Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor sector experienced a significant surge, with the liquor ETF rising by 10.08% and the China Securities Liquor Index increasing by 9.79% on January 29, driven by macroeconomic expectations and seasonal factors related to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - 20 liquor companies saw stock price increases, with 18 reaching the daily limit, including notable gains from Kweichow Moutai (8.61% increase) and others like Jinzhongzi Liquor and Huangtai Liquor, both around 10% [1][2]. - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has been rising, surpassing 1600 yuan, indicating a market recovery signal as the product remains sold out on official platforms [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Experts attribute the price increase to a combination of Moutai's proactive price control and seasonal demand, suggesting that the liquor sector is a target for capital investment due to its cyclical nature [4]. - The overall industry is under pressure, with several companies forecasting significant declines in net profit, indicating a challenging competitive landscape and increased inventory issues [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the proactive inventory adjustments by liquor manufacturers and the stabilization of high-end liquor prices could lead to a healthier market development [5]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost demand, with the liquor sector seen as a value opportunity for investors, despite the need for cautious optimism regarding long-term trends [5].

证券代码：002646 证券简称：天佑德酒 公告编号：2026-002 青海互助天佑德青稞酒股份有限公司 2025 年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日。 2、业绩预告情况：预计净利润为正值且属于同向下降 50%以上情形 单位：万元 | 项 | 目 | | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股东的净 | | | 421.35 | ～ | 632.02 | 4,213.53 | | 利润 | | 比上年同期下降 | 85.00% | ～ | 90.00% | | | 扣除非经常性损益后的净 | | | 183.39 | ～ | 275.08 | 3,816.89 | | 利润 | | 比上年同期下降 | 92.79% | ～ | 95.20% | | | 基本每股收益（元/股） | | | 0.0088 | ～ | 0.0132 ...

Group 1 - Tianyoude liquor experienced a 5.16% increase, reaching a price of 9.38 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 209 million yuan and a turnover rate of 4.79%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 4.494 billion yuan [1] - Qinghai Huzhu Tianyoude Qincai Liquor Co., Ltd. was established on January 27, 2005, and listed on December 22, 2011. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of barley liquor, with main products including Huzhu, Tianyoude, Badagongfang, Yongqing, and others [1] - The main business revenue composition includes 84.62% from barley liquor, with 44.44% from barley liquor priced at 100 yuan and above, 40.19% from barley liquor priced below 100 yuan, and 13.04% from other brand liquors [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Tianyoude liquor, a fund under Penghua Fund ranks first. The liquor ETF (512690) increased its holdings by 3.1361 million shares in the third quarter, holding a total of 9.2784 million shares, which accounts for 1.95% of the circulating shares [2] - The liquor ETF (512690) was established on April 4, 2019, with a current scale of 18.877 billion yuan. It has experienced a loss of 3.82% this year, ranking 5464 out of 5551 in its category, and a loss of 9.69% over the past year, ranking 4281 out of 4285 [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of the liquor ETF (512690) is Zhang Yuxiang, who has a cumulative tenure of 10 years and 138 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 34.329 billion yuan, with the best fund return during his tenure being 125.39% and the worst being -67.82% [3]

Group 1 - The core logic behind the current market speculation on the liquor sector is the positive expectations for sales during the upcoming Spring Festival and the highlighted value of industry bottom configurations [2][4] - As the Spring Festival approaches, traditional consumption scenarios for liquor are recovering, and institutional research reports are optimistic about the industry's recovery trend, leading to capital inflows into undervalued liquor stocks [2][4] - Various local regions have introduced supportive policies, reinforcing market confidence in the long-term development of the liquor industry [2][4] Group 2 - Some Moutai distributors have sold out their quotas for January and February, driven by pre-holiday stocking and Moutai's volume control strategy, which may lead to price increases [3] - The price of Moutai has seen a rise, with the original box price increasing by 20 yuan to 1610 yuan per bottle, while the price for loose bottles remains around 1570 yuan [3] - Citic Securities reports that the liquor industry is set to enter a marketing phase for the Spring Festival, focusing on market cultivation and consumer education to promote sales [4] Group 3 - High-end liquor brands are expected to benefit from the recovery of consumption scenarios such as business banquets and gift-giving during the Spring Festival, leading to a rebound in wholesale prices and sales [5] - Regional liquor companies are leveraging local market advantages and adjusting channel strategies to break through in a competitive environment, with some launching affordable products to meet consumer demand [5] - Service providers in liquor production areas are likely to see growth opportunities as regions promote digital transformation and cultural integration, enhancing production efficiency and brand value [5]

| 名称 | | 现价 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营导演业 | 14.48 | 10.03% | 1.32 | | 泸州老窖 | 120.97 | 7.11% | 8.03 | | 酒鬼酒 | 55.33 | 7.06% | 3.65 | | 古井贡酒 | 133.00 | 5.57% | 7.02 | | 実得漫』 | 57.12 | 5.62% | 3.04 | | 水井坊 | 40.28 | 5.53% | 2.11 | | 贵州茅台 | 1386.98 | 4.78% | 63.29 | | 金徽酒 | 20.45 | 4.44% | 0.87 | | 山西汾酒 | 168.07 | 4.20% | 6.78 | | 天佑德酒 | 9.21 | 3.25% | 0.29 | | 顺鑫农业 | 14.89 | 2.97% | 0.43 | | 今世缘 | 33.18 | 2.98% | 0.96 | | 五粮液 | 103.59 | 2.87% | 2.89 | 消息面上，飞天茅台价格节前连续上涨，整箱批价突破1600元。第三方报价平台显示，1月29日 ...

1月29日，白酒股午后持续拉升，截至发稿，白酒指数涨超4%，个股全线飘红。 消息面上， 飞天茅台价格节前连续上涨，整箱批价突破1600元。 第三方报价平台显示，1月29日， 2026年原箱茅台价格单瓶价格上涨20元为1610元/瓶，回升到1600元以上，散瓶的价格保持在1570 元/瓶，前几日茅台的批价还稳定在1550元/瓶左右。记者在"i茅台"平台看到，1499元的普茅连续第 29天在多次秒空后显示售罄。 编辑丨瑜见 | 名称 | | 现价 涨跌幅 ▼ | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 量台酒业 | 14.48 | 10.03% | 1.32 | | 泸州老窖 | 120.97 | 7.11% | 8.03 | | 酒鬼酒 | 55.33 | 7.06% | 3.65 | | 古井贡酒 | 133.00 | 5.57% | 7.02 | | 舍得酒』 | 57.12 | 5.62% | 3.04 | | 水井坊 | 40.28 | 5.53% | 2.11 | | 贵州茅台 | 1386.98 | 4.78% | 63.29 | | 金徽酒 | 20.45 | 4.44% ...

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.79% on January 28, with *ST Rock leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Huangtai Liquor (000995) saw a closing price of 13.16, with an increase of 4.86% and a trading volume of 155,300 shares, totaling 203 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Shede Liquor (600702) at 54.08, up 2.40% [1] - Gujing Gongjiu (000596) at 125.98, up 2.17% [1] - Water Well (600779) at 38.17, up 1.49% [1] - Jinzongzi Liquor (661009) at 9.36, up 1.30% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 1.238 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.356 billion yuan [2] - The overall net outflow from retail investors was 118 million yuan [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) had a net inflow of 10.7 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 66.86 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) experienced a net inflow of 74.64 million yuan from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 180 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Huangtai Liquor (000995) had a net inflow of 26.34 million yuan from institutional investors, but also saw a net outflow of 23.80 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a rise in liquor stocks, with notable increases in several companies, indicating positive market sentiment in the sector [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Huangtai Liquor Industry (000995) increased by 6.69%, with a total market capitalization of 2.375 billion [2] - Gujing Gongjiu (000596) rose by 2.90%, with a market cap of 67.1 billion, but has a year-to-date decline of 4.31% [2] - Shede Liquor (600702) saw a 2.73% increase, with a market cap of 18.1 billion and a year-to-date decline of 3.26% [2] - Jinzongzi Liquor (600199) increased by 2.38%, with a market cap of 6.223 billion and a year-to-date decline of 2.27% [2] - Shuijingfang (600779) rose by 2.18%, with a market cap of 18.7 billion and a year-to-date change of -0.08% [2] - Jiugui Liquor (000799) increased by 1.68%, with a market cap of 16.9 billion and a year-to-date decline of 4.53% [2] - Shunxin Agriculture (000860) rose by 1.60%, with a market cap of 10.9 billion and no change year-to-date [2] - Tianyoude Liquor (002646) increased by 1.47%, with a market cap of 4.298 billion and a year-to-date increase of 3.70% [2] - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) saw a 1.32% increase, with a market cap of 167.6 billion and a year-to-date decline of 2.05% [2] - Laobaigan Liquor (600559) increased by 1.30%, with a market cap of 1.43 billion and a year-to-date decline of 2.68% [2] Group 2: Market Signals - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for these stocks [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a mixed trend in retail prices, with the average price of the top ten liquor products showing a decline, indicating potential market volatility and shifts in consumer demand [1][5]. Price Trends - As of January 28, the total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8866 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low in the past five days [1]. - The market shows four price increases and six decreases today, with premium Moutai leading the increase by 6 yuan per bottle, while Qinghua Lang saw a significant drop of 17 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of the iMoutai platform selling Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and premium Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle has begun to influence market prices, reflecting a magnetic effect on retail prices [5]. - The A-share liquor sector has seen a decline, with the China Securities White Liquor Index dropping to 8293.16 points, the lowest since September 19, 2024, and the sector has experienced a continuous six-year decline [5]. Stock Performance - Within the liquor sector, 20 constituent stocks have averaged a decline of nearly 8.5% over the past 11 trading days, with a median drop of 6.6% [5]. - Six stocks have seen declines exceeding 10%, representing nearly 30% of the sector's total stocks, including Shanxi Fenjiu and Yanghe Brewery [5]. Financing Activity - Despite the market downturn, there is a trend of increased investment from financing clients, with Guizhou Moutai seeing a net purchase of 3.166 billion yuan over the last ten trading days, reaching a new high in financing balance [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "Wine Price Reference" by Sina Finance has launched, providing real-time data on the retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands, indicating a mixed market trend with a slight overall decline in prices [1][5]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products in China on January 28 was 8,866 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low in the past five days [1][7]. - The market showed four price increases and six decreases: - Increases: Premium Moutai up 6 yuan/bottle, Crystal Jian Nan Chun up 3 yuan/bottle, Guojiao 1573 and Dream Blue M6+ each up 2 yuan/bottle [1][7]. - Decreases: Qinghua Lang down 17 yuan/bottle, Feitian Moutai down 9 yuan/bottle, Xijiu Junpin down 3 yuan/bottle, and Gu Qingong Gu 20 down 2 yuan/bottle [1][7]. Market Analysis - The A-share liquor sector has seen a decline, with the China Securities Liquor Index dropping to 8,293.16 points, the lowest since September 19, 2024, and marking six consecutive years of annual declines [5][9]. - Among 20 stocks in the liquor sector, the average decline over the past 11 trading days was approximately 8.5%, with a median decline of 6.6% [5][9]. - Six stocks experienced declines of over 10%, accounting for nearly 30% of the sector, including Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe Brewery, and Gujing Gongjiu [5][9]. Financing Activity - Despite the market downturn, there has been an increase in financing activity, with Guizhou Moutai seeing a net purchase of 3.166 billion yuan over the past ten trading days, reaching a financing balance not seen in a year and a half [5][9]. - Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye also saw net increases of 250 million yuan and 120 million yuan, respectively [5][9].