| 截至月份: | 2025年3月31日 | | | | | | 狀態: 新提交 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | 公司名稱: | 天齊鋰業股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年4月3日 | | | | | | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | + | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09696 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 增加多櫃檯證券代號 | | | | | | | | | | 手動填寫 | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 164,122,200 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 164,122,200 | | 增加 減少 / (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | ...

Summary of Tianqi Lithium Corp Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium Corp - **Ticker**: 002466.SZ - **Sector**: Basic Materials - **Main Activities**: Development, manufacturing, and shipment of lithium products including lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, and lithium hydroxide [12][22] Key Financial Highlights - **FY24 Results**: Reported a net loss of CNY 7.9 billion, aligning with the lower end of the profit warning range (CNY 7.1-8.2 billion) [1] - **4Q24 Performance**: - Net loss widened to CNY 2.2 billion, primarily due to an asset impairment loss of CNY 1.7 billion, including CNY 1.3 billion related to the Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Plant 2 in Australia [1] - Revenue decreased by 58% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter to CNY 3 billion, attributed to weak lithium prices and reduced shipments of lithium concentrate [1][15] Production and Capacity Expansion - **Chemical Grade Plant 3 (CGP3)**: Construction at Greenbushes mine is on track, with first spodumene production expected in 4Q25. Total nameplate capacity will reach 2.14 million tons per annum post-completion [2] - **Domestic Refinery Plans**: Additional capacity of 30,000 tons per annum (ktpa) for lithium hydroxide and 1,000 tons for lithium metals is under construction [2] - **Volume Growth Forecast**: Estimated shipment volumes of lithium chemicals to grow by 5-12% from FY25 to FY27 [2] Financial Health and Outlook - **Balance Sheet**: Net-debt-to-equity ratio of 19% as of end-2024, with CNY 5.8 billion cash on hand, sufficient to cover capital expenditures for ongoing projects [3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Positive operating cash flow of CNY 5.55 billion in FY24 [3] - **Profitability Recovery**: Expected gradual recovery in profitability for the lithium refinery business as high-cost inventories are consumed and pricing mechanisms are adjusted [3] - **Earnings Forecast**: FY25 and FY26 earnings revised down to CNY 1.07 billion and CNY 1.96 billion respectively, reflecting slower-than-expected recovery in lithium prices [3] Valuation and Target Price - **Target Price**: Reduced to CNY 32.00, based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.2x for FY2026, which is 1 standard deviation below historical averages [5][13] - **Current Trading**: Stock trades at 1.2x FY26F P/B, with an implied upside of 3.3% from the closing price of CNY 30.99 [5][22] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Include slower-than-expected capacity construction, lower lithium prices, and weaker demand in downstream sectors like electric vehicles and energy storage systems [13][17] - **Upside Risks**: Higher-than-expected lithium prices and stronger downstream demand could positively impact performance [18] Additional Insights - **Market Performance**: The stock has seen a decline of 34.8% over the past 12 months [9] - **ESG Commitment**: Tianqi Lithium is focused on monitoring environmental impact and ensuring sustainability in its operations, contributing to the electrification trend in the automotive market [14] This summary encapsulates the critical points from the conference call regarding Tianqi Lithium Corp's financial performance, production outlook, valuation, and associated risks.

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 13.063 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 67.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208.32% [1] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to the drop in lithium prices, with the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 being 93,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 65% year-on-year [1] - The company faced significant asset impairment losses amounting to 2.114 billion yuan in 2024, largely due to the full impairment provision for the Australian Phase II lithium hydroxide project [1] Group 2 - The company is actively developing new green extraction technologies for high-energy metallic lithium and is advancing the industrialization of sulfide lithium, a core material for next-generation solid-state batteries [1] - The company has established a lithium chemical product capacity of approximately 91,600 tons per year, with plans to expand total capacity to 122,600 tons per year [2] - The company signed an investment agreement with other lithium industry enterprises to jointly establish a tailings storage project and a water intake facility project [2] Group 3 - Due to the recent decline in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices, the company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1.253 billion yuan and 1.815 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which are reductions of 71.1% and 67.9% [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its leading position in the global industry and quality resource layout [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industry is focusing on technological innovation and optimization of its layout, with the establishment of the Innovation Research Institute aimed at advancing research in next-generation high-performance lithium battery materials and other related fields [1][2]. Group 1: Innovation Research Institute - The Tianqi Lithium Innovation Research Institute has a total construction area of over 4,500 square meters and is located in the Chengdu Science and Technology Innovation Ecological Island [1]. - The institute will focus on key research areas such as comprehensive utilization of mineral resources, new lithium extraction technologies, and battery recycling [1][2]. - It aims to serve as a center for attracting high-level scientific research talent and facilitating the exchange of knowledge, technology, and experience [2]. Group 2: Achievements and Collaborations - The institute has already developed groundbreaking technologies, including the world's first preparation technology for lithium sulfide, a key material for solid-state electrolytes, which enhances battery energy density and safety [2]. - The third Innovation Season attracted 39 high-quality innovation projects from both domestic and international participants, promoting collaboration with several universities and research institutions [3]. - Tianqi Lithium has established deep cooperation with institutions like Beijing University of Science and Technology and Harbin Institute of Technology, focusing on the development of new materials and technologies for next-generation solid-state batteries [3]. Group 3: Future Plans - In 2024, the company plans to initiate over 20 company-level projects covering new product development and cutting-edge technology reserves [3]. - The company aims to publish 14 SCI/EI papers and achieve record highs in patent applications and grants [3].

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries reported a significant decline in revenue and a net loss for the year 2024, marking a stark contrast to the previous year's profitability, attributed to a prolonged downturn in the lithium market [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2024 was 13.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.75% - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 7.905 billion yuan, a shift from a profit of 7.297 billion yuan in 2023 [1][2]. Market Conditions - The global lithium prices remained low throughout 2024, severely impacting Tianqi Lithium's performance - The company incurred losses exceeding 5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with the full-year net loss reaching 7.905 billion yuan - Lithium carbonate prices experienced significant fluctuations, briefly rebounding to 110,000 yuan per ton after the Spring Festival, but subsequently declined due to reduced downstream demand and increased inventory [2]. Leadership Transition - Jiang Anqi, born in 1987 and holding a master's degree in business administration, officially took over as chairman of Tianqi Lithium in April 2024 - As the daughter of the founder, she has witnessed the company's ups and downs and has accumulated valuable management experience, which is now being tested in her first annual report [3]. Founder’s Confidence - Founder Jiang Weiping expressed strong trust in his daughter during the 2024 earnings briefing, emphasizing that the leadership transition was a well-considered decision and a form of inheritance - He highlighted Jiang Anqi's deep understanding of corporate culture, her experience during critical periods of the company's development, and her comprehensive knowledge of the company's governance and management systems [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [16]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 13.063 billion yuan, down 67.75% year-on-year, and a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan, a decrease of 208.32% year-on-year. The primary reason for this decline was the termination of the Quinan lithium hydroxide project, leading to a full impairment of assets worth 2.114 billion yuan [3][5]. - The production and sales of lithium concentrate showed a decrease in Q4 2024, with production at 392,000 tons (down 3.3% quarter-on-quarter) and sales at 312,000 tons (down 20.3% quarter-on-quarter) [4]. - The average selling price of lithium concentrate in Q4 2024 was 736 USD/ton, reflecting a 15.6% decrease quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit from 1.616 billion yuan in 2025 to 3.38 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 31, 17, and 15 [5]. Financial Data Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -68%. The net profit was -7.905 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -208% [6]. - The average cash production cost for lithium concentrate in 2024 was 326 AUD/ton, an increase of 14.59% year-on-year [5]. - The company’s inventory of lithium concentrate decreased by 26.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing inventory digestion [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in financial performance for 2024, with a revenue drop of 67.75% year-on-year and a net loss of 79.05 billion yuan, indicating severe challenges in the lithium market and operational setbacks [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 130.63 billion yuan in 2024, down 67.75% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -79.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 208.32% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was -79.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 210.40% year-on-year [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 55.54 billion yuan, down 75.52% year-on-year [1] Operational Challenges - The major reasons for the significant losses include falling lithium prices, mismatches in pricing mechanisms, substantial impairment provisions for the Australian lithium hydroxide project, and increased foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations [1] - The company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate in 2024, with chemical-grade lithium concentrate at 1.353 million tons and technical-grade at 57,000 tons [1] - Lithium compound and derivative production saw a year-on-year increase of 39.44%, reaching approximately 70,700 tons, while sales surged by 81.46% to about 102,800 tons [1] Resource and Production Capacity - The Greenbushes lithium mine currently has a lithium concentrate production capacity of 1.62 million tons per year, with the CGP3 project expected to produce its first batch of lithium concentrate by October 2025 [2] - The company operates five lithium chemical product production bases with a combined capacity of 91,600 tons per year and has plans for further expansion [2] - The Sichuan Suining Anju factory is expected to reach full production capacity by mid-2024, while the Australian Kwinana factory is undergoing a major technical upgrade [2] Investment and Market Position - The company holds a 22.16% stake in SQM, making it the second-largest shareholder [2] - SQM's lithium salt sales for 2024 are projected to be approximately 205,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.53%, with revenue equivalent to 32.315 billion yuan and a net loss of 2.885 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating despite the volatility in lithium prices and has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 10.806 billion, 13.340 billion, and 16.097 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -17.3%, 23.4%, and 20.7% [4] - The projected net profits for the same period are 2.385 billion, 2.511 billion, and 3.180 billion yuan, with growth rates of 130.2%, 5.3%, and 26.6% respectively [4] - The company is well-positioned with strong resource advantages and potential for capacity expansion, indicating promising long-term growth prospects [4]

刘杨还表示："在锂电行业，关键材料的突破往往影响着整个产业技术的高度。但这类材料的研发往往 面临周期长、投入大、产业化难等挑战。天齐锂业创新实验研究院的建立，在政府支持和学界协作下， 为突破这些瓶颈提供了重要平台，将有力推动锂电产业的高质量发展。" 据悉，天齐锂业已通过ISO56001国际创新管理体系认证与IMSPP创新管理能力分级评价，成为国内锂 行业首家同时取得两项国际权威评定的企业。同时，研究院将作为天齐锂业引智中心，汇聚高层次科研 人才，促进知识、技术和经验的交流与合作，搭建多元的创新共创平台，为区域经济高质量发展提供强 劲支撑。 本报讯 （记者舒娅疆）3月28日，天齐锂业股份有限公司（以下简称"天齐锂业"）创新实验研究院竣工 仪式暨第三届创新季成果发布会在四川眉山举行。 天齐锂业创新实验研究院的设立是公司研发创新征程上的重要里程碑，研究院位于成都科创生态岛眉山 分岛，总建筑面积逾4500平方米，将聚焦下一代高性能锂电池关键材料研究，同时开展矿产资源综合利 用、新型提锂技术及电池回收等领域的科研攻关，与天齐锂业成都总部形成高效协同的研发产业轴，为 技术创新与成果转化提供强力支撑。 据悉，近年来，四川省 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月28日 天齐锂业（002466.SZ）——年报点评 优于大市 锂价下行导致业绩阶段性亏损，聚焦增产扩能 公司发布年报：全年实现营收 130.63 亿元，同比-67.75%；实现归母净利 -79.05 亿元，同比-208.32%；实现扣非净利-79.23 亿元，同比-210.40%； 实现经营活动产生的现金流量净额 55.54 亿元，同比-75.52%。 公司 2024 年业绩大幅转亏，主要原因包括：1）锂价下行，同时受公司控股 子公司泰利森化学级锂精矿定价机制与公司锂化工产品销售定价机制存在 时间周期错配影响；2）SQM 由于税费影响，净利润同比大幅下降；3）公司 对澳大利亚二期氢氧化锂项目的资产全额计提了减值准备；4）澳元及人民 币兑美元的汇率变动导致 2024 年汇兑损失金额同比大幅增加。 核心产品产销量数据：2024 年泰利森共生产锂精矿 141.0 万吨，其中化学级 锂精矿 135.3 万吨，技术级锂精矿 5.7 万吨；锂产品方面，公司 2024 年锂 化合物及衍生品的产销量均实现同比大幅提升，其产量约 7.07 万吨，同比 +39.44%，销量约 10.28 万吨， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Cautious Recommendation" due to high raw material costs and expected continued declines in lithium prices [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 13.06 billion yuan, down 67.7% year-on-year, and a net loss of 7.90 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][5]. - Lithium salt sales increased significantly, but high-priced ore inventory negatively impacted performance. The company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate in 2024, with a sales volume of 1.03 million tons, reflecting an 81.5% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 was 90,000 yuan per ton, down 64.6% year-on-year, contributing to the company's financial struggles [2]. - Investment income from SQM dropped significantly, resulting in a loss of 840 million yuan, a decrease of 39.5 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to falling lithium prices and tax litigation in Chile [3]. - The company recorded an increase in asset impairment, totaling 2.11 billion yuan in 2024, with significant provisions for inventory and construction projects due to high costs and declining lithium prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 13.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -67.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -7.90 billion yuan, reflecting a -208.3% change [5][8]. - The company expects a gradual recovery in net profit from 2025 to 2027, projecting net profits of 1.05 billion yuan, 2.14 billion yuan, and 2.90 billion yuan respectively [4][5]. Production and Sales - The lithium salt production reached 71,000 tons in 2024, a 39.4% increase year-on-year, while sales volume increased by 81.5% to 103,000 tons [2]. - The company’s lithium concentrate inventory stood at 299,000 tons at the end of 2024, down 26.9% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Expenses - Financial expenses rose to 900 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to exchange losses from currency depreciation [4]. - The company recorded asset impairments of 2.11 billion yuan, with significant provisions for inventory and construction projects due to high costs [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance production capacity through ongoing projects, including the expansion of its chemical-grade lithium hydroxide plant, expected to commence operations in October 2025 [4]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 49, 24, and 18 respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [5][8].