Summary of Longyuan Power Conference Call Company Overview - Longyuan Power is a wind power business integration platform under the State Energy Group and is the largest wind power operator globally as of mid-2025, with a controlling stake of 59% held by the State Energy Group [6][12] - The group has a total installed capacity of 355 GW, with 122 GW in green energy, of which Longyuan Power accounts for 46% in wind and 19% in solar [6][12] Industry Dynamics - The domestic wind and solar installation has reached a turning point, with significant policy support leading to a recovery in cash flow for companies like Longyuan Power [2][3] - The implementation of Document No. 136 and mandatory green energy consumption policies have driven the price-to-book ratio (P/B) recovery to 0.76, although it remains at historical lows [2][12] Financial Performance - Longyuan Power's long-term return on equity (ROE) has been stable at 8%-9%, with only two years (2013 and 2022) showing declines due to external factors [7][8] - The company’s electricity price from desulfurization has decreased from 0.5 yuan per kWh in 2017 to 0.19 yuan per kWh in mid-2025, reflecting market pressures [2][9] - The company’s P/B ratio has dropped from a peak of 2.34 in September 2021 to a low of 0.52 in February 2024, with a slight rebound to around 0.76 [4][5] Cash Flow and Valuation - Longyuan Power is expected to face a free cash flow deficit of 12.1 billion yuan in 2024, but with a slowdown in conventional project development and accelerated national subsidy repayments, free cash flow may turn positive in 2025 [4][17] - The company’s accounts receivable stood at 49.5 billion yuan, representing 56% of net assets, indicating a high dependency on subsidy recoveries [18] Future Growth and Asset Development - Future growth will be supported by the injection of approximately 4 GW of green energy units from the group, upgrades to older units, and over 5 GW of offshore wind power reserves [14][15] - The company aims to add 7.5 GW of new capacity in 2024 and 5 GW in 2025, focusing on high-quality resource areas [13][14] Market Conditions and Pricing - The market for green certificates has seen a significant decline in prices, but recent policy changes have led to a recovery, with trading volumes increasing substantially [19] - The competitive advantage of wind power over solar is highlighted by better alignment with load curves and higher market prices [15] Profit Forecast - Longyuan Power's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.43 billion yuan, 7.22 billion yuan, and 7.93 billion yuan, respectively, indicating growth rates of 0.1%, 12%, and 10% [20] Conclusion - Longyuan Power is positioned to benefit from industry recovery and policy support, with a strong asset base and growth potential despite current market pressures and historical low valuations [2][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility industry [1] Core Insights - The first mechanism electricity price bidding results for renewable energy in Shandong have been released, indicating a significant market-oriented shift in policy [3][17] - Wind power mechanism electricity price is set at 319 CNY/MWh, which is a 20% premium over the 2024 average spot trading price, while solar power is at 225 CNY/MWh, a 33% premium [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of management and operational capabilities for renewable energy operators in a market-driven environment [4][30] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - The Shandong province has become the first to implement a market-oriented mechanism for renewable energy pricing, with significant participation from over 3000 projects [18][21] - The mechanism electricity volume for wind power is 59.67 billion kWh, while for solar power it is only 12.48 billion kWh, reflecting a stronger policy support for wind energy [3][23] - The report suggests that the future of solar power installations in Shandong may see reduced investment enthusiasm due to current pricing pressures and non-technical cost reductions [4][29] Grid Sector - New pricing mechanisms for nearby consumption of green electricity have been established, which will protect grid interests and promote cost reductions for users [6][35] - The system operation costs will be charged based on the electricity delivered, allowing for potential savings in electricity costs for high-load enterprises [7][37] - The report highlights that the new pricing structure will benefit wind power and energy storage development, making them key components in the green electricity landscape [8][42] Renewable Energy Assets - The report discusses the acceleration of Real World Assets (RWA) in the distributed solar sector, with significant investments from companies like JinkoSolar and GCL-Poly [10][44] - The RWA framework is expected to enhance liquidity and value reassessment of quality distributed solar assets, benefiting original equity holders [11][47] - The collaboration between LinYuan Energy and Ant Group aims to digitize energy assets, further supporting the RWA initiative [12][48] Green Methanol - A major project for green methanol production has been announced by Goldwind, with a total investment of approximately 18.92 billion CNY, aiming to produce 600,000 tons of green methanol annually [13][49] - The report anticipates a surge in demand for green methanol as multiple projects are set to commence production in the coming years [13][49] - Key suppliers and equipment manufacturers in the green methanol sector are expected to see performance improvements as the market expands [13][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [8] Core Insights - The bidding results for wind and solar energy in Shandong for 2025 show a clear differentiation, with wind energy having a selected volume of 5.967 billion kWh and a clearing price of 0.319 CNY/kWh, while solar energy has a selected volume of 1.248 billion kWh and a clearing price of 0.225 CNY/kWh [2][11] - The new pricing mechanism for grid connection capacity is expected to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy, promoting a win-win situation for the grid, power generation companies, and users [2][11] Summary by Sections Bidding Results - The wind energy projects in Shandong are limited in number but have a large allocated bidding volume, with a rational bidding price close to the upper limit, indicating stable profit expectations [2][11] - The solar energy projects face intense competition, leading to a clearing price that is under pressure, reflecting a more challenging market environment [2][11] Pricing Mechanism - Recent regulatory changes propose a shift to a single capacity-based pricing model for grid connection, which is expected to streamline the pricing mechanism for nearby consumption projects [2][11] - The new pricing structure aims to eliminate additional fees for energy delivered to the grid, thus enhancing the economic viability of renewable energy projects [2][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing reforms in the electricity market are revitalizing power operators, with a focus on high-quality development in the renewable energy sector [2][11] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, among others, due to their strong positions in the transitioning energy landscape [2][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, recommending various companies within these industries for investment [5][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive results of the electricity pricing mechanism in Shandong, indicating that wind power is favored over solar power, with wind power pricing at 0.319 CNY/kWh and solar at 0.225 CNY/kWh [9][10]. - A new pricing mechanism for nearby consumption of renewable energy has been established, clarifying economic responsibilities and allowing renewable projects to pay for supply reliability [12][13]. - Global gas prices are showing mixed trends, with European and Asian prices rising while U.S. prices are declining, reflecting varying supply and demand dynamics [15][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Shandong Pricing Mechanism and New Renewable Energy Policies - Shandong's first competitive pricing results show wind power projects with a total capacity of 3.5911 GW and a mechanism electricity price of 0.319 CNY/kWh, while solar projects have a capacity of 1.265 GW and a price of 0.225 CNY/kWh [9][11]. - The new pricing mechanism for nearby consumption aims to enhance the utilization of renewable energy and reduce the pressure on the power system [12][13]. 2. Gas: Global Price Variations - As of September 12, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices are at $2.94/mmBtu, down 3.61% week-on-week, while European TTF prices are at €32.00/MWh, up 1.27% [15][16]. - The report notes that U.S. gas production remains high despite a slight decline, while European prices are influenced by supply constraints and increased heating demand due to cooler temperatures [15][20]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The gas sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the public utilities, power, and environmental sectors underperformed [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements include the implementation of market-oriented pricing reforms for renewable energy in Jiangxi province, effective from October 2025 [40]. - The report also discusses various company announcements, including operational updates and financial instruments [43]. 5. Key Company Valuation Tables - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the public utility sector, highlighting buy and hold recommendations for several firms based on their earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingzheng International initiates coverage of Longyuan Power (001289)(00916) with an "Overweight" rating, highlighting short-term performance pressure due to fluctuations in green electricity prices, while maintaining optimism about the company's long-term growth potential driven by offshore wind and large-scale projects [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Longyuan Power is positioned as the wind power business integration platform of the State Energy Group, with a total installed capacity of 43.2 GW as of the end of H1 2025, comprising 31.4 GW of wind power and 11.8 GW of solar power [2] - The company has historically maintained a stable return on equity (ROE) in the range of 8-9%, with controllable declines in electricity prices over recent years [2] - The operating profit per kilowatt-hour for wind power has decreased from 0.24 yuan/kWh in 2017 to 0.20 yuan/kWh in 2024, and is expected to drop to 0.19 yuan/kWh in H1 2025 due to unfavorable wind conditions and price pressures [2] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Longyuan Power holds a leading position in resource allocation with 31.4 GW of controlled wind power capacity, including approximately 2.2 GW from Jiangsu offshore wind and 0.4 GW from Fujian offshore wind, primarily located in resource-rich areas and load centers [3] - The company has a significant pipeline of offshore wind projects exceeding 5 GW, distributed across Jiangsu, Fujian, and Hainan, which is expected to support profit growth as these projects come online [3] Group 3: Pricing and Policy Environment - The average electricity price for wind power has remained relatively stable, decreasing from 0.49 yuan/kWh in 2017 to 0.47 yuan/kWh in 2024, with expectations for improved pricing dynamics following the issuance of policy document 136 [4] - The acceleration of national subsidy recovery for green electricity companies has been observed since July, with the average trading price of green certificates rising by 35.42% month-on-month to 4.61 yuan per certificate in July [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingzheng International initiates coverage on Longyuan Power (00916) with an "Overweight" rating, highlighting short-term performance pressure due to fluctuations in green electricity prices and volumes, while maintaining optimism about the company's long-term growth potential as a leading wind power enterprise benefiting from policy catalysts and market competition advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 6.431 billion yuan, 7.220 billion yuan, and 7.934 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +0.1%, +12.3%, and +9.9% respectively [1]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the closing price on September 9, 2025, are projected to be 9.4x, 8.4x, and 7.6x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Resource Management - Longyuan Power, as a leading operator backed by the State Energy Group, has a total installed capacity of 43.2 GW as of the end of H1 2025, comprising 31.4 GW of wind power and 11.8 GW of solar power, having completed the divestment of thermal power assets [2]. - The company has a significant advantage in resource allocation, with its wind power installations located in high-quality resource areas and load centers, achieving utilization hours that exceed the national average by approximately 60-160 hours [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Policy Environment - The company has maintained a relatively stable decline in electricity prices, with wind power revenue per kilowatt-hour decreasing from 0.49 yuan in 2017 to 0.47 yuan in 2024 [4]. - Following the issuance of Document No. 136, the company’s green electricity projects are expected to benefit from higher comprehensive pricing and excess returns due to improved output curves and better alignment with load demands [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation that the overall industry performance will outperform the market in the next six months [65]. Core Insights - The public utility sector has shown a recovery in market performance, with the industry index rising by 1.2% during the week of September 1-7, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.38 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 2.01 percentage points [2][11]. - The report highlights the introduction of the "136 Document" in Shaanxi and Zhejiang, which aims to enhance market mechanisms and pricing for renewable energy projects, potentially stabilizing industry profitability [3][35][37]. - The report suggests that the coal price stabilization and improved electricity pricing will enhance the profitability of thermal power companies in the short term, while long-term prospects remain positive due to market reforms [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The public utility industry index's PE (TTM) is currently at 18.06, up from 17.92 the previous week, and higher than 16.53 a year ago [2][23]. - The sector's PB is at 1.81, compared to 1.79 last week and 1.77 a year ago [2][26]. - The report ranks the public utility sector 6th among 31 sectors in terms of performance during the week [11]. 2. Individual Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks include Shanghai Electric (+35.66%), Jingyun Tong (+14.51%), and Luxiao Technology (+13.48%) [3][28]. - Conversely, stocks like Huayin Electric (-10.5%) and China General Nuclear Power (-4.43%) experienced declines [3][28]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The "136 Document" in Shaanxi sets a bidding range for incremental projects at 0.18 to 0.3545 yuan/kWh, while Zhejiang's document proposes a storage price of 0.4153 yuan/kWh [35][37]. - The report notes the release of the "Sichuan Electricity Market Settlement Rules," which will impact independent energy storage pricing [35][39]. 4. Key Data Tracking - As of September 5, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) is 681 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.59% [6][45]. - The total transaction volume for green certificates in wind and solar power reached 12.4 and 16.4 million units, respectively, during the week [48]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on thermal power companies due to expected profit stability and potential dividend increases [7]. - For hydropower, it suggests monitoring stocks that have seen significant pullbacks, while for green energy, it anticipates a stabilization in expected returns following the "136 Document" implementation [7].

Group 1 - Matrix Co., Ltd. announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Anke Technology, introduced a strategic investor, Shenzhen Jifu New Industry Venture Capital Fund, which invested 5 million yuan for a 10% stake [1] - Heng Rui Medicine received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for its Eicosapentaenoic Acid Ethyl Ester Soft Capsule, aimed at reducing triglyceride levels in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia [1] - Mo Gao Co., Ltd. announced the resignation of its Vice President Jin Baoshan due to job transfer [1] Group 2 - Yao Wang Technology decided to terminate two fundraising projects and will permanently supplement the remaining funds into working capital [2] - Minhe Livestock reported sales of 25.53 million chicklings in August, generating revenue of 86.41 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 27.60% [2] - Sichuan Jinding announced the resignation of its Director and General Manager Xiong Jifeng due to personal reasons [3] Group 3 - Taiji Group received approval for clinical trials of its Semaglutide Injection, aimed at blood sugar control in type 2 diabetes patients [5] - Jieput announced plans to increase capital in its affiliate, Suidong Intelligent Technology, with an investment of 5 million yuan for a 5% stake [7] - GeLing Deep Vision's controlling shareholders committed not to reduce their shareholdings for six months starting from September 17, 2025 [8] Group 4 - Huafeng Superfiber reported the resignation of its Vice President Liu Cong due to personal reasons [9] - Xiaoming Co., Ltd. reported sales revenue of 79.90 million yuan from chicken products in August, with year-on-year growth of 11.73% [11] - Lion Head Co., Ltd. announced that its application for issuing shares and cash to acquire assets has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [12] Group 5 - Jinlong Automobile reported a bus sales volume of 4,074 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [43] - Metro Design signed a contract for the Ho Chi Minh City urban rail transit project in Vietnam, with a total amount of 1.754 trillion VND [45] - North New Road and Bridge announced winning a mining construction project worth 504 million yuan [28]

数据来源 :Wind 、国元证券经纪 ( 香港 ) 整理 主要股东 国家能源投资集团 (58.72%) 瑞众人寿保险 (6.36%) 信泰人寿保险 (4.08%) 新加坡政府投资 (3.16%) 龙源电力（0916.HK） 2025-9-9 星期二 | 目标价： | 9.60 | 港元 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现价： | 7.87 | 港元 | | 预计升幅： | 22% | | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2025-9-8 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港元) | 7.87 | | 总股本(亿股) | 83.6 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,253 | | 净资产(亿元) | 881 | | 总资产 (亿元) | 2,692 | | 52 周高低 (港元) | 8.00/4.93 | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.91 | 相关报告 深度报告-20210608 更新报告-20210727/0913/1213 更新报告-20220112/0908/1111 更新报告-202302148/20230508 更新报告-20230906/20240417 更新报告-202410 ...

资料显示，龙源电力集团股份有限公司位于北京市西城区阜成门北大街6号(c幢)20层2006室,香港铜锣湾 希慎道33号利园1期19楼1917室，成立日期1993年1月27日，上市日期2022年1月24日，公司主营业务涉 及电力系统及电气设备的技术改造、技术服务和生产维修;与电力相关的新技术、新设备、新材料、新 工艺的研制、开发、生产、成果转让;电站污染物治理;风力发电、节能技术及其他新能源的技术开发、 项目投资管理;进出口业务;电气设备的租赁;与主营业务相关的咨询服务;承办展览会、展销会;机电产 品、化工原料及制品(危险化学品除外)、建筑材料、五金交电、日用百货、汽车配件、电力系统专用车 辆的销售;出租写字间。主营业务收入构成为：电力产品99.22%，其他收入0.78%。 截至6月30日，龙源电力股东户数4.10万，较上期增加1.18%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。2025 年1月-6月，龙源电力实现营业收入156.57亿元，同比减少17.09%；归母净利润33.75亿元，同比减少 11.82%。 分红方面，龙源电力A股上市后累计派现59.78亿元。近三年，累计派现47.46亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止 ...