Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, with notable declines in share prices across multiple sectors, particularly in the rare metals and non-ferrous metals industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - BlueFocus Media experienced a fund outflow of 1.638 billion yuan, with a share price decline of 3.59% [2] - Northern Rare Earth saw a fund outflow of 1.321 billion yuan, with a share price drop of 8.72% [2] - Zijin Mining reported a fund outflow of 1.256 billion yuan, with a decrease in share price of 8.33% [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals had a fund outflow of 1.232 billion yuan, with a share price decline of 10.01% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum experienced a fund outflow of 1.128 billion yuan, with a share price drop of 9.21% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The rare metals sector, represented by Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum, is facing significant fund outflows and price declines [2][3] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, is also experiencing substantial outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The energy metals sector, represented by Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, shows notable fund outflows, with share price declines of 8% and 7.46% respectively [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the anticipation of Kevin Warsh being nominated as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which has led to a significant drop in the prices of non-ferrous stocks [1] - The market prediction for Warsh's nomination has surged to 87% according to Polymarket, indicating strong market sentiment towards a hawkish candidate [1] - The report from Guojin Securities outlines the main logic for the non-ferrous sector this year, highlighting low supply due to low capital expenditure, domestic anti-competition measures, and overseas resource nationalism [1] Group 2 - The demand for non-ferrous metals is driven by AI, new energy, and the reconstruction of manufacturing in Europe and the US [1] - The report emphasizes strong inventory replenishment due to low existing inventories across supply chains and the initiation of a national reserve cycle in the US [1] - Despite recent price volatility due to regional issues, the fundamental outlook for commodity prices remains strong, with macroeconomic fluctuations being the only potential disruptor [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) saw significant declines in major stocks, with Nanshan Aluminum leading at a drop of 10.05% [2] - The non-ferrous ETF Penghua (159880) decreased by 8.66%, with a latest price of 2.39 yuan and a net inflow of 11 million units over the past seven days [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Ganfeng Lithium [2]

Summary of Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. - **Industry**: Lithium and Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb95,384 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$55.20 - **Current Price**: HK$55.10 (as of January 29, 2026) Key Financial Results - **Preliminary Full-Year 2025 Results**: - Net profit of Rmb369-553 million, compared to a loss of Rmb7.9 billion in 2024, but below consensus expectations of Rmb777 million [1] - **4Q25 Net Profit**: - Estimated at Rmb189-373 million, an increase from Rmb95 million in 3Q25 [2] - **Full-Year 2025 Recurring Profit**: - Rmb240-360 million, with an implied recurring net profit of Rmb170-290 million in 4Q25, up from Rmb69 million in 3Q25 [2] Market Dynamics - **Lithium Price Increases**: - Notable increase of 19% quarter-over-quarter in 4Q25, with expectations of a further 61% increase in 1Q26, positively impacting Tianqi's profitability [2] Legal and Regulatory Updates - **Supreme Court of Chile Ruling**: - Tianqi received a final judgment regarding a Partnership Agreement with SQM and Codelco, dismissing a claim of illegality. This ruling is not expected to materially impact Tianqi's current profits [3][4] Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Projected EPS for 2025 is Rmb0.43, with estimates increasing to Rmb2.67 in 2026 and Rmb3.01 in 2027 [6] - **Revenue Projections**: - Expected revenue of Rmb11,087 million in 2025, increasing to Rmb21,117 million in 2026 and Rmb22,983 million in 2027 [6] Valuation Methodology - **Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model**: - Assumes a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate for free cash flow of 2% beyond the forecast period of 2025-2033 [9] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Higher-than-expected lithium prices and output growth in upstream and midstream resources [11] - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected lithium prices and output growth in upstream and midstream resources [11] Analyst Insights - **Industry View**: - The lithium industry is viewed as attractive, with expectations of strong performance over the next 12-18 months [6][34] Additional Information - **52-Week Stock Price Range**: - HK$60.30 to HK$19.00 [6] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: - HK$180 million [6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., highlighting financial performance, market dynamics, legal updates, and future projections.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Tianqi Lithium Industries experienced a significant stock decline, hitting the limit down price of 53.21 yuan, with a drop of 8.98%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 883.13 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 794.14 billion yuan, with a total transaction amount of 29.99 billion yuan as of the report date [1][2]. Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium is facing operational challenges, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 29.66% in Q3 2025 due to falling sales prices and volumes, compounded by a lawsuit setback that negatively impacted shareholder equity [2]. - The lithium industry is currently under pressure from market demand and price fluctuations, with a downward trend in lithium product prices affecting Tianqi Lithium's performance. Additionally, the anticipated majority ownership of SQM by Codelco starting in 2031 raises concerns about long-term investment returns for Tianqi Lithium [2]. - As a core player in the lithium mining sector, Tianqi Lithium's stock price is influenced by overall market sentiment towards lithium prices. A pessimistic outlook on lithium prices can lead to capital withdrawal from the sector, exacerbating downward pressure on Tianqi's stock price [2]. - Technical indicators such as MACD crossovers and stock price movements below the Bollinger Bands midline can trigger sell-offs by technical investors, further contributing to the stock's decline [2].

Group 1: Profit Forecasts - Dongcai Technology expects a net profit of approximately 300 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 65.73% [1] - Aerospace Electronics anticipates a net profit of 192 million to 247 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 55% to 65% year-on-year [2] - Oulai New Materials forecasts a loss of 33 million to 48 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 28.17 million yuan in the previous year [3] - Jiu Ding New Materials projects a net profit of 85 million to 98 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 187.68% to 231.68% [5] - Chuan Yi Technology expects a net profit of 78 million to 103 million yuan for 2025, reversing a loss of 73.47 million yuan from the previous year [6] - Ju Yi Technology anticipates a net profit of 70 million to 105 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 228.36% to 392.54% [7] - ST Xifa forecasts a net profit of 110 million to 160 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 319.91% to 510.77% [19] - Light Media expects a net profit of approximately 1.5 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 413.67% to 550.65% [34] - Tianqi Lithium anticipates a profit of 369 million to 553 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 7.905 billion yuan in the previous year [31] Group 2: Loss Forecasts - Star Ring Technology expects a loss of 220 million to 250 million yuan for 2025, with a projected revenue of 420 million to 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.06% to 21.13% [9] - Filinger anticipates a loss of 65 million to 85 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 37.31 million yuan in the previous year [10] - Jiahe Meikang forecasts a loss of 240 million to 280 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 256 million yuan in the previous year [11] - Light Textile City expects a loss of 15 million to 22.5 million yuan for 2025 [23] - Ailon Technology anticipates a profit of 14.96 million to 22.44 million yuan for 2025, reversing a loss of 21.70 million yuan from the previous year [24] - ST Yun Chuang forecasts a loss of 139 million to 149 million yuan for 2025, with projected revenue of 53.5 million to 57.5 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.15% to 14.09% [42] - Meike Home expects a loss of 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 864 million yuan in the previous year [36] Group 3: Shareholder Actions - Huafeng Chemical announced that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 0.73% of the company's shares [8] - Naxinwei disclosed that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 1.75% of the company's shares [12] - Shikong Technology announced that a shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [13] - Yandong Micro disclosed that a shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by no more than 1% of the company's shares [37] - Daily Interaction announced that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 0.135% of the company's shares [41]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline in lithium mining stocks, with notable drops including Nepean Mining falling nearly 12% and several other companies hitting the daily limit down [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a limit down, with a decrease of 11%, currently priced at 148,200 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performances included Nepean Mining down 11.46% with a market cap of 8.152 billion yuan, and other companies like Meiyuan Co. and Tibet Zhufeng both down 10% [2] - Other significant declines included Western Mining down 9.99% with a market cap of 84.8 billion yuan, and Tianqi Lithium down 8.74% with a market cap of 88.5 billion yuan [2]

消息面上，天齐锂业就SQM与智利国家铜业公司战略合作提起的诉讼，以败诉告终。阿塔卡马盐湖的 核心锂业务将由智利国家铜业公司持有多数股权，并将由智利国家铜业公司自2031年起合并报表。 SQM的国有化将使得天齐锂业从SQM所获得的收益大幅降低。 天齐锂业在公告中指出，一旦上述合资事项正式生效，SQM未来收益可能减少，进而影响天齐锂业在 SQM的投资收益及分红，可能导致公司须对该投资计提减值准备。 智通财经APP获悉，天齐锂业(09696)再跌超8%，截至发稿，跌8.44%，报50.45港元，成交额1.35亿港 元。 ...

天齐锂业在公告中指出，一旦上述合资事项正式生效，SQM未来收益可能减少，进而影响天齐锂业在 SQM的投资收益及分红，可能导致公司须对该投资计提减值准备。 消息面上，天齐锂业就SQM与智利国家铜业公司战略合作提起的诉讼，以败诉告终。阿塔卡马盐湖的 核心锂业务将由智利国家铜业公司持有多数股权，并将由智利国家铜业公司自2031年起合并报表。 SQM的国有化将使得天齐锂业从SQM所获得的收益大幅降低。 天齐锂业（002466）(09696)再跌超8%，截至发稿，跌8.44%，报50.45港元，成交额1.35亿港元。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月30日，天齐锂业港股下跌6.5%，至每股51.50港元。 ...

客户端 天齐锂业（09696）发布公告，本公司财务部门按中国企业会计准则初步测算，预期本集团截至2025年 12月31日止年度（本报告期）归属于公司股东的净利润区间预计为人民币3.69亿元至人民币5.53亿元， 而上年同期本集团取得归属于公司股东的亏损净额约为人民币79.05亿元； 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润区间预计为人民币2.4亿元至人民币3.6亿元，而上年同期本集团取得扣除 非经常性损益后的亏损净额约为人民币79.23亿元；及基本每股收益区间预计为人民币0.22元至人民币 0.34元（上年同期：基本每股亏损为人民币4.82元）。 责任编辑：卢昱君 天齐锂业（09696）发布公告，本公司财务部门按中国企业会计准则初步测算，预期本集团截至2025年 12月31日止年度（本报告期）归属于公司股东的净利润区间预计为人民币3.69亿元至人民币5.53亿元， 而上年同期本集团取得归属于公司股东的亏损净额约为人民币79.05亿元； 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润区间预计为人民币2.4亿元至人民币3.6亿元，而上年同期本集团取得扣除 非经常性损益后的亏损净额约为人民币79.23亿元；及基本每股收益区间预计为人民币0.22元至 ...