事件：公司2024 年全年实现营业收入168.21 亿元，同比+14.84%，归母净利润10.53亿元，同比 +7.75%；其中2024Q4 实现营业收入41.31 亿元，同比+6.15%，归母净利润2.68 亿元，同比+11.07%。公 司2025 年Q1 全年实现营业收入38.34 亿元，同比+10.36%，归母净利润2.47 亿元，同比+43.02%。24 年 公司向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 4.50元（含税），分红比例42.02%。 风险提示：新品销售不及预期；自有品牌销售不及预期；外销订单不及预期；原材料价格上涨及运费上 涨导致利润下滑。 海外需求旺盛带动外销增长，内销增长有所承压分地区看， 24A 公司内外销收入同比-4.42%/+21.68% ， 其中24Q4 内外销同比-11.3%/+14.1%。2024 年海外小家电总体需求比较旺盛，外销增速较好；内销 受国内消费市场景气度低迷等因素影响表现较弱。25Q1 内外销收入同比-4.94%/+15.77% ，外销延续较 好的增长趋势，内销仍有所承压。针对美国对华加征关税政策，近年来公司也在印度尼西亚进行了产能 布局，设立了两个制造基地，以应 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 16.82 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.84%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.75% year-over-year [1][3] - The company has maintained a high growth rate in exports, while the decline in domestic sales has narrowed [2] - The profit margin improved in Q1 2025, with a gross profit margin of 22.42%, an increase of 0.50 percentage points year-over-year [2] Revenue Summary - For 2024, the total revenue was 16.82 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 14.84% [1] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 18.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.35% [3] - The revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 are 19.24 billion yuan and 20.51 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 6.57% and 6.58% [3] Profit Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.05 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 7.75% [1] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.18 billion yuan, 1.26 billion yuan, and 1.39 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 12.06%, 6.40%, and 10.74% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.45 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.95, 8.41, and 7.59 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3][9] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 20.91%, with a slight decrease of 1.82 percentage points year-over-year [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 6.26%, down 0.41 percentage points year-over-year [2] - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of sales for Q1 2025 were 3.90% for sales, 5.80% for management, and 3.36% for R&D [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth in exports, with Q1 2025 external sales reaching 2.98 billion (up 16% year-on-year) [5] - Domestic sales in Q1 2025 were 860 million (down 5% year-on-year), showing a narrowing decline compared to Q4 [5] - The company plans to increase its investment in its Indonesian subsidiary by 50 million to strengthen its overseas supply chain capabilities [5] - The company has successfully expanded its product categories, with kitchen appliances and home appliances showing year-on-year revenue growth of 16% and 17% respectively in 2024 [5] - The company expects to benefit from domestic subsidies and a recovery in brand positioning, particularly in its self-owned brands [8] Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 3.834 billion (up 10.4% year-on-year), with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 247 million (up 43.0% year-on-year) [6] - For the full year 2024, total revenue was 16.821 billion (up 14.8% year-on-year), with a net profit of 1.053 billion (up 7.7% year-on-year) [6] - The company reported a cash dividend of 4.5 per 10 shares (including tax), resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 42% [6] Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, the gross margin increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year and 3.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating an improvement in profitability [7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 20.9%, reflecting a decrease due to increased export ratios and intensified domestic competition [7] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 19 billion, 20.9 billion, and 22.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.8%, 10.2%, and 9.1% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.178 billion, 1.309 billion, and 1.435 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 11.9%, 11.2%, and 9.6% respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.75% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing strong overseas demand, leading to significant growth in exports, while domestic sales are under pressure due to a sluggish consumer market [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.63%, down 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.13 billion yuan, a 6.15% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, up 11.07% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a 10.36% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 247 million yuan, a significant increase of 43.02% year-on-year [1]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's domestic sales decreased by 4.42% while international sales increased by 21.68%. In Q4 2024, domestic sales fell by 11.3% and international sales grew by 14.1% [2]. - For Q1 2025, domestic sales declined by 4.94% while international sales rose by 15.77%, indicating a continued trend of strong export growth despite domestic challenges [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, down from the previous year, while the net margin was 6.63% [3]. - In Q4 2024, the gross margin was 19.38%, a decline of 4.01 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin slightly improved to 7.01% [3]. Expense Management - The company maintained good control over its expense ratios in 2024, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 3.6%, 4.94%, 3.94%, and -0.52% respectively [3]. - For Q1 2025, the expense ratios were 3.9% for sales, 5.8% for management, and 3.36% for R&D, indicating a slight increase in management expenses [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see gradual recovery in domestic sales due to a low base, while external orders are anticipated to continue driving overall revenue growth [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.21 billion yuan, 1.37 billion yuan, and 1.51 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.74x, 7.68x, and 6.99x [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 17.10 CNY for the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in overseas sales, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8% in Q1, driven by robust demand for small household appliances and increased inventory needs due to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies [2]. - Domestic sales have shown marginal improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9% in Q1, compared to a decline of 11.2% in Q4 2024, supported by government subsidies for replacing old appliances [2]. - The company's profitability has improved, with a net profit margin of 6.4% in Q1, up by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to better investment returns and a favorable exchange rate [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.82 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, up by 7.7% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.83 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 0.25 billion CNY, up by 43.0% [1][3]. - The company's gross profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management and product mix [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing government subsidies for small household appliances, which will likely enhance domestic sales [4]. - The establishment of a manufacturing base in Indonesia is anticipated to mitigate trade policy risks and support stable growth in overseas sales [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 1.43 CNY, 1.62 CNY, and 1.88 CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xinbao Co., Ltd. is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company continues to experience good external sales performance while the decline in domestic sales is narrowing. The overall revenue growth remains stable, with a projected net profit increase for 2025-2027 [5][6] - The company reported a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.84%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.75% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is expected to benefit from category expansion, which is likely to drive steady growth in external sales, while improvements in domestic sales will enhance profitability [5][6] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025E Revenue: 18.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1% - 2025E Net Profit: 1.20 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [8][10] - Key Financial Ratios: - Gross Margin: 21.4% in 2025E - Net Margin: 6.5% in 2025E - Return on Equity (ROE): 13.3% in 2025E [8][11] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, domestic sales revenue was 860 million yuan, down 5% year-on-year, while external sales revenue was 2.97 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year. The trend shows a recovery in external sales and a narrowing decline in domestic sales [6][7] Market Outlook - The company is actively cooperating with downstream clients to shift production capacity, which is expected to support steady growth in external sales as overseas production ramps up [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.47 [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 16.82 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.05 billion, up 7.75% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, total revenue grew by 10.36% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 43.02% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is a leader in small appliance exports, benefiting from strong demand in Q1 2025, although it may face challenges in Q2 due to increased tariffs from the US [1][3] - The company has initiated a share buyback and declared a dividend of RMB 0.45 per share, enhancing shareholder returns [1] Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - The company's domestic sales faced significant pressure in 2024, with a revenue decline of 4.5% year-on-year, and continued to decline by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025. The main brands, Mofei and Dongling, are less sensitive to the new subsidy policies, leading to a slower recovery compared to the industry [2] Export Business - The export revenue growth for the company was strong in 2024 and Q1 2025, with year-on-year increases of 29.7%, 25.1%, 20.3%, and 14.1% for each quarter of 2024. However, the growth rate is expected to be pressured in Q2 2025 due to rising tariffs imposed by the US [3][5] Profitability and Costs - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher proportion of low-margin exports. In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 22.42%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The company also optimized its expense ratios, with a decrease in the period expense ratio by 1.08 percentage points in 2024 [4] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to RMB 1.43, 1.57, and 1.75, reflecting a downward revision of 5% and 7% for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The target price is adjusted to RMB 16.47, corresponding to a 2025 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.5x [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced strong growth in overseas sales, with a 21.7% increase in foreign revenue for 2024, while domestic sales faced pressure with a decline of 4.4% [2] - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 20.9%, primarily due to intensified market competition and changes in sales structure [3] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 250 million yuan, a significant increase of 43.0% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [4] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's revenue from kitchen appliances, home appliances, and other products was 11.51 billion yuan, 2.92 billion yuan, and 2.08 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%, 17.4%, and 7.4% [2] - For Q1 2025, the company’s revenue from foreign and domestic markets showed a year-on-year increase of 15.8% and a decline of 4.9% respectively [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved by 0.5 percentage points to 22.4%, attributed to cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures [4] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 increased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.9% [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.16 billion yuan, 1.27 billion yuan, and 1.38 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 9.4%, and 8.5% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 16.47 [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 16.82 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.84%, and a net profit of RMB 1.05 billion, up 7.75% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, total revenue grew by 10.36% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 43.02% year-on-year. The performance for 2024 met expectations [1][2] - The company is a leader in small appliance exports, benefiting from strong demand in Q1 2025, although potential challenges from increased tariffs in the U.S. may impact Q2 performance. The company has significant experience in product planning, industrial design, and rapid production, indicating resilience in long-term export sales [1][3] - The domestic sales faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 4.5% in 2024 and a further decline of 4.9% in Q1 2025. The main brands are less sensitive to the new replacement subsidy policies, leading to a slower recovery compared to the industry [2] - The company's export growth was strong in 2024, with quarterly growth rates of 29.7%, 25.1%, 20.3%, and 14.1% respectively. However, the growth rate is expected to face pressure in Q2 2025 due to increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. [3][5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of low-margin exports. The gross margin improved to 22.42% in Q1 2025 [4] - The company has initiated a share buyback and declared a dividend of RMB 0.45 per share, enhancing shareholder returns [1] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 17.69 billion, RMB 18.89 billion, and RMB 20.15 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 5.16%, 6.78%, and 6.70% [10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.43, RMB 1.57, and RMB 1.75 respectively [10] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies is projected at 15x for 2025, while the company is assigned a PE of 11.5x, leading to a revised target price of RMB 16.47 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced strong growth in overseas sales, with a 21.7% increase in foreign revenue for 2024, while domestic sales faced pressure with a decline of 4.4% [2] - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 20.9%, primarily due to intensified market competition and changes in sales structure [3] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 43.0% year-on-year [1][4] Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company's revenue from kitchen appliances was 11.51 billion yuan, up 16.3%, while home appliances revenue was 2.92 billion yuan, up 17.4% [2] - The revenue from global ODM/OEM and proprietary brands in 2024 was 14.34 billion yuan and 2.48 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +20.1% and -8.3% [2] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 6.6%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 22.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures [4] Future Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.16 billion yuan, 1.27 billion yuan, and 1.38 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 9.4%, and 8.5% [4]