专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报 作者：马丁・皮尔斯 通常，英伟达的财报会是本周最受期待的，但这次情况可能不同。市场对 AI 将 "摧毁" 软件行业的担 忧，已导致今年以来软件股暴跌20% 至 30%（网络安全股上周五也遭遇重挫）。毫无疑问，这些恐慌 有些过度。毕竟，成熟企业在现有客户关系上拥有巨大优势，客户很难轻易弃用。正如 Lead Edge Capital 合伙人埃文・斯科彭上周五接受《The Information》TITV 采访时所说："如果你问大企 业：'嘿，你们能用更便宜的替代品替换掉 Workday 吗？'他们根本没兴趣。" 他指出，软件在大企业运 营支出中占比极小，大企业 "绝不会去尝试那些花里胡哨的解决方案"。 此外，老牌软件公司大多已将新的 AI 工具融入自身产品。坦白说，企业全面采用这些工具至少还需要 几年时间，因此当前的季度财报只能让我们管中窥豹，其影响程度也各不相同。 在关注本周即将到来的大事之前，我们先来聊聊一家将 "魔幻思维" 发挥到极致的公司 ——OpenAI。我 们在上周五晚间报道了该公司最新的长期营收与利润预测。报告中最关键的信息是：2025 年，OpenAI 的 A ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming financial reports from Nvidia and Salesforce are anticipated to provide critical insights into the current state of the AI revolution and its implications for the stock market, particularly for SaaS stocks and AI-related technologies [2][13]. Nvidia - Nvidia has experienced a remarkable stock increase of 1,200% since early 2023, driven by the demand for its GPUs, which are essential for running AI models in data centers [4]. - The company's third-quarter revenue reached $57 billion, marking a 62% year-over-year increase and a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase, with diluted EPS rising 67% to $1.30 [5]. - Nvidia's management forecasts record revenue of $65 billion for Q4, representing a 65% growth, with adjusted EPS expected to be $1.45, an increase of 63% [5]. - Nvidia constitutes approximately 7.4% of the S&P 500, indicating that its performance can significantly influence the index's movement [6]. Salesforce - Salesforce's stock has declined by 30% since the start of 2026 due to fears that advancements in AI could diminish demand for its SaaS offerings [8]. - For its fiscal 2026 third quarter, Salesforce reported revenue of $10.3 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, and EPS of $2.20, up 38% [9]. - The company's remaining performance obligation (RPO) grew 12% to $59.5 billion, suggesting strong future demand as RPO growth outpaces revenue growth [9]. - Salesforce is forecasting Q4 revenue of $11.2 billion, indicating an 11% growth, although heavy investments in AI-related tools are expected to reduce EPS by 15% [10]. - Despite its small weighting of 0.28% in the S&P 500, Salesforce's results are viewed as a bellwether for the overall SaaS market [11]. Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing concern among investors regarding the potential decline of SaaS stocks due to AI advancements, termed the "SaaSpocalyse" [8]. - However, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang suggests that fears of AI replacing existing software solutions may be exaggerated, arguing that AI will likely enhance rather than replace current software offerings [14].

Software stocks are sliding. As of Feb. 19, Microsoft stock is down 28% from its all-time high of last fall. Oracle stock is down 55% from its record high, also in late 2025. Salesforce stock has lost 27% of its value this year. Analysts offer competing, somewhat contradictory theories about the software selloff. By one account, stock traders fear artificial intelligence will put software companies out of business by rendering their products obsolete. Another narrative suggests software firms have oversp ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and AI Impact - Investors are increasingly viewing artificial intelligence (AI) as a double-edged sword rather than a guaranteed solution for enhancing earnings across industries [1] - Software stocks have experienced significant sell-offs as analysts adjust growth expectations, raising concerns that AI tools may replace the need for various applications [1] - The decrease in earnings multiples investors are willing to pay for software reflects growing uncertainty about future earnings growth [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The recent sell-off in the software sector may present attractive opportunities for long-term investors, with two stocks identified as having strong competitive positions [2] - Analysts project potential upside of up to 100% for certain stocks based on median price targets on Wall Street [2] Group 3: Intuit's Business Overview - Intuit is recognized for its TurboTax and QuickBooks software, along with Credit Karma and Mailchimp [5] - Management anticipates revenue growth of 14% to 15% this year, driven by the development of an online ecosystem that integrates various software features [6] - The online ecosystem accounted for 80% of Intuit's business segment last quarter, with a year-over-year growth of 21% [6] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - Intuit's land-and-expand strategy is expected to strengthen its competitive position, as switching costs for small businesses are high [7] - The retention rate for Intuit's SaaS business is influenced more by the high failure rate of small businesses than by product performance [8] - Integration of popular consumer brands like TurboTax and Credit Karma aims to enhance customer retention and expand revenue [9]

Core Insights - AI disruption fears are impacting market performance, with some analysts considering these fears to be overblown [1] - Dan Ies from Wed Bush has outlined ten factors that could halt the tech sector's decline, referring to the current market conditions as the "AI ghost trade overhang" [1] Company Developments - OpenAI is expected to raise $100 billion in its next funding round, which could positively influence market sentiment [2] - Nvidia is anticipated to report strong demand in its upcoming earnings report, which is a key event for the market [3] - Oracle has successfully raised capital, alleviating concerns regarding its debt-to-equity ratio [2] - Salesforce, which has faced a decline, is expected to deliver positive earnings next week [2] Market Trends - The tech sector has seen significant capital expenditure commitments, totaling approximately $650 billion from four major hyperscalers [3] - The upcoming week will see earnings reports from about 56 companies in the S&P 500, with a focus on software firms following recent selloffs [5] - Consumer names such as Home Depot, TJX, and Lowe's are also highlighted as important for the upcoming week [5] Geopolitical Factors - Markets are closely monitoring the implications of tariffs and the legal aspects of recent announcements [6] - Tensions in the Middle East are also a point of concern for market participants [6]

Group 1 - Salesforce Incorporated (NYSE:CRM) is identified as one of the 12 oversold software stocks to invest in, with a maintained Outperform rating and a revised price target of $280, indicating a potential upside of approximately 48% [1] - Mizuho Securities has revised price targets across the enterprise software segment, citing fears of AI disruption leading to poor sentiment in the software market, but also highlighting attractive opportunities for patient investors [2] - A new agreement between Salesforce and the U.S. Army has been established, expanding access to additional Department of Defense users, which significantly increases the potential Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Salesforce [3] Group 2 - Salesforce is a cloud-based customer relationship management provider that utilizes AI-driven applications and tools to connect individuals and companies globally, offering services such as sales management, marketing, and analytics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings report from Salesforce (CRM) is anticipated to show a quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $3.03, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year, with revenues expected to reach $11.17 billion, marking an 11.7% year-over-year growth [1] Revenue Estimates - Analysts project 'Revenues- Professional services and other' to be $558.68 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [3] - The estimated 'Revenues- Subscription and support' is $10.60 billion, representing a 12.2% increase from the previous year [4] - 'Revenues- Subscription and support- Agentforce Service' is expected to reach $2.58 billion, showing a 10.7% year-over-year change [4] - 'Revenues- Subscription and support- Agentforce Marketing and Agentforce Commerce' is forecasted at $1.43 billion, suggesting a 5.6% increase year-over-year [5] - The consensus for 'Revenues- Subscription and support- Agentforce 360 Platform, Slack and Other' stands at $2.24 billion, indicating a 16.7% year-over-year growth [5] - 'Revenues- Subscription and support- Agentforce Integration and Agentforce Analytics' is projected to be $2.05 billion, reflecting a 19.3% increase from the prior year [6] Geographic Revenue Estimates - 'Geographic Revenue- Americas' is expected to be $8.25 billion, indicating a significant year-over-year increase of 23.9% [6] - 'Geographic Revenue- Asia Pacific' is forecasted to reach $1.06 billion, reflecting a 6.5% increase from the previous year [7] - 'Geographic Revenue- Europe' is projected at $1.86 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 20.4% [7] Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) - 'Remaining performance obligation (RPO) - Current' is estimated at $34.73 billion, up from $30.20 billion year-over-year [7] - 'Remaining performance obligation (RPO) - Total' is expected to be $72.61 billion, compared to $63.40 billion from the previous year [8] - 'Remaining performance obligation (RPO) - Noncurrent' is projected to reach $37.89 billion, up from $33.20 billion in the same quarter last year [8] Stock Performance - Salesforce shares have decreased by 18.8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 0.8%, but the company holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating expected outperformance in the near term [9]

Core Viewpoint - Salesforce (CRM) has experienced a significant decline of -18.8% in stock price over the past month, contrasting with the S&P 500's -0.8% change, raising questions about its near-term performance [2] Earnings Estimates Revisions - The current quarter's earnings estimate for Salesforce is projected at $3.03 per share, reflecting a +9% increase year-over-year, with the consensus estimate for the fiscal year at $11.76, indicating a +15.3% change [5] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate is $12.99, representing a +10.4% increase from the previous year [6] - The Zacks Rank for Salesforce is 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on earnings estimate revisions [7] Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $11.17 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of +11.7%, with estimates for the current and next fiscal years at $41.5 billion and $45.94 billion, indicating +9.5% and +10.7% changes respectively [11] Last Reported Results and Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Salesforce generated revenues of $10.26 billion, a +8.6% increase year-over-year, with an EPS of $3.25 compared to $2.41 a year ago [12] - The company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters and has exceeded revenue estimates twice during this period [13] Valuation - Salesforce has a Zacks Value Style Score of C, indicating it is trading at par with its peers, suggesting a fair valuation relative to its competitors [17]

Group 1 - Salesforce (CRM) is affected by the recent "SaaSpocalypse," which has been highlighted in the market due to significant sell-offs [1] - The term "SaaSpocalypse" gained traction on February 3rd and 4th, coinciding with a major market downturn triggered by external factors [1] Group 2 - The focus on sustained profitability is emphasized, highlighting the importance of strong margins, stable free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital as key drivers of returns [1] - The article reflects a long-term investment perspective, particularly in U.S. and European equities, with an emphasis on undervalued growth stocks and high-quality dividend growers [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by the technology sector due to fears surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on software companies, highlighting a significant capital expenditure of nearly $700 billion in AI for the year [1] Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - AI is perceived as a threat across all industries, particularly impacting the software sector, which is seen as the primary target [1] - The AI technology industry is at a critical juncture, necessitating leadership from major tech companies [1] Group 2: Key Drivers for AI Technology Growth - OpenAI has completed a $100 billion funding round, alleviating external concerns [2] - NVIDIA's CEO is expected to reaffirm the strong demand trajectory for AI chips, surpassing Wall Street expectations [2] - Oracle has achieved strong initial success in its $45 billion to $50 billion funding efforts [2] - Salesforce's earnings guidance indicates that AI monetization has begun [2] - Strategic and large-scale public software mergers and acquisitions are anticipated in the coming months [2] - Apple has launched the first phase of Siri AI, marking the beginning of consumer-level AI [2] - CrowdStrike is the first cybersecurity company to profit from AI, as reflected in its upcoming earnings report [2] - AI monetization is expected to be evident in Microsoft and ServiceNow's March performance [2] - Meta Platforms and Alphabet's Google are set to accelerate AI monetization in digital advertising by the first half of 2026 [3] - Companies are beginning to implement Anthropic's Claude, facing scalability and security challenges [3]