以下文章来源于钛媒体 ，作者黄田 钛媒体 . 新鲜犀利的财经见闻，放眼国际的前沿技术，还有罕见披露的内幕消息。钛媒体（www.tmtpost.com），引领未来商业与生活新知，一个投资者与创新者酷 爱聚集的地方。还可下载钛媒体App，24小时不间断更新和互动。 光伏的全局大洗牌开始。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 作者丨 黄田 编辑丨 曹晟源 来源丨 钛媒体 1月20日，天合光能发布2025年业绩预告：预计亏损65-75亿元。至此，光伏上市巨头2025年悉数交卷：9家龙头企业合计预亏415-470亿元，机构 预计，光伏上市企业全年亏损总额或超600亿元。 这是从上游硅料到下游组件，全产业链的集体亏损。背后是产能过剩、价格战与原材料暴涨的三重绞杀。最直观的是毛利率：2025上半年，多晶硅整体 毛利率为-6.30%，组件的毛利率只有0.67%。而在2022年，多晶硅整体毛利率一度高达73%，产业链各环节几乎"躺赚"。 银价格两年内飙升140%、硅料价格逆势反弹，在订单价格一路下探的背景下，企业利润被进一步压缩，雪上加霜几乎是注定的结果。 卓创资讯光伏分析师王帅认为，本轮行业出清的进程，可从三个关键 ...

第一，和前段时间外贸顺差超1万亿美元一样，这是人类历史上单一国家首次拿到这种恐怖的成绩。而且两者为因果关系，电是因、贸易顺差是果。 第二，哪怕是美国这么一个用电极为浪费的国家，我们依然相当于美国全年用电量的两倍多。 第三，这一数字超过欧盟、俄罗斯、日本、印度四个国家的总和。 第四，如果全部用来供电给空调，可以保持12亿台空调365天24小时不关机。 上周末，当全世界的目光都放在川皇整活、怒搞格林兰岛的时候，一则不起眼的消息如平地起惊雷，在整个键政圈和财经圈炸响： 我国2025年用电量，首超10万亿千瓦时。 也就是说，去年全年我们工业和民用加起来用掉了10万亿度电！如果对10万亿这个大到离谱的数字没有概念的话，我们还可以加上四个类比： 在地缘日益紧张、全世界乱成一锅粥的时候，一个人类历史上从未出现的电力帝国、或者叫能源帝国，正在以碾压姿态崛起。 更恐怖的是，这个电力帝国还在以一种惊人的速度膨胀：1月15号国家电网官宣，"十五五期间"，国家电网公司固定资产投资预计达到4万亿元，较"十四 五"期间投资增长40%。 资本市场闻风而动，电力板块已经逆着大盘调整、连续20天收红了。 A. 为什么"电"的消息这么牵动键政圈 ...

光伏ETF华夏（515370）及其联接基金（012885/012886）跟踪中证光伏产业指数，涉及光伏产业链 上、中、下游企业，包括硅片、多晶硅、电池片、电缆、光伏玻璃、电池组件、逆变器、光伏支架和光 伏电站等，能够更好的反映光伏产业整体表现。指数其光伏含量83.64%，指数维度全市场排名第一。 1月22日，光伏ETF华夏（515370）上涨0.2%，持仓股固德威涨超7%，钧达股份涨超5%，迈为股份涨 超4%。 1月21日，弘元绿能发布2025年年度业绩预告，预计全年实现归母净利润1.8亿元到2.5亿元，同比扭亏为 盈；预计全年扣非净利润为-2.5亿元至-3.1亿元。弘元绿能在公告中指出，公司2025年转让内蒙古鑫元 硅材料科技有限公司部分股权的交易，将为合并利润总额贡献约2.91亿元，这一非经常性收益成为公司 整体业绩转正的关键因素。不过，公司扣非净利润仍为负值，主营业务发展依旧承压。 浙商证券表示，2026年为行业"拐点之年"，核心逻辑包括：（1）价格触底回升，2025年第三季度多晶 硅价格环比上涨47%；（2）龙头企业如隆基绿能、晶澳科技发布股权激励计划，目标2026年扭亏为 盈；（3）基金配置比例降至 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" trend is reshaping supply and demand in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, accelerating the parity of solar storage in core markets and opening up new scenarios for future demand [1][3][5] - Global demand for solar energy is expected to grow significantly, with projected new installations of approximately 600GW in 2025 and 610GW in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of about 13.21% and 1.67% respectively [3][6] - The domestic and overseas production capacity is rapidly increasing, leading to a significant oversupply in the PV industry, which has resulted in continuous price declines and losses for many companies [5][6] Group 2 - The penetration rate of low-silver and silver-free technologies is expected to rise quickly, with leading companies likely to recover profitability ahead of the industry [1][22] - The article highlights that the profitability of auxiliary material companies is expected to improve as they diversify their business, with a focus on non-PV sectors [1][36] - The article identifies key beneficiaries in the market, including companies that lead in low-silver and silver-free technology iterations, such as Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar, which are expected to benefit from cost advantages [1][46] Group 3 - The article discusses the impact of rising silver prices on the cost structure of solar cell manufacturers, indicating that the cost of silver paste is becoming a critical factor for cost reduction [22][23] - The introduction of new technologies, such as high-copper and pure copper solutions, is accelerating in the industry, which is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [25][27] - The demand for space photovoltaics is anticipated to grow due to an increase in space launch missions, with a projected 263 launches in 2024, indicating a strong short-term demand for solar wings in low Earth orbit [29] Group 4 - The article notes that the profitability of battery materials is expected to improve as the pressure from the main chain eases, with low-silver and silver-free iterations likely to bring new benefits [36][39] - The photovoltaic glass sector is also expected to see a recovery in profitability due to industry self-discipline and a reduction in supply, with prices showing signs of recovery [41][46] - The article concludes with investment recommendations, suggesting that companies leading in low-silver and silver-free technology, as well as those involved in energy storage, are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market changes [46]

（来源：晶澳科技 JA Solar） STEK 三 P 7生间 201.93kWp 光伏车棚覆盖社区 将每一缕阳光转化为绿色电力 让尖端人才的日常，运行在清洁能源之上 > Q 215kwh/储能系统稳定运行 如同社区的"能量银行" 保障每一刻用电从容，支撑每一次创新进发 JA HENERGY Q 32个 直流快充终端全面布局 以极速补能体验 无缝对接人才高效奋进的生活节奏 10个 V2G智能桩开启双向赋能 技术隐于便捷体验之后 绿色融入日常生活的脉搏 我们构建的不只是设施 更是可感知、可参与、可共享的 未来社区能源样板 晶澳智慧能源 让电动汽车在停驻时 井思思ふらさより出ず出年ぶ O 品能参与什么能源问 | 实现真正的车与城协同共生 A 在这里 以科技之力，担时代之责 从张江出发 走向更广阔的未来场景 让每一座建筑都能发电 （来源：晶澳科技 JA Solar） 当尖端科技注入社区温度 晶澳智慧能源 以领先的光储充一体化系统 为张江人才公寓 注入可持续发展的智慧能量 以极速补能体验 无缝对接人才高效奋进的生活节奏 p Q 10个 /v2G智能桩开启双向赋能 让电动汽车在停驻时 也能参与社区能源调节 实现真正的车 ...

Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is facing a financial crisis, with nearly ten leading companies reporting significant losses for 2025, indicating a downturn across the entire supply chain [1] - The industry is experiencing overcapacity and intense competition, leading to a decline in profitability despite a surge in installation capacity driven by policy changes [1][8] - The cancellation of export tax rebates starting April 1, 2026, is expected to increase cost pressures on companies, intensifying competition and survival challenges [1][10] Company-Specific Insights - Tongwei Co., Ltd. anticipates a net loss of 90 to 100 billion yuan for 2025, marking a significant increase from a loss of 70.39 billion yuan in the previous year, potentially making it the largest loss among disclosed forecasts [3] - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 60 to 65 billion yuan for 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a loss of 85.92 billion yuan the previous year [6] - JA Solar Technology is projected to incur a net loss of 45 to 48 billion yuan, which may impact its employee incentive plans due to a significant gap between performance targets and actual results [4] - Aiko Solar anticipates a reduced loss of 12 to 19 billion yuan for 2025, down from 53.19 billion yuan, attributed to increased sales of high-value products [6] - Daqo New Energy expects a net loss of 10 to 13 billion yuan, while other companies like Junda and Shichuang Energy also project losses due to supply-demand imbalances [7] Market Dynamics - The solar power sector's new installations reached 274.89 GW from January to November 2025, nearing the total for 2024, with expectations to exceed 300 GW for the year [2] - The industry is witnessing a trend of mergers and acquisitions as companies face survival pressures due to limited funding sources [2][12] - The overall industry is characterized by a significant mismatch between supply and demand, with production capacity far exceeding actual market needs [8] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the cancellation of export tax rebates will lead to increased operational pressures in the short term but may encourage a shift towards value competition in the long term [10][11] - The industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring phase in 2026, with potential for a rebound if excess capacity is reduced and supply-demand balance is restored [12][13]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [2] - The industrial added value increased by 5.9%, while the service sector grew by 5.4%. Retail sales totaled 501202 billion yuan, up by 3.7% [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with a notable decline in real estate investment [3] Trade and Investment - Canada has reduced the import tax on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, allowing an annual quota of 49,000 vehicles, which is a significant policy shift aimed at filling market gaps [4][5] - The adjustment in tariffs is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese electric vehicles in the Canadian market, which has seen a decline in sales due to high costs and tariffs [5] Real Estate Market - In December 2025, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3%, with a notable increase in Shanghai, while overall new home sales area decreased by 8.7% year-on-year [6] - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with a significant reduction in new supply and ongoing inventory pressure [7] Mobile Phone Industry - Several smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi and OPPO, have lowered their annual shipment forecasts due to rising storage costs, with reductions exceeding 20% for some brands [8] - The impact of rising storage prices is uneven across manufacturers, with larger firms like Apple and Samsung less affected [9] Solar Industry - Nine leading solar companies, including LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., have announced expected losses for 2025, with Tongwei projecting a loss of 90 to 100 billion yuan [10] - The solar industry is facing significant challenges, including high inventory levels and price competition, leading to a prolonged period of losses [11] Wealth Disparity - The global wealth of billionaires reached a record 18.3 trillion USD in 2025, with a 16% increase in total wealth, highlighting a growing wealth gap amid stagnant poverty reduction efforts [12][13] - The AI sector's growth has significantly contributed to the increase in billionaire wealth, while ordinary residents face declining purchasing power due to inflation [13] Space Tourism - A startup has announced the opening of reservations for the world's first lunar hotel, aiming to begin operations by 2032, although the feasibility of such a project remains uncertain [14][15]

行业景气度是业绩胜负手 A股市场已有超过350家公司发布2025年度业绩预告，一幅清晰的产业景气度"分野图"就此展开。 业绩预告数据显示，在全球科技浪潮与商品周期驱动下，半导体、有色金属行业业绩耀眼，龙头公司普 遍实现高增长；而曾备受瞩目的光伏产业则因产能过剩、价格内卷深陷亏损，多家龙头预亏合计超300 亿元。更为引人深思的是，商业航天、AI应用等此前遭资金热捧的赛道，多数公司业绩预告亏损，凸 显概念炒作后基本面与估值的严重脱节。 综观已披露的业绩预告，A股市场正在经历一场从"预期叙事"到"报表验证"的切换，市场资金正基于业 绩真实成色进行博弈与调仓，业绩确定性已成为当前市场的核心锚点。 半导体业绩实现高增长，光伏龙头陷亏损泥潭 目前已披露的2025年业绩预告清晰地刻画了不同产业周期的分化态势。其中，受益于全球人工智能基础 设施建设浪潮及存储芯片的涨价周期，半导体产业链成为业绩增长的"优等生"。 佰维存储（688525.SH）预计2025年营收、净利均创历史新高。公司预计全年实现营业收入100亿元至 120亿元，同比增长49.36%至79.23%；实现归母净利润8.5亿元至10亿元，同比增长427.19%至 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple leading photovoltaic companies have recently announced expected losses for 2025, with a total estimated loss of 28.9 billion to 32.8 billion yuan among five companies [1]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a loss of 6.8 billion to 7.4 billion yuan when excluding non-recurring items [1]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) anticipates a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, also excluding non-recurring items [2]. - Aiko Solar Energy (爱旭股份) projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with a loss of 1.6 billion to 2.3 billion yuan when excluding non-recurring items [2]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) expects a net loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan for 2025 [4]. - JA Solar Technology (晶澳科技) forecasts a net loss of 4.5 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a mismatch in supply and demand, with low operating rates and ongoing price competition leading to a challenging business environment [1]. - The industry has experienced a significant increase in costs for silver paste and silicon materials, which has further pressured the profitability of companies [1]. - The overall installed capacity growth in the photovoltaic sector has slowed down in the second half of the year, contributing to a phase of oversupply [2]. - The structural overcapacity in the industry has not improved significantly, with core raw material prices continuing to rise while product prices remain low [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has indicated that 2026 will see intensified efforts to regulate capacity and manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects to achieve a dynamic balance in capacity [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its industrialization, and the potential for space photovoltaic technology is promising [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and government support [3][6] - The report highlights the strong performance of various segments within the power equipment industry, including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic technologies [3] Industry Trends - The electric equipment sector saw a 0.79% increase, outperforming the market, with lithium batteries rising by 1.5% and new energy vehicles by 1.29% [3] - The report notes that the global energy storage system shipments are expected to reach 498 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 99% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of government investment in energy storage and new energy sectors, with significant projects underway in regions like Jiangxi [3] Company Performance - Companies like Keda and Zhenyu Technology are expected to see substantial profit growth, with Keda projecting a net profit increase of 52.21%-67.43% for 2025 [3] - The report mentions that major companies are entering strategic partnerships and expanding their production capacities, such as Ganfeng Lithium and CATL [3][4] - The report also highlights the expected losses for companies like Junda and Longi Green Energy, indicating challenges in the current market environment [3][4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strong outlook for energy storage, lithium batteries, and solid-state technologies, recommending investments in leading companies such as CATL, Sunpower, and Sanyuan Electric [3][4] - It emphasizes the potential for growth in the humanoid robotics sector, with Tesla leading the market and significant opportunities for component manufacturers [6] - The report advises investors to focus on companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market channels, particularly in the AIDC sector [6]