24 November 2025 | 6:54AM HKT Equity Research CHINA METALS & MINING Chinese lithium sector - downside risks after the bull run. Downgrade Ganfeng-H to Sell We update our China benchmark lithium chemical price forecasts and global lithium market S/D balance, to reflect better-than-expected demand mostly from the ESS segment, jointly with the GS global commodity team (see report here). Fundamentals of the lithium market have significantly improved in recent months - we see tight S/D balance in 2H25-1H26, as a ...

高盛将赣锋锂业H股的评级从"中性"下调至"卖出"，理由是下游市场短期反馈欠佳以及补库存增速放 缓，导致锂现货价格面临下行风险。 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower last week, with the Dow Jones down 1.91%, the Nasdaq down 2.74%, and the S&P 500 down 1.95% [1] - European indices also performed poorly, with the FTSE 100 down 1.64%, the CAC 40 down 2.29%, and the DAX down 3.29% [1] Economic Data Releases - A series of key economic data, delayed due to government shutdown, will be released this week, potentially increasing market volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting [2] - Important data includes September retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, and September durable goods orders on Wednesday [2] - The release of the revised Q3 GDP growth rate and October personal income and spending data has been rescheduled [2] CPI and Employment Reports - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will not release the complete October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with the November report scheduled for December 18 [3] - The delay in the October employment report may increase the importance of weekly initial jobless claims data [2] MSCI Index Adjustments - The MSCI China Index will undergo adjustments effective after the market close on November 24, including the addition of 26 stocks and the removal of 16 stocks [4] - New additions include companies like Qianli Technology and Huahong Semiconductor, while removals include Beikong Water Group and China Everbright Bank [4] U.S.-Ukraine Talks - U.S. and Ukrainian representatives reported progress in talks regarding a new 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5] - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio indicated that both sides are working to narrow differences and move towards a mutually acceptable solution [6]

高盛：将赣锋锂业H股评级从中性下调至卖出，目标价32港元。 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a significant downturn, with the ChiNext Index dropping 6.15% last week and falling below the 3000-point mark on November 21, closing at 2920.08 points [1] - The Hang Seng Index also declined over 5% for the week, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 7% [1] - Major Asian markets, including the Korean Composite Index and Nikkei 225, also saw declines of nearly 4% and over 3.48%, respectively [1] Sector Analysis - The technology and battery sectors, which had previously shown strong performance, underwent substantial corrections, with the electronics sector experiencing a weekly decline of 5.89% [2] - The lithium battery supply chain faced a sharp drop, with the lithium mining index falling by 9.67% on a single day, affecting multiple stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy and Ganfeng Lithium, which hit their daily limit down [2] - The computing power industry also saw a collective pullback, with significant declines in stocks like Xin Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji Xu Chuang [2] Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term pressures, several brokerages indicated that the long-term slow bull trend in the A-share market remains intact [3] - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment is a normal part of the bull market process, with expectations of a gradual recovery after the current phase of volatility [3][4] - The AI industry chain is expected to continue its long-term growth trend, although there may be short-term fluctuations [3] Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The ChiNext Index's price-to-earnings ratio has decreased to 37.72, indicating a moderate valuation level compared to historical highs, suggesting no significant overvaluation risk [7] - Despite short-term capital outflows, the continued net subscriptions of ChiNext ETFs reflect long-term investor confidence [7] - The current market adjustment is viewed as profit-taking and a reaction to market sentiment, with a focus on quality growth stocks supported by strong earnings [7]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation's subsidiary, Aerospace Rainbow, and other companies aims to establish a new company focused on the drone industry in Chongqing, leveraging advanced drone technology and capital from various stakeholders [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Aerospace Rainbow is a leading player in the domestic drone sector, with its "Rainbow" drones possessing complete independent intellectual property rights and core technologies that have reached an international leading level [2]. - The company has developed a dual business model focusing on new materials and drone research and manufacturing, expanding its product line to include medium and large reconnaissance and strike drones [2]. Group 2: Joint Venture Details - The new joint venture, Chongqing Saihong Technology Co., Ltd., will have a registered capital of 901.41 million yuan, focusing on the research and manufacturing of low-altitude logistics and manned aircraft [1]. - Aerospace Rainbow will contribute tilt-rotor technology to the joint venture, acquiring approximately 43.64% of the equity [1][3]. Group 3: Stakeholder Composition - The major shareholders of Chongqing Saihong include Chongqing Saihang, which will hold 55.46%, and other investors such as Seres, Ganfeng Lithium, and state-owned enterprises from Chongqing [3][4]. - There is potential for future equity adjustments, with Chongqing Douliang possibly acquiring part of Aerospace Rainbow's shares [4]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - The establishment of the joint venture aligns with national strategies for low-altitude economic development, aiming to enhance the application of drone technology in various sectors [2][5]. - The collaboration is expected to facilitate the transformation of technological achievements into market applications, supporting the creation of a world-class special aircraft industry [2].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced significant volatility, with the main contract dropping from over 100,000 yuan/ton to just above 90,000 yuan/ton, while the spot market remains relatively stable but shows signs of price decline [2][5] Price Trends - Since June, lithium carbonate prices have risen approximately 50%, from around 60,000 yuan/ton to just over 90,000 yuan/ton, with a peak of 99,300 yuan/ton on November 20 [3][4] - On November 21, the main futures contract fell by 9% to 91,000 yuan/ton, indicating a divergence between futures and spot prices [5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate is expected to shift, with a slight surplus projected for 2026, but potential monthly mismatches due to non-linear growth in energy storage installations [2][6] - Forecasts indicate that China's lithium carbonate demand will increase from 53.4 million tons in 2023 to 121.2 million tons in 2025, while supply is expected to reach 119.8 million tons [5][6] Market Sentiment and Divergence - There are contrasting views within the industry regarding future demand growth, with some executives expressing skepticism about a 50% increase across the board, citing potential demand destruction from rising battery prices [4][5] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with major lithium producers maintaining normal production levels and showing reluctance to increase supply significantly until prices stabilize above 100,000 yuan/ton for an extended period [6][8] Storage Demand Influence - The demand for lithium carbonate is increasingly driven by the energy storage sector, with projections indicating a significant increase in storage battery production and market growth [6][7] - The global energy storage market is expected to see substantial growth, with anticipated shipments reaching 780 GWh in 2026, a 50% increase from previous years [6][7]

Group 1: Market Overview - On November 20, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of capital from Northbound trading amounting to HKD 159.92 billion, with HK Stock Connect (Shanghai) contributing HKD 78.08 billion and HK Stock Connect (Shenzhen) contributing HKD 81.84 billion [2] - The most net bought stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Alibaba-W (09988), while the most net sold stocks were Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and SMIC (00981) [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) experienced a net outflow of HKD 85.62 million, while the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) had a net inflow of HKD 47.25 billion [3] - Alibaba-W (09988) saw a net inflow of HKD 1.86 billion, and Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net outflow of HKD 671 million [3] Group 3: Sector Insights - Northbound funds showed strong interest in Hong Kong ETFs, with the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) receiving significant net inflows of HKD 74.19 billion and HKD 19.13 billion respectively [6] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) faced a net outflow of HKD 25.87 million, while SMIC (00981) had a net outflow of HKD 33.64 million [5][8] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - Alibaba-W (09988) launched its official AI assistant, Qianwen APP, which is expected to enhance its AI application capabilities and drive revenue growth [6] - Xpeng Motors-W (09868) is projected to see a 40% revenue growth in 2026, with expectations of achieving breakeven for the first time [7] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) is expected to face a global lithium supply surplus of 76,000 tons and 54,000 tons in the next two years, with prices stabilizing between RMB 75,000 to 90,000 per ton [8]

Overall Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.45% to 3834.89 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index dropping by 4.02% [3] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous day's 1.72 trillion yuan [3] Sector Performance - Over 5000 stocks in the market declined, with the lithium battery supply chain experiencing a sharp downturn, particularly the lithium mining index [4] - Nearly 20 stocks, including Jiangte Electric, Tibet Summit, Jinyuan Co., Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie Co., and Ganfeng Lithium, hit the daily limit down [4] - Conversely, the shipbuilding sector saw gains, with Jiuzhiyang rising over 15%, and other companies like China Shipbuilding Defense and Kunshan Intelligent also following suit [4] - Some seafood stocks were active, with companies like Zhangzidao and Zhongshui Fishery reaching the daily limit up [4] Market Outlook - The primary catalyst for today's A-share adjustment stemmed from overseas markets, particularly the reinforced expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 50% to about one-third [6] - The U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq index falling by 2.15%, and despite Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings, it still dropped by 3.15%, leading to significant losses among other tech giants like AMD and Oracle [6] - This panic sentiment spread to Asian markets, with the Nikkei 225 index down by 2.32% and the Korean Composite Index down by 3.42%, impacting A-shares from the opening [6] - Internal factors further amplified market volatility, with a high limit-down rate of 49% and a prevailing cautious sentiment among investors [6] - The adjustment in A-shares is attributed to a combination of internal and external pressures, but signals of policy support and the inherent resilience of A-shares provide medium to long-term support [6] - The market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation in the short term, with investors advised to focus on performance certainty and policy direction while managing risks to seize structural opportunities [6]

主力资金净流出的行业有30个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金264.75亿元，其次 是电力设备行业，净流出资金为195.35亿元，净流出资金较多的还有计算机、有色金属、非银金融等行 业。 有色金属行业今日下跌5.26%，全天主力资金净流出107.83亿元，该行业所属的个股共137只，今日上涨 的有2只；下跌的有135只，跌停的有11只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有18 只，其中，净流入资金超千万元的有8只，净流入资金居首的是驰宏锌锗，今日净流入资金3803.41万 元，紧随其后的是海亮股份、新疆众和，净流入资金分别为3578.58万元、2386.28万元。有色金属行业 资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超亿元的有26只，净流出资金居前的有赣锋锂业、北方稀土、华友钴 业，净流出资金分别为10.11亿元、9.41亿元、9.00亿元。（数据宝） 有色金属行业资金流入榜 沪指11月21日下跌2.45%，申万所属行业中，跌幅居前的行业为综合、有色金属，跌幅分别为5.50%、 5.26%。有色金属行业位居今日跌幅榜第二。 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主 ...