行业深度研究 | 通信 IDC 需求测算逻辑、估值探讨与标的梳理 IDC 行业报告（二） 引言：上篇报告中，我们讨论了 IDC 是一门什么样的生意、AIDC 与 IDC 的 差异、如何理解 IDC 需求、如何把握供给端发展演变，以及 IDC 将何去何 从。本篇报告是我们 IDC 行业报告的第二篇，聚焦市场关注点，重点讨论量 化视角下的 IDC 需求和 IDC 估值两个问题，并梳理相关标的。 如何多视角测算 IDC 需求？我们提供四种 IDC 需求测算逻辑：1）资本开支 视角：从 BBAT 资本开支计划推算，内含两个测算逻辑思路，资本开支/单台 服务器价格或单 W 投资金额，再推导至 AI 服务器需求量及其对应的 IDC 能 耗。2）应用的 Token 调用量视角：从 token 需求到 FLOPS 需求到 GW 需 求。3）IDC 厂商收入视角：预测 IDC 主要上市公司未来 IDC 收入，结合其 市场份额，反推 IDC 市场规模。4）服务器出货量视角：跟踪 AI 服务器季度 出货量，从而推算 IDC 上架需求。四种思路各有优劣，其共通之处在于把握 IDC 核心设备 AI 服务器，包括其价格、功率、性能指标。 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 通信 证券研究报告 OpenAI 发布 ChatGPT 智能体，商务部部长会见英伟达 CEO 据商务部网站消息，7 月 17 日商务部部长王文涛会见美国英伟达公司总裁兼首席 执行官黄仁勋。王文涛表示，中国吸引外资政策不会变，开放的大门只会越开越 大。中国市场规模巨大，应用场景丰富，创新创造充满活力，希望包括英伟达在内 的跨国公司为中国客户提供优质可靠的产品和服务。黄仁勋表示，中国市场非常有 吸引力，英伟达愿同中国合作伙伴在人工智能领域深化合作。 本周投资观点： 本周行业动态： OpenAI 发布 ChatGPT 智能体 近日 OpenAI 宣布将在 ChatGPT 中推出一款通用型 AI 智能体，该公司表示该智能 体可以帮助用户完成各种基于计算机的任务。该工具名为 ChatGPT agent，结合了 OpenAI 之前多种智能体工具的功能，包括 Operator 点击网站的能力，以及 Deep Research 从数十个网站中综合信息生成简洁研究报告的能力。OpenAI 表示用户只 需通过自然语言提示 ChatGPT 即可与该智能体进行交互。 商务部部长王文涛会见英伟达 CEO 黄 ...

订单规模方面，字节跳动引领大基地需求增长 2024年中国智算中心在建项目快速增长，全国不同建设阶段的项目超500个。第三方IDC下单规模约为 2.5GW，其中字节跳动需求约为2GW。智算发展推动数据中心向高密度、高能效方向迈进，全球平均 机架功率不断提升，国内乌兰察布和海外东南亚成为数据中心发展的热点区域。乌兰察布自2013年起大 力发展大数据产业，签约机架规模超110万，算力运营规模可观;东南亚地区数据中心市场爆发式增 长，"SJB走廊"有望成为全球最大的数据中心市场之一，柔佛州凭借自身优势吸引众多国际巨头布局。 从市场环境来看，供需修复、价格企稳，随着需求持续增长，涨价可期 国内数据中心市场经过前期调整，供需结构逐渐优化，价格企稳。海外数据中心已出现涨价趋势，随着 AI对智算数据中心需求的增加，全球数据中心市场的供需将进一步平衡，租金价格有望回升。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦风险，政府及行业投资进度低于预期，行业需求低于预期。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，若参考字节、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、腾讯控股(00700)的资本 开支规划及对AI投入的景气度判断，预计未来三年国内的头部互联网厂商资本开支 ...

Market Overview - Chinese markets opened high but closed lower, with financial stocks dragging down the index while pharmaceutical stocks remained strong[3] - European markets were subdued due to tariff concerns and rumors regarding Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, leading to a decline in major indices[3] - U.S. markets experienced volatility due to the same rumors, but recovered after Trump denied plans to fire Powell, bringing indices close to historical highs[3] Commodity and Forex - Following Trump's denial, international gold prices retracted some gains, with New York futures closing up 0.67% at $3,359.1 per ounce[26] - Oil prices fell slightly, with New York crude down 0.21% to $66.38 per barrel, influenced by inventory data[26] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 98.39, while the euro appreciated by 0.3% against the dollar, reaching 1.164[25] Fixed Income - U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply due to rumors about Powell's job security, with the 10-year yield at 4.46% after a drop of 2.6 basis points[29] - Asian bond markets showed resilience, with investment-grade bond spreads narrowing by 1-4 basis points[29] Key Economic Indicators - U.S. June PPI remained unchanged, below the expected increase of 0.2%, alleviating inflation concerns[8] - The European Commission proposed a nearly €2 trillion budget for 2028-2034, indicating significant fiscal planning ahead[5] Sector Performance - In the U.S., healthcare stocks led gains with an increase of 1.22%, driven by strong earnings from Johnson & Johnson, which saw a 6.19% rise in stock price[8] - In the A-share market, healthcare and non-daily consumer goods sectors both rose by 0.6%, while financials fell by 0.4%[16] Notable Stocks - Goldman Sachs reported a 22% year-on-year increase in Q2 net profit to $3.72 billion, exceeding market expectations, primarily driven by a 36% rise in stock trading revenue[7] - The largest IPO in A-share this year, Huadian New Energy, surged 125.79% on its debut, reaching a market cap of approximately ¥300 billion[16]

Summary of IDC Industry Update and Company Recommendations Industry Overview - The IDC industry is shifting its core competitiveness from energy consumption metrics to scale effects and first-mover advantages in the AI era, with ultra-large IDC clusters, especially high-power clusters, becoming crucial. The power demand per cabinet has increased to over 100 kilowatts [1][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - Long-term trends in computing power investment remain unchanged, although short-term adjustments may occur due to chip procurement and deployment rhythms. The growth in TOKEN volume and model iteration value continues to support ongoing investments, altering industry logic [1][5]. - The IDC sector has previously faced demand concerns, chip bans, and regulatory guidance, but the outlook is improving. The demand for computing power for AI model training is rapidly increasing, with major overseas companies accelerating data center construction [1][2][9]. - The chip ban previously led to a significant inventory write-down for NVIDIA's H20 servers, affecting approximately 390,000 server sales, corresponding to 160-200 megawatts of IT capacity. NVIDIA plans to launch the RTX Pro GPU, and domestic GPUs will also be delivered, alleviating tender and listing issues [1][10][11]. - Regulatory guidance has extended the approval time for energy consumption metrics, limiting local capacity oversupply, which benefits leading companies. The first batch of energy consumption metrics is expected to be approved in the third quarter [1][12]. Company-Specific Insights - Runze Technology has resumed its IDC renovation and is expected to achieve an 80%-90% listing rate by year-end, with a projected quarter-on-quarter performance increase. The company anticipates selling 200 megawatts of projects and delivering 220 megawatts of new projects, with a successful public REITs issuance expected to yield over 2 billion in investment returns [3][13][14]. - The company has a robust cash reserve of over 5 billion and plans to utilize public REITs for light asset operations, aiming to acquire related companies in the IDC industry [15]. - Runze Technology's energy consumption metrics have increased by 130% by the end of 2024, with all projects having the necessary metrics, laying a solid foundation for long-term growth [16]. Investment Opportunities and Risks - Despite recent pressures, the IDC sector is showing signs of recovery, with demand for high-power cabinets increasing. Short-term adjustments may present investment opportunities, particularly in companies with high-quality existing resources and listing rates [7][8]. - Recommended companies for further attention include: - GDS Holdings - Century Internet - Huayun Data - David Technology - Aofei Data - Data Port These companies have received high recognition in the market for their public REITs offerings and have various development highlights [17]. Overall Industry Outlook - The IDC sector's previous stock price suppression factors are improving, leading to a more optimistic outlook for future development. Runze Technology is the primary recommendation, with continued attention on other listed companies [18].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **AIDC and AI Education Sector**: The records discuss developments in the AIDC industry, particularly related to NVIDIA's H20 chip, and advancements in AI applications in education. Core Points and Arguments 1. **NVIDIA H20 Chip Release**: NVIDIA's CEO announced the approval of the H20 chip for sales to China, which is expected to accelerate domestic data center construction. The H20 chip has one-sixth the computing power of the H100 but offers competitive advantages in bandwidth and memory [2][12]. 2. **Increased Capital Expenditure**: Institutions predict that major domestic companies will increase their capital expenditures (Capex) due to the availability of the H20 chip, marking a turning point in AI infrastructure development in China [2][12]. 3. **AI in Education**: A shift towards "proactive output" AI products in education is anticipated, with several companies expected to launch AI agents that can replace human teachers in certain capacities. This trend is expected to gain momentum starting in 2025 [6][7]. 4. **Growth in AI Applications**: A report from A16Z indicates that global budgets for AI applications are expected to grow significantly, with an average increase of about 75% in the coming year as companies explore more use cases for AI [9][10]. 5. **Core Companies in AI Education**: Companies like Fangzhitech and Dou Shen Education are highlighted for their innovative AI educational products, which are expected to drive growth in the sector [7][8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Dynamics**: The records mention that the AI application forum will take place on July 18, 2025, focusing on the integration of software and hardware in AI applications [9]. 2. **Financial Performance**: Companies like Lio Co. are expected to report significant improvements in net profit, driven by optimized customer structures in their digital marketing segments [19][20]. 3. **Regulatory Developments**: The approval of new drugs by companies like Lisheng Pharmaceutical indicates a growing market for innovative healthcare solutions, particularly in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease [16][17]. 4. **Investment Opportunities**: The records suggest potential investment opportunities in companies involved in AI, healthcare, and data center infrastructure, particularly those that are adapting to new technologies and market demands [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current trends and future expectations in the AIDC and AI education sectors.

Group 1 - AI computing hardware sector experienced a significant rally, with the ChiNext AI index rising over 6% and approaching historical highs [1][4] - Notable stocks included Xinyi Technology, which hit a 20% limit up, and Zhongji Xuchuang, which surged over 16%, leading the market [1][2] - The ChiNext AI ETF, Huabao (159363), saw a price increase of 7.07%, reaching a historical high in trading volume of 389 million yuan [2][4] Group 2 - The ChiNext AI index has shown a cumulative increase of nearly 45% since the low in April, outperforming other AI indices [4][5] - Xinyi Technology projected a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [6][7] - Nvidia confirmed the resumption of H20 GPU sales in China, which is expected to benefit domestic optical module leaders and increase demand for high-speed optical products [7][8]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the strong performance of computing-related companies and maintains a positive outlook on the global AIDC (AI Data Center) industry chain, driven by increasing demand for data center infrastructure and AI applications [5][19] - The release of Grok 4 by XAI and the introduction of AWS's GB200 UltraServers are significant advancements in AI computing capabilities, enhancing the competitive landscape [16][17] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Insights - The report emphasizes the impressive earnings forecasts from several companies in the computing sector, with Ruijie Networks expecting a net profit of 400 million to 510 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 160.11% to 231.64% [5][13] - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit of 6.727 billion to 6.927 billion yuan for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11% [15] - The demand for high-speed optical modules in computing centers is rapidly increasing, contributing to significant revenue growth for companies like Huagong Technology, which expects a net profit of 890 million to 950 million yuan for H1 2025, up 42.43% to 52.03% year-on-year [14] 2. Market Trends - As of May 2025, China has established 4.486 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 235,000 stations since the end of 2024 [29] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.098 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.3% [29] - The report notes a decline in 5G mobile phone shipments, with 21.19 million units shipped in May 2025, down 17.0% year-on-year [29] 3. Recommended Investment Targets - AIDC Infrastructure: Recommended stocks include New Idea Network Group, Baoxin Software, and Runze Technology; Beneficiary stocks include Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, and Century Interconnect [20] - IT Equipment: Recommended stocks include Ziguang Co. and ZTE; Beneficiary stocks include Cambrian and Inspur [21] - Network Equipment: Recommended stocks include Ziguang Co. and ZTE; Beneficiary stocks include Ruijie Networks and Yingtong Technology [22] - Cloud Computing: Beneficiary stocks include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [25] - AI Applications: Beneficiary stocks include Guanghe Tong and Yiyuan Communication [26] - Satellite Internet & 6G: Beneficiary stocks include Haige Communication and Shenglu Communication [27]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced its 2024 annual profit distribution plan, which includes a cash dividend of 1.288 RMB per 10 shares, totaling approximately 221.73 million RMB to be distributed to shareholders [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan was approved at the annual general meeting held on May 20, 2025 [1]. - The total cash dividend to be distributed is 221,726,836.39 RMB (including tax) [1]. - The distribution will not involve capital reserve conversion to share capital or stock dividends, with remaining undistributed profits carried forward to future years [1]. Group 2: Shareholder and Tax Information - The cash dividend distribution will be adjusted if the company's total share capital changes due to new share issuance, stock options, convertible bonds, or share buybacks [1]. - For shareholders holding shares before the initial public offering, the cash dividend will be 1.1592 RMB per 10 shares after tax [2]. - Different tax rates will apply for individual shareholders based on their holding period, with no tax due for those holding shares for more than one year [3]. Group 3: Key Dates and Methods - The record date for the distribution is set for July 17, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is July 18, 2025 [3]. - Cash dividends will be directly credited to shareholders' accounts through their custodial securities companies on the ex-dividend date [3]. Group 4: Adjustments and Announcements - Any adjustments to the repurchase price limit and quantity of shares will be made following the distribution in accordance with relevant regulations [4]. - Further details regarding adjustments will be announced separately [4].

Core Points - The controlling shareholder of Runze Technology, Jingjin Jirunze, and its concerted party, Beijing Tianxinghui, have reduced their shareholding due to unfulfilled performance commitments, resulting in a total decrease of 1.97% in the company's shares [1] - Specifically, Jingjin Jirunze decreased its holdings by 85.3174 million shares, while Beijing Tianxinghui reduced its holdings by 370,400 shares, totaling a reduction of 85.6878 million shares [1] - Following this repurchase and cancellation, the total share capital of the company decreased from 1.721 billion shares to 1.634 billion shares [1]