笔者认为，目前市场处于博弈阶段，主要交易逻辑是政策预期增强，但光伏终端需求恢复偏弱，价格持 续上行动能仍待验证。中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会也指出，当前多晶硅价格虽已上涨，但基本面支 撑薄弱，供需尚未实质性改善。短期内，硅料价格将维持当前观望中小幅震荡上行的态势。 价格狂欢之余，刚刚披露完毕的光伏中报业绩预告显示，光伏主产业链制造商上半年集体亏损，其余环 节也是多数续亏、首亏，仅少数预增。可见，市场博弈的预期与现实业绩之间差异巨大。 "新三样"产业中，产能出清最迫在眉睫的是光伏。 7月18日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，工信部相关负责人表示，以市场化思维、法治化理念加 强行业治理，推动落后产能有序退出。 "新三样"产业中，产能出清最迫在眉睫的是光伏。 近期，随着高层政策频繁提到"反内卷"，市场博弈减产力度升级逻辑，光伏产业链现货价格跳涨，硅 料、硅片现货市场报价周内跳涨超10%。以硅片为例，全尺寸涨幅超过13%，各环节涨幅分化，N型 G10L单晶硅片涨逾22%，报1.5元/片，系年内单周最高涨幅。 资本市场方面，期货与光伏板块应声上涨，7月18日，多晶硅主力合约盘中创下历史最高，2508合约自6 月25日 ...

光伏ETF基金紧密跟踪中证光伏产业指数，中证光伏产业指数从主营业务涉及光伏产业链上、中、下游 的上市公司证券中，选取不超过50只最具代表性的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映光伏产业上市公 司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证光伏产业指数(931151)前十大权重股分别为阳光电源(300274)、隆 基绿能(601012)、TCL科技(000100)、特变电工(600089)、通威股份(600438)、TCL中环(002129)、正泰 电器(601877)、晶科能源(688223)、晶澳科技(002459)、德业股份(605117)，前十大权重股合计占比 55.39%。 中信建投研报称，去年下半年以来，中央层面多次强调整治"内卷式"竞争，治理企业低价无序竞争，推 动落后产能有序退出。而目前光伏、锂电均处于盈利底部，其中光伏亏损更为明显，"反内卷"有望成为 推动新能源行业中长期盈利修复的关键推动力。 截至2025年7月21日 09:37，中证光伏产业指数(931151)上涨0.91%，成分股特变电工(600089)上涨 4.72%，双良节能(600481)上涨2.30%，福莱特(60186 ...

截至2025年7月18日收盘，晶澳科技(002459)报收于11.45元，下跌1.63%，换手率2.42%，成交量80.08万 手，成交额9.27亿元。 当日关注点 董秘最新回复 交易信息汇总：7月18日主力资金净流出4837.87万元，而游资资金净流入1441.31万元，散户资金 净流入3396.56万元。 投资者： 董秘好，半年报业绩预告显示同比增亏，环比亏损有所收窄，这让人很担忧公司的发展前 景，而且前面证监会的问询函到目前都没有一个明确的回复，将导致H股上市成功的可能性降低，若上 市失败，则公司的资金压力增加，资产负债结构更糟，直接影响到公司的发展前景，影响投资者信心， 股价将进一步承压下跌。不知道公司有没有什么措施应对这些？建议释放一些有关订单、投产、阿曼项 目进展、鄂尔多斯项目进展等方面的利好消息。 董秘： 您好，您的建议已经收悉，我们会慎重考虑。对证监会的反馈意见已经进行了回复，目前发行 港股工作正常推进中。公司相关重大信息会以公告形式对外披露，可以登录交易所网站及巨潮资讯网查 阅。同时也会通过公众号"晶澳科技 JA Solar"对外发布一些经营动态，可关注获取。感谢关注。 交易信息汇总 7月1 ...

优必选 Walker S2 实现全天候作业 随着国内外企业布局加速&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产 落地时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国 产替代需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有 望深度受益。 2.新能源汽车 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 英国放宽 AR7 海上风电准入门槛，关注光储边际变 化 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 多款新车即将上市 我们认为，新能源汽车进入深度渗透的阶段，高性价比车型为 销售者带来更好的体验感，是扩大销售规模的核心推动力。新 车型的发布，短期有望推动关键环节排产上升以及国内销量增 长，中长期有助于新能源汽车行业稳健发展，看好核心供应商 相应机遇。 3.新能源 上游原材料价格上涨，价格有望向下传导 反内卷背景下硅料价格大幅上涨，本周硅片、电池片价格均有 所上调，我们认为，应当重视光伏产业链后续顺价逻辑：①上 游原材料价格上调，后续组件价格有望向上，按合理利润测 算，短期具备反弹空间 ...

2025.07. 16 本文字数：1942，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陆如意 截至7月15日，沪深主板上市的光伏企业2025年半年报的业绩预告披露已全部完成。 根据沪深交易所规定，主板上市公司预计半年度经营业绩出现净利润为负值、净利润实现扭亏为盈、 盈利且净利润与上年同期相比上升或者下降50%以上三种情形之一的，应当在7月15日前进行预告。 因而，目前已披露的光伏企业业绩预告数据并不完整，比如科创板上市的光伏组件巨头晶科能源 （688223.SH）和天合光能（688599.SH）均未披露上半年的业绩预报。但从目前已披露的一线代表 性光伏企业的业绩预告情况来看，格局已经比较明确：光伏企业仍陷在亏损泥潭，部分企业在二季度 出现减亏，也有企业走出二季度盈利的行情。 亏损仍在继续 今年上半年以来，工信部、行业协会等主管部门针对行业产能过剩与内卷竞争现状召开多次会议研究 讨论，提出依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，并引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有 序退出。同期，国内分布式市场迎来短期抢装潮，市场需求呈现阶段性旺盛。 但从目前数据来看，行业大规模亏损潮仍在继续。部分头部企业受限于产能规模较大，亏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a recovery due to the "anti-involution" trend, with significant net value rebounds for actively managed equity funds focused on this industry [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Notable fund managers like Lu Bin and Zheng Chengran have seen their funds' net values recover significantly, with Lu Bin's funds achieving over 20% gains in a three-week period [2][3]. - From June 23 to July 14, Lu Bin's HSBC Jintrust Era Pioneer A fund recorded a net value increase of 23.10%, leading the active equity fund category [2]. - Other funds managed by Zheng Chengran also reported net value increases of over 10%, with significant holdings in leading photovoltaic companies [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Adjustments - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing a phase of supply-demand imbalance and energy policy adjustments, indicating a deep adjustment phase [1][4]. - Leading companies in the photovoltaic sector are under pressure, with profitability across the industry being challenged and many companies operating at a loss [3][4]. - The industry is entering a consolidation phase, where less competitive capacities are expected to exit, leading to an optimized capacity structure and improved supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategies - The industry is exploring various strategies for breakthrough, including new technologies and overseas channels, although these require time for validation [4]. - The Central Financial Committee has emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated capacities, positioning the "anti-involution" of the photovoltaic industry as a market focus [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the recovery of industry chain prices is crucial for the "anti-involution" strategy, with a need for substantial improvement in market supply-demand relationships [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies transitioning to the energy storage sector, those with healthy balance sheets, and segments like silicon materials are expected to benefit from the ongoing supply-side reforms [6]. - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to see a solidification of its fundamentals, with a focus on companies that demonstrate long-term competitiveness and price recovery elasticity [6].

供需失衡下，光伏产业链价格的下降是企业在今年上半年出现业绩预亏的共因，但已有部分企业在二季 度出现减亏或盈利。 截至7月15日，沪深主板上市的光伏企业2025年半年报的业绩预告披露已全部完成。 根据沪深交易所规定，主板上市公司预计半年度经营业绩出现净利润为负值、净利润实现扭亏为盈、盈 利且净利润与上年同期相比上升或者下降50%以上三种情形之一的，应当在7月15日前进行预告。 因而，目前已披露的光伏企业业绩预告数据并不完整，比如科创板上市的光伏组件巨头晶科能源 （688223.SH）和天合光能（688599.SH）均未披露上半年的业绩预报。但从目前已披露的一线代表性 光伏企业的业绩预告情况来看，格局已经比较明确：光伏企业仍陷在亏损泥潭，部分企业在二季度出现 减亏，也有企业走出二季度盈利的行情。 亏损仍在继续 今年上半年以来，工信部、行业协会等主管部门针对行业产能过剩与内卷竞争现状召开多次会议研究讨 论，提出依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，并引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退 出。同期，国内分布式市场迎来短期抢装潮，市场需求呈现阶段性旺盛。 但从目前数据来看，行业大规模亏损潮仍在继续。部分头部企业受 ...

Group 1 - The core achievement in solar technology is the development of perovskite micro-modules by NREL and CubicPV, which have achieved a world record efficiency of 24.0% for photovoltaic conversion [1] - The performance of the photovoltaic industry is reflected in the 中证光伏产业指数 (CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index), which has seen a decline of 0.58% as of July 15, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top-performing stocks include 横店东磁 (9.98% increase), 科华数据 (6.85% increase), and 罗博特科 (1.75% increase), while the worst performers include 协鑫集成 (4.83% decrease) and 双良节能 (3.98% decrease) [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index account for 55.39% of the index, with major companies including 阳光电源, 隆基绿能, and TCL科技 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of photovoltaic material companies in the first half of 2025 is deteriorating, with significant losses reported across the sector, indicating that the industry is struggling to recover on its own [1][6][11]. Financial Performance Summary - A total of 24 photovoltaic companies have released their mid-year performance forecasts, with 13 out of 14 major material companies reporting losses [6][11]. - Notable losses include: - Tongwei Co., Ltd.: Expected loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion CNY [1] - TCL Zhonghuan: Expected loss of 4 billion to 4.5 billion CNY [1] - JA Solar: Loss doubled compared to the previous year, with no improvement from the first quarter [9] - Longi Green Energy: Significant reduction in losses year-on-year, but no improvement from the first quarter [9] - Aiko Solar: Achieved profitability in the second quarter, attributed to innovative product offerings and market segmentation [9][10]. Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe challenges, with increasing competition and financial pressures leading to widespread losses [11][12]. - The industry is characterized by high leverage, particularly among leading companies, making recovery difficult [11]. - The government is urged to implement measures to reduce excess capacity and enforce strict standards to prevent further deterioration of the industry [12][13]. Recommendations for Recovery - Suggestions include reducing polysilicon production capacity by half and halting expansions across all photovoltaic capacities [12][13]. - Establishing a unified standard system for product quality, energy consumption, and carbon emissions is essential to avoid quality issues in the future [13].

Macro News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes strict punishment for financial crimes such as market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering to promote healthy financial market development [1][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with 8 trillion yuan for 3-month operations and 6 trillion yuan for 6-month operations [3][6] - In the first half of 2025, the total social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 12.92 trillion yuan, and M2 growth of 8.3% year-on-year [4][6] Company News - China Eastern Airlines expects a net loss of 12 billion to 16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [12] - Greenland Holdings anticipates a net loss of 30 billion to 35 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [13] - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 24 billion to 28 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, although it represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [13] - Perfect World anticipates a net profit of 4.8 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [17] - Wen Tai Technology expects a net profit increase of 178% to 317% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [18] - China Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 136 million to 176 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a return to profitability [21] Investment Opportunities - The Robotaxi industry is expected to experience rapid growth due to technological advancements and supportive policies, with 2025 projected as a year of mass production [29] - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to see significant growth, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 and larger-scale shipments by 2030, driven by increasing demand for high-performance batteries [30] - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with a record order of 124 million yuan for humanoid robot manufacturing services, indicating strong market potential [31] - The successful production of the first barrel of uranium from China's largest natural uranium production project is expected to enhance the country's energy resource security and influence in uranium resource development [32]