Group 1 - The establishment of Kachun Yihai (Kashgar) Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. has been reported, with a registered capital of 10 million yuan [1] - The company is involved in various business activities including food sales, seasoning production, beverage production, and agricultural product sales [1] - The company is co-owned by Jinlongyu and Xinjiang Kachun Grain and Oil Co., Ltd. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new food safety standards prohibit the use of terms like "zero added" and "not added" on pre-packaged foods, aiming to address misleading marketing practices in the industry. The implementation date is set for March 16, 2027, allowing companies a two-year transition period to comply [1][2][11]. Group 1: New Regulations - The newly released standards include 59 food safety national standards and amendments, specifically targeting misleading marketing language in pre-packaged food labeling [2][11]. - The revised GB 7718-2025 standard explicitly bans terms synonymous with "not added," such as "zero added" and "no added," to prevent consumer misunderstanding [2][13]. Group 2: Industry Response - Companies like Haidilao, Jinlongyu, and Qianhe have expressed support for the new regulations, indicating a commitment to comply and improve transparency in product labeling [11][12]. - The new regulations are expected to shift the industry focus from "label marketing" to "quality competition," encouraging companies to enhance product development and quality [11][12][14]. Group 3: Marketing Practices - Many brands, including Hao Shi and Wei Chuan, have been found to label products as "zero added" while containing other sugars or additives, highlighting the prevalence of misleading marketing in the industry [3][4][6]. - The dairy sector also sees widespread use of "zero added" claims, with brands like Nayuki and Mengniu promoting products as "zero sugar" or "zero fat," despite containing other forms of sugar [6][7]. Group 4: Consumer Misunderstanding - The marketing of "not added" products has created consumer misconceptions about the safety and quality of food products, leading to increased anxiety over the use of food additives [13][14]. - Experts argue that the new regulations will help consumers return to a more scientifically informed understanding of food safety, reducing the confusion caused by misleading claims [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company "Golden Dragon Fish" (金龙鱼) is facing its most severe operational challenges since its listing, with significant declines in revenue and profit, reflecting broader structural issues in the traditional grain and oil industry [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 238.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.03%, and a net profit of 2.50 billion yuan, down 12.14% year-on-year [2][3]. - The net profit has decreased for four consecutive years, with a cumulative reduction of nearly 60% since its peak in 2020 [2][3]. - The gross profit margin slightly increased by 0.52 percentage points to 5.35%, but the net profit margin fell to a record low of 1.03% [3]. - The company's operating costs account for 99.9% of its revenue, with raw material costs exceeding 90%, indicating minimal profit retention [3]. Brand Image and Trust Issues - The company has faced multiple brand crises, including involvement in a rice adulteration scandal and concerns over supply chain safety due to incidents with mixed oil products [4]. - These events have significantly damaged the brand's reputation and raised consumer concerns about product quality [4]. Operational Challenges - The company operates 80 production bases, but the utilization rates for oil refining and packaging are only 42.2% and less than one-third, respectively [5]. - The expansion strategy has led to increased fixed asset depreciation, negatively impacting net profits by 120 million yuan [5]. - The central kitchen business has not met expectations, with low revenue contribution and underutilized production capacity [5]. Industry Context - The per capita consumption of cooking oil in China has reached 25 kg/year, surpassing the World Health Organization's recommendation, indicating a saturated market [6]. - The grain and oil market has experienced three consecutive years of negative growth, with local brands gaining market share through competitive pricing strategies [6]. - Despite holding over 40% market share, the company's traditional business is being eroded by competitors with differentiated products and strategies [6]. Market Valuation and Investment Risks - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 82 times, significantly higher than the industry average, indicating potential overvaluation [7]. - The stock price has plummeted nearly 80% from its peak of 145.62 yuan per share to 32.09 yuan [7]. - A proposed share swap with a competitor may face regulatory scrutiny due to its significant market share implications and associated tax costs, complicating potential synergies [7].

Industry Overview - The company operates in the kitchen food and feed raw materials and oil technology sectors, focusing on the agricultural and food processing industry chain to provide nutritious, healthy, safe, and high-quality grain and oil products [1][4] - The edible oil industry in China has shown stable development with significant market opportunities due to rising consumer income levels and demand for high-quality products [1][2] - The rice industry remains robust, with a projected production of 208 million tons in 2024, although overall consumption growth has not met expectations [1][2] - The flour industry is experiencing stable consumption, with a shift towards specialized and high-quality products, despite a decline in overall demand for staple foods [1][2] Company Position - The company is a key player in the domestic agricultural and food processing sector, owning several well-known brands such as "Golden Dragon Fish" and "Hu Jihua" [3][4] - The company has been recognized for its quality, receiving a nomination for the China Quality Award and ranking in the BrandFinance 2024 global food brands list [3] Business Operations - The company's main business includes the research, production, and sales of kitchen foods, feed raw materials, and oil technology products, with no significant changes reported during the period [4][5] - The product range encompasses edible oils, rice, flour, seasonings, and various feed raw materials [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that China will become the largest and most diverse high-quality food market, driven by continuous consumer demand for health and quality [6] - The company plans to leverage its strengths in branding, channels, scale, and R&D to expand its market presence and product offerings [6] - The company aims to enhance its operational efficiency through digital transformation and lean management practices [6] - The company is committed to sustainable development and aims to build a green and low-carbon ecosystem while ensuring product quality and safety [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company Jinlongyu, a leading player in China's grain and oil market, has reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the second consecutive year, indicating ongoing challenges in its business model of "low profit, high sales" [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the 2024 fiscal year, Jinlongyu achieved a revenue of 238.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.03% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.50 billion yuan, down 12.14% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's net profit has declined for four consecutive years, dropping from 6.00 billion yuan in its first year post-IPO to 2.50 billion yuan in 2024, representing a cumulative decline of over 58% [3][4]. Business Model and Challenges - Jinlongyu's low gross margin, which fell from a peak of 12.33% in 2020 to just 5.35% in 2024, has been a significant barrier to entry for potential competitors [4][5]. - The company faces high raw material costs, with direct material costs accounting for approximately 90% of operating costs over the past three years, limiting profit margins [5][6]. Diversification Efforts - To address stagnation in its core business, Jinlongyu is exploring new avenues such as central kitchens, soy sauce, vinegar, and plant-based meat products, although these ventures have yet to yield significant revenue [6][7]. - The central kitchen initiative, focusing on pre-prepared meals, has seen the establishment of 25 factories, but the business is still in its early stages and faces intense competition [7][8]. Food Safety Issues - Jinlongyu has encountered multiple food safety incidents, including allegations of improper handling of cooking oil and product quality issues, leading to a decline in consumer trust [9][10]. - The company has faced over a thousand complaints related to product quality and authenticity, further complicating its recovery efforts [10][11]. Overall Assessment - The combination of pressure on core business, weak performance in diversification efforts, and recurring food safety issues presents significant challenges for Jinlongyu as it seeks to recover from declining profits and market value [11].

Core Insights - Yihai Kerry Arawana released its 2024 ESG report, marking its fourth report on sustainable development, showcasing the company's commitment to integrating ESG management with business strategy [1] - The company achieved a score of 68 in the S&P Global 2024 Corporate Sustainability Assessment, ranking in the top 4% globally in the food industry, and was recognized as the "Best Progress Company" in the global food sector [1] Environmental Responsibility - Yihai Kerry Arawana aims for net-zero emissions by 2050, becoming the first in the Chinese grain and oil food industry to publish a detailed roadmap for achieving this goal [2] - The company reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 1.363 million tons of CO2e in 2024 through various measures, including energy efficiency improvements and biomass energy usage [3] - As of the end of 2024, the company has received 103 "green factory" certifications, with 44 being national-level, and has completed carbon footprint certifications for 30 core products [3] Health and Nutrition - The shift in consumer dietary preferences towards health has driven Yihai Kerry Arawana to innovate in health food products, launching items like medium-chain fatty acid oils and low-GI rice and flour products in 2024 [4] - The company is responding to national policies aimed at promoting health and nutrition, aligning its product development with modern health concepts [4] Social Responsibility - Yihai Kerry Arawana employs over 35,000 individuals in China, focusing on enhancing employee welfare and community engagement through various initiatives [5] - The company supports rural revitalization by leveraging agricultural technology and has funded demonstration projects to improve peanut production in traditional growing areas [5] Philanthropy and Community Engagement - Yihai Kerry Arawana is committed to developing replicable and sustainable philanthropic models, emphasizing practical support and continuous assistance in its charitable endeavors [6] - The company plans to upgrade production processes and business models, focusing on technological innovation and green transformation to enhance its social responsibility [6]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 238.87 billion, a decrease of 5.03% compared to 2023 [14] - The total profit amounted to CNY 3.66 billion, reflecting a growth of 7.05% year-on-year [15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 2.50 billion, down 12.14% from the previous year [14] - The net profit after excluding non-recurring items was CNY 972.27 million, a decline of 26.42% [14] Market Insights - The decline in profits in the kitchen food retail channel was influenced by the prices of rice and wheat, despite a positive impact from falling soybean prices [2][3] - The company anticipates improved performance across various segments in 2025, driven by increased consumer confidence in the Chinese economy [3] Business Development - The central kitchen business is progressing well, with plans for further investment as the domestic economy improves [3][11] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, including health-oriented products like DAG oil and low GI products, which are expected to perform well in the market [3][11] Distribution and Sales Channels - The number of distributors increased by approximately 8% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing channel expansion efforts [3] - The company is leveraging both traditional and new retail channels, including e-commerce and social commerce, to enhance market penetration [7][8] Financial Ratios and Cash Flow - As of December 31, 2024, the total assets were CNY 225.06 billion, down 5.64% from the previous year [18] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 66.53% to CNY 4.99 billion [19] - The current ratio improved slightly to 1.18, while the quick ratio decreased to 0.72 [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in operating margins, with a continuous optimization of gross profit margins. In 2024, total operating revenue was 238.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of falling product prices outweighing sales growth. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.50 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 0.97 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year [5] - The company is experiencing an increase in sales volume for its main products, with ample incremental channel space. In 2024, revenue from kitchen foods was 145.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with sales volume of 24.07 million tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year. The company is focusing on high-end product development and expanding into the health sector to diversify its business [6] - The company is expected to recover further as raw material and end-product prices stabilize. The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.52, 0.65, and 0.84 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 62, 50, and 38 times [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total operating revenue was 63.41 billion yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.07 billion yuan, up 49% year-on-year. The improvement was mainly due to better performance in the flour business and enhanced product profitability from the feed raw materials and oil technology industry chain [5] Sales and Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its wholesale distribution channels and has established a dedicated team to tap into lower-tier markets. Additionally, rice oil products are being gradually introduced into overseas markets such as the US, Canada, and Japan, which is expected to contribute to performance growth [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to see steady sales volume growth despite short-term revenue pressure from raw material cost fluctuations. The anticipated revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 7.3%, 8.0%, and 9.4%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 12.4%, 24.6%, and 29.4% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in operating margins, with a continuous optimization of gross profit margins. In 2024, total operating revenue was 238.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, primarily due to falling product prices outweighing sales growth. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.50 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 0.97 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year [5][8] - The company's main product sales have increased, with ample incremental channel space. In 2024, the revenue from kitchen foods was 145.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with sales volume at 24.07 million tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year. The company is focusing on high-end product development and expanding into the health sector to diversify its business [6][8] - The company is expected to recover further as market demand improves and raw material and end-product prices stabilize. The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.52, 0.65, and 0.84 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 62, 50, and 38 times [8][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total operating revenue was 63.41 billion yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.07 billion yuan, up 49% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 0.73 billion yuan, up 78% year-on-year, mainly due to improved performance in the flour business and enhanced product profitability from the feed raw materials and oil technology industry chain [5][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 256.33 billion yuan in 2025, 276.85 billion yuan in 2026, and 302.89 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 7.3%, 8.0%, and 9.4%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.81 billion yuan in 2025, 3.50 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.53 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 12.4%, 24.6%, and 29.4%, respectively [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to falling product prices despite an increase in sales volume for certain products [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 238.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.50 billion yuan, down 12.14% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to a drop in prices of key products like soybean and soybean oil, which outweighed the revenue contribution from increased sales volume [1]. Product Price Fluctuations - The gross margin for the company's two main businesses saw a slight increase, but the revenue from the feed raw materials and oil technology business, which accounts for about 40% of total revenue, decreased significantly by 10.37%, amounting to a reduction of 10.61 billion yuan [1][2]. - Despite a 10.32% increase in sales volume for feed raw materials, the profitability of the feed raw materials industry was squeezed due to weak domestic soybean prices and cautious purchasing by downstream feed and livestock enterprises [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The kitchen food business, which includes rice, flour, and oil, experienced a rise in sales volume but a slight decline in profit due to underperformance in retail channels and increased competition [2]. - The flour business faced losses in the first half of 2024 due to lower-than-expected market demand and fluctuating by-product prices, although the company expects improvement in the second half of the year [2]. Investment Projects and Future Strategy - The company has 81 production bases and is constructing new ones in strategic locations to reduce costs, but 10 investment projects have not met expected returns due to market demand and competition challenges [3]. - The company remains committed to its long-term development strategy in China, focusing on expanding its food and agricultural product businesses and reducing production, logistics, and marketing costs [3][4]. Innovation and R&D - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which grew by 2.41% to 274 million yuan, focusing on upgrading plant protein and grain product applications, as well as key technologies in condiments [4]. - Plans for 2025 include developing more functional and high-quality food products in response to consumer demand for healthier and diversified edible oils [4].