期货热点追踪 特朗普加税推动美国铝价飙升，力拓、嘉能可暗中受益？消费者最终会买单吗？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the zinc concentrate mining sector has largely materialized, with the treatment charge (TC) continuing to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue [3][50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge [3]. - The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term. In the short run, low inventory provides some support, but weak demand restricts upward movement. In the long run, with increased supply and limited demand growth, the zinc price may face pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In March 2025, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 23,700 tons. The first three months of 2025 saw a global supply surplus of 143,000 tons, slightly lower than the 148,000 tons surplus in the same period last year [12]. - In Q1 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 2.9021 million tons, a 9.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.99% increase year - on - year. Global refined zinc production was 3.278 million tons, a 2.32% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.55% decrease year - on - year [12]. 3.2 Glencore - Glencore's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93 - 990,000 tons, consistent with the initial expectation. Q1 production was 213,600 tons, a 18.29% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.89% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Antamina and the Australian region [19]. 3.3 Teck - Teck's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 525,000 - 575,000 tons. Q1 production was 177,300 tons, a 6.19% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14.08% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the Red Dog mine [22]. 3.4 Boliden - In Q1 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate production was 57,900 tons, a 38.95% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 45.78% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from the复产 of the Tara mine [24]. 3.5 Vedanta - In Q1 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate production was 264,000 tons, a 5.60% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 4.35% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Gamsberg, partially offset by the reduction at Black Mountain Mine [27]. 3.6 Nexa - Nexa's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 311,000 - 351,000 tons. Q1 production was 67,300 tons, an 8.44% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 22.82% decrease year - on - year. Except for Cerro Lindo, zinc production at other mines declined [31]. 3.7 MMG - MMG's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 215,000 - 240,000 tons. Q1 production was 51,800 tons, a 19.02% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 12.65% decrease year - on - year [37]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - Newmont's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 236,000 tons. Q1 production was 59,000 tons, a 23.38% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.42% increase year - on - year [38]. 3.9 BHP - BHP's fiscal 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 90,000 - 110,000 tons. Q1 production was 26,000 tons, a 14.19% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 41.38% increase year - on - year [40]. 3.10 Lundin Mining - In Q1 2025, Lundin Mining's zinc concentrate production was 48,900 tons, a 5.77% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 7.14% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.11 South32 - In Q1 2025, South32's zinc concentrate production was 11,000 tons, a 1.85% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23.08% decrease year - on - year. The production guidance for the Cannington mine in fiscal 2025 was lowered to 45,000 tons [43]. 3.12 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In Q1 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production was 39,400 tons, an 8.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 49.40% increase year - on - year. The full - load operation of the Buenavista zinc concentrator contributed to the increase [44]. 3.13 Industrials Pelones - In Q1 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate production was 57,700 tons, a 5.65% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 13.86% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the closure of the Tizapa mine and the depletion of the San Julian mine [45]. 3.14 Fresnillo plc - Fresnillo plc's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93,000 - 103,000 tons. Q1 production was 25,200 tons, a 12.79% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.47% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from lower ore grades at Fresnillo and Cienega and the shutdown of the San Julian mine [47]. 3.15 Kaz Mineral - In Q1 2025, Kaz Mineral's zinc concentrate production was 9,300 tons, a 19.13% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 11.43% decrease year - on - year, despite the highest quarterly throughput of ore [50]. 3.16 Market Outlook - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the mining sector has materialized, and the TC continues to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue. The TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates has increased [50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge. The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View -中美互征关税缓和引导抢出口预期，国内电解铜社会库存量处于低位，但传统消费淡季来临，或使沪铜价格涨跌两难，建议投资者短线轻仓逢低试多主力合约，关注74600 - 76600附近支撑位及78500 - 80000附近压力位，伦铜在9000 - 9800附近支撑位及9600 - 9800附近压力位，美铜在4.3 - 4.5附近支撑位及5.0 - 5.5附近压力位 [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - 美国7月到期以短期为主国债规模分别为1.28 - 1.46万亿美元，美债集中到期或引发流动性冲击；5月ISM制造业PMI为49.5，低于预期和前值，因特朗普政府不确定的关税政策引发消费端通胀反弹担忧，使美联储降息预期时点仍在9/12月 [3][4] Upstream - 紫金矿业旗下莫阿·卡库拉铜矿5月28日因矿震暂停地下深矿；印尼自由港麦克莫兰公司8月17日被准许6个月内出口127万吨铜精矿但将被征收更高出口税；铜陵有色位于厄瓜多尔拉铁拉多铜矿二期6万吨产能或于26年下半年投产；巨龙铜矿新扩建二期200万吨/日扩建工程或于25年底投产；ACC Metals的硫化铜矿扩建项目将于2026年一季度投产，初期年产量为2.5万吨；国内6月铜精矿生产（进口）量环比或有增减，中国铜精矿进口指数为负且较上周升高；国内废铜进口窗口打开，但欧洲高品质废铜被限制出口，中国进口商仅能采购铜米或黄铜，中美贸易争端影响使贸易商尚未恢复直接进口美国废铜，国内电解铜与光亮及老化废铜价差为负或削弱废铜经济性，国内废铜6月生产（进口）量环比或减少；嘉能可位于菲律宾的PASAR铜冶炼厂已停产，位于智利的阿尔托诺特冶炼厂35万吨阳极铜产能因冶炼烧炉问题暂停生产至6月，紫金3.anov = Ikabul冶炼厂或于25年6月建成投产，年产60万吨阴极铜；国内6月粗铜检修产能或环比减少，国内6月粗铜生产量（进口量）环比或增加（减少）；江铜云源二期年产15万吨阴极铜项目3月底开工建设，建成后将实现26万吨产能，国内6月电解铜生产量环比或增加；印尼自由港旗下曼迪坎扬48万吨产能将于6月下旬恢复生产且12月达到满负荷生产，日本住友金属矿业计划10月对印尼冶炼厂进行为期6周检验，国内6月电解铜进口量环比或减少；进口窗口关闭限制国内电解铜进口量，中国保税区电解铜库存量较上周减少；中国电解铜社会库存量较上周减少；伦金所电解铜库存量较上周减少；国际部分贸易商仍在向美国港口运输约60万吨铜，使COMEX铜库存量较上周增加 [4] Downstream - 中国精铜杆（再生铜杆）产能开工率较上周升高，精铜杆企业原料（成品）库存量较上周增加，再生铜杆企业原料（成品）库存量较上周增加；中国铜电线电缆产能开工率较上周下降，企业原料（成品）库存量较上周减少（增加）；中国铜漆包线单量（产能开工率）较上周减少（下降）；中国黄铜棒产能开工率较上周下降；中美互征关税缓和和传统消费淡季来临交织，国内6月钢材企业产能开工率（生产量、进口量、出口量）环比或下降（增加、增加、减少），具体而言，电解铜制厂、再生铜制厂、电生铜板、固废铜流通有限和成品库存等方面复产受限，反向影响到部分企业，如铜板带厂、铜电线电缆、铜漆包线、铜板市、铜箔、钢管、黄铜棒等产能开工率或环比下降 [4] Market Data - **沪铜期货活跃合约**：2025年5月30日收盘价77600元，较昨日变动 - 530元；成交量87403手，较昨日增加7250手；持仓量172994手，较昨日减少1763手；库存34128吨，较昨日增加1963吨；SMM 1电解铜平均价78235元，较昨日变动 - 250元 [2] - **沪铜基差或现货升贴水**：沪铜基差635元，较昨日变动280元；广州电解铜现货升贴水15元，较昨日变动 - 50元；华北电解铜现货升贴水 - 130元，较昨日变动0元；华东电解铜现货升贴水50元，较昨日变动5元 [2] - **价差（近月与远月）**：沪铜近月 - 沪铜连一为330元，较昨日变动60元；沪铜连一 - 沪铜连二为180元，较昨日变动 - 40元；沪铜连二 - 沪铜连一为200元，较昨日变动 - 10元 [2] - **伦敦铜**：LME3个月铜期货收盘价（电子盘）2025年6月2日为9615美元，较昨日变动118美元；LME铜期货0 - 3个月合约价差为51.49美元，较昨日变动1.41美元；LME铜期货3 - 15个月合约价差为105.01美元，较昨日变动10.76美元；沪伦铜价比值为8.0707，较昨日变动 - 0.10 [2] - **COMEX铜**：铜期货活跃合约收盘价2025年6月2日为4.858美元，较昨日变动0.19美元；总库存量182626吨，较昨日增加2125吨 [2]

矿业股领跌欧股，力拓跌2%，波兰铜业跌3%，Antofagasta跌2.7%，安赛乐米塔尔跌2.5%，嘉能可跌 2.5%，SSAB跌2.6%、Anglo American跌2.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has received approximately 15,000 tons of copper delivery requests, leading to the lowest inventory levels in a year [1] - Glencore is the main trader behind these delivery requests, planning to transport Russian copper to China [1] - The Chinese market is experiencing tightening supply, with premiums for certain grades of copper reaching the highest levels in over five years [1] Group 2 - The current supply constraints in copper are revealing deeper structural issues, alongside short-term trade policy impacts [3] - Short-term supply pressures are expected to increase, with copper demand showing non-linear fluctuations due to unstable economic expectations [3] - Long-term supply constraints remain valid, with copper mine supply facing timing issues rather than total volume problems [3] Group 3 - The incremental copper supply this year is expected to primarily come from the ramp-up of projects that began operations in 2024, with fewer new projects being launched [4] - The annual growth rate for copper mines in 2025 is projected to decrease from 2.4% to 1.8%, corresponding to an increase of 340,000 tons [5]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore is purchasing Russian copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) for shipment to China, highlighting supply tightness in the world's largest copper-consuming country [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The LME has seen approximately 15,000 tons of copper withdrawal requests over the past three trading days, leading to the lowest inventory levels in a year [1] - Glencore is identified as a key trader behind these withdrawal requests, indicating its significant role in the current copper market [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Glencore's copper smelting plant in Chile has resumed operations [1] Group 2 - The resumption of operations at the smelting plant is significant for the copper industry, potentially impacting supply and pricing dynamics [1] - This development may enhance Glencore's production capacity and operational efficiency in the region [1] - The copper market is closely monitored due to its importance in various sectors, including construction and electronics, making this news relevant for investors [1]

撰 文 / 周 洲 设 计 / 琚 佳 来 源 / 彭博社，路透社，金融时报，mining.com等 一场10年前的矿业并购案，现在又浮上水面。 2014年，全球最大的大宗商品交易商瑞士嘉能可公司 (Glencore Plc) 提出与全球第二大矿业巨头力 拓集团 (Rio Tinto Group) 合并，但力拓在几天后就拒绝了。 最近的传闻是，2024年下半年，两家公司花了几个月的时间进行谈判。 这表明，在大型并购热潮席卷全球采矿业之际，形势发生了变化。 2014 年，当嘉能可发出要约之后，力拓马上就坚决拒绝了一项原本有望成为全球矿业史上最大的 交易，由此引发了长达数月的公开争执，也暴露了两家公司巨大的文化差异。嘉能可彼时的CEO伊 万·格拉森伯格（Ivan Glasenberg） 指责力拓误判了铁矿石市场，而力拓则批评嘉能可是短视者。 2024年，当嘉能可提出交易时，却遇到了截然不同的反应。 这一次，力拓愿意谈判。 据知情人士透露，这场从去年秋季开始的数月磋商，双方只有少部分高管参与，有力拓首席执行官 石道成 (Jakob Stausholm) 和嘉能可CEO加里·纳格尔 (Gary Nagle) ，一些知 ...

据知情人士透露，力拓和嘉能可最近举行了会谈。 财联社1月17日电，力拓股价在悉尼市场一度下跌1.8%，此前报道称这家全球第二大矿业巨头与嘉能可 就潜在合并事宜进行了初步磋商。 目前尚不清楚谈判是否仍在进行中。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for H1 2024 was $6.3 billion, with industrial EBITDA at $4.5 billion, down from the previous year due to lower coal prices and reduced realizations in cobalt and nickel [5][6] - Marketing EBIT was $1.5 billion, annualizing to $3 billion, which is at the top end of the guidance range of $2.2 to $3.2 billion [7] - Net debt decreased to $3.6 billion, with net funding reduced by $1.7 billion to $29.4 billion [15] - Free cash flow generation was strong, with $4 billion from operations and $2.9 billion in net CapEx cash flow [34] Business Line Performance - Coal earnings were significantly impacted by lower pricing, particularly in thermal coal, contributing to a $2.6 billion reduction in energy and steelmaking coal EBITDA [16] - Copper and zinc custom smelting businesses saw lower contributions due to historically low TCRCs, with copper down $180M and zinc down $107M [17] - Zinc production saw positive volume growth, particularly from the Zhairem ramp-up, while coal volumes were modestly negative due to infrastructure challenges [20] Market Performance - Newcastle coal prices have normalized but remain strong, with prices picking up post-H1 2024 [5] - Cobalt and nickel markets are oversupplied, leading to lower realizations and netbacks, with nickel prices down 28% [19] - Copper prices were up period-on-period, but cobalt and zinc prices were down, impacting overall earnings [19] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company decided to retain its coal and carbon steel materials business, citing shareholder support and ESG considerations [8] - Significant investments are being made in copper projects, particularly in Argentina, with plans to bring an additional 1 million tonnes of copper to market as needed [9][47] - The acquisition of EVR adds a Tier 1, low-cost, high-quality asset, contributing to growth in copper equivalents and steelmaking coal [11][47] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the strong performance of the marketing business, particularly in metals, despite energy price normalization [7] - The company remains committed to its climate action transition plan, with over 90% shareholder support [8] - Management expressed confidence in the copper market's long-term demand, driven by decarbonization and infrastructure needs [77][78] Other Important Information - The company reported three fatalities in H1 2024 and is doubling down on safety efforts [10] - The resolution of government investigations and the completion of one year with independent compliance monitors were noted as positive developments [10] - The company is spending $400 million on copper development projects in Argentina and North America, with additional CapEx expected for EVR integration [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Marketing EBIT Guidance and EVR Integration - The company expects marketing synergies from EVR integration, with potential upside to the $2.2 to $3.2 billion guidance range [55][56] Question: Net Debt Target and Capital Returns - The $10 billion net debt target remains firm, with potential for upward revision as copper units and cash flow capacity increase [57][58] Question: M&A vs Capital Returns - The company remains open to M&A but will prioritize capital discipline and shareholder returns, including buybacks and dividends [61][62] Question: Viterra Disposal and Equity Treatment - The equity portion of the Viterra disposal may be treated differently, with potential for offsetting against acquisitions or distributions [63][64] Question: Marketing CapEx and Leases - Marketing CapEx in H1 2024 was $600 million, primarily related to leases [65] Question: Argentina Projects and Battery Metals Theme - The company is optimistic about Argentina's political and economic stability, with significant investments in MARA and El Pachon copper projects [71][72] - The battery metals theme remains under pressure, but the company sees long-term demand for copper, cobalt, and nickel, despite current oversupply [74][75][76] Question: South African Thermal Coal Assets - Logistical constraints in South Africa are improving, with Transnet performance showing green shoots [81] Question: MARA and El Pachon Syndication - The company is unlikely to syndicate MARA but remains open to partnerships for El Pachon [83][84] Question: EVR Capitalization and Production Outlook - EVR assets are sufficiently capitalized, with ongoing investments in waste stripping and new mining areas [95][96] Question: Operational Performance and Koniambo Care and Maintenance - Operational performance in H1 2024 was impacted by abnormal events, but recovery is expected in H2, particularly in Africa and Kazakhstan [99][100] - Koniambo care and maintenance expenses are expected to decrease, with ongoing costs in the low double digits [101] Question: Copper Market Tightness and Price Outlook - Copper supply remains constrained, with demand in China holding up, particularly in grid spending and renewables [104][105] Question: Primary Listing and Smelting Business - The company remains committed to its London listing but will continually assess the best exchange for its shareholders [109][110] - The custom smelting business may face challenges if low TC/RCs persist, with potential for smelter shutdowns [108]