Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the silver-gold ratio and the simultaneous rise in copper and aluminum prices due to both domestic and international factors [5][6] - Weak employment data in the U.S. has led to increased expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which is expected to boost precious metals [5][6] - The report suggests that while gold remains a focus for investment, the recovery of the silver-gold ratio indicates potential for silver as well [5][6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the weak performance of the U.S. labor market and its implications for precious metals, particularly gold and silver [5][6] - It suggests that gold stocks may experience a quarterly-level resonance in terms of price, valuation, and style due to anticipated rate cuts [5][6] - For silver, the report advises attention to its potential to converge with gold as inflation expectations rise [5][6] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals have seen a broad increase, with LME copper rising by 1.7% and aluminum by 3.8% [6][27] - The report notes that domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to enhance demand outlook [6] - It indicates that while demand for copper and aluminum may decline in the second half of the year, supply constraints will limit the extent of this decline [6] Strategic and Minor Metals - The report discusses the strategic reassessment of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on their long-term value due to government policies and market dynamics [7] - It highlights the upward price trend for cobalt and nickel, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand in the battery sector [7] - The report also mentions the bottoming out of lithium prices, with a cautious outlook on future price movements [7]

Group 1 - The company Hongchuang Holdings (002379) responded to investor inquiries on September 11, indicating that as of August 29, 2025, the number of shareholders is 19,557 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. by Hongchuang Holdings is a significant move that will enhance the company's asset quality and position it as a leading player in the aluminum industry, with total assets expected to exceed 100 billion yuan and a substantial increase in earnings per share from -0.06 yuan to 1.39 yuan [1][4][17] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Hongchuang Holdings plans to acquire the core assets of China Hongqiao for approximately 63.5 billion yuan, which will allow it to gain 100% ownership of Hongtuo Industrial [1] - The acquisition is progressing smoothly, with Hongchuang Holdings providing comprehensive answers to key issues related to the transaction [1] - Post-acquisition, Hongchuang Holdings' total assets and revenue are projected to surpass 100 billion yuan, positioning it among the top global aluminum companies [1][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hongtuo Industrial achieved a revenue of 76.995 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.071 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 8.64% and 14.63%, respectively [2][3] - After the acquisition, Hongchuang Holdings' total assets are expected to increase from 31.27 billion yuan to 108.026 billion yuan, with revenue rising from 3.486 billion yuan to 150.336 billion yuan and net profit turning from a loss of 689.818 million yuan to a profit of 18.082 billion yuan [4][5] Group 3: Market Position and Growth Potential - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high profit margins due to production capacity limits, benefiting companies like Hongchuang Holdings [7] - The average price of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased by approximately 1.9% year-on-year, indicating a favorable market environment [7] - Hongtuo Industrial's cost advantages, particularly in electricity consumption, position it well for future profitability as it transitions to a "green aluminum" production model [9][12][13] Group 4: Investment Appeal - The anticipated transformation of Hongchuang Holdings into a "chain leader" in the aluminum industry is expected to attract institutional investors and enhance its market valuation [16] - The company is projected to become a "cash cow" with potential for high dividends, as evidenced by the historical performance of its peer, China Hongqiao, which has maintained a high dividend payout ratio [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. by Hongchuang Holdings is a significant move that will enhance the company's asset quality and position it as a leading player in the global aluminum industry, with total assets and revenue expected to exceed 100 billion yuan post-acquisition [1][4][15]. Company Summary - Hongchuang Holdings plans to acquire 100% of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 63.5 billion yuan, which will enable the company to transform into a comprehensive aluminum industry leader [1]. - Post-acquisition, Hongchuang's total assets are projected to increase from 31.27 billion yuan to 108.03 billion yuan, and revenue is expected to rise from 3.49 billion yuan to 150.34 billion yuan, with net profit turning from a loss of 689.82 million yuan to a profit of 18.08 billion yuan [3][4]. - The earnings per share will significantly improve from -0.06 yuan to 1.39 yuan, indicating a substantial upgrade in the company's financial performance [3][4]. Industry Summary - The aluminum processing industry is currently facing challenges due to high raw material prices and declining consumer product prices, but the acquisition presents an opportunity for Hongchuang to reshape its fundamentals [2]. - Shandong Hongtuo has a substantial production capacity, with an annual output of 6.459 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 19 million tons of alumina, which will significantly enhance Hongchuang's operational scale [2][10]. - The domestic aluminum market is expected to maintain high profit margins due to supply constraints, with the average price of aluminum rising by approximately 1.9% year-on-year [6][8]. - The shift of aluminum production capacity to lower-cost regions, such as Yunnan, will further reduce costs and enhance profitability for Hongtuo, which is already leveraging clean energy resources [10][11]. Future Outlook - The acquisition is anticipated to attract institutional investors due to the improved fundamentals and growth prospects of Hongchuang, with the stock price expected to rise significantly post-restructuring [14]. - Hongchuang is positioned to become a "cash cow" in the A-share market, with potential for high dividend payouts based on its projected earnings [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Hongchuang Holdings in the first half of 2025 reveals significant operational pressure, with a revenue decline of 13.82% year-on-year and a net profit loss of 539.64% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hongchuang Holdings reported a revenue of 1.448 billion yuan, down 13.82% year-on-year, and a net profit of -118 million yuan, down 539.64% year-on-year [1] - The company has experienced net losses in its interim reports for three consecutive years, with a second-quarter net profit of -62 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.15% [1] Group 2: Business Challenges - The core product lineup of Hongchuang Holdings is under significant pressure, particularly in the lower-margin processing products, indicating a compression of pricing power in the traditional aluminum processing sector [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to both external factors, such as weak international demand due to trade environment fluctuations, and internal factors, including a failure to establish a differentiated competitive advantage amid a market shift towards high-value-added products [1] Group 3: Cost and Operational Issues - The company faces escalating operational vulnerabilities due to uncontrolled costs, with raw material price fluctuations and rising energy costs eroding gross margins beyond expectations [2] - The strategy of extending supplier payment cycles to alleviate cash flow pressure may lead to decreased supplier cooperation and potential risks to raw material stability [2] - The increase in sales and management expenses amidst declining revenue highlights inefficiencies in operational structure optimization during a period of scale contraction [2] Group 4: Transformation and Investment - The transformation efforts of Hongchuang Holdings appear to be caught in a paradox of high consumption and low output, with significant funds tied up in construction projects and advance equipment payments, negatively impacting asset liquidity [3] - The surge in consulting fees and management expenses during the restructuring process indicates substantial resource consumption without visible revenue growth, raising doubts about the pace of transformation among capital market participants [3] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - To navigate through the current challenges, the company needs to balance short-term cash flow management with long-term strategic focus on technology differentiation, particularly in high-end products like battery aluminum foil [4] - The company should concentrate limited R&D resources on specific high-end products and consider technology licensing as an alternative to heavy asset expansion [4]

Market Overview - On September 4, the industrial metals sector fell by 4.23%, with Huayu Mining leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3765.88, down 1.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12118.7, down 2.83% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Yian Technology (300328) with a closing price of 18.60, up 3.91% [1] - Asia Pacific Technology (002540) at 6.58, up 3.46% [1] - Significant decliners included: - Huayu Mining (601020) at 24.65, down 10.00% [2] - Baiyin Nonferrous (601212) at 3.82, down 9.69% [2] - Luoyang Jiyie (603993) at 12.44, down 8.86% [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The industrial metals sector experienced a net outflow of 3.687 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.769 billion yuan [2][3] - The trading volume for individual stocks varied, with notable figures such as: - Huayu Mining with a trading volume of 796,900 shares [2] - Baiyin Nonferrous with 4,925,700 shares [2] Capital Inflow Analysis - Key stocks with significant main fund inflows included: - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) with a net inflow of 71.11 million yuan [3] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532) with a net inflow of 34.90 million yuan [3] - Conversely, stocks like Tianshan Aluminum saw a retail net outflow of 56.38 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The independent financial advisors have provided a response to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding the review inquiry letter for Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Holdings Co., Ltd.'s application for asset acquisition through share issuance, indicating that the company's sustainable operation capability is not expected to undergo significant adverse changes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China has strict capacity control, with no new capacity registrations since 2017, leading to a near supply-demand balance with a production capacity of 44.62 million tons per year as of 2024 [2][4]. - The global alumina production is projected to reach 146 million tons in 2024, with China's alumina production at 85.81 million tons, indicating a stable demand primarily driven by electrolytic aluminum smelting [2][6]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum in China is expected to grow, with consumption reaching 45.18 million tons in 2024, accounting for 62.2% of global consumption [6][10]. Group 2: Company Position and Competitive Landscape - Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum is a leading enterprise in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a production capacity of 6.459 million tons, representing 14.48% of the domestic total, and ranks second in the industry [11][12]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top ten companies accounting for 72% of the total capacity, which helps maintain a stable market structure [11][12]. - The company benefits from significant advantages in technology, cost, and market position, ensuring its competitive edge in the industry [11][12]. Group 3: Capacity Transfer and Future Plans - The company plans to transfer 3.96 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with 1.488 million tons already completed by the end of 2024 [18][20]. - The capacity transfer aligns with national policies promoting sustainable development and is expected to enhance the company's profitability and operational sustainability [19][20]. - The company has established a clear plan for capacity transfer from 2025 to 2027, with specific targets for each year [22]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Asset Management - The company has adequately provided for fixed asset impairment, with a total impairment provision of 3.484 billion yuan as of the end of 2024, primarily due to expected shutdowns related to capacity transfer [22]. - The company maintains a strong liquidity position, with a current ratio between 3.08 and 5.85, indicating robust debt repayment capabilities [21]. - The overall financial health is supported by a significant amount of current assets, ensuring that the company can meet its obligations without major risks [21].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holdings Co., Ltd. is responding to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's inquiry regarding its asset purchase application, highlighting the valuation methods and results of its assets, which indicate significant appreciation in value. Asset Valuation Summary - The transaction employs both asset-based and income approaches for asset valuation, with the asset-based approach concluding a total equity value of 63.518 billion yuan, reflecting an appreciation of 20.778 billion yuan and a growth rate of 48.62% [1][2]. - The assessed assets include 43 subsidiaries, with 39 wholly-owned, 2 controlled, and 2 affiliated companies. Valuation for wholly-owned and controlling subsidiaries is based on net asset values multiplied by ownership percentages, while affiliated companies are valued based on their reported net assets [1][2]. - The primary sources of asset appreciation are inventory, fixed assets, construction in progress, and land use rights. Inventory valuation increases are attributed to profit considerations in semi-finished products, while fixed asset appreciation is due to rising replacement costs and longer economic lifespans compared to accounting depreciation [1][2][3]. - The transaction's price-to-earnings ratio is 3.49, lower than the industry average of 10.61 and comparable transaction average of 18.35, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.49, similar to the industry average of 1.52 [1][2]. Detailed Asset Assessment - The valuation of major asset categories under the asset-based approach shows significant increases, with total asset appreciation amounting to 19.81395 billion yuan, representing 95.36% of the total asset appreciation [1][2][3]. - Specific asset categories and their valuation methods include: - **Inventory**: Valued using replacement cost method, resulting in an increase of 800.49 million yuan [1][2][3]. - **Fixed Assets**: Valued using replacement cost method, leading to an increase of 6.7102857 billion yuan [1][2][3]. - **Land Use Rights**: Valued using market comparison and cost approach, resulting in an increase of 3.6277185 billion yuan [1][2][3]. - **Construction in Progress**: Valued considering reasonable financing costs, contributing to overall asset appreciation [1][2][3]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiaries engaged in electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum deep processing hold significant operational assets, leading to higher valuation increases compared to trading or under-construction subsidiaries [1][2][3]. - The top ten subsidiaries account for 89.21% of the total asset appreciation, with a combined increase of 18.536 billion yuan [1][2][3].

山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司 关于深圳证券交易所 《关于山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司 发行股份购买资产申请的审核问询函》之 回复（修订稿） 独立财务顾问 签署日期：二〇二五年九月 深圳证券交易所： 按照贵所下发的《关于山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司发行股份购买资产申 请的审核问询函》（审核函〔2025〕130009 号）（以下简称"审核问询函"） 的要求，山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、"上市公司"或 "宏创控股"）及相关中介机构就审核问询函所提问题进行了认真讨论分析，并 按照要求在《山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司发行股份购买资产暨关联交易报告 书（草案）（修订稿）》（以下简称"重组报告书"）中进行了补充披露，现将 相关回复说明如下。 如无特别说明，本审核问询函回复（以下简称"本回复"）所述的词语或简 称与重组报告书中"释义"所定义的词语或简称具有相关的含义。在本回复中， 若合计数与各分项数值相加之和在尾数上存在差异，均为四舍五入所致。本回复 所引用的财务数据和财务指标，如无特殊说明，指合并报表口径的财务数据和根 据该类财务数据计算的财务指标。 | 审核问询函所列问题 | 黑体（加粗） | | - ...

关于《山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司关于<关于山东宏创 铝业控股股份有限公司发行股份购买资产申请的审核问询 函>（审核函〔2025〕130009 号）之反馈意见回复》 资产评估相关问题答复之核查意见（修订稿） 深圳证券交易所： 山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司收到贵所于 2025 年 7 月 1 日下发的《关于 山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司发行股份购买资产申请的审核问询函》（审核函 〔2025〕130009 号）（以下简称"《问询函》"。根据《问询函》的要求，中 联资产评估集团有限公司技术支持中心组织评估项目组对《问询函》的答复进行 了认真研究、分析和核查，并出具了本核查意见，现将核查具体情况汇报如下： 1 问题四、关于资产基础法评估 申请文件显示：（1）本次交易采用资产基础法和收益法对标的资产进行评 估，并以资产基础法作为最终评估结论，标的资产股东全部权益评估值为 635.18 亿元，增值额为 207.78 亿元，增值率为 48.62%。（2）截至评估基准日，标的 资产共有 43 家下属单位，其中 39 家全资、2 家控股、2 家参股，对于全资及持 股 50%以上的控股子公司，按照被投资单位评估基准日净资产评估值 ...