Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" trend is reshaping supply and demand in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, accelerating the parity of solar storage in core markets and opening up new scenarios for future demand [1][3][5] - Global demand for solar energy is expected to grow significantly, with projected new installations of approximately 600GW in 2025 and 610GW in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of about 13.21% and 1.67% respectively [3][6] - The domestic and overseas production capacity is rapidly increasing, leading to a significant oversupply in the PV industry, which has resulted in continuous price declines and losses for many companies [5][6] Group 2 - The penetration rate of low-silver and silver-free technologies is expected to rise quickly, with leading companies likely to recover profitability ahead of the industry [1][22] - The article highlights that the profitability of auxiliary material companies is expected to improve as they diversify their business, with a focus on non-PV sectors [1][36] - The article identifies key beneficiaries in the market, including companies that lead in low-silver and silver-free technology iterations, such as Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar, which are expected to benefit from cost advantages [1][46] Group 3 - The article discusses the impact of rising silver prices on the cost structure of solar cell manufacturers, indicating that the cost of silver paste is becoming a critical factor for cost reduction [22][23] - The introduction of new technologies, such as high-copper and pure copper solutions, is accelerating in the industry, which is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [25][27] - The demand for space photovoltaics is anticipated to grow due to an increase in space launch missions, with a projected 263 launches in 2024, indicating a strong short-term demand for solar wings in low Earth orbit [29] Group 4 - The article notes that the profitability of battery materials is expected to improve as the pressure from the main chain eases, with low-silver and silver-free iterations likely to bring new benefits [36][39] - The photovoltaic glass sector is also expected to see a recovery in profitability due to industry self-discipline and a reduction in supply, with prices showing signs of recovery [41][46] - The article concludes with investment recommendations, suggesting that companies leading in low-silver and silver-free technology, as well as those involved in energy storage, are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market changes [46]

（来源：晶澳科技 JA Solar） STEK 三 P 7生间 201.93kWp 光伏车棚覆盖社区 将每一缕阳光转化为绿色电力 让尖端人才的日常，运行在清洁能源之上 > Q 215kwh/储能系统稳定运行 如同社区的"能量银行" 保障每一刻用电从容，支撑每一次创新进发 JA HENERGY Q 32个 直流快充终端全面布局 以极速补能体验 无缝对接人才高效奋进的生活节奏 10个 V2G智能桩开启双向赋能 技术隐于便捷体验之后 绿色融入日常生活的脉搏 我们构建的不只是设施 更是可感知、可参与、可共享的 未来社区能源样板 晶澳智慧能源 让电动汽车在停驻时 井思思ふらさより出ず出年ぶ O 品能参与什么能源问 | 实现真正的车与城协同共生 A 在这里 以科技之力，担时代之责 从张江出发 走向更广阔的未来场景 让每一座建筑都能发电 （来源：晶澳科技 JA Solar） 当尖端科技注入社区温度 晶澳智慧能源 以领先的光储充一体化系统 为张江人才公寓 注入可持续发展的智慧能量 以极速补能体验 无缝对接人才高效奋进的生活节奏 p Q 10个 /v2G智能桩开启双向赋能 让电动汽车在停驻时 也能参与社区能源调节 实现真正的车 ...

Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is facing a financial crisis, with nearly ten leading companies reporting significant losses for 2025, indicating a downturn across the entire supply chain [1] - The industry is experiencing overcapacity and intense competition, leading to a decline in profitability despite a surge in installation capacity driven by policy changes [1][8] - The cancellation of export tax rebates starting April 1, 2026, is expected to increase cost pressures on companies, intensifying competition and survival challenges [1][10] Company-Specific Insights - Tongwei Co., Ltd. anticipates a net loss of 90 to 100 billion yuan for 2025, marking a significant increase from a loss of 70.39 billion yuan in the previous year, potentially making it the largest loss among disclosed forecasts [3] - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 60 to 65 billion yuan for 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a loss of 85.92 billion yuan the previous year [6] - JA Solar Technology is projected to incur a net loss of 45 to 48 billion yuan, which may impact its employee incentive plans due to a significant gap between performance targets and actual results [4] - Aiko Solar anticipates a reduced loss of 12 to 19 billion yuan for 2025, down from 53.19 billion yuan, attributed to increased sales of high-value products [6] - Daqo New Energy expects a net loss of 10 to 13 billion yuan, while other companies like Junda and Shichuang Energy also project losses due to supply-demand imbalances [7] Market Dynamics - The solar power sector's new installations reached 274.89 GW from January to November 2025, nearing the total for 2024, with expectations to exceed 300 GW for the year [2] - The industry is witnessing a trend of mergers and acquisitions as companies face survival pressures due to limited funding sources [2][12] - The overall industry is characterized by a significant mismatch between supply and demand, with production capacity far exceeding actual market needs [8] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the cancellation of export tax rebates will lead to increased operational pressures in the short term but may encourage a shift towards value competition in the long term [10][11] - The industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring phase in 2026, with potential for a rebound if excess capacity is reduced and supply-demand balance is restored [12][13]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [2] - The industrial added value increased by 5.9%, while the service sector grew by 5.4%. Retail sales totaled 501202 billion yuan, up by 3.7% [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with a notable decline in real estate investment [3] Trade and Investment - Canada has reduced the import tax on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, allowing an annual quota of 49,000 vehicles, which is a significant policy shift aimed at filling market gaps [4][5] - The adjustment in tariffs is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese electric vehicles in the Canadian market, which has seen a decline in sales due to high costs and tariffs [5] Real Estate Market - In December 2025, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3%, with a notable increase in Shanghai, while overall new home sales area decreased by 8.7% year-on-year [6] - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with a significant reduction in new supply and ongoing inventory pressure [7] Mobile Phone Industry - Several smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi and OPPO, have lowered their annual shipment forecasts due to rising storage costs, with reductions exceeding 20% for some brands [8] - The impact of rising storage prices is uneven across manufacturers, with larger firms like Apple and Samsung less affected [9] Solar Industry - Nine leading solar companies, including LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., have announced expected losses for 2025, with Tongwei projecting a loss of 90 to 100 billion yuan [10] - The solar industry is facing significant challenges, including high inventory levels and price competition, leading to a prolonged period of losses [11] Wealth Disparity - The global wealth of billionaires reached a record 18.3 trillion USD in 2025, with a 16% increase in total wealth, highlighting a growing wealth gap amid stagnant poverty reduction efforts [12][13] - The AI sector's growth has significantly contributed to the increase in billionaire wealth, while ordinary residents face declining purchasing power due to inflation [13] Space Tourism - A startup has announced the opening of reservations for the world's first lunar hotel, aiming to begin operations by 2032, although the feasibility of such a project remains uncertain [14][15]

行业景气度是业绩胜负手 A股市场已有超过350家公司发布2025年度业绩预告，一幅清晰的产业景气度"分野图"就此展开。 业绩预告数据显示，在全球科技浪潮与商品周期驱动下，半导体、有色金属行业业绩耀眼，龙头公司普 遍实现高增长；而曾备受瞩目的光伏产业则因产能过剩、价格内卷深陷亏损，多家龙头预亏合计超300 亿元。更为引人深思的是，商业航天、AI应用等此前遭资金热捧的赛道，多数公司业绩预告亏损，凸 显概念炒作后基本面与估值的严重脱节。 综观已披露的业绩预告，A股市场正在经历一场从"预期叙事"到"报表验证"的切换，市场资金正基于业 绩真实成色进行博弈与调仓，业绩确定性已成为当前市场的核心锚点。 半导体业绩实现高增长，光伏龙头陷亏损泥潭 目前已披露的2025年业绩预告清晰地刻画了不同产业周期的分化态势。其中，受益于全球人工智能基础 设施建设浪潮及存储芯片的涨价周期，半导体产业链成为业绩增长的"优等生"。 佰维存储（688525.SH）预计2025年营收、净利均创历史新高。公司预计全年实现营业收入100亿元至 120亿元，同比增长49.36%至79.23%；实现归母净利润8.5亿元至10亿元，同比增长427.19%至 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple leading photovoltaic companies have recently announced expected losses for 2025, with a total estimated loss of 28.9 billion to 32.8 billion yuan among five companies [1]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a loss of 6.8 billion to 7.4 billion yuan when excluding non-recurring items [1]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) anticipates a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, also excluding non-recurring items [2]. - Aiko Solar Energy (爱旭股份) projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with a loss of 1.6 billion to 2.3 billion yuan when excluding non-recurring items [2]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) expects a net loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan for 2025 [4]. - JA Solar Technology (晶澳科技) forecasts a net loss of 4.5 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a mismatch in supply and demand, with low operating rates and ongoing price competition leading to a challenging business environment [1]. - The industry has experienced a significant increase in costs for silver paste and silicon materials, which has further pressured the profitability of companies [1]. - The overall installed capacity growth in the photovoltaic sector has slowed down in the second half of the year, contributing to a phase of oversupply [2]. - The structural overcapacity in the industry has not improved significantly, with core raw material prices continuing to rise while product prices remain low [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has indicated that 2026 will see intensified efforts to regulate capacity and manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects to achieve a dynamic balance in capacity [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its industrialization, and the potential for space photovoltaic technology is promising [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and government support [3][6] - The report highlights the strong performance of various segments within the power equipment industry, including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic technologies [3] Industry Trends - The electric equipment sector saw a 0.79% increase, outperforming the market, with lithium batteries rising by 1.5% and new energy vehicles by 1.29% [3] - The report notes that the global energy storage system shipments are expected to reach 498 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 99% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of government investment in energy storage and new energy sectors, with significant projects underway in regions like Jiangxi [3] Company Performance - Companies like Keda and Zhenyu Technology are expected to see substantial profit growth, with Keda projecting a net profit increase of 52.21%-67.43% for 2025 [3] - The report mentions that major companies are entering strategic partnerships and expanding their production capacities, such as Ganfeng Lithium and CATL [3][4] - The report also highlights the expected losses for companies like Junda and Longi Green Energy, indicating challenges in the current market environment [3][4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strong outlook for energy storage, lithium batteries, and solid-state technologies, recommending investments in leading companies such as CATL, Sunpower, and Sanyuan Electric [3][4] - It emphasizes the potential for growth in the humanoid robotics sector, with Tesla leading the market and significant opportunities for component manufacturers [6] - The report advises investors to focus on companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market channels, particularly in the AIDC sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - Several leading photovoltaic companies have announced significant expected losses for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry due to supply-demand imbalances and rising raw material costs [1][2][3]. Company Summaries - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) expects a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, citing unresolved supply-demand issues and rising prices of core raw materials [1]. - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) anticipates a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, highlighting ongoing low operating rates and increased costs due to rising prices of silver paste and silicon materials [1]. - Aiko Solar Energy (爱旭股份) projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, attributing this to structural overcapacity and sustained low product prices [1]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) expects a net loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan for 2025 [2]. - JA Solar Technology (晶澳科技) forecasts a net loss of 4.5 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2025, contributing to a total expected loss of over 28.9 billion yuan for these five leading companies [3]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant price fluctuations since 2025, leading to widespread losses among companies [4]. - The Chinese government plans to strengthen capacity regulation and manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects to address the ongoing challenges in the industry [4]. - Experts suggest that merely relying on government initiatives may not be sufficient, and additional measures may be necessary to stabilize the industry [4][5]. - The industry has experienced a continuous loss trend for eight quarters, with a 33% reduction in workforce in 2024, and an increase in average interest-bearing debt ratio from 23% to 31% [5].

爱旭股份 预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润亏损为 12—19亿元 。公司表示， 受行业结构性产能过剩影响，供需失衡状况仍未显著改善，主要产品价格持续处于相对低位， 公司全年经营承压。 此前，已有多家光伏企业公告预亏。 记者丨刘雪莹 冉黎黎 编辑丨曾静娇 昨夜，多家光伏龙头公告业绩预亏。 1月18日晚， 通威股份 业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润亏损 90亿元至100亿元 。 通威股份表示，光伏行业阶段性供需矛盾问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节 开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材料价格持续上涨，产品价格同比继续下跌，行业经营压力仍 然显著。 同日， 隆基绿能 公告， 预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的 净亏损为 60亿元到65亿元 。公司指出，2025年光伏行业供需错配、低价内卷式竞争持续，开工率维持低位，同时国内电 力市场化改革不断深入，海外贸易壁垒持续加剧，光伏企业经营环境严峻复杂。四季度银浆、 硅料成本大幅上涨，显著推升了硅片、电池及组件产品成本，企业经营进一步承压。 据《中国能源报》报道，根据中国光伏行业协会的数据，2025年以来，光伏供应链价格波动明 显， 电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant losses, with major companies like Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and Aiko Solar all forecasting substantial net losses for 2025, indicating a challenging market environment driven by overcapacity and rising raw material costs [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of approximately 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, citing increased costs of silver paste and silicon materials as key factors [1]. - Tongwei Co. is projected to incur a net loss of 82 billion to 96 billion yuan for 2025, with product prices remaining low and insufficient cost transmission impacting profitability [1]. - Aiko Solar anticipates a net loss of 45 billion to 48 billion yuan for 2025, while TCL Zhonghuan expects a loss of 12 billion to 19 billion yuan, both companies highlighting the impact of structural overcapacity on their operations [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The photovoltaic sector has experienced nine consecutive quarters of losses since Q4 2023, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances exacerbating the situation [2]. - Industry experts emphasize the need for capacity clearing and structural optimization, suggesting that companies must move beyond simple production cuts to enhance competitive advantages through technology and product differentiation [2]. - TCL Zhonghuan's acquisition of Yida Energy marks a significant step towards industry consolidation, aiming to optimize resources and foster collaboration, which could help the sector transition from low-level competition to value co-creation [2].