Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in polysilicon futures prices entering 2026, with a year-to-date drop of 13.92% as of January 16, 2026, erasing gains since August 2025 and repeatedly falling below the critical threshold of 50,000 yuan/ton [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The trading volume and open interest for polysilicon have sharply decreased, with the weighted index's open interest falling below 90,000 contracts, only about 20% of last year's peak of 444,400 contracts [2][12]. - The recent price drop is attributed to weak supply and demand dynamics, alongside panic selling triggered by rumors of antitrust actions affecting major polysilicon producers [2][4][6]. Policy Impact - A new policy from China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration, effective April 1, 2026, will eliminate VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products, which may lead to short-term export demand but is expected to benefit the photovoltaic industry in the long run [4][10]. - In anticipation of this policy, prices for various photovoltaic products have increased, but polysilicon futures have not followed suit, indicating market disruptions [4][8]. Supply and Demand Analysis - January 2026 polysilicon production is estimated at around 107,000 tons, while demand is projected to be less than 80,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply situation [6][10]. - The production of downstream components, such as battery cells and modules, has also decreased, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [6][10]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market rumors regarding antitrust measures have amplified market volatility, leading to a rapid exit of long positions and contributing to the price decline [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that market participants should verify the authenticity of such rumors and consider the fundamental supply-demand conditions before making investment decisions [6][9]. Industry Challenges - The article highlights that regardless of market rumors, polysilicon prices were likely to decline due to the unsustainable price increases seen in 2025, which have not been matched by price increases in other segments of the photovoltaic supply chain [8][9]. - Companies in the downstream photovoltaic sector, such as TCL Zhonghuan, have reported significant losses due to the rising costs of polysilicon, which have not been adequately passed down the supply chain [9][10]. Regulatory Environment - The recent tightening of trading regulations by the exchange aims to curb speculative trading, which has contributed to the decline in trading volume and open interest in polysilicon futures [12][13]. - There are concerns that polysilicon futures could become marginalized, similar to the fate of coal futures, but analysts believe that the strategic importance of the photovoltaic industry will prevent this outcome [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon prices and trading volumes is attributed to weak supply-demand dynamics and market rumors regarding antitrust issues, leading to panic selling among investors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 16, polysilicon futures have seen a year-to-date decline of 13.92%, erasing gains since August and frequently falling below the critical threshold of 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume and open interest for polysilicon have significantly decreased, with open interest dropping to around 84,296 contracts, only 20% of last year's peak [9]. - The recent market sentiment has been exacerbated by rumors of antitrust actions against leading polysilicon companies, causing further panic among investors [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The supply of polysilicon remains high, with January production estimated at around 107,000 tons, while demand is projected to be less than 80,000 tons, indicating a continued oversupply [4]. - Downstream production rates for solar cells and modules have also decreased, reflecting weak end-user demand [4]. - The overall market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, which is pressuring prices and leading to inventory accumulation [4]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The Chinese government announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which may create short-term export demand but is expected to benefit the industry in the long run [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to alleviate price competition within the photovoltaic industry, but the recent price surge in polysilicon has not been matched by increases in other segments, leading to operational pressures on downstream companies [6][7]. Group 4: Trading Regulations - The recent decline in trading volumes is partly due to the exchange implementing stricter risk control measures to curb speculative trading, which has raised transaction costs and reduced arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for polysilicon futures to become a "zombie product" similar to coal futures if trading continues to cool [9]. - Despite current challenges, the futures market is expected to remain relevant due to the strategic importance of the photovoltaic industry in China [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power equipment industry, particularly in the renewable energy sector, with significant investments and technological advancements expected to drive growth [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the State Grid's investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2]. - The report emphasizes the stability in polysilicon prices and the continuous rise in battery component prices, with N-type battery prices increasing to 0.40 yuan per watt [15][16]. - The report identifies three key areas of focus: supply-side reform leading to price increases in the industry chain, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts [16]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - Polysilicon prices remain stable, while battery component prices are on the rise, with N-type battery prices reaching an average of 0.40 yuan per watt [15]. - The report notes that leading component companies are responding to industry self-discipline by raising component prices, with distributed sales prices reaching 0.72 yuan per watt [15][16]. - Key companies to watch include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar [16]. 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction results exceeded expectations, with a total scale of approximately 8.4GW, validating the upward trend in European offshore wind [17]. - The State Grid's investment is expected to enhance transmission capacity significantly, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy delivery [18]. - Companies to focus on include Goldwind, Yunda Wind Power, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy [18]. 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - By 2025, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China are projected to reach 7,797 units, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [20]. - The report anticipates that new energy storage installations will reach 58.6GW/175.3GWh by 2025, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector [21]. - Key players in the hydrogen sector include Shuangliang Energy, Huadian Heavy Industries, and Shenghui Technology [20]. 2. New Energy Vehicles - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with several automakers making progress towards mass production by 2026 [29]. - Companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Chery are expected to achieve significant milestones in solid-state battery technology [29]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Xiamen Tungsten, Hailiang Co., and Nanjing Advanced Lithium Battery [29]. 3. Industry Trends - The report notes a 0.4% increase in the new energy equipment sector from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 5.3% since the beginning of the year [12]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 3.52% increase, while the wind power equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.28% during the same period [13].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) module industry is experiencing an unexpected price surge in early 2026, driven by the impending cancellation of export tax rebates and rising costs of key materials like silver and aluminum, leading to significant profit compression and potential industry-wide upheaval [1][7][19]. Price Surge and Market Dynamics - Several distributed PV investment companies have reported sudden price increases on previously agreed contracts, with one leading manufacturer raising prices from 0.73 yuan/W to 0.8 yuan/W [2]. - On January 13, Trina Solar announced a collective price increase for various distributed PV module models, with official guidance prices ranging from 0.85 to 0.89+ yuan/W [2][3]. - A total of 12 module manufacturers raised their prices this week, with increases ranging from 0.04 to 0.15 yuan/W [4]. Cost Factors - The cancellation of export tax rebates, effective April 1, 2026, is a significant catalyst for the price increases, as companies rush to fulfill orders before the policy takes effect [7][8]. - The price of silver has surged over 150% in 2025, increasing its cost share in PV modules from approximately 17% to around 30%, making it the largest cost component [10][13]. - The rising prices of aluminum and other materials have further exacerbated cost pressures, with aluminum's cost share increasing from 8-12% to 12-15% [14][16]. Industry Overcapacity and Challenges - The PV industry is facing severe overcapacity, with silicon production capacity expected to cover more than double the global demand from 2025 to 2027, while actual demand is below 600 GW [17]. - Despite the overcapacity, over 40 billion yuan is still being invested in new PV projects, worsening the supply-demand imbalance [18]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is anticipated to trigger a brutal industry-wide clearing, with many companies lacking competitive advantages likely to exit the market [19][24]. Financial Impact and Future Outlook - The removal of export tax rebates will significantly reduce profit margins for PV companies, with estimates indicating a profit reduction of 46-51 yuan per 210R module exported [24]. - Many companies are already reporting substantial losses, with projections indicating that the entire PV silicon industry could face losses amounting to hundreds of billions in 2025 [27][28]. - The industry is expected to undergo a significant consolidation, with over 30% of inefficient capacity being eliminated, allowing leading companies with strong technology and global presence to capture over 80% of the market share [29].

作者 | 哥吉拉 01 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 2026开年， 光伏组件行业迎来了一波始料未及的涨价潮。 毁约式涨价潮突袭 近日，光伏市场上有多家组价企业接连披露组件价格上调公告，市场上已经开始出现拖延发货、坐地起价甚至 "毁 约"等乱相，让下游急需发货的企业措手不及。 近日，多家分布式光伏投资企业被告知，其已经付款的组件订单在提货前夕被 "涨价"，某头部组件企业要求合同签 订时谈定的0.73元/瓦的价格，调涨到0.8元/瓦。 对于组件涨价的原因，一方面是出口退税政策取消的窗口临近，厂商为 "抢出口"加速组件发货刺激价格上涨，另一 方面是作为组件重要成本材料的银、铝金属价格大涨，使得组件成本大幅抬升。 1月13日，天合光能通过官微公告分布式市场指导价，多个产品型号都出现集体涨价，其中分布式光伏组件官方指导 价为0.85-0.89+元/W。 然而更严峻的是， 在新形势下，光伏行业的利润被大幅压缩逐渐成为行业共识，接下来，光伏行业有可能成为 2026年迎来新一轮暴力出清的行业。 据媒体统计，本周共有 12家组件厂商上调报价，甚至部分头部厂商一周内已经二次上调报价，合计涨幅达 ...

晶澳科技公告称，预计2025年度净利润为负值，归属于上市公司股东的净利润在-45.00亿元至-48.00亿 元之间，扣除非经常性损益的净利润为-48.00亿元至-51.00亿元。业绩变动主因光伏主产业链产能释放 致供需失衡、竞争加剧，产品价格下降，叠加国际贸易保护政策影响，组件销售均价和盈利能力下降。 不过公司电池组件出货量仍处行业领先，未来将加强运营、控成本提升竞争力。 ...

特此公告。 东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司 东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司关于晶澳太阳能科技股份有限 公司 2025 年度业绩预亏的关注公告 1 东方金诚公告【2026】0009 号 东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司（以下简称"东方金诚"）受托对晶澳太阳能科技股份有限公 司（以下简称"晶澳科技"或"公司"）及其发行的"晶澳太阳能科技股份有限公司向不特定对象 发行可转换公司债券"（以下简称"晶澳转债"）进行了信用评级。2025 年 6 月 20 日，东方金诚 对晶澳科技主体及"晶澳转债"进行了定期跟踪评级，维持晶澳科技主体信用等级为 AA+，评级展 望稳定，维持"晶澳转债"信用等级为 AA+，评级结果自评级报告日起至到期兑付日有效。 东方金诚关注到，晶澳科技于 2026 年 1 月 13 日发布《晶澳科技 2025 年度业绩预告》，称预 计公司 2025 年度净利润为负值，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-45.00 亿元至-48.00 亿元之 间，预计扣除非经常性损益的净利润为-48.00 亿元至-51.00 亿元之间。 上述事项发生后，东方金诚通过向企业电话沟通、查询公开资料等方式了解到，公司业绩变动 原因主要为： ...

格隆汇1月16日丨晶澳科技(002459.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司目前的主流产品以Topcon为主，主要应用 于地面大型电站及分布式场景。公司研发中心有针对钙钛矿电池技术做研发和技术储备，暂无柔性砷化 镓相关产品。 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：看到之前的一则消息说贵司自主研发的柔性砷化镓光 伏电池产品已成功应用于我国空间站天和核心舱，是否属实？ 晶澳科技（002459.SZ）1月16日在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前的主流产品以Topcon为主，主要应用 于地面大型电站及分布式场景。公司研发中心有针对钙钛矿电池技术做研发和技术储备，暂无柔性砷化 镓相关产品。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the solar component companies entering the energy storage sector, suggesting a new growth space for these companies [4]. Core Insights - Leading solar component companies are accelerating their entry into the energy storage market, with notable players like Canadian Solar, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, and LONGi Green Energy making significant moves [3][9]. - The entry of these companies into the energy storage sector is supported by two main advantages: strong customer channels and the ability to leverage existing global networks [3][13]. - The energy storage market is characterized by a strong binding trend between solar and storage projects, particularly in regions with rapidly growing electricity demand [21]. Summary by Sections 1. Accelerated Layout of Leading Component Companies in Energy Storage - Major solar component companies are focusing on large-scale energy storage, with significant market potential and a trend towards joint development of solar-storage projects [9][11]. 2. Competitive Advantages: Reusing Global Networks in Customer and Channel - Solar and energy storage customers overlap significantly, providing solar companies with inherent customer acquisition advantages [13][17]. - Leading solar companies have established global sales and service systems, enhancing their ability to develop energy storage businesses [17][20]. 3. Competitive Advantages: Strong Binding of Scenarios and Applications - The trend of integrating solar and energy storage projects is becoming mainstream, especially in countries with less developed electricity markets [21]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the entry of solar component companies into the energy storage sector is expected to open new growth opportunities, with a focus on three key indicators for assessing growth potential: commitment to energy storage, overseas market expansion in the next 1-2 years, and profitability contributions [4][24]. - Specific companies to watch include Canadian Solar, which has already seen significant profit contributions from its energy storage business, and Trina Solar, which is rapidly expanding its overseas energy storage operations [24].