市场数据(2024-12-11) 收盘价(元) 27.80 一年内最高/最低(元) 27.89/15.26 沪深 300 指数 3,988.83 市净率(倍) 6.67 流通市值(亿元) 199.16 基础数据(2024-09-30) 每股净资产(元) 4.17 每股经营现金流(元) 0.51 毛利率(%) 70.11 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) 12.62 资产负债率(%) 42.54 总股本/流通股(万股) 104,936.90/71,639.23 B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/0.00 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 食品饮料 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 销售增长转负，广告等销售投入大 ——百润股份(002568)2024 年三季报点评 证券研究报告-季报点评 谨慎增持(下调) 发布日期：2024 年 12 月 12 日 投资要点： ⚫ 高基数之上销售增长回落。2024 年前三季度，公司实现营收 23.86 亿元，同比增长-2.88%，较上年同期的 49.35%回落；其中，第三季 度营收 7.58 亿元，同比增长-5 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 前瞻布局威士忌，含苞待放在蛇年 2024 年 12 月 09 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2593 | 3264 | 3197 | 3654 | 4124 | | 同比（ % ） | (0.04) | 25.85 | (2.06) | 14.31 | 12.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 521.28 | 809.42 | 769.09 | 882.68 | 1,006.94 | | 同比（ % ） | (21.74) | 55.28 | (4.98) | 14.77 | 14.08 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0. ...

证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2024-073 债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 一、解除担保情况 （一）担保情况概述 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）与招商银行股份 有限公司上海分行（以下简称"招行上海分行"）签订了《最高额不可撤销担保 书》（编号：5402230801），为公司之全资子公司上海巴克斯酒业营销有限公司 （以下简称"巴克斯营销"）承担最高限额为 2.5 亿元的连带保证责任；公司与 招行上海分行签订了《最高额不可撤销担保书》（编号：5402231001），为公司 之全资子公司上海锐澳商务咨询有限公司（以下简称"锐澳商务"）承担最高限 额为 2 亿元的连带保证责任。详见 2023 年 9 月 9 日、2023 年 11 月 16 日登载于 《证券时报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》《中国证券报》及巨潮 资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《百润股份：关于为全资子公司提供担保额度的 进展公告》（公告编号：2023-054、2023-069）。 （二）解除担保情况 1．近日，公司接到锐澳商务、招行上海分行通知，锐澳商务已足额偿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The launch of the "Shengzhou" single malt whisky and "Bailede" blended whisky marks a significant innovation, with both products priced at CNY 399 and limited to 20,000 bottles [2][3]. - The dual-brand strategy establishes a clear business framework, allowing for differentiation between single malt and blended whiskies, which can reduce risk and trial costs [2]. - The innovative product features, such as the use of eight different barrel types in the "Shengzhou" single malt whisky, highlight the company's competitive edge and potential for market expansion [3]. - The pricing strategy targets the mass market, appealing to younger consumers, and is positioned as a value-for-money option compared to competitors [3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2024 is CNY 3,218.40 million, reflecting a slight decline of 1.39% from the previous year, with expected growth rates of 12.53% and 15.30% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [12]. - The estimated diluted EPS for 2024 is CNY 0.71, with projections of CNY 0.86 and CNY 1.00 for 2025 and 2026 [12]. - The P/E ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 34, 28, and 24, respectively, indicating a potential increase in valuation as new products are launched [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has launched two new whiskey products, "Lai Zhou Single Malt Whiskey" and "Bailide Blended Whiskey," both priced at CNY 399, marking a significant step in its whiskey strategy [2][3] - The company aims to create a unique Chinese whiskey experience, blending local flavors and culture, and plans to expand its product offerings to meet diverse consumer needs [3][4] - The company has established a strong production capacity in the whiskey sector, with a distillery capable of producing 400,000 barrels, and is focusing on local operations and innovative marketing strategies [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company expects total revenue to be CNY 32.4 billion in 2024, with a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, followed by growth of 14% and 13% in the subsequent years [5] - The projected net profit for 2024 is CNY 7.8 billion, reflecting a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with anticipated growth of 15% and 14% in the following years [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 32, 28, and 25 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.386 billion yuan for Q1-3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88%, and a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 758 million yuan, down 5.95% year-on-year, with a net profit of 172 million yuan, down 24.01%, indicating performance below expectations [1]. - The pre-mixed beverage segment generated 2.102 billion yuan in revenue for Q1-3 2024, a decline of 3.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 409 million yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year. Q3 revenue for pre-mixed beverages fell by 7% year-on-year, but the company is maintaining healthy operations to prepare for future growth [1]. - The lower-than-expected profits are attributed to increased marketing and promotional expenditures, with Q3 net profit margin down by 5.3 percentage points. Gross margin increased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while sales and management expense ratios rose by 3.1 and 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The company plans to continue its 358-degree matrix strategy, exploring new flavors and promoting refreshing new products comprehensively. A new whiskey product is set to launch in November, with attention on subsequent distribution progress [1]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are adjusted to -1%, 12%, and 15%, with projected revenues of 3.22 billion, 3.60 billion, and 4.16 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit growth rates are projected at -9%, 11%, and 15%, with expected net profits of 740 million, 820 million, and 950 million yuan, respectively. Corresponding P/E ratios are 38X, 35X, and 30X [2][6]. - The pre-mixed beverage segment is expected to stabilize, while the whiskey business shows promising prospects [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was approximately 2.593 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 3.220 billion yuan for 2024. The net profit for 2022 was 521 million yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 739 million yuan for 2024 [3][6]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 54.41 in 2022 to 30.01 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation over time [3][8]. Key Financial Ratios - The net profit margin is projected to be 20.10% in 2022, increasing to 22.74% by 2026. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 13.85% in 2022 to 18.74% in 2026 [8]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 42.54%, indicating a moderate level of debt relative to its assets [4]. Market Position - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the non-baijiu segment, with a focus on pre-mixed beverages and whiskey products [4]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 28.36 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 19.36 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential price increase of over 20% relative to the market index in the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 570 million yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 760 million yuan, a decline of 6% year-on-year, and net profit was 170 million yuan, down 24% year-on-year [2][3]. - The cocktail business generated 2.1 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters, a decrease of 3.1%, with a net profit of 400 million yuan. In Q3 2024, revenue was 670 million yuan, down 6.6% [2][3]. - The company is preparing to launch new whiskey products in 2025, which is expected to enhance its product portfolio and market presence [2][3]. Financial Performance - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 740 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 930 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.71 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.89 yuan, leading to dynamic PE ratios of 36x, 31x, and 28x [1][3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 70.1%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 23.9%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][6]. - The company aims to enhance its cocktail product matrix and expand its market share in the whiskey segment, leveraging its distillation technology [3][6]. Business Segments - The pre-mixed cocktail segment is expected to see a sales growth rate of -6% in 2024, followed by 8% and 6% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a gross margin forecasted to improve gradually [6][7]. - The flavor and fragrance business is projected to grow at 4% in 2024, with a gross margin of 69.2%, and is recognized as a leader in the domestic market [6][7].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 11 月 01 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 23.21 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 27.89/15.00 | | 市净率 | 5.6 | | 息率（分红/股价） | | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 16,627 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,272.01/10,455.50 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | | | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.17 | | 资产负债率 % | 42.54 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,049/716 | | 流通 B 股 /H 股（百万） | -/- | 证券 ...

公司经 2024 年 4 月 24 日第五届董事会第十五次会议及 2024 年 5 月 28 日 2023 年度股东大会审议通过了《关于公司未来十二个月对外担保额度的议案》， 拟对子公司以及子公司之间预计提供总计不超过 20 亿元人民币的担保额度，担 保额度的有效期为股东大会审议通过之日起十二个月内；其中预计为全资子公司 锐澳营销银行融资业务提供担保，担保金额不超过人民币 8 亿元。 为提高工作效率，保证业务办理手续的及时性，该议案经股东大会审议通过 后，董事会授权董事长刘晓东先生或其授权人在严格遵守国家法律、行政法规、 部门规章、规范性文件以及深圳证券交易所规定的前提下，全权代表公司审核并 签署上述担保额度内的相关合同及文件。 债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2024-072 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 关于为全资子公司提供担保额度的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保事项概述 （一）担保情况概述 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）之全资子 ...

股票交易异常波动公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、股票交易异常波动的情况介绍 百润股份（002568）股票于 2024 年 11 月 1 日、11 月 4 日连续二个交易日 收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到 20%以上，根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》 的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动。 二、公司关注并核实的情况 债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2024-071 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 - 1 - 经本公司自查、征询本公司控股股东和实际控制人，现就有关情况说明如下： 1．公司于 2024 年 10 月 30 日召开第六届董事会第二次会议，审议通过了 《关于公司<2024 年第三季度报告>的议案》《关于使用部分闲置募集资金进行现 金管理的议案》《关于公司内部业务架构调整的议案》。具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 10 月 31 日登载于《证券时报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》《中国证券报》和 巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）的相关公告。 2．经核查，公司 ...