储能乘风，锂价向青山 — 2026 年碳酸锂年报 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 金属小组 研究员: 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 联系人：杨明明 从业资格号：F03136091 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 核心观点： 1.基本面视角：2026 年碳酸锂市场预计呈现供需两旺的紧平衡格局。供应端， 全球新增产能释放将呈现显著的区域与资源类型分工，国内增长以盐湖提锂为主 力，海外则以矿石提锂项目为核心，整体产能释放高度依赖价格，同时国内盐湖 提锂产量有望实现高增长，但实际供应仍受云母矿复产等不确定性影响。需求端， 储能市场的爆发与新能源重卡渗透率的快速跨越将成为核心增长引擎，辅以新能 源汽车产销的稳健增长，共同为碳酸锂需求提供坚实而持续的动力。 2.技术面视角：在前期经历大幅上涨且市场情绪整体偏多的背景下，碳酸锂价格 出现快速反转下跌的可能性较低。当前价格已接近自碳酸锂期货上市下跌后反弹 形成的首个重要高点，若想突破该位置可能 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's new round of mineral exploration actions is expected to drive up precious metal prices due to continued investment demand [1][5][6] Group 2 - Guosheng Technology announced a stock suspension for verification due to significant stock price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of 370.20% during the specified period, indicating potential market overheating and irrational speculation risks [2] - The company's latest price-to-book ratio is significantly higher than the industry average, suggesting a bubble in stock prices, while the company remains in a loss-making state with a net profit of -151 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company is also facing uncertainties regarding external investments and high pledge ratios of controlling shareholders [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Natural Resources reported that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, significant progress was made in mineral exploration, with the discovery of 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, and substantial increases in resources such as uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potassium salt [5][6] - The exploration strategy will continue into 2026, focusing on improving the exploration, development, and reserve capabilities of strategic mineral resources [6] Group 4 - The global prices of non-ferrous metals have been on the rise, with London gold and silver experiencing significant increases of 64.56% and 147.79% respectively in 2025, marking the highest annual growth since 1980 [8] - As of January 6, 2026, non-ferrous metals continued their upward trend, driven by geopolitical risks, supply constraints, and steady demand [9] Group 5 - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen substantial net financing inflows, with a total of 10.97 billion yuan since December 2025, ranking fourth among all industries [10] - Companies such as Zijin Mining and Ganfeng Lithium have reported significant profit increases, with Zijin Mining expecting a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Natural Resources reports significant achievements in China's mineral exploration strategy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on key mineral types and the discovery of new large oil and gas fields [1] Group 1: Mineral Discovery Achievements - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China discovered 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, with substantial increases in uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potassium salt resources [1] - The Dadonggou gold mine in Liaoning has a proven resource of 1,444.49 tons [1] Group 2: Future Plans and Regulations - In 2026, China will continue a new round of mineral exploration strategy actions and implement a special rectification for "circle but not explore" practices, cracking down on illegal mining of strategic mineral resources [1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on improving the coordination of exploration, production, supply, reserve, and sales of strategic mineral resources, enhancing safety risk monitoring and early warning systems [1] Group 3: Market Performance - Since the end of the New Year holiday, the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a significant rise, with the industry index increasing by 6.98% over two trading days [1] - 16 stocks, including Tianli Composite, Hunan Silver, and China Aluminum, have recorded cumulative gains of over 10% [1] - As of December 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry has seen a net financing inflow of 10.97 billion yuan, ranking fourth among all industries [1] - Major companies such as Zijin Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Western Materials, China Uranium, Tianqi Lithium, and Xingye Silver Tin have each received net financing inflows exceeding 500 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant market movement in solid-state battery stocks, driven by the announcement of the world's first commercially viable all-solid-state battery by Finnish startup Donut Lab [1] - Solid-state batteries are expected to revolutionize the electric vehicle industry due to their superior energy density, charging speed, cycle life, and adaptability to extreme environments [1] - Aijian Securities believes that the industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with a high likelihood of using sulfide electrolytes and silicon/lithium metal anodes, which offer better mechanical properties and ionic conductivity [1] Group 2 - According to statistics, several companies have been highlighted in institutional research reports regarding solid-state batteries, including Tianci Materials, Haixi Communications, and Xiamen Tungsten New Energy [2] - Tianci Materials is in the pilot testing stage for sulfide electrolytes, focusing on performance advantages in moisture control and cycle efficiency, with plans to establish a hundred-ton pilot production line by mid-2026 [2] - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy has achieved supply of positive electrode materials for oxide route solid-state batteries and has successfully produced ton-level oxide solid electrolytes [2] Group 3 - Predictions indicate that several solid-state battery concept stocks, such as Enjie Co., Rongbai Technology, and Ganfeng Lithium, are expected to see a significant increase in net profits this year, with some companies projected to double their net profits [3] - Other companies like Tiannai Technology and EVE Energy are also expected to experience net profit growth exceeding 50% [3]

Group 1 - The energy metals sector increased by 4.11% on January 6, with Huayou Cobalt leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up 1.4% [1] - Key stocks in the energy metals sector showed significant price increases, with Huayou Cobalt rising by 8.07% to a closing price of 73.49 [1] Group 2 - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 1.878 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.272 billion yuan [2] - Major stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium attracted significant main fund inflows, with Huayou Cobalt receiving 4.43 billion yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a negative trend in several stocks, with notable outflows from Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [3]

Group 1 - Hong Kong lithium mining stocks are showing active performance, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) rising by 4.13% to HKD 55.5 [1] - Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) has increased by 3.04% to HKD 54.3 [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rise, with copper prices hitting new highs, leading to a strong opening in the non-ferrous sector [1] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has seen a significant increase of over 4%, reaching a new high since its listing, with strong capital inflow exceeding 50 million yuan [1] - Major non-ferrous stocks such as Zijin Mining and China Aluminum have shown substantial gains, with increases of 5.93% and 6.91% respectively [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions have made precious metals a focal point, with COMEX gold rising by 3% and silver by over 7% [3] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to provide guidance on the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy [3] - Supply disruptions in industrial metals are ongoing, with strikes and indefinite shutdowns reported in key mining operations [3] Group 3 - The outlook for the gold market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by expected monetary and fiscal easing from the Federal Reserve and ongoing inflationary pressures [4] - The copper market is influenced by both cyclical and structural factors, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 830,000 tons in 2026, leading to potential price increases [6] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a comprehensive exposure to various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [5][9] Group 4 - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has a leading "gold-copper content" of 45%, with significant representation in copper (31%) and gold (14%) [8] - The ETF's top five constituent stocks have a high concentration of 36%, indicating a strong focus on key strategic metals [9] - Since 2022, the Non-ferrous 50 ETF has outperformed peers with a cumulative return of 86.28%, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [13]

消息面上，继昨日突破13万元/吨关口后，碳酸锂期货今早再强势上行，主力LC2506合约大涨超8%，最 高见137760元/吨。国务院于2026年1月5日印发的《关于固体废物综合治理行动计划的通知》提出，推 动重有色金属矿采选一体化建设，促进尾矿就近充填回填，原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾 矿利用处置设施的选矿项目；推动重点行业固体废物产生量与综合消纳量逐步实现动态平衡。据期货日 报，有市场人士认为，该文件可能会对江西当前某些矿端产生一定影响。 智通财经APP获悉，锂矿股表现活跃，截至发稿，赣锋锂业(01772)涨4.13%，报55.5港元；天齐锂业 (09696)涨3.04%，报54.3港元。 ...

Group 1 - Lithium mining stocks are performing actively, with Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) rising by 4.13% to HKD 55.5 and Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) increasing by 3.04% to HKD 54.3 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures have surged, with the main LC2506 contract increasing by over 8%, reaching a peak of CNY 137,760 per ton after breaking the CNY 130,000 per ton mark [1] - The State Council's notification on January 5, 2026, regarding the comprehensive management of solid waste emphasizes the integration of heavy non-ferrous metal mining and selection, which may impact certain mining operations in Jiangxi [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Chinese Basic Materials - **2026 Outlook**: Expected stable year for Chinese commodity demand with growth rates ranging from -1.3% to +2.0% year-over-year, improving sequentially from 2H25A [1][24] Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Growth**: - Chinese copper and aluminum demand projected to grow by 2.0% and 0.8% respectively in 2026E, a deceleration from 1H25A but approximately 3% better than 2H25A [21][27] - Demand for lithium is expected to remain strong due to energy storage systems (ESS) [21] - Cement and steel demand under pressure due to weakened infrastructure activities, though government financing may improve conditions [22] - **Supply Dynamics**: - Solid supply/demand balance for most commodities, but strong pricing in 2025 may lead to changes in supply outlook [2] - Supply discipline is challenged in aluminum, while lithium shows signs of accelerated supply response; copper supply is expected to remain tight [2][17] - Anti-involution policies in oversupplied segments may improve industry capacity utilization by 10% [3] - **Acquisitions and Strategic Shifts**: - Increased acquisitions and asset injections by large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in coal, steel, and other sectors, reflecting strategic repositioning [4] Commodity-Specific Insights - **Cement**: Positive outlook with expected recovery in capacity utilization from 49% to 60% by end of 2026E due to capacity closures [17] - **Coal**: Stable pricing anticipated due to balanced demand and supply [18] - **Copper**: Continued strong pricing expected due to limited supply growth [17] - **Lithium**: Market expected to tighten in 1H26E before easing in 2H26E, with potential for a balanced market depending on supply responses [17] - **Steel**: Margins expected to remain depressed with slower capacity work [17] - **Gold**: Forecasted price to reach US$4,900/oz by Dec-2026, supported by central bank purchases [20] Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Ratings**: - Positive ratings maintained for Zijin-H/A, CMOC-H/A, and Anhui Conch-H/A; cautious stance on Ganfeng-H/A and Tianqi-H/A [16] - Upgrades for most coal names to NEUTRAL from Sell, indicating a more constructive view on coal [16] - **Market Dynamics**: - The contribution from the property sector to steel and cement demand is now limited, accounting for only 7-8% [22] - Expectations of flat coal demand driven by stable coal-fired power generation [23] - **Key Assumptions for Demand Estimates**: - Infrastructure investment growth projected at 4% for 2026E, with traditional infrastructure expected to grow by 1% [26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Chinese basic materials industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.