Group 1 - The tourism and scenic area sector increased by 0.71% on February 4, with Caesar Travel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Key stocks in the tourism sector showed various performance, with Caesar Travel closing at 6.47, up 3.69%, and Xi'an Tourism at 10.53, up 3.54% [1] Group 2 - The tourism sector experienced a net outflow of 65.82 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 132 million yuan [2] - Notable stocks with significant fund flows included Caesar Travel with a net inflow of 73.92 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow from retail investors of 58.75 million yuan [3] - Yunnan Tourism had a net inflow of 14.19 million yuan from main funds, with a net outflow of 8.36 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the consumer services industry, particularly focusing on the upcoming Spring Festival consumption boost [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Spring Festival consumption season is set to begin, with various local governments implementing consumption-boosting policies, which are expected to drive strong market performance [1][2]. - Three major highlights of the consumption promotion activities are identified: unprecedented subsidy levels directly reaching consumers, innovative consumption scenarios integrating various sectors, and the synergy between online and offline channels through digital empowerment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The consumer services industry is rated as "Recommended" with a focus on benefiting companies in dining, hotels, tourism, duty-free, and retail sectors due to the anticipated recovery in consumer enthusiasm [1][3]. Key Highlights of Consumption Promotion - Subsidies are at an all-time high, with local governments offering consumption vouchers and subsidies exceeding 100 million yuan in various provinces, which is expected to enhance consumer purchasing power [2]. - Innovative consumption scenarios are being developed, moving beyond traditional discounts to immersive experiences that combine culture, tourism, and sports, thereby revitalizing traditional service sectors [2]. - The integration of online and offline channels is becoming more pronounced, with e-commerce platforms actively participating in promotional activities, enhancing efficiency and broadening the consumption landscape [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a robust recovery in the Spring Festival consumption market in 2026, with data potentially exceeding market expectations, laying a solid foundation for sustained consumer market recovery throughout the year [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Zhongxin Tourism (002707) expects a significant decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a profit of 5 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 95.28% [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to the use of reserve funds to cover losses, leading to the termination of the recognition of deferred tax assets, which resulted in a profit reduction of 71.51 million yuan [1] - Additionally, the company faces challenges from international situations and market competition, which have contributed to a slowdown in revenue growth, as well as a decrease in gross margin and profitability levels [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy benefits in the service consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of optimizing and expanding service supply to foster new growth points in service consumption. The government's plan includes 12 measures across key and potential areas, aiming to enhance service quality and support economic development [1][3]. - The focus on supply-side structural reforms is expected to stimulate both short-term and long-term consumer demand, promoting a virtuous cycle of employment, income, and consumption, thereby providing long-term support for economic growth [3][7]. - Key areas of focus include transportation, domestic services, cultural tourism, and sports events, with potential areas such as performance services and experiential consumption also highlighted for their growth potential [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Support Areas - The report outlines three main policy support areas with twelve specific measures, including: 1. Transportation services aimed at integrating tourism and enhancing service quality [7]. 2. Domestic services focusing on innovation and skill training [7]. 3. Cultural tourism services that encourage infrastructure development and enhance consumer experiences [7]. Potential Growth Areas - The report identifies potential growth areas such as performance services, sports events, and experiential consumption, which are expected to drive demand in related sectors like accommodation and dining [3][7]. Financial and Structural Support - The report emphasizes the need for a robust support system, including the establishment of standards, credit building, and financial backing to ensure the stable development of service consumption [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongxin Tourism, expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a profit of 5 million yuan, which represents a 95.28% decrease compared to the same period last year [1] Summary by Category - **Company Performance** - Zhongxin Tourism anticipates a net profit of 5 million yuan for 2025, indicating a drastic reduction of 95.28% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongxin Tourism is expected to report a net profit of 5 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a significant year-on-year decline of 95.28% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The decline in profit is attributed to the use of reserve funds to cover losses, which led to the termination of the recognition of deferred tax assets, resulting in a profit reduction of 71.51 million yuan [1] - The company's revenue growth has slowed due to international circumstances and market competition, leading to a decrease in gross margin and overall profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongxin Tourism, forecasts a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, indicating challenges in revenue growth and profitability due to external market conditions [1] Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 95.28% compared to the previous year [1] - The forecasted net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is 70 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 33.44% year-on-year [1] Corporate Actions - On December 10 and December 26, 2025, the company held board and shareholder meetings to approve a proposal to use reserve funds to cover losses, utilizing a total of approximately 407.36 million yuan from surplus and capital reserves [1] - The company has decided to terminate the recognition of deferred tax assets amounting to 71.51 million yuan, which will reduce the reported profit for the period [1] Market Conditions - The company’s revenue growth has slowed due to changes in international circumstances and intense market competition, leading to a decline in overall gross margin and profitability compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, indicating challenges in financial performance due to various factors [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 million yuan for 2025, representing a 95.28% decrease compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 70 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 33.44% [1] Reasons for Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to the use of reserve funds to cover losses, which led to the termination of the recognition of deferred tax assets, resulting in a profit reduction of 71.51 million yuan [1] - Additionally, the company faces challenges from international situations and market competition, which have slowed revenue growth and decreased gross margins and profitability levels [1]