A股机场航运板块盘初走弱，吉祥航空跌超3%，春秋航空、中国国航、南方航空、华夏航空、中国东 航跟跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The average annual growth rate of China's civil aviation passenger supply (available seat kilometers, ASK) is expected to be around 3.1% from 2025 to 2028, significantly lower than the 15.4% growth rate from 2009 to 2019, indicating a solid foundation for the aviation cycle to start [1][12][64]. Supply Growth Factors - The introduction of tariffs may further suppress the growth rate of China's civil aviation supply. Although the tariff rate has significantly decreased compared to April 2025, it still impacts the willingness of Chinese airlines to introduce new Boeing aircraft, potentially leading to a longer recovery cycle for aircraft manufacturers' production capacity [3][6]. - As of April 2025, Chinese airlines have nearly 600 aircraft orders from Boeing and Airbus, with most deliveries concentrated between 2025 and 2027. However, there is a high uncertainty regarding delivery timelines, with an expected 25% of aircraft deliveries being delayed in the next three years [3][13][20]. - The impact of leased aircraft on China's aviation supply is expected to gradually diminish, as major airlines have substantial aircraft orders and are less inclined to expand their fleets through leasing due to rising leasing costs [3][43]. Aircraft Retirement Trends - The volume of aircraft retirements remains at a peak level, with the industry entering a phase of high aircraft retirements due to aging fleets and concentrated lease expirations. The retirement rate is projected to stabilize around 2.5% in the coming years [4][51]. - Factors affecting aviation supply include aircraft utilization rates, which are expected to gradually improve, and a trend of decreasing average seat numbers per aircraft due to the increasing proportion of smaller aircraft [4][59]. Tariff Impacts - The tariffs imposed on U.S. imports have increased the costs for Chinese airlines to acquire Boeing aircraft, potentially leading to a decrease in demand for new aircraft and delays in orders [6][30]. - The global supply chain for aircraft manufacturing remains tight, with tariffs exacerbating the situation by increasing the costs of imported components, thereby extending the aircraft maintenance cycles [8][7]. Production Capacity and Delivery Issues - The production capacity of Boeing, Airbus, and COMAC is affected by global supply chain constraints and tariffs, leading to slower recovery in production capacity and delivery timelines [7][20]. - The delivery peak for Airbus aircraft is expected in 2026, while Boeing's delivery peak is anticipated in 2027, with significant uncertainty surrounding the delivery schedules due to production capacity issues [21][34]. Market Dynamics - The average annual growth rate of the passenger fleet is projected to be 2.8% from 2025 to 2028, a significant decrease from pre-2020 levels, driven by rationalized aircraft acquisitions and the peak retirement phase in the aviation market [61][64]. - The demand for domestic aircraft, particularly the C919, is expected to grow, but actual delivery timelines may be extended due to production capacity constraints and tariff impacts [35][38].

Group 1 - The A-share airport and shipping sector has strengthened, with Huaxia Airlines rising over 7% [1] - Both Juneyao Airlines and China National Aviation have increased by more than 3% [1] - China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines also experienced gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting fortunes within the low-cost airline industry, exemplified by the struggles of Happy Airlines against the backdrop of profitable competitors like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines. It emphasizes that the challenges faced by Happy Airlines stem from internal issues rather than the overall industry climate [5][8][15]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The low-cost airline sector has seen significant growth, with the market share of low-cost carriers in the Asia-Pacific region increasing from 28.1% in 2020 to 32.4% in 2024 for domestic routes, and from 8.4% to 18.6% for international routes [11]. - In China, the low-cost airline market accounted for only 8.1% of domestic routes as of last year, indicating substantial growth potential as the market matures [11]. - Projections suggest that by 2025, the Chinese low-cost airline market could exceed 120 billion yuan, representing 25% of the total civil aviation transport market, with an annual compound growth rate of 18% [11][12]. Group 2: Happy Airlines' Struggles - Happy Airlines has faced continuous operational challenges since its inception, including a lack of profitability and high debt levels, with a reported asset-liability ratio exceeding 200% as of April this year [19][20]. - The airline's fleet primarily consists of the New Zhou 60 aircraft, which has not been well-received in the market, compounded by competition from high-speed rail networks [19]. - Despite attempts to diversify its fleet by introducing Boeing 737 aircraft, the airline's financial situation worsened due to the pandemic and increased operational costs [19][20]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines have established strong market positions through efficient operational strategies, such as maximizing seating capacity and minimizing operational costs [24][25]. - Traditional full-service airlines are increasingly competing in the low-cost segment, leading to price wars that blur the lines between low-cost and full-service offerings [28][29]. - The overall aviation industry is experiencing "profit anxiety," with average ticket prices declining significantly, impacting profitability across the board [30][31].

Core Insights - The event "Jinglongyun・Ruyixing" focused on the deep integration of aviation and tourism, highlighting the collaboration between Gansu and Hubei provinces for the summer flight season of 2025 [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was co-hosted by Gansu Airport Group, Hubei Airport Group, and Tongcheng Travel, attracting over 120 industry elites from aviation, tourism, and media sectors [2] - Major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines participated, showcasing their latest travel products [2] Group 2: Flight Network and Services - Gansu Airport Group plans to operate over 200 passenger routes this summer, connecting nearly 100 cities, with 12 new routes linking Gansu and Hubei [2] - New domestic routes include "Lanzhou-Zhangye-Dunhuang" and "Lanzhou-Jinchang-Jiayuguan," increasing the total number of domestic routes to 27 [2] - The introduction of the "Jinglan Fly・Ruyixing" transfer service aims to enhance passenger convenience with features like expedited check-in and free accommodation [2] Group 3: Data Analysis and Marketing Strategies - Tongcheng Travel utilized big data to analyze travel preferences and spending habits of tourists from Gansu and Central China [3] - The event promoted the "Air-Rail Intermodal" travel solution and exclusive discounts to encourage travel between Gansu and Hubei [3] - The collaboration signifies a deeper partnership in optimizing flight routes and sharing tourism resources between the two provinces [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the aviation industry is expected to see a turnaround in performance starting in 2025, driven by declining oil prices and long-term supply-demand optimization [1] - The overall trend in the aviation sector from 2025 onwards is characterized by increased volume and stable pricing, with international routes nearing full recovery [1][2] - Airlines are shifting their strategy from price prioritization to a balance of volume and price, with expectations of rising capacity and load factors in 2024, despite pressure on ticket prices [2] Group 2 - Supply of capacity remains constrained due to factors such as supply chain bottlenecks and trade frictions, with aircraft delivery rates expected to be below expectations in the coming years [3] - The significant drop in oil prices is expanding profit margins for airlines, with a 1% decrease in oil prices leading to cost reductions or profit increases for major airlines [4] - If fuel prices remain low in 2025, it will provide substantial support to airline profits [4]

智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，进入二季度后，民航旅客运输量增长速度有所回升，行业供 给保持低位，价格降幅有所收窄。五一小长假民航量价数据表现良好，各航司收益管理成效逐步体现， 看好民航业价格改善趋势。当前关税压力暂时缓解，油价汇率走势友好，推荐春秋航空、吉祥航空、华 夏航空，关注大航业绩底部回暖。 全国民航国际及地区航线同比稳步放量，主要国际及地区航线中，日韩、新西兰、马来西亚、越南等地 恢复水平较好。分航空公司来看，大航中，国航、东航运力投放同比增长较快，民营航司中吉祥航空运 力大幅转向投入国际航线，各航司国际线客座率同比表现有所差异，东航、南航、吉祥客座率同比有所 提升，国航、春秋则有所下降。地区市场方面，因中国香港、中国台湾区域市场航班量波动，各航司地 区线市场运力投放整体有所下降。 飞机引进保持低位，油价汇率走势友好 民航运力引进整体仍保持低位，2024年民航客机机队规模4126架，同比仅增长2.8%，其中宽体机减量9 架，2025年前四个月民航客机引进合计64架，仍保持低位，供给增长依然缓慢。此外，近期油价震荡走 低，汇率企稳，利好民航成本费用端表现，预计民航二季度业绩有望好转。 中邮证券 ...

证券研究报告：航空运输|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 2000.5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2398.85 | | 52 周最低 | | 1625.59 | 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《6 月客座率超 19 年同期，中报预告基 本符合预期》 - 2024.07.16 航空运输 4 月数据点评 客座率同比走高，价格预期改善 l 各航司披露 2025 年 4 月运营数据 各航空公司披露 2025 年 4 月运营数据。4 月各航司整体运量保 持增长，增速略快于 3 月。各航司间运营表现有所分化，大航中，东 航运量增速靠前，民营航司中，春秋增速快于吉祥。客座率方面，三 大航客座率继续走高，南航、东航客座率突破 85%，春秋客座率略有 下降，吉祥客座率略有上升。 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -20% -16% -12% -8% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in ticket prices, with expectations for continued recovery in ticket prices during the peak travel season due to strong demand [3][5]. - The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines as potential investment opportunities [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that the passenger load factor remains high, with strong travel demand during the May Day holiday, leading to a noticeable reduction in the year-on-year decline in ticket prices [3][4]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in industry ticket prices has significantly narrowed, with ticket prices in May showing a decline of only 3.0% compared to the previous year [5][27]. - The average domestic ticket price from the beginning of 2025 until May 18 is 847 yuan, reflecting a 10.0% year-on-year decrease [5][27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by fleet issues, with potential delays in aircraft introductions due to supply chain problems and limited short-term improvements in utilization rates due to engine maintenance [3][4]. - The demand side shows sustained growth in travel demand during peak seasons, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential rise in ticket prices [3][4]. 4. Operational Performance of Airlines - In April 2025, domestic airlines experienced a year-on-year increase in capacity and turnover, with passenger load factors exceeding levels from 2019 [47][49]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft in April, adding five aircraft to its fleet [47][48]. 5. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation fuel has shown a continuous year-on-year decline, with May's average price at 5,385 yuan per ton, down 19.0% from the previous year [41][41]. - Brent crude oil prices have also decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 23.6% as of May 16, 2025 [41][41]. 6. Exchange Rate Stability - The exchange rate has remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1916 as of May 19, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% from the end of 2024 [41][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a notable improvement in passenger load factors, with April's load factor increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 84.3% year-on-year, driven by a 7.8% increase in capacity [1][2]. - Revenue management strategies are beginning to show positive results, with domestic ticket prices increasing by 11.5% during the week of May 5-11 [1][4]. - The supply growth in the aviation sector is expected to remain low, which, combined with effective revenue management, suggests a potential for improved profitability for airlines throughout the year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - The three major airlines reported a load factor increase of 3.1 percentage points to 84.0% in April, with domestic routes showing a 3.9 percentage point increase to 85.3% [2][10]. - Spring Airlines experienced a decline in load factor by 2.5 percentage points to 88.2%, while Juneyao Airlines showed a strong performance with a load factor increase of 2.9 percentage points to 86.2% [3][10]. Capacity and Revenue - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) for the three major airlines and Spring Airlines increased by 7.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in capacity [10]. - Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) also rose by 11.5%, reflecting a strong demand recovery [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the supply-demand structure will continue to improve, leading to a favorable environment for revenue management and profitability enhancement during the peak summer travel season [4][21]. - The expected low supply growth, coupled with rising ticket prices, is likely to support airlines' earnings recovery [1][4]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several airlines, including China National Aviation (601111 CH), China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), with target prices set at 10.20, 5.15, and 69.10 respectively [20][21].