Core Viewpoint - Several leading photovoltaic companies have announced significant expected losses for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry due to supply-demand imbalances and rising raw material costs [1][2][3]. Company Summaries - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) expects a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, citing unresolved supply-demand issues and rising prices of core raw materials [1]. - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) anticipates a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, highlighting ongoing low operating rates and increased costs due to rising prices of silver paste and silicon materials [1]. - Aiko Solar Energy (爱旭股份) projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, attributing this to structural overcapacity and sustained low product prices [1]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) expects a net loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan for 2025 [2]. - JA Solar Technology (晶澳科技) forecasts a net loss of 4.5 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2025, contributing to a total expected loss of over 28.9 billion yuan for these five leading companies [3]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant price fluctuations since 2025, leading to widespread losses among companies [4]. - The Chinese government plans to strengthen capacity regulation and manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects to address the ongoing challenges in the industry [4]. - Experts suggest that merely relying on government initiatives may not be sufficient, and additional measures may be necessary to stabilize the industry [4][5]. - The industry has experienced a continuous loss trend for eight quarters, with a 33% reduction in workforce in 2024, and an increase in average interest-bearing debt ratio from 23% to 31% [5].

爱旭股份 预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润亏损为 12—19亿元 。公司表示， 受行业结构性产能过剩影响，供需失衡状况仍未显著改善，主要产品价格持续处于相对低位， 公司全年经营承压。 此前，已有多家光伏企业公告预亏。 记者丨刘雪莹 冉黎黎 编辑丨曾静娇 昨夜，多家光伏龙头公告业绩预亏。 1月18日晚， 通威股份 业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润亏损 90亿元至100亿元 。 通威股份表示，光伏行业阶段性供需矛盾问题尚未缓解，产业链各环节 开工率下行，白银等部分核心原材料价格持续上涨，产品价格同比继续下跌，行业经营压力仍 然显著。 同日， 隆基绿能 公告， 预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的 净亏损为 60亿元到65亿元 。公司指出，2025年光伏行业供需错配、低价内卷式竞争持续，开工率维持低位，同时国内电 力市场化改革不断深入，海外贸易壁垒持续加剧，光伏企业经营环境严峻复杂。四季度银浆、 硅料成本大幅上涨，显著推升了硅片、电池及组件产品成本，企业经营进一步承压。 据《中国能源报》报道，根据中国光伏行业协会的数据，2025年以来，光伏供应链价格波动明 显， 电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant losses, with major companies like Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and Aiko Solar all forecasting substantial net losses for 2025, indicating a challenging market environment driven by overcapacity and rising raw material costs [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of approximately 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, citing increased costs of silver paste and silicon materials as key factors [1]. - Tongwei Co. is projected to incur a net loss of 82 billion to 96 billion yuan for 2025, with product prices remaining low and insufficient cost transmission impacting profitability [1]. - Aiko Solar anticipates a net loss of 45 billion to 48 billion yuan for 2025, while TCL Zhonghuan expects a loss of 12 billion to 19 billion yuan, both companies highlighting the impact of structural overcapacity on their operations [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The photovoltaic sector has experienced nine consecutive quarters of losses since Q4 2023, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances exacerbating the situation [2]. - Industry experts emphasize the need for capacity clearing and structural optimization, suggesting that companies must move beyond simple production cuts to enhance competitive advantages through technology and product differentiation [2]. - TCL Zhonghuan's acquisition of Yida Energy marks a significant step towards industry consolidation, aiming to optimize resources and foster collaboration, which could help the sector transition from low-level competition to value co-creation [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the "space photovoltaic" sector, indicating it as a key investment theme for 2026, driven by strong demand and geopolitical narratives [7][8]. Core Insights - The space photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant advancements, primarily among companies already established in the sector, highlighting the high barriers to entry [7][8]. - The Chinese photovoltaic supply chain is expected to accelerate the growth of the space photovoltaic market, benefiting from the U.S. demand for "self-sufficiency" in solar products [7][8]. - The wind power and grid equipment sectors have also received substantial positive catalysts, with notable developments in offshore wind projects and significant investments planned by the State Grid [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Space Photovoltaics - Recent developments in the space photovoltaic sector include strategic partnerships and investments by companies like JunDa and Dongfang Risen, focusing on advanced technologies such as perovskite and HJT cells [8][9]. - The U.S. is facing a critical need for domestic solar supply chains due to trade barriers, which presents a significant opportunity for Chinese companies to capitalize on this demand [11][12]. Wind Power - The UK government has signed contracts for 8.4GW of offshore wind projects, exceeding market expectations, which strengthens the outlook for domestic supply chain exports [13][14]. - The auction results indicate a favorable pricing environment for developers, enhancing the profitability of future projects [14]. Grid Equipment - The State Grid's investment plan of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan represents a 40% increase from the previous plan, establishing a strong foundation for long-term growth in the grid sector [3][15]. - The aging infrastructure in North America is driving demand for new transformers and grid solutions, creating opportunities for companies like Siyuan Electric and Jinpan Technology [17][19]. Lithium Batteries - New regulations on battery recycling are set to take effect in April 2026, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive management system for used batteries [22][23]. - Companies like Fulin Precision are expanding their production capabilities in lithium iron phosphate batteries, indicating a positive trend in the lithium battery market [25][26]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The hydrogen industry is poised for growth, with significant policy support and increasing sales of hydrogen vehicles expected in the coming years [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the overall sector still in a state of loss, as evidenced by the recent earnings forecasts from major companies indicating significant expected losses for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) expects a net loss of approximately 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, primarily due to rising costs of silver paste and silicon materials [3]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) anticipates the highest loss among the companies, with a projected net loss of 90 billion to 100 billion yuan for 2025, despite some performance improvement from rising polysilicon prices [2][3]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) forecasts a net loss of 82 billion to 96 billion yuan for 2025, with product prices remaining low and insufficient cost transmission [2][3]. - JA Solar (晶澳科技) and Aiko Solar (爱旭股份) expect net losses of 45 billion to 48 billion yuan and 12 billion to 19 billion yuan, respectively, citing structural overcapacity as a significant challenge [3]. - Trina Solar (天合光能) and JinkoSolar (晶科能源) have not disclosed specific loss amounts but have indicated continued losses for 2025 [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The losses among these nine major companies are correlated with their production capacity, indicating that larger companies are experiencing greater losses [2]. - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale to a competition based on the ability to reduce losses, with Tongwei being the only company to see an increase in loss magnitude for 2025 compared to 2024 [4]. - The overall industry has faced nine consecutive quarters of losses since the fourth quarter of 2023, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances [4]. - Companies are urged to break away from homogeneous competition and build comprehensive advantages through technology, products, and ecosystems [4].

Group 1 - Leading photovoltaic module companies are accelerating their entry into the energy storage sector, with companies like Canadian Solar, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, and LONGi Green Energy making significant moves in this area [3][4] - The energy storage market is a key focus for photovoltaic companies, with both commercial and residential storage sectors being targeted for development [3] Group 2 - Photovoltaic companies have two main advantages in entering the energy storage field: strong customer and channel alignment, and established global sales and service systems that facilitate market expansion [4] - The trend of integrating photovoltaic and energy storage projects is becoming more prevalent, especially in countries with underdeveloped electricity markets and in mature markets where bundled projects can secure higher Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices [4] Group 3 - The growth potential for photovoltaic companies in the energy storage sector is significant, with three key indicators to assess their success: commitment to entering the storage market, expansion in overseas markets over the next 1-2 years, and the ability to convert channel, brand, and service advantages into profit contributions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in polysilicon futures prices entering 2026, with a year-to-date drop of 13.92% as of January 16, 2026, erasing gains since August 2025 and repeatedly falling below the critical threshold of 50,000 yuan/ton [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The trading volume and open interest for polysilicon have sharply decreased, with the weighted index's open interest falling below 90,000 contracts, only about 20% of last year's peak of 444,400 contracts [2][12]. - The recent price drop is attributed to weak supply and demand dynamics, alongside panic selling triggered by rumors of antitrust actions affecting major polysilicon producers [2][4][6]. Policy Impact - A new policy from China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration, effective April 1, 2026, will eliminate VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products, which may lead to short-term export demand but is expected to benefit the photovoltaic industry in the long run [4][10]. - In anticipation of this policy, prices for various photovoltaic products have increased, but polysilicon futures have not followed suit, indicating market disruptions [4][8]. Supply and Demand Analysis - January 2026 polysilicon production is estimated at around 107,000 tons, while demand is projected to be less than 80,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply situation [6][10]. - The production of downstream components, such as battery cells and modules, has also decreased, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [6][10]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market rumors regarding antitrust measures have amplified market volatility, leading to a rapid exit of long positions and contributing to the price decline [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that market participants should verify the authenticity of such rumors and consider the fundamental supply-demand conditions before making investment decisions [6][9]. Industry Challenges - The article highlights that regardless of market rumors, polysilicon prices were likely to decline due to the unsustainable price increases seen in 2025, which have not been matched by price increases in other segments of the photovoltaic supply chain [8][9]. - Companies in the downstream photovoltaic sector, such as TCL Zhonghuan, have reported significant losses due to the rising costs of polysilicon, which have not been adequately passed down the supply chain [9][10]. Regulatory Environment - The recent tightening of trading regulations by the exchange aims to curb speculative trading, which has contributed to the decline in trading volume and open interest in polysilicon futures [12][13]. - There are concerns that polysilicon futures could become marginalized, similar to the fate of coal futures, but analysts believe that the strategic importance of the photovoltaic industry will prevent this outcome [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon prices and trading volumes is attributed to weak supply-demand dynamics and market rumors regarding antitrust issues, leading to panic selling among investors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 16, polysilicon futures have seen a year-to-date decline of 13.92%, erasing gains since August and frequently falling below the critical threshold of 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume and open interest for polysilicon have significantly decreased, with open interest dropping to around 84,296 contracts, only 20% of last year's peak [9]. - The recent market sentiment has been exacerbated by rumors of antitrust actions against leading polysilicon companies, causing further panic among investors [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The supply of polysilicon remains high, with January production estimated at around 107,000 tons, while demand is projected to be less than 80,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply [4]. - Downstream production rates for solar cells and modules have also decreased, reflecting weak end-user demand [4]. - The overall market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, which is pressuring prices and leading to inventory accumulation [4]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The Chinese government announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which may create short-term export demand but is expected to benefit the industry in the long run [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to alleviate price competition within the photovoltaic industry, but the recent price surge in polysilicon has not been matched by increases in other segments, leading to operational pressures on downstream companies [6][7]. Group 4: Trading Regulations - The recent decline in trading volumes is partly due to the exchange implementing stricter risk control measures to curb speculative trading, which has raised transaction costs and reduced arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for polysilicon futures to become a "zombie product" similar to coal futures if trading continues to cool [9]. - Despite current challenges, the futures market is expected to remain relevant due to the strategic importance of the photovoltaic industry in China [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power equipment industry, particularly in the renewable energy sector, with significant investments and technological advancements expected to drive growth [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the State Grid's investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2]. - The report emphasizes the stability in polysilicon prices and the continuous rise in battery component prices, with N-type battery prices increasing to 0.40 yuan per watt [15][16]. - The report identifies three key areas of focus: supply-side reform leading to price increases in the industry chain, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts [16]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - Polysilicon prices remain stable, while battery component prices are on the rise, with N-type battery prices reaching an average of 0.40 yuan per watt [15]. - The report notes that leading component companies are responding to industry self-discipline by raising component prices, with distributed sales prices reaching 0.72 yuan per watt [15][16]. - Key companies to watch include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar [16]. 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction results exceeded expectations, with a total scale of approximately 8.4GW, validating the upward trend in European offshore wind [17]. - The State Grid's investment is expected to enhance transmission capacity significantly, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy delivery [18]. - Companies to focus on include Goldwind, Yunda Wind Power, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy [18]. 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - By 2025, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China are projected to reach 7,797 units, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [20]. - The report anticipates that new energy storage installations will reach 58.6GW/175.3GWh by 2025, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector [21]. - Key players in the hydrogen sector include Shuangliang Energy, Huadian Heavy Industries, and Shenghui Technology [20]. 2. New Energy Vehicles - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with several automakers making progress towards mass production by 2026 [29]. - Companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Chery are expected to achieve significant milestones in solid-state battery technology [29]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Xiamen Tungsten, Hailiang Co., and Nanjing Advanced Lithium Battery [29]. 3. Industry Trends - The report notes a 0.4% increase in the new energy equipment sector from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 5.3% since the beginning of the year [12]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 3.52% increase, while the wind power equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.28% during the same period [13].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) module industry is experiencing an unexpected price surge in early 2026, driven by the impending cancellation of export tax rebates and rising costs of key materials like silver and aluminum, leading to significant profit compression and potential industry-wide upheaval [1][7][19]. Price Surge and Market Dynamics - Several distributed PV investment companies have reported sudden price increases on previously agreed contracts, with one leading manufacturer raising prices from 0.73 yuan/W to 0.8 yuan/W [2]. - On January 13, Trina Solar announced a collective price increase for various distributed PV module models, with official guidance prices ranging from 0.85 to 0.89+ yuan/W [2][3]. - A total of 12 module manufacturers raised their prices this week, with increases ranging from 0.04 to 0.15 yuan/W [4]. Cost Factors - The cancellation of export tax rebates, effective April 1, 2026, is a significant catalyst for the price increases, as companies rush to fulfill orders before the policy takes effect [7][8]. - The price of silver has surged over 150% in 2025, increasing its cost share in PV modules from approximately 17% to around 30%, making it the largest cost component [10][13]. - The rising prices of aluminum and other materials have further exacerbated cost pressures, with aluminum's cost share increasing from 8-12% to 12-15% [14][16]. Industry Overcapacity and Challenges - The PV industry is facing severe overcapacity, with silicon production capacity expected to cover more than double the global demand from 2025 to 2027, while actual demand is below 600 GW [17]. - Despite the overcapacity, over 40 billion yuan is still being invested in new PV projects, worsening the supply-demand imbalance [18]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is anticipated to trigger a brutal industry-wide clearing, with many companies lacking competitive advantages likely to exit the market [19][24]. Financial Impact and Future Outlook - The removal of export tax rebates will significantly reduce profit margins for PV companies, with estimates indicating a profit reduction of 46-51 yuan per 210R module exported [24]. - Many companies are already reporting substantial losses, with projections indicating that the entire PV silicon industry could face losses amounting to hundreds of billions in 2025 [27][28]. - The industry is expected to undergo a significant consolidation, with over 30% of inefficient capacity being eliminated, allowing leading companies with strong technology and global presence to capture over 80% of the market share [29].