the profitability of companies like Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Tianshan [8]. - The report provides forecasts for gold production from listed companies, with specific attention to the CAGR of production from 2024 to 2027 [10][11]. Summary by Sections Copper Industry - The report includes production data and forecasts for major copper companies, emphasizing the importance of proprietary mining data [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The report details the production capacity and market valuation of various electrolytic aluminum companies, noting that the lowest market value per ton of aluminum is approximately 21,000 RMB [8][9]. Gold Industry - The report presents a forecast of self-produced gold output for listed companies, with specific figures for total gold resources and market capitalization [10][11]. Lithium Industry - The report outlines the lithium resource rights and production forecasts for several companies, highlighting significant growth rates for companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Yongxing Materials [12]. Uranium Industry - The report discusses the production forecasts for uranium companies, particularly focusing on China General Nuclear Power Corporation, with a projected CAGR of 8.16% from 2024 to 2027 [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is expected to benefit from favorable domestic policies and supply disruptions in Guinea affecting bauxite supply, leading to potential price increases and inventory reductions [6][9] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry is likely to experience a sustained "de-inventory + price increase" trend, supported by improving export conditions and limited supply growth [9] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 23, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2466.0 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20155.0 per ton [19] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20400.0 per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of ¥170.0 [19] 2. Production - In April 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 360.6 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.8 million tons but a year-on-year increase of 2.5 million tons [51] - The production of alumina in April 2025 was 708.4 million tons, down 46.6 million tons month-on-month but up 30.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of May 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 557,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 24,000 tons [6] - The inventory of aluminum rods was 130,800 tons, down 740 tons week-on-week, remaining at a three-year low [6] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5]