（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 2月2日，湖南裕能在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司高度重视与客户关系的维 护，并全力满足客户需求，与客户保持了良好、稳定的合作关系，产品销量屡创新高。目前，公司与客 户的业务合作主要基于商务谈判展开，并根据需求签署相关订单，以形成较为动态的定价机制。产品价 格方面，主要是基于公司产品供不应求的市场情况，尤其是新产品系列供需矛盾突出，以及部分原材料 价格上涨带来的压力，公司与客户积极开展了商务谈判，并取得较好的效果。 ...

（编辑 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 2月2日，湖南裕能在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，在公司产品价格方面，主要是基 于公司产品供不应求的市场情况，尤其是新产品系列供需矛盾突出，以及部分原材料价格上涨带来的压 力，公司与客户积极开展了商务谈判，并取得较好的效果。公司已披露《2025年度业绩预告》，盈利情 况与去年同期相比实现了大幅提升。 ...

证券日报网讯 2月2日，湖南裕能在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，近年来公司在不断推进"资源-前 驱体-正极材料-循环回收"一体化布局。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In February 2026, a total of 111 companies in the A-share market will face the unlocking of restricted shares, with a total unlocking volume of approximately 12.902 billion shares and an unlocking scale of 233.584 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month decrease of about 21.32% and a year-on-year decrease of about 50.63% [1][3]. Group 1: Unlocking Scale and Key Companies - The largest unlocking scale is attributed to Xinda Securities, with an unlocking market value exceeding 40 billion yuan [1][3]. - Five stocks will have an unlocking market value exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Xinda Securities, Hunan YN, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals leading the list [3][4]. - Xinda Securities will unlock 2.5514 billion shares on February 2, with an unlocking market value of approximately 44.93 billion yuan, accounting for 78.67% of its total share capital [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - The industries with the highest unlocking market values are non-bank financials, electronics, and power equipment [1][9]. - In the non-bank financial sector, Xinda Securities has a significant unlocking scale, while in the electronics sector, Zhongwei Semiconductor has a notable unlocking scale [9][10]. Group 3: Additional Notable Unlockings - Hunan YN will unlock 374 million shares on February 9, with an unlocking market value of approximately 24.179 billion yuan, accounting for 49.13% of its total share capital [7][9]. - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals will have an unlocking volume of 357 million shares, representing 56.47% of its total share capital, with an unlocking market value of approximately 22.47 billion yuan [7][9]. - Honghai Technology will have its anniversary unlocking in February, with an unlocking volume of approximately 137 million shares and a market value of about 1.955 billion yuan [9][10].

Core Insights - The lithium battery core material shipment volume is expected to achieve year-on-year growth by 2025, with a clear concentration of leading companies in the industry [2] - The lithium material industry is entering a new phase of value competition by 2026, with a focus on technological innovation and supply chain resilience [7] Positive Electrode Materials - Lithium Iron Phosphate - In 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate positive electrode material shipment volume reached 3.944 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 62.5%, accounting for 79.1% of the total positive electrode material shipment volume [3] - The top ten companies in this segment include Hunan YN, Wanrun Energy, and Defang Nano, with Hunan YN leading with over 1 million tons and a market share of approximately 29.8%-30% [3] Positive Electrode Materials - NCM - In 2025, China's NCM material shipment volume reached 786,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [4] - The leading companies in this segment are Nantong Ruixiang, Tianjin Bamo, and Rongzhi Technology, with Nantong Ruixiang achieving nearly 200,000 tons in shipments [4] Negative Electrode Materials - In 2025, China's negative electrode material shipment volume reached 2.922 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.1% [5] - The top three companies, including Better Energy, Shanghai Shanshan, and Zhongke Xingcheng, collectively hold a market share of 50.9% [5] Electrolytes - In 2025, global lithium-ion battery electrolyte shipment volume grew by 44.5% to 2.402 million tons, with China's actual shipment volume reaching 2.235 million tons, accounting for 93.05% of the global market [6] - The leading companies in this segment include Tianci Materials and BYD, with Tianci Materials achieving a shipment volume of 720,000 tons and a market share of 32.2% [6] Separators - In 2025, China's lithium-ion battery separator total shipment volume reached 32.85 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% [7] - The top companies in this segment include Shanghai Enjie and Hebei Jinli, with Shanghai Enjie achieving nearly 10 billion square meters in shipments and a market share exceeding 30% [7] Industry Outlook for 2026 - By 2026, global lithium-ion battery shipment volume is expected to reach 3,016.3 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% [7] - The industry is anticipated to see intensified competition among leading companies and accelerated exit of weaker players, driven by the expansion of the energy storage market and growth in new energy vehicle exports [7]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a strong recovery driven by explosive downstream demand, with a significant focus on long-term contracts between battery manufacturers and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) suppliers, indicating a shift towards value competition in the industry [3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total disclosed sales contracts for lithium iron phosphate have reached 9.3694 million tons since last year, with many contracts extending to 2030 or beyond [3][6]. - Major contracts include a 305,000-ton agreement between CATL and Rongbai Technology, estimated at 120 billion yuan, highlighting the trend of long-term supply agreements [8]. - The industry is witnessing a structural imbalance, with severe overcapacity in low-end products while high-end products remain in short supply [4][18]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - CATL has emerged as the largest buyer, signing contracts for over 7.5306 million tons of lithium iron phosphate since 2025, indicating a strong market position [8]. - Chuangneng New Energy has also made significant strides, securing a 130,000-ton order from Longpan Technology, making it the second-largest buyer after CATL [9]. - Hunan Youneng, previously a leading player, has not disclosed any long-term contracts recently, raising questions about its competitive strategy amidst the ongoing contract frenzy [10][12]. Group 3: Product Development and Innovation - The focus of long-term contracts is shifting towards high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate products, which offer advantages in energy density and cycle life [15][16]. - The fourth-generation high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate is expected to enhance battery performance significantly, with a projected energy density increase of 15%-20% compared to third-generation products [16]. - Companies like CATL and BYD are actively developing high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate technologies to maintain competitive advantages in the market [17][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global demand for lithium batteries is projected to grow significantly, with an expected increase in output from 186 GWh in 2020 to 3,540 GWh by 2030, indicating robust market growth [9]. - The industry is entering a new phase of expansion, with multiple companies announcing plans to increase production capacity for high-end lithium iron phosphate products [19]. - The competition for high-end lithium iron phosphate is intensifying, with companies needing to keep pace with rapid product iterations from battery manufacturers to avoid being left behind [19].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to reach a performance turning point in 2025, with many companies reporting improved earnings due to rising prices of key lithium materials and sustained demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Among 28 lithium battery companies that disclosed earnings forecasts, 11 are expected to see profit increases, and 6 are projected to turn losses into profits, indicating a recovery in the lithium battery materials sector [2]. - Key players in lithium materials, such as lithium carbonate and hexafluorophosphate, have reported significant quarter-on-quarter earnings growth, driven by price increases and ongoing demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown a "V-shaped" recovery, rising from 73,000 yuan/ton to approximately 120,000 yuan/ton, with peaks reaching around 134,000 yuan/ton by the end of 2025 [4]. - The increase in lithium carbonate prices has significantly improved the profitability of lithium salt companies, with major firms like Ganfeng Lithium and Yahua Group reporting substantial profit increases [4][5]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Ganfeng Lithium is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with projected net profits ranging from 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in the previous year [4]. - Yahua Group anticipates a net profit of 600 million to 680 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 133.36% to 164.47% [4]. - Tianqi Lithium and other suppliers are also expected to report significant profit increases due to rising prices of hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate [5]. Group 4: Market Demand and Future Outlook - The demand for energy storage and electric vehicles remains strong, with global energy storage battery shipments expected to reach 640 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 82.9% [6]. - The continuation of domestic vehicle replacement policies and the resumption of electric vehicle purchase subsidies in Germany are expected to further boost demand [6]. - Analysts suggest that as long as the demand for new energy remains strong, the prices of key upstream products like lithium carbonate are likely to continue rising, leading to a new cycle of prosperity in the industry [7].

锂电新周期来了？ 具体来看，龙头股盐湖股份（000792.SZ）、雅化集团（002497.SZ）业绩预增，赣锋锂业 （002460.SZ）预计实现扭亏。盐湖股份预告归母净利润82.9亿元至88.9亿元，同比大增77.78%至 90.65%，其业绩增长的核心驱动力均指向两大主要产品氯化钾和碳酸锂的价格上升。 锂盐龙头赣锋锂业预计2025年实现扭亏，归母净利润达11亿元至16.5亿元，上年同期为亏损20.74亿元。 雅化集团业绩预喜，公司预计2025年归母净利润为6亿元至6.80亿元，同比增长133.36%~164.47%。华友 钴业（603799.SH）预计实现归母净利润58.5亿元至64.5亿元，同比增长40.8%至55.24%。 2025年锂电产业链迎来业绩拐点。据第一财经记者不完全统计，28家已披露业绩预告的锂电企业中，11 家预增，6家扭亏，其余为续亏和首亏。锂盐、碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂等关键锂电材料环节的龙头企业， 普遍在去年第四季度实现业绩环比大增，主要系核心产品价格上涨叠加新能源汽车与储能需求保持增 长。 过去几年，锂电材料行业经历了跌价去库存的周期底部，企业盈利能力大幅回暖，表明锂电周期已步入 复苏 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The focus is on the battery materials industry, particularly related to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and the broader electric vehicle (EV) market - The analysis includes the impact of rising costs on battery manufacturers and the implications for downstream demand, especially in energy storage systems (ESS) [1][2][9] Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Trends**: LFP battery cell prices have increased by 8%, while battery costs have surged by 30%, leading to a squeeze in battery margins [1] - **Cost Inflation**: Lithium prices have risen by 46% year-to-date, contributing to an estimated cost inflation of Rmb32/kWh for batteries. The total LFP battery cost has increased by Rmb80/kWh, which may test demand in the coming months [2][11] - **Demand Forecasts**: Battery production guidance from major manufacturers like CATL suggests a growth of 50-70% by 2026, which has raised expectations for raw material demand [3][21] - **Market Dynamics**: The recent surge in costs has shifted the market from a demand-pull to a cost-push scenario, with concerns about EV sales weakness impacting performance [1][9] - **Cost Pass-Through Mechanisms**: Battery manufacturers have mechanisms to pass on metal-linked cost increases to downstream customers, but non-metal cost increases may not be fully passed through [20] Important but Overlooked Aspects - **Investment in Upstream**: Companies like CATL and Gotion are investing in upstream lithium resources to mitigate the impact of rising raw material costs. CATL's self-sufficiency ratio for lithium is expected to be 18% by 2025 [17][18] - **Profit Distribution**: The profit distribution along the battery supply chain is shifting, with downstream manufacturers currently capturing more profit. However, this may change as the market matures and supply chain efficiencies improve [35] - **Policy Impacts**: Changes in Chinese government policy, including export controls and a focus on price recovery, may influence the battery market dynamics and cost structures in 2026 [36] Financial Metrics and Projections - **Battery Demand Growth**: The forecast for total battery demand is projected to grow significantly, with EV battery demand expected to reach 2,096 GWh by 2026, reflecting a 30% year-over-year growth [23] - **ESS Demand**: ESS battery demand is also expected to grow, with projections of 894.5 GWh by 2026, indicating a robust market for energy storage solutions [26] Conclusion - The battery materials industry is facing significant challenges due to rising costs and potential demand weaknesses. However, strategic investments in upstream resources and favorable production guidance from major manufacturers present opportunities for growth. The evolving landscape of profit distribution and policy impacts will be critical to monitor as the market develops.

转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要上市公司：湖南裕能(SZ 301358)、德方纳米(SZ 300769)、万润新能源(SH 688275)等; 本文核心数据：中国锂电池正极材料行业市场规模 2024年中国锂电池正极材料行业市场规模约2000亿元 锂离子电池的定义是利用锂离子作为导电离子，在正极和负极之间移动，通过化学能和电能相互转化实 现充放电的电池。锂离子正极材料是电池中用于储存和释放锂离子的关键组成部分，主要负责在充放电 过程中提供锂离子并接收电子。中国锂离子电池正极材料始于20世纪90年代，初期依赖进口钴酸锂 (LCO) 满足消费电子需求。2001年盟固利实现正极材料国产化突破，2008年比亚迪推动磷酸铁锂 在动 力电池商用，同期锰酸锂逐步应用。2010年后三元材料快速崛起，2015年起高镍化与LFP技术迭代并 行，随后伴随着中国新能源与新能源汽车市场的快速发展，中国锂离子电池正极材料产能、需求与技术 快速发展并实现全球领先，覆盖全材料体系并主导全球市场供应。2024年中国锂电池正极材料行业市场 规模约2000亿元，近五年行业复合增速29.40%。 | 企业名称 | 所属省份 | 布局情况 | | --- ...