Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in gross profit margin, impacting overall performance, but there is optimism regarding a recovery in steel prices, which is expected to improve net profit per ton [1][2][4]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 15.89 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 655 million, down 26.3% year-on-year [1]. - The report anticipates that the company will produce approximately 4.5 million tons of steel in 2024, with a stable production output and potential recovery in net profit per ton due to rising steel prices [4][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.56 billion, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 228 million, down 32.4% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10.2%, a decline of 1.05 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3's gross profit margin was 9.21%, down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s R&D expenses for Q3 2024 were 176 million, a decrease of 21.1% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in R&D spending per ton [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenue for 2024 is approximately 22.78 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.22%, with net profit expected to be 879 million, a significant drop of 25.45% [5][8]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including EBITDA and profit margins, with expected improvements in subsequent years [5][9]. Market Conditions - The report highlights that the monetary policy adjustments and fiscal stimulus are likely to positively impact infrastructure investment, which could benefit the company [4]. - Steel prices have shown signs of recovery, with hot-rolled coil prices stabilizing around 3,600 yuan per ton, up 7.65% since October compared to Q3 [2][4].

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） Q3 业绩承压，钢结构量价有望边际回暖 Q3 业绩继续承压，售价与需求有望边际好转。公司 2024Q1-3 实现营收 159.8 亿元，同降 6%，今年以来钢结构产量同比基本持平，但钢结构售 价跟随钢价下行，制约营收增长。Q1-3 实现扣非后归母净利润 3.6 亿元， 同降 49%，增速明显低于收入，主要系：1）钢材成本以移动加权平均法 计算，钢结构售价下行速度快于成本，毛利率下降；2）坏账计提有所增 多；3）研发等费用率上升。Q1-3 实现归母净利润 6.6 亿元，同降 26%， 降幅小于扣非后归母净利润，主因今年以来政府补助同比去年增多。分季 度看，Q1/Q2/Q3 营收分别 YoY-12%/-3%/-6%；扣非后归母净利润分别 YoY-39%/-52%/-52%；归母净利润分别 YoY+1%/-36%/-32%。单吨利 润方面，Q1-3 以产量计算的吨扣非后归母净利 110 元，YoY-107 元， Q1/Q2/Q3 分别为 95/125/105 元，YoY-61/-133/-116 ...

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称:鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-067 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码: 128134 | 债券简称:鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于预计触发鸿路转债转股价格向下修正条件的 经中国证券监督管理委员会"证监许可[2020]1983 号"文核准，安徽鸿路 钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2020 年 10 月 9 日公开发 行了 1,880 万张可转换公司转债，每张面值为人民币 100 元，发行总额 18.80 亿元，期限六年。 2、可转换公司债券上市情况 经深圳证券交易所"深证上[2020]971号"文同意，公司本次公开发行的可 转换公司债券于2020年11月2日在深圳证券交易所挂牌交易，债券简称"鸿路转 1、证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 2、债券代码：128134 债券简称：鸿路转债 3、转股价格：人民币 32.44 元/股 4、转股期限：2021 年 4 月 15 日至 2026 年 10 月 8 日 提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was ¥5,561,619,650.84, a decrease of 5.69% compared to the same period last year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was ¥227,712,843.68, down 32.37% year-on-year[2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥120,683,014.33, reflecting a decline of 51.64% compared to the previous year[2] - Total operating revenue for the third quarter was CNY 15,887,282,312.52, a decrease of 6.39% compared to CNY 16,968,243,147.69 in the same period last year[12] - Operating profit for the quarter was CNY 730,836,933.21, down 29.4% from CNY 1,035,176,011.06 year-over-year[13] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 655,499,132.70, a decline of 26.3% compared to CNY 889,287,216.32 in the previous year[13] - The total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 is CNY 655,499,132.70, down from CNY 889,287,216.32 in the previous period, representing a decrease of approximately 26.3%[14] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 is CNY 0.9536, compared to CNY 1.2888 in the same period last year, reflecting a decline of about 26.0%[14] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of the reporting period reached ¥25,536,204,505.33, an increase of 9.67% from the end of the previous year[2] - Total assets increased to CNY 25,536,204,505.33, up from CNY 23,284,289,109.59, reflecting a growth of 9.7%[11] - Total liabilities rose to CNY 16,042,836,960.11, compared to CNY 14,090,276,489.15, marking an increase of 13.9%[11] - The total non-current assets amounted to CNY 9,845,912,814.97, an increase from CNY 9,403,543,725.23, reflecting a growth of 4.7%[10] Cash Flow - The company's cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date was ¥327,199,914.89, down 56.52% year-on-year[6] - Cash inflow from operating activities for the current period is CNY 17,852,929,103.30, a decrease of 4.8% from CNY 18,761,044,609.40 in the previous year[15] - Net cash flow from operating activities is CNY 327,199,914.89, down 56.5% from CNY 752,453,833.32 in the prior year[15] - Cash outflow for investing activities is CNY 1,046,477,722.99, a decrease of 37.0% compared to CNY 1,658,815,515.32 in the previous period[16] - Net cash flow from financing activities is CNY 1,779,445,004.82, an increase of 49.2% from CNY 1,192,395,187.04 in the same period last year[16] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents is CNY 1,287,485,992.75, significantly up from CNY 466,420,175.07 in the previous year, indicating a growth of approximately 175.5%[16] Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 17,793[7] - The largest shareholder, Shang Xiaobo, holds 36.16% of shares, totaling 249,519,764 shares[7] - The top ten shareholders include various institutional investors, with the largest being Dong Yefang holding 10.81%[7] - The company has not reported any significant changes in shareholder relationships among the top ten shareholders[8] - The total number of priority shareholders is not applicable, indicating no priority shares issued[8] Investments and Expenses - Research and development expenses for the quarter were CNY 507,329,219.65, an increase of 18.9% from CNY 426,681,339.43 in the previous year[12] - The company has a long-term equity investment of approximately ¥9.67 million, down from ¥10.25 million, indicating a decrease of 5.7%[9] Other Financial Information - The company recognized government subsidies amounting to ¥132,085,989.54 during the reporting period, contributing to its financial performance[3] - The company's capital reserve increased to CNY 2,282,712,573.01 from CNY 2,281,427,927.93, showing a slight growth[11] - The weighted average return on net assets was 2.44%, a decrease of 1.38% compared to the same period last year[2] - The company has not undergone an audit for the Q3 report[17] - The company is set to implement new accounting standards starting in 2024, which may impact future financial reporting[17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Honglu Steel Structure (002541) for the first time [5] Core Views - Honglu Steel Structure is a leading player in the steel structure manufacturing industry, with a strong cost advantage and deep ties to core customers, leading to sustained growth in new orders [3] - The company has accelerated its intelligent transformation since 2022, focusing on upgrading cutting and welding processes, which has temporarily reduced production and increased depreciation/R&D expenses but is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the long term [3] - The steel structure industry faces short-term demand pressure due to industrial production and local fiscal challenges, but the long-term growth prospects for prefabricated buildings remain strong [3][9] Company Overview - Honglu Steel Structure is the largest steel structure manufacturer in China, with a leading production capacity and significant scale advantages [7] - The company has gone through three development phases: rapid expansion of engineering business (2002-2014), refocus on manufacturing (2015-2021), and intelligent transformation (2022-present) [7] - In 2023, the company's steel structure production reached 4.49 million tons, ranking first in the industry [7] Industry Dynamics - The penetration rate of prefabricated buildings in China increased from 4.9% in 2016 to 26.5% in 2022, with steel structure production growing at a CAGR of 12% from 2014 to 2023 [7] - The steel structure industry is highly fragmented, with the top 5 companies accounting for 8.2% of the market share in 2023, up from 4.9% in 2015 [7] - Honglu Steel Structure's market share increased from 3% in 2015 to 4% in 2023, reflecting its leading position in the industry [7] Competitive Advantages - The company's large-scale production capacity and strong bargaining power with suppliers allow it to purchase steel at lower prices than competitors [7] - Honglu Steel Structure has implemented a flat and refined management model, reducing per-ton expenses and depreciation costs [7] - The company's intelligent transformation, particularly in cutting and welding processes, is expected to further strengthen its cost advantages [7] Financial Projections - The report forecasts that the company's revenue will reach 22.8 billion, 25.2 billion, and 27.9 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3%, +10%, and +11% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.0 billion, 1.1 billion, and 1.3 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, +12%, and +11% [7] - The company's EPS is projected to be 1.48, 1.65, and 1.82 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a 3-year CAGR of +2% [7] Valuation and Target Price - The report values the company at 10 times the 2025 PE, with a target price of 16.48 yuan [11] - The current price of 14.13 yuan implies a 2025 PE of 8.6 times, indicating undervaluation [5][11]

订单整体平稳，期待智能制造兑现 ——鸿路钢构动态跟踪报告 核心观点 ⚫ 事件：鸿路钢构发布 2024 前三季度经营数据情况，公司累计新签销售合同额人民币 约 219.3 亿元，较 2023 年同期减少 4.3%；其中单 Q3 为 75.7 亿元。钢结构产品产 量约 325.1 万吨，较 2023 年同期增长 0.58%，其中单 Q3 产品产量约 114.5 万吨。 ⚫ 钢材价格下降影响合同额，实际接单量或有上升。24Q1-Q3 公司订单合同额同比下 滑 4%，或因钢价同比下滑所致，由于钢结构商业模式，成本下降会导致产品售价的 下调。根据万得数据，24Q1-Q3， 我国工字钢平均价格为 3966 元/吨，同比下降 7%，若剔除价格因素，我们认为公司接单量整体可能仍然实现增长。此外，在公司 进行产线智能化改造过程中，或许一定程度上也影响了生产效率，在这一背景下公 司钢结构产量仍然小幅增长。 ⚫ 智能制造提升核心竞争力，研发费用影响当期利润。公司已专门成立了智能制造研 发团队，有力推进了平面激光切割机、坡口激光切割机等设备应用。目前主要专注 于将每个环节的管控得到进一步的优化，炼好内功，增强公司的核心竞争力。未来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.85 CNY based on a 15X PE for 2024 [2][5]. Core Views - The company signed new sales contracts totaling approximately 21.93 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 4.3% compared to the same period in 2023, with Q3 contracts amounting to 7.57 billion CNY [1]. - The production of steel structure products reached approximately 3.251 million tons, a slight increase of 0.58% year-on-year, with Q3 production at about 1.145 million tons [1]. - The decline in steel prices has impacted contract amounts, but actual order volumes may have increased. The average price of I-beams in China fell by 7% year-on-year to 3966 CNY/ton in Q1-Q3 2024, suggesting that excluding price factors, order volumes could still show growth [1]. - The company is focusing on smart manufacturing to enhance its core competitiveness, with R&D expenses rising to 330 million CNY, a 62.5% increase year-on-year, impacting net profit margins [1]. Financial Summary - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 960 million, 1.038 billion, and 1.129 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.6 billion and 1.8 billion CNY for 2024-2025 [2][5]. - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 21.789 billion CNY, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with a projected revenue of 23.477 billion CNY in 2025 and 24.345 billion CNY in 2026 [4]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 is 10.7%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is projected to decline to 4.4% in 2024 [1][4].

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-066 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、获取补助的基本情况 近日，安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司全资子公司获得政府补助基本情况 见下表： | | | | | | 补 | | | 是否与 | 是否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序 | 获得补助 | 发放 | 项目 | 获得补助依据 | 助 | 补助金额 | 补助到账时 | 日常经 | 有可 | | 号 | 主体 | 主体 | 名称 | | 形 | （万元） | 间 | 营活动 | 持续 | | | | | | | 式 | | | 相关 | 性 | | 1 | 安徽鸿阳建 筑科技有限 | | | 《鸿路智能装配 基地项目投资合 | | 1032.52 | | | | | | 公司 | 安徽涡 | 产业 | 作协议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in new orders and production due to seasonal disruptions and ongoing smart transformation initiatives. However, the order intake is expected to show significant growth in the upcoming quarter [2]. - The average price of large orders has decreased, reflecting the overall decline in steel prices, but the company is positioned for long-term competitiveness through its technological advancements [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Orders and Production - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company signed new orders worth 21.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. In Q3 2024, new orders amounted to 7.6 billion yuan, also down 4% year-on-year [1]. - The steel structure product output for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 3.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. In Q3 2024, production was about 1.14 million tons, up 1% year-on-year but down 4% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Price and Order Volume Analysis - Excluding the impact of steel price fluctuations, the order intake in Q3 2024 is expected to show a double-digit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The average price of hot-rolled steel decreased by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [2]. - The proportion of large orders slightly decreased to about 20% in Q3 2024, with an average price of approximately 5,045 yuan per ton, down 13% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.24 billion yuan, 1.30 billion yuan, and 1.65 billion yuan, respectively. The current price corresponds to a dynamic P/E ratio of 8x for 2024 [2][11]. - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2026 are 24.5 billion yuan, 26.2 billion yuan, and 29.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.08%, 6.91%, and 12.00% respectively [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its operations despite a decline in new orders, with a focus on the potential turnaround in the steel structure sector [1]. - The report highlights the impact of government fiscal stimulus and monetary policy adjustments on infrastructure investment, which is expected to benefit the company [4]. - The company is undergoing a transformation towards automation and smart manufacturing, which is anticipated to enhance efficiency and potentially increase valuation in the long term [3]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - Cumulative new orders for Q1-3 2024 reached approximately 21.926 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.34%, with Q3 alone accounting for 7.57 billion, down 3.74% year-on-year [1]. - Steel structure production for Q1-3 2024 was about 3.2507 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.58%, with Q3 production at 1.1449 million tons, up 1.43% from Q3 2023 [1]. Pricing and Contracts - The average price per ton for new material orders in Q3 2024 ranged from 4,436 to 6,024 yuan, a decrease of 13.22% compared to the range of 4,909.98 to 7,143.76 yuan in Q3 2023 [2]. - The company secured 20 large contracts in Q3 2024, including a significant project in Indonesia, indicating ongoing demand in the manufacturing sector [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 23.539 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 22.855 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a decline of 2.91% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 912.44 million yuan, down 22.63% from 2023 [5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 9.1 billion, 10.5 billion, and 12.2 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5, 9.1, and 7.9 [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment driven by government policies, particularly in the fourth quarter [4].