Summary of Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ganfeng Lithium - **Ticker**: 1772.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$67,370 million (US$8,661 million) [4] Financial Performance - **4Q24 Net Loss**: Rmb1.4 billion, impacted by fair value loss from PLS stake (estimated at ~Rmb1.1 billion) and share of loss from associates (~Rmb300 million) [1] - **Core Business Performance**: Barely break-even in 4Q24, showing little change quarter-over-quarter [1] - **Balance Sheet Deterioration**: Interest-bearing debt increased by 30% YoY to Rmb32 billion (up from Rmb25 billion in 2024 and Rmb13 billion in 2023) [1] - **Free Cash Flow**: Free cash outflow of Rmb1,118 million in 4Q24, compared to Rmb2.3 billion in 3Q24 [3] - **Net Gearing Ratio**: Increased to 53% in 4Q24 from 44% in 3Q24 and 30% in 4Q23 [3] Segment Performance - **Lithium Compound vs. Battery Segment**: Lithium segment gross profit margin (GpM) was ~10% in FY24, down 3 percentage points YoY, while battery segment GpM averaged 12% in FY24, down from 18% in FY23 [2] Market Conditions - **Lithium Prices**: Significant decline in lithium benchmark prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices down 65% YoY and lithium hydroxide prices down 70% YoY [8] - **Sales Performance**: Gross revenue decreased by 43% YoY to Rmb18.906 billion in 2024 [8] Valuation and Recommendations - **Target Price**: HK$26.00, representing a 19.8% expected return from the current price of HK$21.70 [4] - **Expected Total Return**: 20.0%, including a 0.1% expected dividend yield [4] Risks - **Key Risks**: 1. Increased supply of lithium compounds leading to lower prices for lithium carbonate and hydroxide [11] 2. Weaker-than-expected demand for electric vehicles (EVs) [11] 3. Spodumene concentrate prices declining less than anticipated [11] Additional Insights - **Investment Factors**: The increase in debt is attributed to overseas expansion and share repurchase activities, indicating potential financial cost pressures in the near future [1] - **Analyst Valuation**: Ganfeng-H shares are valued at a 30% discount to Ganfeng-A shares, consistent with historical averages since 2019 [10]

Summary of Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. - **Industry**: Lithium Chemicals - **Market Cap**: Rmb62,756 million - **Current Stock Price**: HK$21.70 (as of March 28, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$27.00, indicating a 24% upside potential Key Financial Results - **2024 Net Loss**: Rmb2.1 billion, at the low end of the preliminary loss range of Rmb1.4-2.1 billion [10] - **4Q24 Net Loss**: Rmb1.6 billion, with a recurring loss of Rmb530 million [10] - **Revenue for 2024**: Rmb18,201 million, with an estimated increase to Rmb20,927 million in 2025 [7] - **Lithium Chemicals Shipment Volume**: Grew 27% YoY to 130kt LCE in 2024 [10] - **Lithium Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Decreased by 2.1 percentage points YoY to 10.5% due to lower prices [4] Production and Inventory - **Lithium Chemicals Production**: Increased by 25% YoY [4] - **EV/ESS Battery Production**: Remained flat, with shipments up 8% YoY; inventory increased by 3.2 GWh to 6.5 GWh, representing ~80% of sales [4] - **Battery Segment GPM**: Declined by 6.3 percentage points YoY to 11.7% [4] Upstream Resource Updates - **CO Project**: Produced 25.4kt LCE in 2024, with plans to produce 30-35kt LCE in 2025 [5] - **Mariana Project**: Commenced production in February 2025, expected to supply LiCl from 2H25 [5] - **Goulamina Project**: Phase 1 (506kt SC) has commenced and is ramping up [5] - **Gabus Project**: Expected to ramp up gradually in 2025 [5] - **Potassic Salt Ore Project in Congo**: Under construction, with production expected to start by 2027 [5] Market Conditions and Challenges - **Lithium Prices**: Remain weak, with 1Q25 average at Rmb76k/t, down 0.2% QoQ and 24.5% YoY [3] - **Investment in Pilbara**: Fair value change loss impacted 4Q24 results, despite risk mitigation strategies [3] - **Headwinds**: Expected to continue into 1Q25 due to declining share prices of Pilbara and ongoing low lithium prices [3] Analyst Ratings and Outlook - **Stock Rating**: Overweight [7] - **Industry View**: Attractive [7] - **EPS Estimates**: Expected to recover from a loss of Rmb0.11 in 2024 to Rmb0.82 in 2025 [7] - **Valuation Methodology**: Base case 2025 P/E of 30.6x, in line with average of China lithium peers [11] Risks - **Upside Risks**: Shortages of lithium raw materials could constrain production, and EV market growth may exceed expectations [13] - **Downside Risks**: EV market demand could fall below expectations, and faster-than-expected global lithium supply growth may impact profitability [13] Conclusion Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. is navigating a challenging market environment characterized by low lithium prices and production headwinds. However, the company is actively ramping up upstream resources, which may provide cost support in the future. The stock is rated as overweight, reflecting a positive outlook despite current challenges.

| | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | 本年比上年增减 | 2022年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(元) | 18,906,402,940.11 | 32.971.680.169.96 | -42.66% | 41,822,508.877.50 | | 归属于上市公司股东 | -2.074.013.392.07 | 4.946,809.503.79 | -141.93% | 20.503.567.858.85 | | 的净利润(元) | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东 的扣除非经常性损益 | -887.309.059.28 | 2.675.926.152.58 | -133.16% | 19.952.341.491.27 | | 的净利润(元) | | | | | | 经营活动产生的现金 | 5.161.271.999.89 | 146.480.693.21 | 3.423.52% | 12.490.633.286.43 | | 流量净额(元) | | | | | | 基本每股收益(元/ | -1.03 | 2.46 | -141.87% | ...

Group 1: Lithium Prices and Market Outlook - As of April 1, the battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,200 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 760 CNY/ton [1] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices range from 73,400 CNY/ton to 74,800 CNY/ton, averaging 74,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1,000 CNY/ton [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices range from 71,650 CNY/ton to 72,650 CNY/ton, averaging 72,150 CNY/ton, also showing a week-on-week increase of 1,000 CNY/ton [1] - Industry experts suggest that the lithium carbonate price is unlikely to decline further due to multiple Australian mines ceasing operations, signaling industry consolidation in the second half of 2024 [1] Group 2: Ganfeng Lithium's Strategic Developments - Ganfeng Lithium is optimistic about achieving profitability by 2025 through cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements across its lithium chemical, battery, and energy storage segments [2] - The company is accelerating the extraction of low-cost lithium mines, including the Mariana lithium salt lake project and the Goulamina spodumene project, which is expected to have a competitive production cost compared to most Australian mines [2] - Ganfeng Lithium anticipates a lithium resource self-sufficiency rate of 50%-60% this year, with further increases expected as production ramps up at the Goulamina project [2] Group 3: Global Lithium Demand Projections - Global lithium resource demand is projected to reach 1.19 million tons of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) in 2024, with electric vehicles accounting for 61% and energy storage for 17% of the demand [3] - By 2025, global lithium resource demand is expected to increase to 1.45 million tons of LCE, with the share of electric vehicles rising to 62% and energy storage to 19% [3] Group 4: Technological Innovations and Product Development - Ganfeng Lithium employs a vertically integrated business model that spans upstream lithium resource development, midstream lithium salt processing, and downstream battery manufacturing and recycling [4] - The company focuses on technological innovation, having developed capabilities in solid-state battery components, including sulfide electrolytes and lithium metal anodes, with plans to expand production capacity in 2024 [4] - Ganfeng Lithium has also developed high-energy density and high-power battery products for various applications, with energy densities ranging from 320 Wh/kg to 500 Wh/kg, and plans to deliver the first batch of samples by 2025 [4] Group 5: Battery Recycling Capabilities - Ganfeng Lithium has established a comprehensive recycling capacity of 20,000 tons for retired lithium-ion batteries and metal waste, achieving a lithium recovery rate of over 90% and a nickel-cobalt recovery rate of 95% [5] - The company's recycling capabilities rank among the top in the industry, highlighting its commitment to sustainability and resource efficiency [5]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 002460 | 說明 | A股 (深圳證券交易所) | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,613,593,699 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,613,593,699 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,613,593,699 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,613,593,699 | | 2. 股份分 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to falling lithium prices and losses from fair value changes of its Pilbara holdings. The revenue for 2024 was 18.906 billion yuan, down 42.66% year-on-year, and the net profit was a loss of 2.074 billion yuan, down 141.93% year-on-year. Despite the downturn in the lithium industry, the company's lithium product production increased by 24.94% year-on-year to 130,300 tons LCE [1][6][8]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of 23.846 billion yuan in 2025, 30.290 billion yuan in 2026, and 37.871 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26.1%, 27.0%, and 25.0% respectively [17][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 18.906 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.66% year-on-year. The net profit was a loss of 2.074 billion yuan, down 141.93% year-on-year. The operating cash flow was 5.161 billion yuan, an increase of 3423.52% year-on-year [1][6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 303 million yuan [9]. Production and Sales Data - The company produced 130,300 tons of lithium products in 2024, an increase of 24.94% year-on-year, with sales of 129,700 tons, up 27.41% year-on-year. The inventory level was approximately 7,765 tons, up 7.25% year-on-year [1][8][12]. Lithium Resource Development - The company has made significant progress in lithium resource projects, including the Mt Marion project in Australia and the Cauchari salt lake project in Argentina, which is expected to reach a production of 25,400 tons LCE in 2024 [2][12][13]. - The total lithium salt production capacity has exceeded 200,000 tons LCE, with ongoing expansions in various projects [13][14]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 23.846 billion yuan in 2025, 30.290 billion yuan in 2026, and 37.871 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.957 billion yuan, 3.206 billion yuan, and 4.224 billion yuan respectively [17][18].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 赣锋锂业（002460） 2024 年年报点评：资源布局步入收获期，后 续盈利有望好转 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 32972 | 18906 | 20802 | 24842 | 29087 | | 同比（%） | (21.16) | (42.66) | 10.03 | 19.42 | 17.09 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4947 | (2074) | 1184 | 1585 | 2456 | | 同比（%） | (75.87) | (141.93) | 157.09 | 33.87 | 54.93 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.45 | (1.03) | 0.59 | 0.79 | 1.22 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.83 | (32.99) | 57.78 | 43.16 | 27.86 | [Table_Ta ...

在最近的一次采访中，李良彬称目前行业正处于下行周期，要顺周期而为，已经暂停了上游买矿扩张的 动作，精力将聚焦在储能等下游业务上。 弯道超车，并购成就"锂王" 长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 潘瑞冬 锂业周期低谷中，行业龙头也不好过。 3月28日晚间，赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）发布2024年年报，报告期，公司营业收入同比下降42.66%，归母 净利润为-20.74亿元，遭遇上市以来首次亏损。期末，公司的负债率达52.8%，较2023年末剧增近10个 百分点。 赣锋锂业的创始人李良彬，曾靠着多次对于行业准确的判断，通过在全球买矿打通上游，将赣锋锂业送 上"锂矿双雄"这一高位。2021年，李良彬的财富达到545亿元高点，成为江西首富。近几年，随着锂业 下行，赣锋锂业股价下跌，他的财富也随之缩水。根据胡润百富榜，2024年，他的财富为130亿元，3年 时间跌了415亿元。 1988年，21岁的李良彬从宜春学院化学系毕业，分配到江西锂盐厂，从事锂盐产品的研制和开发。九年 间，他从一名普通技术员成长为科研所所长、溴化锂分厂厂长。 技术出身的李良彬，对技术的发展也保持着敏感。当看到智利锂矿工业龙头SQM实现了更低成本的卤 ...

赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）2024 年年报点评 公允价值变动损失拖累业绩，期待自有资源放量 2025 年 03 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报。1）业绩：2024 年公司实现营收 189.1 亿 元，同比-42.7%，归母净利-20.7 亿元，同比由盈转亏，扣非归母净利-8.9 亿元， 同比由盈转亏。单季度看，24Q4 实现营收 49.8 亿元，同比-31.7%，环比+14.9%， 归母净利-14.3 亿元，同比亏损增加 3.7 亿元，环比由盈转亏，扣非归母净利-5.3 亿元，同比亏损减少 11.5 亿元，环比亏损增加 3.3 亿元；2）分红：2024 年拟 每 10 股派发现金股利 1.5 元（含税），合计现金分红 3.0 亿元。 ➢ 产销稳步增长，价格下行拖累业绩。锂盐板块：1）量：24 年公司锂盐产量 13.0 万吨，同比+24.9%，销量 13.0 万吨，同比+27.4%；2）价：24 年国内电 池级碳酸锂均价 9.0 万元，同比-64.6%，其中 24Q4 电池级碳酸锂均价 7.6 万 元，环比-4.8%，锂价下行拖累锂盐板块业绩；3）利：24 年锂盐毛利率 10.5%， 同 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.62 and RMB 37.01, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at RMB 18.906 billion (down 42.66% year-on-year) and a net loss of RMB 2.074 billion (down 141.93% year-on-year). The performance aligns with the company's profit warning [1][2]. - Despite the downturn, the company is expanding its upstream resources and midstream refining capacity, positioning itself for potential recovery when industry conditions improve [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 49.81 billion (down 31.67% year-on-year, up 14.87% quarter-on-quarter) and a net loss of RMB 14.34 billion (down 34.86% year-on-year, down 1294.81% quarter-on-quarter) [1]. - The lithium price has significantly decreased, with a reported 65% year-on-year drop in lithium carbonate prices, impacting profitability despite increased sales volume [2]. Production Expansion - The company is ramping up production at various projects, including the Cauchari-Olaroz project, which reached approximately 85% of its nominal design capacity in Q4 2024, and the Mariana lithium salt lake project, which commenced production in February 2025 [3]. - The Goulamina spodumene project is also progressing, with an initial capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate expected to be gradually released in 2025 [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to the unexpected decline in lithium prices, the earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected EPS of RMB 0.32, RMB 0.90, and RMB 1.71 for the respective years [4][6]. - The company is assigned a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.77 for 2025, with a book value per share (BPS) of RMB 20.88, reflecting a premium of 78% over the average A/H share price in the last three months [4].