Summary of Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. - **Industry**: Lithium and Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb95,384 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$55.20 - **Current Price**: HK$55.10 (as of January 29, 2026) Key Financial Results - **Preliminary Full-Year 2025 Results**: - Net profit of Rmb369-553 million, compared to a loss of Rmb7.9 billion in 2024, but below consensus expectations of Rmb777 million [1] - **4Q25 Net Profit**: - Estimated at Rmb189-373 million, an increase from Rmb95 million in 3Q25 [2] - **Full-Year 2025 Recurring Profit**: - Rmb240-360 million, with an implied recurring net profit of Rmb170-290 million in 4Q25, up from Rmb69 million in 3Q25 [2] Market Dynamics - **Lithium Price Increases**: - Notable increase of 19% quarter-over-quarter in 4Q25, with expectations of a further 61% increase in 1Q26, positively impacting Tianqi's profitability [2] Legal and Regulatory Updates - **Supreme Court of Chile Ruling**: - Tianqi received a final judgment regarding a Partnership Agreement with SQM and Codelco, dismissing a claim of illegality. This ruling is not expected to materially impact Tianqi's current profits [3][4] Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Projected EPS for 2025 is Rmb0.43, with estimates increasing to Rmb2.67 in 2026 and Rmb3.01 in 2027 [6] - **Revenue Projections**: - Expected revenue of Rmb11,087 million in 2025, increasing to Rmb21,117 million in 2026 and Rmb22,983 million in 2027 [6] Valuation Methodology - **Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model**: - Assumes a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate for free cash flow of 2% beyond the forecast period of 2025-2033 [9] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Higher-than-expected lithium prices and output growth in upstream and midstream resources [11] - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected lithium prices and output growth in upstream and midstream resources [11] Analyst Insights - **Industry View**: - The lithium industry is viewed as attractive, with expectations of strong performance over the next 12-18 months [6][34] Additional Information - **52-Week Stock Price Range**: - HK$60.30 to HK$19.00 [6] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: - HK$180 million [6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., highlighting financial performance, market dynamics, legal updates, and future projections.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Tianqi Lithium Industries experienced a significant stock decline, hitting the limit down price of 53.21 yuan, with a drop of 8.98%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 883.13 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 794.14 billion yuan, with a total transaction amount of 29.99 billion yuan as of the report date [1][2]. Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium is facing operational challenges, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 29.66% in Q3 2025 due to falling sales prices and volumes, compounded by a lawsuit setback that negatively impacted shareholder equity [2]. - The lithium industry is currently under pressure from market demand and price fluctuations, with a downward trend in lithium product prices affecting Tianqi Lithium's performance. Additionally, the anticipated majority ownership of SQM by Codelco starting in 2031 raises concerns about long-term investment returns for Tianqi Lithium [2]. - As a core player in the lithium mining sector, Tianqi Lithium's stock price is influenced by overall market sentiment towards lithium prices. A pessimistic outlook on lithium prices can lead to capital withdrawal from the sector, exacerbating downward pressure on Tianqi's stock price [2]. - Technical indicators such as MACD crossovers and stock price movements below the Bollinger Bands midline can trigger sell-offs by technical investors, further contributing to the stock's decline [2].

Group 1: Profit Forecasts - Dongcai Technology expects a net profit of approximately 300 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 65.73% [1] - Aerospace Electronics anticipates a net profit of 192 million to 247 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 55% to 65% year-on-year [2] - Oulai New Materials forecasts a loss of 33 million to 48 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 28.17 million yuan in the previous year [3] - Jiu Ding New Materials projects a net profit of 85 million to 98 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 187.68% to 231.68% [5] - Chuan Yi Technology expects a net profit of 78 million to 103 million yuan for 2025, reversing a loss of 73.47 million yuan from the previous year [6] - Ju Yi Technology anticipates a net profit of 70 million to 105 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 228.36% to 392.54% [7] - ST Xifa forecasts a net profit of 110 million to 160 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 319.91% to 510.77% [19] - Light Media expects a net profit of approximately 1.5 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 413.67% to 550.65% [34] - Tianqi Lithium anticipates a profit of 369 million to 553 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 7.905 billion yuan in the previous year [31] Group 2: Loss Forecasts - Star Ring Technology expects a loss of 220 million to 250 million yuan for 2025, with a projected revenue of 420 million to 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.06% to 21.13% [9] - Filinger anticipates a loss of 65 million to 85 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 37.31 million yuan in the previous year [10] - Jiahe Meikang forecasts a loss of 240 million to 280 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 256 million yuan in the previous year [11] - Light Textile City expects a loss of 15 million to 22.5 million yuan for 2025 [23] - Ailon Technology anticipates a profit of 14.96 million to 22.44 million yuan for 2025, reversing a loss of 21.70 million yuan from the previous year [24] - ST Yun Chuang forecasts a loss of 139 million to 149 million yuan for 2025, with projected revenue of 53.5 million to 57.5 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.15% to 14.09% [42] - Meike Home expects a loss of 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 864 million yuan in the previous year [36] Group 3: Shareholder Actions - Huafeng Chemical announced that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 0.73% of the company's shares [8] - Naxinwei disclosed that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 1.75% of the company's shares [12] - Shikong Technology announced that a shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [13] - Yandong Micro disclosed that a shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by no more than 1% of the company's shares [37] - Daily Interaction announced that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 0.135% of the company's shares [41]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline in lithium mining stocks, with notable drops including Nepean Mining falling nearly 12% and several other companies hitting the daily limit down [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a limit down, with a decrease of 11%, currently priced at 148,200 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performances included Nepean Mining down 11.46% with a market cap of 8.152 billion yuan, and other companies like Meiyuan Co. and Tibet Zhufeng both down 10% [2] - Other significant declines included Western Mining down 9.99% with a market cap of 84.8 billion yuan, and Tianqi Lithium down 8.74% with a market cap of 88.5 billion yuan [2]

消息面上，天齐锂业就SQM与智利国家铜业公司战略合作提起的诉讼，以败诉告终。阿塔卡马盐湖的 核心锂业务将由智利国家铜业公司持有多数股权，并将由智利国家铜业公司自2031年起合并报表。 SQM的国有化将使得天齐锂业从SQM所获得的收益大幅降低。 天齐锂业在公告中指出，一旦上述合资事项正式生效，SQM未来收益可能减少，进而影响天齐锂业在 SQM的投资收益及分红，可能导致公司须对该投资计提减值准备。 智通财经APP获悉，天齐锂业(09696)再跌超8%，截至发稿，跌8.44%，报50.45港元，成交额1.35亿港 元。 ...

天齐锂业在公告中指出，一旦上述合资事项正式生效，SQM未来收益可能减少，进而影响天齐锂业在 SQM的投资收益及分红，可能导致公司须对该投资计提减值准备。 消息面上，天齐锂业就SQM与智利国家铜业公司战略合作提起的诉讼，以败诉告终。阿塔卡马盐湖的 核心锂业务将由智利国家铜业公司持有多数股权，并将由智利国家铜业公司自2031年起合并报表。 SQM的国有化将使得天齐锂业从SQM所获得的收益大幅降低。 天齐锂业（002466）(09696)再跌超8%，截至发稿，跌8.44%，报50.45港元，成交额1.35亿港元。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月30日，天齐锂业港股下跌6.5%，至每股51.50港元。 ...

客户端 天齐锂业（09696）发布公告，本公司财务部门按中国企业会计准则初步测算，预期本集团截至2025年 12月31日止年度（本报告期）归属于公司股东的净利润区间预计为人民币3.69亿元至人民币5.53亿元， 而上年同期本集团取得归属于公司股东的亏损净额约为人民币79.05亿元； 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润区间预计为人民币2.4亿元至人民币3.6亿元，而上年同期本集团取得扣除 非经常性损益后的亏损净额约为人民币79.23亿元；及基本每股收益区间预计为人民币0.22元至人民币 0.34元（上年同期：基本每股亏损为人民币4.82元）。 责任编辑：卢昱君 天齐锂业（09696）发布公告，本公司财务部门按中国企业会计准则初步测算，预期本集团截至2025年 12月31日止年度（本报告期）归属于公司股东的净利润区间预计为人民币3.69亿元至人民币5.53亿元， 而上年同期本集团取得归属于公司股东的亏损净额约为人民币79.05亿元； 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润区间预计为人民币2.4亿元至人民币3.6亿元，而上年同期本集团取得扣除 非经常性损益后的亏损净额约为人民币79.23亿元；及基本每股收益区间预计为人民币0.22元至 ...

作为全球领先的锂产品供应商，天齐锂业的资源布局一直在不断优化和强化。公司拥有的全球顶级锂资 源资产发挥了"压舱石"作用，格林布什锂矿的稳定供应和成本优势，为公司在行业下行阶段维持健康的 毛利空间提供了坚实保障。天齐锂业通过一系列举措成功将资源优势转化为成本优势，展现了卓越的运 营管理能力。过去一年里，公司坚定地推进内部流程优化和产业链协同，迎来了经营质量的实质性改 善。 展望未来，随着全球能源转型和电动汽车普及的长期趋势持续，储能市场的快速发展将为锂需求打开新 的增长空间。同时，行业调整期间，高成本产能的逐步出清有望优化供给格局，将进一步巩固天齐锂业 作为行业龙头企业的市场地位。 公司通过优化控股子公司的定价机制，显著缩短了锂矿的定价周期，公司全资子公司的化学级锂精矿定 价机制与公司锂化工产品销售定价机制在以前年度存在的时间周期错配的影响已大幅减弱。随着国内新 购锂精矿陆续入库及库存锂精矿的逐步消化，公司各锂化工产品生产基地的生产成本得以显著优化，有 效对冲了产品销售价格下滑带来的压力。同时公司抓住了2025年澳元走强带来的汇兑收益，成功在行业 筑底阶段巩固了自身的盈利韧性。 另外，值得关注的是，公司扣除非经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. is expected to report a positive net profit for the year 2025, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [1]. - The company anticipates a positive net profit, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [2]. Group 2: Communication with Auditors - The financial data related to the performance forecast has not yet been audited by the accounting firm [2]. - There are no significant disagreements between the company and the auditors regarding the performance forecast as of the announcement date [2]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Changes - Despite fluctuations in the lithium product market leading to a decrease in sales prices compared to the previous year, the company benefits from a shortened pricing cycle for lithium ore from its subsidiary Windfield Holdings Pty Ltd [3]. - The pricing mechanism for chemical-grade lithium concentrate from its wholly-owned subsidiary Talison Lithium Pty Ltd has aligned more closely with the sales pricing mechanism for lithium chemical products, reducing previous discrepancies [3]. - The company expects significant growth in investment income from its joint venture, Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM), based on Bloomberg's forecast for SQM's earnings per share for Q4 2025 [3]. - The Australian dollar has strengthened against the US dollar, resulting in increased foreign exchange gains compared to 2024 [4]. - The company plans to conduct impairment tests on assets showing signs of impairment as of the balance sheet date, with preliminary estimates indicating a decrease in impairment losses compared to 2024 [4].