来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 洽洽食品 (002557.SZ) 买入（维持评级） 买入（维持评级） 业绩简评 10 月 24 日公司发布 24 年三季报，24Q1-Q3 实现营收 47.58 亿元， 同比+6.24%；实现归母净利润 6.26 亿元，同比+23.79%；扣非净利 润 5.58 亿元，同比+31.44%。其中，24Q3 实现营收 18.59 亿元， 同比+3.72%；实现归母净利润 2.89 亿元，同比+21.4%；扣非净利 润 2.75 亿元，同比+22.25%。 经营分析 库存低位轻装上阵，Q3 具备边际改善。1）Q3 收入同比略有增长， 主要系瓜子小幅增长拉动，H1 公司已对蓝袋推广加量不加价活动， 迎合当下性价比消费趋势，预计蓝袋、打手瓜子表现较好。坚果因 中秋礼盒备货弱于预期，具备小幅拖累，预计 Q4 旺季在性价比礼 盒加持下具备明显改善。2）分渠道看，预计在零食量贩、会员店 等渠道表现较好；零食量贩一方面加速开店，另一方面合作 SKU 增 加。传统经销渠道则受益于网点下沉，售点数量不断扩张。 成本红利体现，毛利率显著优化。24Q3 毛利率/净利率分别为 33.11%/15.56%， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.758 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 626 million yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year [2] - The revenue growth in Q3 was under pressure due to weak recovery in gifting scenarios, with Q3 revenue at 1.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% [2] - The company benefits from cost advantages, leading to a significant improvement in overall net profit margin, which increased by 2.27 percentage points to 15.55% in Q3 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022 was 6.883 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15%. In 2023, revenue decreased to 6.806 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1%. Forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.441 billion yuan, 8.249 billion yuan, and 9.108 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 11%, and 10% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 976 million yuan in 2022, dropping to 803 million yuan in 2023, but is expected to rise to 1.006 billion yuan in 2024, 1.141 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.315 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 25%, 13%, and 15% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) were 1.93 yuan in 2022, decreasing to 1.58 yuan in 2023, and are projected to be 1.98 yuan in 2024, 2.25 yuan in 2025, and 2.59 yuan in 2026 [2] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its product channels and improving demand. It aims to strengthen its high-end sunflower seed brand "Kuaizhen" and enhance its nut product offerings [2] - The company is actively pursuing market expansion in third and fourth-tier cities and county markets, while also developing new channels such as snack wholesale, membership stores, and community group buying [2] - Internationally, the company is concentrating on deepening its presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam and Indonesia [2] Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates continued cost advantages, with a projected net profit of 1.006 billion yuan for 2024, 1.141 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.315 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 improved by 6.31 percentage points to 33.11% [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 34.20, compared to the last closing price of 31.11 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.758 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 626 million yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 558 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 31.44% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.72%, with a net profit of 289 million yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 275 million yuan, showing a growth of 22.24% [1]. - The company anticipates double-digit growth in its core product, sunflower seeds, while the nut segment has shown slower performance. The company has increased promotional efforts for certain mainstream products, leading to strong sales performance [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 33.1%, a significant increase of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a double-digit decline in raw material costs for sunflower seeds [1]. - The company has introduced a new stock incentive plan aimed at achieving a revenue target of 10 billion yuan over the next three years, with specific growth rate targets set for revenue and net profit [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 7.641 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.28%. The net profit is expected to be 966 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.33% [2]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is estimated at 1.91 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.33 [2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 10.758 billion yuan by 2024E, with total liabilities of 4.237 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate-A" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.758 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 626 million yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively preparing for the upcoming New Year goods festival, with plans to enhance product offerings and channel investments [1] - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting revenue to grow by 10.8%, 12.7%, and 13.7% respectively, and net profit to grow by 19.9%, 16.1%, and 17.3% respectively [1] Revenue Analysis - The company achieved a revenue of 18.59 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.72%, with net profit reaching 289 million yuan, up 21.40% year-on-year [1] - The growth in revenue is attributed to promotional activities, particularly in the sunflower seed segment, while the nut category showed weaker performance [1] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and product innovation, with significant progress in e-commerce channels [1] Profit Analysis - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 33.11%, an increase of 6.31 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased sales volume and reduced procurement costs [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 15.56%, up 2.26 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from economies of scale and improved profitability [1] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.540 billion yuan, 8.497 billion yuan, and 9.662 billion yuan respectively [3] - The projected net profits for the same years are 962 million yuan, 1.117 billion yuan, and 1.310 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 13.2 for 2024, decreasing to 9.7 by 2026 [3]

证券代码：002557 证券简称：洽洽食品 洽洽食品股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-009 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | 投资者关 | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | | 系活动类 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | 别 | □现场参观 | | | | ☑ 其他 （电话会议） | | | 参与单位 名称及人 员姓名 | 具体参与单位名称及人员姓名见附件。 | | | 时间 | 2024 年 10 月 25 日 | | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | | 上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 37.33 CNY from the previous 32.59 CNY [3][10]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue performance was slightly below expectations, while profit performance exceeded expectations due to declining costs. The upcoming peak season is expected to boost revenue [2][10]. - The company is projected to achieve EPS of 1.92 CNY, 2.47 CNY, and 2.81 CNY for 2024-2026, respectively, reflecting a valuation recovery in the snack food sector [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.859 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.72%, and a net profit of 289 million CNY, up 21.40% year-on-year [12]. - The Q3 gross margin improved by 6.3 percentage points to 33.1%, primarily due to lower raw material costs. The net profit margin increased by 2.3 percentage points to 15.6% [10]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue showed a weak improvement quarter-on-quarter but was slightly below expectations, mainly due to pressure on nut gift box sales during the gifting season [3][10]. - The sales and management expense ratios remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, respectively [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming peak season in Q4 2024, with a low comparative base from the previous year and strong incentives in place to drive revenue growth [3][10].

洽洽食品(002557) / 休闲食品 / 公司点评 / 2024.10.25 收入环比改善，利润弹性加速释放 投资评级:买入(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-10-24 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 31.11 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 5.06 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 10.76 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 5.07 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -24% -15% -6% 3% 12% 21% 洽洽食品 沪深300 分析师 吴文德 SAC 证书编号：S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 分析师 赵婕 SAC 证书编号：S0160523100002 zhaojie@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《Q2 淡季略承压，规模效应减弱》 2024-08-31 2. 《Q1 收入超预期，盈利水平改善 》 2024-05-02 3. 《基本符合预期，坚果渗透率持续提 升》 2024-03-07 证券研究报告 ❖ 事件：公司发布 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.758 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 626 million yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit of 289 million yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year [2] - The profit margin showed significant improvement due to scale effects and cost reduction efforts, with a gross margin of 33.1% in Q3 2024, up 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 75.45 billion yuan, 82.23 billion yuan, and 89.20 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.00183 billion yuan, 1.14565 billion yuan, and 1.28154 billion yuan respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 6.883 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.01%. In 2023, revenue decreased slightly to 6.806 billion yuan, a decline of 1.13%. The forecast for 2024 is 7.545 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.87% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 976.19 million yuan in 2022, decreasing to 802.74 million yuan in 2023, but expected to rise to 1.00183 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth of 24.80% [1][8] Profitability Metrics - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 1.58 yuan per share, with projections of 1.98 yuan, 2.26 yuan, and 2.53 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][8] - The P/E ratio based on the current price and latest diluted EPS is 20.96 for 2023, expected to decrease to 16.79 in 2024 and further to 14.68 in 2025 [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 31.11 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 15.77 billion yuan [4] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.89 [4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 洽洽食品（002557）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 营收环比改善，盈利弹性释放 目标价：37 元 当前价：31.11 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年三季报。24 年前三季度实现营收 47.58 亿元，同比+6.24%； 归母净利润 6.26 亿元，同比+23.79%；扣非归母净利润 5.58 亿元，同比+31.44%。 单 Q3 实现营收 18.59 亿元，同比+3.72%；归母净利润 2.89 亿元，同比+21.4%； 扣非归母净利 2.75 亿元，同比+22.24%。 评论： Q3 国葵补库正增，礼赠平淡拖累坚果表现。经历前期集中库存去化，Q3 公司 轻装上阵，7-8 月实现较好增长，但至 9 月因双节礼赠预期平淡、经销商进货 意愿较弱，而公司也更趋理性不强制压货，拖累整体 Q3 增速表现。分品类看， 预计礼赠占比更高的坚果业务三季度有所下滑，而国葵业务带动整体营收实现 正增。 成本回落兑现+费投控制得当，24Q3 盈利弹性释放。24Q3 公司毛利率为 33.11%，同比+6.31pcts，主要为国葵采购成本下行增厚；销售/管理费用率为 7.86%/3.94%，同比- ...

业绩环比显著改善,积极展望春节旺季 2024 年第三季度业绩点评 核心观点 ● ● ● ● ● ● 公司点评 · 食品饮料行业 2024 年 10月 24 日 事件:10月24日,公司发布公告,2024年前三季度实现营收 47.6亿元,同 比+6.2%;归母净利润 6.3 亿元,同比+23.8%;扣非归母净利润 5.6 亿元,同 比+31.4%。其中 24Q3 营收 18.6亿元,同比+3.7%;归母净利润 2.9亿元, 同比+21.4%;扣非归母净利润 2.7 亿元,同比+22.2%。 多重调整初见成效,24Q3收入回归正增。虽然终端需求仍较为平淡,但是 公司 24Q3 收入回归正增长,主要得益于二季度主动控货进行库存去化后,三 季度得以轻装上阵,通过采取系列举措积极应对行业挑战。1）产品端,公司 蓝袋系列产品开展加量不加价促销,更好地契合了当前的性价比消费机遇与竞 争环境;2)渠道端,公司在零食量贩系统加强散装产品铺货,此外丰富小包 装 SKU,助力渠道加速下沉;3)海外市场,通过新品投放与渠道渗透实现品 牌传播;4)采用赛马择优、品类合伙等形式,发力打造第三曲线。 原材料成本红利延续,盈利能力持续改善。 ...