公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 光线传媒（300251）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 《哪吒 2》驱动 Q1 业绩高增，后续片单储备 丰富，IP 价值持续挖掘 事项： ❖ 24 年全年实现收入 15.86 亿元（YOY+3%），归母净利润 2.92 亿元（YOY-30%）， 扣非归母净利润 2.44 亿元（YOY-37%），同比下降 37%。25Q1 实现营收 29.75 亿元（YOY+178%），归母净利润 20.16 亿元（YOY+375%），扣非归母净利润 20 亿元（YOY+381%)。 评论： [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,586 | 4,407 | 2,254 | 2,720 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.6% | 177.9% | -48.9% | 20.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 292 | 2,462 | 1,042 | 1,215 | | 同比增速(%) ...

深挖IP 价值，转型IP 创造者与运营商。公司正在进行第二次转型，从"高端内容提供商"转变为"IP 的创 造者和运营商"。IP 创造方面，资源更多向动画电影倾斜，真人电影聚焦大片制作、类型化和系列化的 开发与创新；IP运营方面，以搭建专业的IP 运营团队，目前已在游戏、卡牌、谷子、线上及线下品牌 店、主题乐园等多个领域规划和布局，通过自主研发、与优质团队深度合作以及战略投资等多元方式， 迅速拓展业务版图。 盈利预测：预计公司25/26/27 年归母净利润分别为24.39/12.67/14.56 亿元，YoY+735%/-48%/+15%，维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示：电影制作进度不及预期；票房表现不及预期；市场竞争加剧 事件：公司发布2024 年年报及2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营收15.86 亿元，YoY+2.58%，归母净利润 2.92 亿元，YoY-30.11%；2025Q1 实现营收29.75 亿元，YoY+177.87%；归母净利润20.16 亿元， YoY+374.79%。 《哪吒2》票房刷新影史记录，助力1Q 实现大幅增长。2024 年公司电影及相关衍生业务收入11.29 亿 元，Yo ...

Group 1 - The film "Nezha: The Devil's Child" has received a "Special Contribution Film" honor from the National Film Administration for its outstanding performance in the domestic and international markets since its release during the 2025 Spring Festival [1] - As of now, "Nezha 2" has achieved a global box office of over 15.7 billion, ranking 5th in global box office history, with a gap of approximately 700 million from the 4th place "Titanic" at 16.423 billion [1] - The film's release has been extended for a third time until May 31, allowing it to contribute additional box office revenue during the "May Day" holiday [1] Group 2 - The listed company Light Media (300251.SZ) has benefited from the film's success, reporting a cumulative box office revenue of approximately 4.84 billion by February 4, with expected revenue from the film ranging between 950 million to 1.01 billion [2] - Based on the film's total box office of 15.7 billion, Light Media's total revenue from "Nezha 2" is estimated to rise to around 3 billion [2]

Group 1 - As of April 28, a total of 495 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have experienced net outflows of main funds for five consecutive days or more [1] - The stock with the longest consecutive net outflow is Gao Meng New Materials, with 17 days, followed by *ST Jiu You with 16 days [1] - The largest total net outflow amount is from Light Media, with a cumulative net outflow of 2.024 billion yuan over five days [1] Group 2 - China Duty Free has seen a cumulative net outflow of 1.803 billion yuan over 13 days, ranking second in total outflow [1] - The stock with the highest net outflow ratio relative to trading volume is *ST Longyu, which has seen a 26.28% decline over the past six days [1] - The table lists various stocks with their respective net outflow days, amounts, ratios, and cumulative price changes, indicating a trend of declining stock prices among those with significant net outflows [1][2] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF (product code: 159562) tracks the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index and has seen a 1.39% decline over the past five days [4] - The ETF has a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.23 times and has experienced a net inflow of 3.337 million yuan, with the latest share count increasing by 1 million to 430 million [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, China's film market saw a strong start with a total box office of 243.87 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.08% [1] - The robust performance during the Spring Festival contributed significantly to the positive results, with several listed film companies reporting year-on-year earnings growth [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Light Media (SZ300251) reported a net profit exceeding 2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is seven times the total net profit of approximately 292 million yuan for the entire year of 2024 [1] - The success of the animated film "Nezha 2" played a crucial role in Light Media's financial performance [1] Group 3: Strategic Decisions - Light Media transitioned from television to film production, ceasing all television program production in 2015, which resulted in a loss of over 100 million yuan in annual profits and the layoff of hundreds of employees [12] - The company has invested over 2.5 billion yuan in the animation sector over the past decade, focusing on long-term projects despite initial skepticism from the market [18] Group 4: Future Outlook - Light Media aims to develop a "Chinese Mythology Universe" through a series of animated films over the next 20 years, planning to release more than 50 films [19] - The company recognizes the challenges posed by changing audience preferences and is preparing to adapt by creating IPs and exploring innovative content to avoid creative stagnation [19]

以下文章来源于毒眸 ，作者毒眸编辑部 毒眸 . 看透娱乐，死磕真相 净利润翻了近5倍， 股价却应声下跌。 文 ｜ Patty 编辑 ｜ 刘南豆 来源｜ 毒眸（ID：DomoreDumou） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 《哪吒之魔童闹海》（以下简称《哪吒2》）创造的"票房奇迹"变成了"业绩奇迹"。 最近，光线传媒同时发布了"一冷一热"两份财报：2024年营收15.86亿，同比微增2.58%，扣非后的净利润2441.48万元，同比下滑 37.09%；2025年一季度营收29.74亿，同比增长177.87%，净利润高达20亿，同比大增380.71%。 （来源：百度股市通） 光线上一次公布《哪吒2》带来的收入还是春节档的热映期：截至2月4日累计票房48.40亿，来源于该影片的营业收入区间约为 9.50-10.10亿。那则公告过后，不少人一直在猜测《哪吒2》给光线的最终增益究竟几何？答案揭晓，虽然还有大笔的应收账款， 光线一个季度的净利润就达到了惊人的20亿。 振奋的业绩顺势带出了光线的战略转型——从"高端内容提供商"转变为"IP的创造者和运营商"。江山代有才人出，各认领"中国迪 士尼"三五年。这回，是第二次轮到光 ...

Group 1: Animation Film Strategy - The company is shifting resources towards animated films, leveraging its accumulated resources and talent in this area to build a complete animation film industry chain [1] - Plans to establish a new animation film brand in Q1 and expand animation production capacity, aiming to increase the production team from approximately 150 to over 300 people in the next two years [2] - The goal is to achieve a production capacity of 1.5 to 2 high-quality animated films per year [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Revenue - As of March 31, 2025, the company reported a contract liability balance of 470 million, primarily from advance payments for series and films [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 was 4.885 billion, which includes payables to partners [4] - The company confirmed that the revenue from "Nezha: The Devil's Child" as of March 31, 2025, was included in the Q1 report, with a total box office of 15.078 billion [6][7] Group 3: Investment and Risk Management - The budget for the AAA game project is manageable and will share resources with related animated film productions, thus reducing costs [2] - The theme park project will adopt a light asset model, focusing on planning and management rather than heavy investment, which helps control risks [2] - The company is exploring potential acquisitions in the IP operation and derivative product sectors, indicating a proactive approach to investment [8] Group 4: Market and Industry Insights - The film market's core issue is supply; the company believes that the quantity and quality of attractive works need to increase to stabilize box office performance [4] - The overall production costs in the film industry have been rising, which increases investment risks, but the company is implementing measures to mitigate these risks [11] - The company aims to create a unique IP ecosystem rather than becoming a direct competitor to established entities like Disney, focusing on a unified planning approach for its projects [14] Group 5: Talent Development and IP Management - The company has developed a significant internal team of producers, with over 15 mature producers already in place [10] - Plans to establish an online brand store this year and a physical store next year, indicating a strategy to develop a new industry chain [4] - The company is committed to enhancing its IP management capabilities, aiming to diversify its revenue structure beyond box office dependence [6]

Core Viewpoint - Light Media is venturing into the AAA game development sector, aiming to leverage its rich IP resources and animation expertise, despite facing significant challenges in a competitive market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Light Media announced the establishment of a game company focused on AAA games, with plans to launch its first title in approximately three years [1]. - The company has previously invested in the gaming sector, acquiring a 20% stake in Guangzhou Xianhai Network Technology Co., Ltd. in 2014, which has now expanded to 100% ownership [2]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue of 2.975 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.016 billion yuan, driven by successful IPs like "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - AAA games typically require substantial financial investment, resources, and time, with average development costs exceeding $100 million and development cycles ranging from 3 to 5 years [1][5]. - The global AAA game market is experiencing steady growth, with projected revenues of $42.8 billion for console games and $37.3 billion for PC games in 2024 [5]. - The competition in the AAA game market is intense, with established franchises like "Call of Duty" and "Assassin's Creed" dominating, alongside major domestic players like Tencent and NetEase increasing their investments [6][9]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Light Media faces the challenge of effectively translating its film IPs into engaging gameplay, as the narrative structure of films differs significantly from the interactive nature of games [3]. - The company must navigate the inherent contradictions between the film industry's focus on blockbuster releases and the gaming industry's emphasis on long-term engagement and content updates [3]. - The development of AAA games is fraught with uncertainty, as exemplified by the lengthy development times and potential delays faced by other projects in the industry [9].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 1.586 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.11% to 292 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.975 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 177.87%, with a net profit of 2.016 billion yuan, up 374.79% [1] - The company’s total box office for films it invested in and released in 2024 was approximately 3.27 billion yuan, with the Spring Festival film "The 20th Article" contributing 2.429 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The company has a rich content matrix with multiple upcoming releases, including films "Unique" and "East Extreme Island" expected to launch during the May Day and summer seasons [2] - The company is actively exploring and developing various derivative products based on popular IPs like "Nezha," aiming to expand revenue channels and create a complete IP monetization model [2] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.361 billion, 1.210 billion, and 1.373 billion yuan, maintaining a "recommended" rating based on the strong performance of "Nezha 2" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported mixed financial results for 2024, with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit, while showing strong performance in Q1 2025 driven by the success of "Nezha 2" [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.586 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.58%, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 30.11% to 292 million RMB [1] - The company plans to distribute approximately 585 million RMB in dividends for 2024, which is 200.24% of the net profit [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.975 billion RMB, a substantial year-on-year increase of 177.87%, and net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 374.79% to 2.016 billion RMB [1] Business Segments - The film business in 2024 generated revenue of 1.129 billion RMB, a decline of 12.22% due to market conditions and seasonal fluctuations [2] - "Nezha 2" has been a significant contributor, generating approximately 3 billion RMB in revenue, with a total box office close to 15.1 billion RMB [2] - The company is transitioning from a "high-end content provider" to an "IP creator and operator," focusing on expanding its animation production capacity and developing a robust IP operation team [2] Future Projects - The company has a rich pipeline of upcoming releases, including films and TV series, with titles like "Unique" and "East Extreme Island" set for release in 2025 [3] - The "Light Mythology Universe" is being developed, with projects like "Jiang Ziya 2" and "Eight Immortals Cross the Sea" in the planning stages, aiming to leverage traditional Chinese culture [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to see net profits of 2.387 billion RMB, 1.076 billion RMB, and 1.296 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 24.34, 53.97, and 44.81 [3]