据港交所公告， 摩根大通 对 赣锋锂业 H股的多头持仓于2月24日从4.83%增至5.36%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports has triggered a significant market reaction, with lithium carbonate futures surging over 11% to exceed 160,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential new cycle in the lithium market driven by supply disruptions and surging demand from energy storage batteries [1][2][3]. Supply Side - The ban from Zimbabwe is expected to have a short-term impact, with current compliant export capacity limited to 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026, increasing to 60,000 tons in 2027 [3][5]. - The global lithium supply is projected to be approximately 202,000 tons of LCE in 2026, with demand expected to reach around 201.7 million tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [22]. - The recovery of lithium production in Australia is anticipated to take at least a quarter, with many projects still in the planning stages, which limits immediate supply response to rising prices [8][12]. Demand Side - The demand for lithium is increasingly driven by energy storage, with global shipments of storage batteries expected to reach 900 GWh in 2026, translating to a demand for approximately 540,000 tons of LCE, a 50% year-on-year increase [16][18]. - Despite a temporary slowdown in demand for power batteries due to policy changes, the overall demand for lithium is expected to rebound significantly in 2026, with projections of 1.9 million electric vehicles sold in China, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [16][18]. Pricing Dynamics - The current low inventory levels, with social stocks of lithium carbonate dropping to around 10,300 tons, have significantly amplified price elasticity, leading to a market that is trading on "shortage driven by restocking" rather than waiting for supply-demand equilibrium [18][24]. - The pricing logic in the lithium market is shifting from "current period looseness" to "future period tightness," as financial attributes of lithium are becoming more pronounced, with market participants pricing in future scarcity [25][26]. Geopolitical Factors - The emergence of a "Lithium OPEC" in South America, involving Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, aims to regain pricing power over lithium resources, which could further complicate supply dynamics [6][7]. - Geopolitical and policy variables, such as nationalization efforts in Chile and Mexico's strategic designation of lithium, are expected to layer additional pricing options that could influence market dynamics over time [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that lithium carbonate prices could exceed 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term, supported by low inventory, concentrated supply disruptions, and the upcoming demand peak [26]. - The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with differing views on whether prices above 200,000 yuan/ton will be sustainable or if they represent a temporary window before supply increases catch up [26].

稀美资源(09936)涨超14%再创新高，截至发稿，涨10.3%，报15.42港元，成交额1366.47万港元。 辉立证券发布研报称，稀美资源为中国钽铌冶金产品核心生产商。赣锋锂业（002460）目前持有稀美资 源15.79%股权，为第二大股东。赣锋锂业作为全球锂行业龙头，长期聚焦新能源金属产业链。钽铌作 为半导体、航空航太等高端领域的关键材料，与锂资源同属战略金属范畴。赣锋锂业通过持股稀美资 源，或旨在拓展战略金属版图，完善在高端材料领域的产业链协同。 消息面上，美国拟为全球关键矿产贸易制定参考价格。环球富盛发布研报称，铌钽作为重要的战略资 源，在国防军工领域具有不可替代的地位。近年来，随着国内需求爆发，自主掌控铌钽资源的重要性愈 发凸显。随着国家对稀有金属产业的日益重视和持续投入，国内铌钽行业迎来了快速发展的黄金时期。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium Mining and Export - **Region**: Zimbabwe and China Core Insights - **Export Delays**: Zimbabwe's Minister of Mines announced potential delays in the processing and issuance of export permits for minerals, including lithium, to address malpractices in exports [1] - **Impact on Supply**: In 2025, China imported approximately 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene concentrate from Zimbabwe, contributing to an estimated lithium output of around 140,000 tonnes LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent), which represents about 9% of global supply [2] - **Future Projections**: Expected lithium output from Zimbabwe is projected to increase to approximately 220,000 tonnes LCE (11% of global supply) in 2026 [2] - **Market Tightness**: Potential delays in lithium exports from Zimbabwe may tighten the lithium market further, benefiting companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, which do not have exposure to Zimbabwe [2] Company-Specific Insights - **Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. (002466.SZ, 9696.HK)**: - Valuation based on a DCF model with a WACC of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2% applied beyond the forecast period of 2025-33 [6][9] - **Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. (002460.SZ, 1772.HK)**: - Valuation derived from H-share price target adjusted for exchange rates and peer comparisons, with a base case 2026 P/B of 2.3x [5] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Shortages of lithium raw materials could constrain production increases, leading to tighter supply of lithium chemicals in China [8] - Higher-than-expected growth in the electric vehicle (EV) market could drive demand beyond current forecasts [8] - Expansion of A-H share premium could benefit valuations [8] - **Downside Risks**: - EV market demand may fall below expectations, impacting lithium prices and production growth [11] - Faster-than-expected global lithium supply growth could lead to reduced prices and profitability [11] Additional Considerations - **Zimbabwe's Economic Reliance**: Zimbabwe's economy heavily relies on mineral exports, which account for over 60% of its export value, suggesting that any export delays may be temporary [2] - **Market Dynamics**: The ongoing strong demand for lithium is leading to the digestion of existing inventories, which may further influence market conditions [2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the lithium market, particularly focusing on the implications of Zimbabwe's export policies and the performance outlook for key companies in the sector.

【有色ETF汇添富（159652）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 有色金属 | 1.52% | 14.47% | | 2 | 603993 | 洛阳镇业 | 有色金属 | 4.43% | 7.55% | | 3 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 有色金属 | 5.52% | 5.58% | | 4 | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 有色金属 | 2.80% | 4.58% | | ਟ | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 有色金属 | 3.05% | 4.01% | | 6 | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 有色金属 | 2.29% | 3.40% | | 7 | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 有色金属 | 0.71% | 3.26% | | 8 | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 有色金属 | 1.82% | 3.24% | | ਰੇ | 000426 | 兴业银锡 | 有色金属 | 2.86% | 2.85% ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after two consecutive days of gains, indicating market volatility in the Chinese stock market [1] - The AI industry chain saw significant strength driven by Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report, leading to notable increases in core stocks [2][3] Key Companies and Performance - **PCB Sector**: - Huadian Co., Ltd. (002463.SZ) hit the daily limit up - Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) increased by 9.23% [2][3] - **Lithium Mining**: - Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) rose by 2.61% - Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) increased by 4.79% - Companies with asset exposure in Zimbabwe, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) and Zhongkuang Resources (002738.SZ), faced declines of 5.2% and 3.33% respectively [3] - **Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL)**: - Experienced a nearly 5% drop due to concerns over lithium raw material cost pressures [3] Sector Performance - The real estate sector saw a pullback following a rise due to relaxed home purchase policies in Shanghai [4] - The artificial intelligence data center sector showed strong performance due to expectations of a recovery in computing power leasing business [5] Investment Recommendations - A preference for selling in the consumer and insurance sectors, while maintaining a buy stance on consumer electronics, electrical equipment, and printed circuit boards [5] - The battery sector presents two viewpoints, but the overall sentiment leans towards buying [6]

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月27日，有色ETF华安（512940）开盘跌0.78%，报1.022元。有色ETF华安（512940）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘跌0.43%，洛阳钼业跌0.35%，北方稀土涨0.05%，华友钴业跌1.14%，中国铝业跌0.82%，中 金黄金跌0.23%，山东黄金涨0.71%，赣锋锂业跌2.00%，兴业银锡跌1.04%，厦门钨业涨0.00%。 有色ETF华安（512940）业绩比较基准为中证有色金属矿业主题指数收益率，管理人为华安基金管理有 限公司，基金经理为许之彦，成立（2026-02-04）以来回报为3.32%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

记者丨董鹏 编辑丨郑世凤 张明艳 金珊 本就处于紧平衡的锂盐市场，供给端再添重要变量。 2026年2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部发布锂矿出口禁令，涵盖在途货物，且无明确恢复时间表。 津巴布韦，是过去几年全球锂精矿增长最迅速的国家之一，此前曾吸引多家中资锂业公司参与当地资源开发。 相关数据显示，2025年，中国进口锂精矿总量约为775.1万吨，其中从津巴布韦进口量达120.4万吨，占总进口量的15.5%左右，是仅次于澳大利亚的第二大 进口来源国。 因为有刚果（金）暂停出口引发2025年钴价上涨的案例在先，此次津巴布韦限制锂精矿出口也加重了市场各方对锂产品涨价的预期。 不过，节后碳酸锂期、现价格已经连续大涨，逼近今年1月下旬的前期高点，加之该品种多空博弈激烈，26日多个期货合约高开低走，Wind锂矿指数涨幅也 大幅收窄至1.19%。 "价值留存"战略 津巴布韦加强自身锂资源管控，此前已有征兆。 2022年12月，时任矿业部长奇坦多签署禁令，首次禁止未加工锂原矿出口，启动"价值留存"战略，以迫使矿业公司在当地精炼矿产,从其国家资源中获取更 大的经济收益。 不过，也正是在2022年四季度，全球锂价触顶回落，到2025年碳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on lithium ore and concentrate exports has created significant disruptions in the global lithium supply chain, affecting nearly 20% of China's lithium raw material supply and potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month starting in May 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Zimbabwe's Ban - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, including shipments already at sea, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote domestic processing [1][3]. - In 2025, China imported 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, with 1.2 million tons (19%) coming from Zimbabwe, highlighting the critical role of Zimbabwe in China's lithium supply [3]. - The ban is expected to lead to a significant increase in lithium prices, with domestic carbonate lithium futures prices surging to over 171,440 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 17% increase in just two trading days [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The immediate market reaction saw a spike in lithium prices, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 162,000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8% since the beginning of the month [4]. - Companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities in Zimbabwe are positioned to benefit from the ban, as they can still apply for export licenses while others face supply constraints [6]. - A total of 13 domestic companies with lithium carbonate production or lithium mining resources are now in the spotlight, with 7 of them forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [7]. Group 3: Company Profiles and Strategies - The first tier of companies, termed "ban immune," includes Huayou Cobalt, which has established deep processing capacity in Zimbabwe and is set to produce lithium sulfate, allowing it to circumvent the export ban [9]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has a strong position with its control over the Bikita lithium mine, which allows it to apply for export licenses despite the ban, and it has a stockpile of 150,000 tons of lithium concentrate to buffer against short-term export restrictions [11]. - The second tier includes resource giants like Ganfeng Lithium, which has diversified global resources and is expected to see a significant increase in production from 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons by 2026, benefiting from rising lithium prices [11][13]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ban is prompting a reevaluation of companies with overseas resources, local processing capabilities, or stable domestic sources, as their strategic value is being reassessed in the market [17]. - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and the rising stock prices of lithium mining companies reflect this market reassessment and the potential for long-term growth in the sector [17].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） （股份代號：1772） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條 刊 發。 根據中華人民共和國的有關法例規定，江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司（「本 公 司」）在 深 圳 證 券 交 易 所 網 站（http://www.szse.cn/）刊 發 了 以 下 公 告。茲 載 列 如 下，僅 供 參 閱。 承董事會命 江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司 董事長 李良彬 中 國‧江 西 於 本 公 告 日 期，董 事 會 成 員 包 括 本 公 司 執 行 董 事 李 良 彬 先 生、王 曉 申 先 生、沈 海 博 先 生、黃 婷 女 士 及 李 承 霖 先 生；本 公 司 非 執 行 董 事 羅 榮 女 士； 本 公 司 獨 立 非 執 行 董 事 王 金 本 先 生、 ...