Core Insights - The mechanical industry is showing signs of recovery after three years of stagnation, with nominal GDP growth beginning to rise since Q4 2024, positively impacting the mechanical sector [17] - Domestic demand is weak while external demand is strong, particularly in the engineering machinery sector, where exports are gradually increasing due to improvements in the European and American markets [17][19] - The investment landscape is shifting towards overseas expansion and new industries, with a focus on automation and sectors supported by government subsidies [17][19] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is experiencing a dual trend of weak domestic demand and strong external demand, with engineering machinery showing signs of recovery but still facing a fragile foundation [17] - Domestic investment in real estate continues to decline, with a 14.7% year-on-year drop in real estate development investment from January to October 2025, while infrastructure investment growth has also slowed significantly [19][23] - The overall investment environment is expected to stabilize as the gap between domestic and foreign demand narrows, with structural opportunities in infrastructure projects like water conservancy and high-standard farmland construction [23] 2026 Domestic Outlook - The investment gap is expected to narrow, with infrastructure investment declining from high levels and real estate investment under pressure, leading to a focus on structural opportunities [19][23] - Manufacturing investment is crucial, with the core focus on PPI and inventory levels, as domestic manufacturing orders remain sluggish [26][28] - The expectation is that PPI will improve in 2026, driven by factors such as reduced internal competition and improved domestic demand [28] 2026 Overseas Outlook - The downward trend in interest rates is a significant macro narrative, with the U.S. and Europe entering a phase of fiscal expansion, which is expected to benefit Chinese manufacturing [29][38] - The global inventory levels are at historical lows, which could lead to a new investment cycle as demand recovers [35] - The second wave of globalization for Chinese manufacturing is anticipated, driven by fiscal expansion in the U.S. and Europe, and a recovery in industrial product demand [38][40] Stock Selection Strategy - The stock selection strategy for 2026 focuses on two main themes: benefiting from overseas expansion and new industries, particularly in sectors like engineering machinery and specialized equipment [44] - Key sectors include engineering machinery, shipbuilding, and high-tech equipment, with a focus on companies that are expected to maintain stable performance and low valuations [44] - Emerging industries such as AI equipment, lithium battery production, and semiconductor manufacturing are highlighted as areas of significant opportunity [44][45] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and China Shipbuilding, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [7] - Companies in the AI and semiconductor sectors, such as Longchuan Technology and Zhongwei Company, are also recommended due to their growth potential [7] - Future-oriented assets like humanoid robots and controllable nuclear fusion are noted as areas to watch for significant industry changes [7][45]

资金流入比率方面，盛科通信、晶瑞电材、南大光电等流入比率居前，主力资金净流入率分别为 20.59%、6.43%、5.57%。（数据宝） 国家大基金持股概念资金流入榜 截至12月12日收盘，国家大基金持股概念上涨2.81%，位居概念板块涨幅第6，板块内，41股上涨，燕 东微、赛微电子、中科飞测等涨幅居前，分别上涨16.84%、11.52%、10.63%。跌幅居前的有华虹公 司、沪硅产业、西安奕材等，分别下跌1.25%、1.22%、0.93%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可控核聚变 | 4.98 | 赛马概念 | -2.93 | | 超导概念 | 3.37 | 免税店 | -1.60 | | 柔性直流输电 | 3.28 | 共享单车 | -1.58 | | 航空发动机 | 3.11 | 土地流转 | -1.40 | | 核电 | 2.83 | 自由贸易港 | -1.21 | | 国家大基金持股 | 2.81 | 粮食概念 | -1.15 | | 中芯国际概念 | 2.61 | 物业管理 | ...

在「红色警报」后，OpenAI拿出了最新的顶级模型GPT-5.2系列，谷歌也率先反击，推出全新版Gemini Deep Research Agent，聚焦上游半导体设备领域的半 导体设备ETF（159516）盘中领涨超2.8%。 资金持续抢筹，半导体设备ETF（159516）近5日净流入超1.4亿元，年初以来份额增长超160%，当前规模超64亿元，居同类产品第一。 基于这些能力提升，OpenAI称为专业知识型工作打造的GPT-5.2是公司至今最强的模型，"GPT-5.2在众多基准测试中都刷新了行业水平，例如GDPval测试 中，这款模型在涵盖44个职业的明确知识型工作任务中表现超过了行业专家。" 来源：OpenAI OpenAI与谷歌竞争不断，AI景气度持续上行 在「红色警报」后，OpenAI 在北京时间本周五拿出了最新的顶级模型 GPT-5.2 系列 —— 迄今为止在专业知识工作上最强大的模型系列。包含GPT-5.2 Instant、Thinking和Pro模式，此时距离OpenAI更新GPT-5.1只过去了一个月。 此次应对挑战，OpenAI拿出了更多"真枪实弹"。GPT-5.2推出了更多智能上的更新，也 ...

证券日报网讯12月10日，长川科技（300604）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前市场需求旺盛， 公司订单充足，生产经营情况一切正常。 ...

证券研究报告 聚四海星火，淬国之重器——全面为国产算力生产配套 -2026年机械行业年度投资策略 西部证券研发中心 2025年12月8日 张恒晅 | 分析师 S0800525020001 zhanghengxuan@research.xbmail.com.cn 核心结论 AI驱动全球半导体大周期，中国大陆半导体产业同样受惠于此，叠加政策引导，国内集成电路有望实现全产 业链自主可控。 AI发展方兴未艾，IDC预计全球生成式AI市场五年复合增长率或达56.3%，而芯片是AI产业链的核心上游环 节之一，SEMI预测AI驱动下2030年全球半导体市场规模将突破1万亿美元，其中，服务器、数据中心和存储 领域的市场规模复合增速达到18%，领先下游其他领域。而半导体设备作为芯片产业链上游同步受益，LAM 预计未来5年全球数据中心累计2.5万亿美元的资本开支将催生2000亿美元的半导体设备需求。 国内AI产业链投资同样旺盛，同时，算力、存储芯片仍然面临较高的海外依赖度，进口受限叠加国内政策引 导，国内芯片产业链有望实现从上游设备到下游设计环节的全链条自主可控。 先进逻辑方面，国产算力突破，带动国内先进逻辑代工需求。与非网指出 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.06% on December 4, with 9 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by machinery and electronics, which increased by 0.90% and 0.78% respectively [1] - The total net outflow of funds from the two markets was 24.304 billion yuan, with 5 sectors experiencing net inflows, primarily in the machinery sector, which saw a net inflow of 2.911 billion yuan [1] Electronics Sector Performance - The electronics sector rose by 0.78% despite a net outflow of 3.866 billion yuan, with 471 stocks in the sector, of which 181 rose and 282 fell [2] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Cambrian Technologies (6.31 billion yuan), Changchuan Technology (5.23 billion yuan), and Shenghong Technology (4.79 billion yuan) [2] - The sector also had 23 stocks with net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the largest outflows from Xiangnong Chip (759 million yuan), Huaying Technology (446 million yuan), and Jiangbolong (315 million yuan) [2][3] Fund Flow Analysis - The top gainers in the electronics sector included Cambrian Technologies (2.75%), Changchuan Technology (6.96%), and Shenghong Technology (2.19%), with respective main fund flows of 630.76 million yuan, 522.88 million yuan, and 479.37 million yuan [2] - Conversely, the largest losers included Xiangnong Chip (-3.56%), Huaying Technology (-2.76%), and Jiangbolong (-1.30%), with main fund outflows of 758.92 million yuan, 446.47 million yuan, and 314.74 million yuan [3]

Market Overview - On December 4, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3875 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.4% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.01% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.55 trillion yuan, a decrease of 121 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The robotics sector experienced a surge, with stocks like Hengerdai, Haichang New Materials, and Huawu Co. hitting the 20% daily limit up [4][5] - The commercial aerospace concept also strengthened, with multiple stocks including Dahua Intelligent and Sichuan Jinding reaching their daily limit [7] - The semiconductor sector saw gains, with Hongwei Technology rising over 9% [9][10] - The film and cinema sector rallied, with Bona Film Group increasing by over 9% [11][12] - The Hainan sector faced declines, with stocks like Roniu Mountain and Hainan Ruize hitting the daily limit down [13][14] - The liquor sector weakened, with companies like Shede Liquor and Luzhou Laojiao dropping over 3% [15][16] Key Stock Movements - Notable gainers in the robotics sector included: - Hengerdai: +20.01% at 58.60 yuan - Haichang New Materials: +19.99% at 25.57 yuan - Huawu Co.: +19.96% at 11.24 yuan [5][8] - In the commercial aerospace sector, Haichang New Materials and Huawu Co. also saw significant increases [7] - The semiconductor sector's notable performers included: - Hongwei Technology: +9.55% at 28.00 yuan - Zhongke Blue News: +8.90% at 158.53 yuan [10] - In the film sector, Bona Film Group rose by 9.06% to 8.55 yuan [12] Future Outlook - UBS China strategists expect the A-share market to continue its upward trend, projecting an increase in earnings growth to 8% in 2026, up from 6% in 2025 [19]

国金证券指出，现阶段全球半导体市场已结束去库周期，步入强劲复苏周期，设备市场维持高景气。DIGITIMES最新表示，2026年全球半导体市场规模或 将增长18.3%，达8800亿美元；晶圆代工产值则有望达到2331亿美元，增幅17%。 12月4日午后，热门半导体设备ETF（561980）涨幅进一步扩大、拉涨3.53%，成交额破1.5亿元。成份股金海通大涨8.58%，长川科技涨超7%，拓荆科技、 芯源微、京仪装备涨超6%，中科飞测、中微公司、北方华创等多股涨超4%。 数据显示，截至最新，半导体设备ETF（561980）标的指数中证半导年内涨幅高达54%，对比中证全指半导体、中华半导体芯片、国证芯片、芯片产业等主 流半导体指数年内表现位居第一。 据SEMI最新数据显示，2025年第三季度全球半导体设备销售额同比增长11%，达到336.6亿美元，环比增长2%。销售额增长主要得益于先进技术领域的强劲 投资，特别是面向人工智能计算的高端逻辑芯片、DRAM及先进封装解决方案。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

半导体设备材料概念股走强，长川科技涨超6%，拓荆科技涨超5%，中微公司、中科飞测、芯源微涨超4%。 受盘面影响，半导体设备材料相关ETF涨超2%。 世界半导体贸易统计组织表示，将对2025年全球半导体市场规模的估计上调约450亿美元至7720亿美元，同比增幅扩 大至22%，2026年的半导体市场规模将来到9750亿美元，实现25%以上的同比增长，逼近1万亿美元大关。 有券商表示，支撑半导体板块长期发展的逻辑并未改变，供应链安全与自主可控是长期趋势，设备与材料在国产化 顶层设计下逻辑最硬，数字芯片是算力自主的核心载体，先进封测受益于技术升级。 每日经济新闻 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159327 | 半导体设备ETF基金 | 1.716 | 0.042 | 2.51% | | 562590 | 半导体材料ETF | 1.518 | 0.037 | 2.50% | | 159558 | 半导体设备ETF易方达 1.693 | | 0.040 | 2.42% | | 159516 | 半导体设备ETF | 1.448 ...

11月29日，由中国半导体行业协会、成都市经信局、成都市投资促进局指导，崇州市人民政府支持，电 子科技大学、电子科技大学校友总会主办，电子薄膜与集成器件全国重点实验室、电子科技大学集成电 路科学与工程学院（示范性微电子学院）、华润微电子有限公司、 三叠纪（四川）科技有限公司、天府 绛溪实验室 等多家单位联合承办的" 2025集成电路特色工艺与先进封装测试产业技术论坛暨电子科技大 学集成电路行业校友会年会 "顺利在蓉举办。 本次论坛 以" 特色工艺及功率半导体技术 "、" TGV及先进封装产业生态 "与" 集成电路校友生态建设 "为核心 专题，聚焦行业技术前沿与产业实践挑战，成功构建了一个产学研用深度融合，推动集成电路产业链协同创新 与生态建设的交流平台。 论坛共吸引来自全国集成电路设计、制造、封装、测试、设备、材料等领域的200余家企业和集成电路行业校 友在内的600余名代表参会。 开幕式 开幕式由电子科技大学集成电路科学与工程学院党委书记李雪梅主持，电子科技大学 校党委书记曹萍 ， 中国 工程院院士、电子薄膜与集成器件全国重点实验室主任李言荣，成都市经信局、市新经济委党组成员、副局长 蒲斌出席开幕式并致辞。 ...