Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation is rising, there's an expectation of a shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper shows an initial decline, which may lead to a relatively strong performance of Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors lightly go long on the main contract on dips, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. Summary by Relevant Data Shanghai Copper Futures Data (2025 - 08 - 28) - Closing price: 78,930, down 260 from the previous day [2] - Trading volume: 73,403 lots, an increase of 15,585 lots from the previous day [2] - Open interest: 168,997 lots, a decrease of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] - Inventory: 21,232 tons, down 55 tons from the previous day [2] - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price: 79,616, down 355 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai copper basis: 260, down 95 from the previous day [2] Other Price and Spread Data - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price: 9,818, up 62.5 from the previous day [2] - Total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory: 0, a decrease of 157,950 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread: - 82.79, up 7.14 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread: - 167.53, up 2.04 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai - London copper price ratio: 8.0393, down 0.08 from the previous day [2] - COMEX 9 copper futures active contract closing price: 4.5445, down 0.0025 from the previous day [2] - Total inventory weight: 275,226 tons, an increase of 3,121 tons from the previous day [2] Industry News - Hudbay Minerals restarted the operation of its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba on August 22 [2] - European high - quality copper exports are restricted, and Sino - US tariff negotiation uncertainty affects scrap copper imports. Domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the scrap copper import window is closed. Some copper smelters are shut down or have production cuts, while some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production [2] - The weekly processing fee of crude copper in northern (southern) China remains flat (decreases), and the operating rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plate capacity decreases compared with last week. Domestic smelters' crude copper maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, and the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August may increase [2] - Some domestic electrolytic copper production projects are planned to be put into production in the future, and some overseas copper smelters have maintenance or production - cut situations. African agricultural exports delay ship bookings, which may lead to a decrease in domestic electrolytic copper imports in August. The import window opening may increase imports, and the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper increases [2]

Codelco是全球最大的铜矿商。 与此同时，必和必拓（BHP）旗下全球最大铜矿Escondida矿6月铜产量下滑33%至76,400吨。 6月份，英美资源（Anglo American）和嘉能可（Glencore）联合经营的大型Collahuasi铜矿产量同比下降29%，至34,300吨。 （文华综合） 8月11日（周一），智利铜业委员会Cochilco公布的数据显示，智利国有矿产商--Codelco公司6月铜产量同比增长17%，攀升至120,200吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has abandoned its plan to relocate its primary listing from the London Stock Exchange to the United States, primarily because the move would not enhance the company's valuation and it faces challenges in qualifying for the S&P 500 index [1][3]. Group 1: Company Decision - Glencore's headquarters is in Switzerland, and its registered office is in Jersey, UK, which disqualifies it from entering the S&P 500 index as per the index's requirements [3]. - The inability to enter the S&P 500 means Glencore would miss out on passive investment from index-tracking funds, undermining the rationale for relocating to the U.S. to boost its valuation [3]. Group 2: Market Context - The London Stock Exchange is currently experiencing a significant listing drought, with only a handful of IPOs expected in 2024, while over 40 companies are set to delist due to mergers [3]. - Despite Glencore's decision to remain in the UK, analysts suggest this is not due to an increase in London's attractiveness but rather Glencore's insufficient conditions for a successful move [3]. Group 3: Industry Performance - London remains a hub for large mining companies, with four out of the five major diversified mining companies listed there, excluding Brazil's Vale [3]. - Glencore is facing valuation pressures, particularly as its coal business profits have declined due to low prices, with its stock price dropping nearly 50% from its peak in early 2023, underperforming compared to peers [3].

首席执行官Gary Nagle表示："尽管地缘政治和贸易在短期内存在诸多不确定性，但我们仍认为，在某些大宗商品领域，所需资源开发的规模和速度将难以 满足未来对这些材料的需求预测。" "我们有能力参与填补这一缺口，"Nagle表示。 8月6日（周三），全球矿业巨头兼贸易商嘉能可（Glencore）公布，受煤炭价格走弱、铜产量下降及部分矿山运营面临挑战影响，公司上半年经调整核心利 润同比下降14%。 该公司曾考虑将主要上市地从伦敦转移，但表示将保留在英国的上市，称转移至美国不会为股东带来额外价值。 嘉能可调整后息税折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）在上半年降至54.3亿美元，较去年同期的63.4亿美元有所下降。 上周，该公司宣布计划到2026年底实现10亿美元的成本节约，作为对其工业资产审查的一部分，此前铜产量下降了26%。 嘉能可表示，其2025年宣布的总股东回报为32亿美元。 以下为嘉能可公布的业绩报告详细数据： | US$ million | HI 2025 | HI 2024 | Change % | 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Key statemen ...

嘉能可表示，将继续在伦敦进行主要上市，并搁置迁至纽约的可能，因为这家瑞士矿业公司表示，迁至 纽约不会为股东带来更大的价值。嘉能可是英国富时100指数中最大的公司之一，该公司曾于2月份表示 正在考虑离开伦敦，转赴纽约上市，此举若实现，将损害伦敦作为全球采矿业主要枢纽之一的地位。 本文源自：金融界 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the **basic materials sector** in China, particularly focusing on **coal**, **steel**, **cement**, and **lithium** in the context of China's **anti-involution policy** [5][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to rectify low-price and disorderly competition, eliminate outdated capacity, and create a unified national market. It emphasizes sectors like **electric vehicles (EV)**, **solar**, and **e-commerce**, while focusing on **lithium** and **coal** in basic materials [5][12]. - **Coal Inspections**: The National Energy Administration (NEA) is inspecting coal mines in eight provinces to address overproduction. The impact is more significant in **metallurgical coal** (26% volume impact) compared to **thermal coal** (3% volume impact). Production cuts are anticipated, but execution remains uncertain [6][14]. - **Price Projections**: - **Met Coal**: Prices are expected to average around **RMB 1,200/ton** with potential curtailments [6][14]. - **Thermal Coal**: Prices may recover to **RMB 670/ton** during summer but are expected to soften in Q4, averaging **RMB 630/ton** in 2025 [14]. - **Steel Sector**: Steel is considered a lower priority in the anti-involution campaign due to previous successful reforms. Steel output has already declined by **7-9% year-on-year** in May-June [7][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Hydropower Project Impact**: The Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project, costing **RMB 1.2 trillion**, is expected to consume **4.3 million tons per annum (mtpa)** of cement and **0.6 mtpa** of steel, which is not anticipated to significantly impact overall commodity consumption [10][12]. - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore prices have increased from **$93/ton** to **$103/ton** due to expectations of property stimulus and supply reform. Steel production in China has slowed, and exports remain strong at **~112 million tons** in June [11][12]. - **Inventory Levels**: Both thermal and metallurgical coal inventories are healthier compared to earlier in 2025, with thermal coal inventories at Independent Power Producers (IPPs) remaining elevated [14]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the implications of China's anti-involution policy on the basic materials sector, particularly coal and steel. The anticipated production cuts and price adjustments reflect the government's efforts to stabilize the market while addressing overproduction issues. The impact of new infrastructure projects on commodity demand appears limited, and the overall sentiment in the iron ore market remains cautiously optimistic.

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company's self-owned copper production decreased by 21.0% year-on-year to 176,000 tons, while cobalt production increased by 1.1% to 9,400 tons [1][3] - The company reported a significant increase in zinc production, which rose by 18.9% year-on-year to 251,600 tons, and a decrease in lead and nickel production [1][2] - The first half of 2025 saw a 26% decrease in copper production compared to the first half of 2024, attributed to mining sequencing and lower ore grades [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Q2 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 176,000 tons, down 21.0% year-on-year, up 4.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned cobalt production: 9,400 tons, up 1.1% year-on-year, down 1.1% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned zinc production: 251,600 tons, up 18.9% year-on-year, up 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned lead production: 41,000 tons, down 7.0% year-on-year, down 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned nickel production: 17,800 tons, down 12.7% year-on-year, down 5.3% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [1][2][3] H1 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 343,900 tons, down 26% year-on-year - Self-owned cobalt production: 18,900 tons, up 19% year-on-year - Self-owned zinc production: 465,200 tons, up 12% year-on-year - Self-owned lead production: 90,900 tons, up 3% year-on-year - Self-owned nickel production: 36,600 tons, down 7% year-on-year - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [3][7][8] 2025 Production Guidance - Updated production guidance reflects a tightening of ranges, considering year-to-date performance and expected full-year results [11][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - 232 tariff exemption for refined copper, copper prices may fluctuate downward, but the decline may not be smooth, with support expected in the range of 76,000 - 77,000 yuan/ton [5][8][15] - The supply of copper concentrates is facing challenges, with the growth rate falling short of expectations, and the tight supply situation is difficult to ease [29][39] - Overseas consumption remains resilient in Q3, but uncertainty increases in Q4; domestic demand is differentiated, with some sectors showing growth and others being dragged down [6][15][73] - The import window may open periodically, presenting a good positive arbitrage opportunity, but in the long - term, it may remain closed [8][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Copper Market Overview - On July 30, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1, excluding copper ores and cathode copper, causing a 18% plunge in US copper prices [5][14] - The COMEX - LME spread quickly converged to 2% - 3%, and if US copper is re - exported, the LME inventory accumulation rate may accelerate [5][14] - Due to the 232 tariff policy, the pre - consumption of copper globally has advanced, with overseas demand growing steadily and domestic demand in China and emerging economies weakening marginally [6][15] II. Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The expectation of the 232 tariff policy led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions, pushing up prices, which then fell back after the policy was announced [11] - The抢 - import of copper in the US from April to May led to a shortage of supply in non - US regions and a decrease in LME inventory. After the 232 policy was expected to be implemented, the LME inventory started to increase [12] 2. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US economy remains resilient, and the impact of the tariff policy depends on whether the US reaches a settlement with other countries [13][15] - In terms of supply, the supply of copper concentrates faces challenges, and domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production, while overseas smelters may further reduce production [13][14] - In terms of demand, overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand is differentiated but will not collapse [15] - In terms of prices, copper prices face downward pressure, but the decline may not be smooth [15] - In terms of ratios, the import window may open periodically, but will remain closed in the long - term [16] III. Copper Mine Disturbances Increase, Supply Tightness Difficult to Alleviate 1. Copper Concentrate Supply Growth Rate Falls Short of Expectations - In 2025, the supply of copper mines is tight. Some major mining companies have lowered their production expectations, and the supply growth rate is lower than expected [29] - The increase in domestic imports of copper concentrates in the first half of the year is due to the unstable production of overseas smelters, but overall, the supply of copper mines is still tight, and it is difficult for processing fees to rise significantly [39] 2. Global Scrap Copper Supply Mismatch, Tight Domestic Scrap Copper Supply - After the reciprocal 10% tariffs between China and the US, the export volume of US scrap copper did not decrease, but the export destination changed. China's imports from the US decreased significantly [40] - China has increased imports from Thailand and Europe to replace US scrap copper, but the import growth rate has declined, and the difficulty of importing scrap copper has increased [41] 3. Global Refined Copper Production Situation - Overseas smelters have increased production cuts due to factors such as low processing fees, copper concentrate shortages, and high costs. Some major smelters have stopped production or plan to cut production [46] - Domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production due to high sulfuric acid prices. The production of electrolytic copper in the first half of 2025 increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year [47][48] IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption Remains Resilient in Q3, Uncertainty Increases in Q4 - The US economy remains resilient, and the risk of recession has decreased significantly. The impact of the tariff policy on the US manufacturing industry is not obvious [53][54] - The global manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, with most developed countries showing an upward trend, while China and some emerging economies declined [54] 2. Domestic Demand Differentiation - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market continues to drag down copper consumption. The decline in construction completion area leads to a decrease in copper demand, and the impact of policy rate cuts on the real estate market is limited in the short - term [73][74] - **Power Grid and Power Source**: In the first half of 2025, grid investment increased year - on - year, and power source investment increased significantly. However, the wire and cable industry was affected by the off - season and high copper prices, and the export situation was different in different regions [80][83] - **Air - conditioning Market**: In the first half of 2025, the air - conditioning market showed growth, but the export market declined. The consumption growth rate of air - conditioners is expected to decline, and the copper consumption will increase slightly [91][92] - **Automobile Market**: The overall automobile market is stable, but the profitability is declining. The sales of fuel - powered vehicles are declining, and the substitution of new - energy vehicles for fuel - powered vehicles is the general trend [100] 3. "Anti - involution" Involves the Automobile Industry, Wind and Solar Power Generation Exceeds Expectations - **New - energy Vehicles**: The global new - energy vehicle market continues to grow. China leads the market, but the growth rate has slowed down in June - August. The copper consumption of new - energy vehicles is expected to increase [103][111] - **Wind and Solar Power Generation**: In the first half of 2025, China's photovoltaic and wind power new - installed capacity increased significantly year - on - year. The new - installed capacity of global photovoltaic and wind power is also expected to increase, and the copper consumption will increase accordingly [113][115] 4. Consumption Summary - Overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand weakens marginally but does not collapse. The growth of new - energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and wind power will drive copper consumption, while the real estate market will continue to drag down copper consumption [139] V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2024, there was a shortage of 130,000 tons of copper concentrates, and in 2025, the supply gap is expected to widen to 830,000 tons. In 2024, there was a surplus of 330,000 tons of refined copper, and in 2025, the surplus is expected to be 280,000 tons [143] - In July 2025, the domestic refined copper production and apparent consumption increased, but the year - on - year growth rate decreased due to the high base in 2024 [143]

该公司报告称，上半年铜产量同比下降26%，至3343,900吨，主要是因为矿石品位下降。该公司还将2025年全年铜产量预估自此前的850,000-890,000吨上调 至850,000-910,000吨。预计未来数月，其铜产量会更高。 数据显示，该公司2024年铜产量为952,000吨。 该公司表示将关闭其在澳大利亚Mount Isa的最后两座铜矿并已同意出售旗下菲律宾的铜冶炼厂。 上半年其钴产量为18,900吨，较上年同期增加19%。 （文华综合） 7月30日（周三），嘉能可周三报告称，上半年铜产量下降并表示其目标是在2026年底前节省10亿美元成本。 该公司首席执行官Gary Nagle在一份声明中表示："对我们的工业资产组合进行了全面审查……，认识到简化工业运营结构的机会。" 他补充说，该公司将在8月6日的半年报中提供更多细节。 ...

上半年铜产量暴跌26%，年度指引再遭下调，嘉能可的这份报告，是铜价反弹的"集结号"吗？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...