格隆汇12月3日｜嘉能可伦敦股价迅速上涨，现涨4.7%。 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - International copper prices have reached new highs, with London copper futures reported at $11,197.5 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 27.5% [1] - The initial driver for the price increase is a tightening supply due to operational disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is one of the largest copper-gold mines globally, producing 1.7 billion pounds of copper annually [1] - The expected recovery of the Grasberg mine is projected for the first half of 2026, indicating a significant short-term capacity gap in the international copper market [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - The construction boom of data centers and the growing demand from the renewable energy sector and grid upgrades are further increasing the demand for copper [1] - Several analysis firms have raised their projections for refined copper shortages by 2026 to between 300,000 to 400,000 tons [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and a weaker dollar, is exerting upward pressure on copper prices [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The inclusion of copper in the U.S. critical minerals list has led to increased arbitrage activities, concentrating inventories in the U.S. and tightening non-U.S. markets [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that copper prices are forming a self-reinforcing upward mechanism characterized by "inventory drawdown—spread widening—accelerated stockpiling," which is expected to keep prices high next year [2] Group 5: Price Forecasts - Major Wall Street institutions have raised their copper price targets, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices between $10,000 to $11,000 per ton next year, while JPMorgan and Citigroup are more optimistic, forecasting prices to exceed $12,000 per ton [3] - UBS estimates that copper prices could rise to $13,000 per ton by the end of 2026, and Bank of America anticipates prices to surpass $13,500 per ton by 2027 [3] Group 6: Industry Developments - Glencore and Teck Resources are involved in a significant copper deal, proposing a merger between the Quebrada Blanca mine and the larger Collahuasi mine in northern Chile, which would create one of the world's major copper mining operations [4]

Group 1: Availability Paradox and Market Dynamics - Deutsche Bank warns that Pop Mart is facing an "Availability Paradox" as its production capacity aggressively expands to 50 million units per month by year-end, leading to Labubu transitioning from a scarce trendy IP to a mass consumer product, which may signal a decline in popularity for trend-driven toys [1] - If Labubu's popularity peaks in 2026 without new hit products, valuation pressure on Pop Mart will increase significantly [1] Group 2: Copper Market Supply and Price Forecast - Deutsche Bank indicates that the global copper market is experiencing a supply squeeze, with severe supply disruptions pushing copper prices close to historical highs [3] - The report predicts a decline in mine supply by 2025, with only a 1% rebound expected the following year, resulting in a "clear deficit" in the market [3] - As a result, Deutsche Bank raises its copper price forecast for 2026 to $10,600 per ton, with potential peaks exceeding $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 [3][6] Group 3: Key Company Updates and Investment Focus - Glencore is set to hold its first Capital Markets Day (CMD) in two years, aiming to restore market confidence in its operational capabilities, while Rio Tinto focuses on business simplification and capital discipline [4][9] - Deutsche Bank lists Anglo Teck, Glencore, and Freeport as preferred stocks, adjusting ratings for Boliden to "Buy" and First Quantum to "Hold" [7] - Glencore's CMD on December 3 is highly anticipated, with expectations that it will provide guidance on copper production and capital expenditures, while also addressing potential M&A discussions [8] Group 4: Rio Tinto's Strategic Focus - Rio Tinto's CMD on December 4 is expected to emphasize capital discipline, business simplification, and divestment of non-core assets, with a projected annual capital expenditure guidance of $10-11 billion [10] - The market will closely monitor production guidance for the Simandou project, amid concerns of potential oversupply [10]

智通财经APP获悉，五矿证券发布研报称，刚果（金）于10月10日出台新的配额管理制度，规定 2026/2027年钴出口量各为9.66万吨，主要配额分配给洛阳钼业（03993）、嘉能可（GLNCY.US）等矿 企，当地冶炼厂无直接配额。同时，全产业链库存持续消耗，当前钴产品价格出现倒挂，预计仍有补涨 空间。此外，美国国防部计划重启价值5亿美元的钴储备采购招标，预计2026年2月初授标，进一步凸显 钴的战略地位。 以氯化钴为例，我国库存天数从4月份的46天降至当前的39天。而下游冶炼厂中间品库存消耗量最大， 从5月份的4.5万吨降至当前1.7万吨，5个月去库量达到2.8万吨。合计来看，5个月内综合冶炼厂中间品 库存、电钴社会库存、硫酸钴库存，累计去库量达到3.2万吨，月均0.64万吨。 短期钴产品价格倒挂，钴价再上新台阶的trigger 钴产品价格倒挂，电钴具备经济性。2025年刚果金首次提出钴原料禁止出口以来，钴中间品CIF中国平 均价格从5.95美元/磅持续上涨至当前24.15美元/磅，涨幅达到306%。中国钴产品价格电钴现在报价40.2 万元/吨、硫酸钴折金属价43.2万元/吨、四钴折金属47.4万元/吨， ...

Shares of Glencore PLC (GLNCY) have been struggling lately and have lost 7.9% over the past week. However, a hammer chart pattern was formed in its last trading session, which could mean that the stock found support with bulls being able to counteract the bears. So, it could witness a trend reversal down the road.The formation of a hammer pattern is considered a technical indication of nearing a bottom with likely subsiding of selling pressure. But this is not the only factor that makes a bullish case for t ...

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has reduced its stake in Century Aluminum by 10% to 33%, benefiting from increased profits in local aluminum smelting due to U.S. import tariffs on aluminum, resulting in several million dollars in gains [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Glencore is the largest shareholder of Century Aluminum and supplies alumina to the company while purchasing nearly all of its North American aluminum products for U.S. customers [1] - The reduction in Glencore's stake comes after the U.S. government raised aluminum import tariffs to 50% on June 4, aimed at encouraging domestic aluminum production [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Century Aluminum is the largest primary aluminum producer in the U.S., with a production of 690,000 tons of aluminum in 2024 [1] - According to Trade Data Monitor, U.S. aluminum imports are projected to be 3.94 million tons in 2024, indicating a significant market size [1] - Producers must ensure that their product prices cover the tariffs to continue shipping aluminum to the U.S. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction. The short - term is expected to maintain range consolidation. Unilateral strategies should focus on high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on the Shanghai - London ratio [3][65][66]. - The tight pattern of the zinc ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The inventory trends at home and abroad are diverging [2][62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In August 2025, the global zinc market supply surplus expanded to 47,900 tons. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc supply surplus was 154,000 tons. From July to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 2.1712 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.57%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.1482 million tons, basically the same as the cumulative output of last year [11]. - The statistical sample of this report shows that the zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2025 was 1.4424 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 4.254 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.31% [11]. 3.2 Glencore - In 2025, Glencore's zinc concentrate production guidance was adjusted to 94 - 980,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 244,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.94% and a year - on - year increase of 7.86%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.22% [19]. 3.3 Teck - In 2025, Teck's zinc concentrate production guidance was 525,000 - 575,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 150,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 456,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.81% [24]. 3.4 Boliden - In the third quarter of 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate output was 108,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 17.75%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 317,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.12% [27]. 3.5 Vedanta - In the third quarter of 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate output was 262,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.16% and a year - on - year increase of 8.26%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 785,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.65% [32]. 3.6 Nexa - In 2025, Nexa's zinc concentrate production guidance was 300,000 - 336,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 83,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.88% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 224,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [37]. 3.7 MMG - In 2025, MMG's zinc concentrate production guidance was 215,000 - 240,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 58,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.58% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 166,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [44]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - In 2025, Newmont's zinc concentrate production guidance was 236,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 59,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11.52% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 184,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.30% [47][48]. 3.9 BHP - In the 2025 fiscal year, BHP's zinc concentrate production guidance was 90,000 - 110,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 36,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.95% and a year - on - year increase of 85.77%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 91.03% [49]. 3.10 South32 - In the 2026 fiscal year, South32's zinc concentrate production guidance was 40,000 tons, a decrease compared with the 2025 fiscal year. In the third quarter of 2025, the zinc concentrate output was 8,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.40%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.74% [50][51]. 3.11 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production guidance was 174,700 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous period. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 45,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 46.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 130,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.55% [52]. 3.12 Industrials Pelones - In the third quarter of 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate output was 63,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 181,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.68% [54]. 3.13 Fresnillo plc - In 2025, Fresnillo plc's zinc concentrate production guidance was 93,000 - 103,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 24,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.41%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.61% [57]. 3.14 Market Outlook - The tight pattern of the ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The domestic and foreign inventory trends are diverging. Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction [62][63][65].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation International Industrial Group Limited, the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, has launched its Hong Kong IPO, attracting significant backing from top global investors, signaling a positive trend for the recovering Hong Kong IPO market [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - The company aims to raise up to HKD 5.5 billion (approximately USD 707 million) through the IPO, which has garnered commitments from cornerstone investors including Glencore, Hillhouse Capital, and Millennium Management, who have agreed to subscribe to about USD 336 million worth of shares, nearly half of the maximum fundraising amount [1][2]. - The IPO price range is set between HKD 10.18 and HKD 10.99 per share, with the listing expected on November 24 [2]. Group 2: Use of Proceeds - Approximately half of the net proceeds from the IPO will be allocated for overseas expansion, while the remaining funds will be used for green energy projects, working capital, and general corporate purposes [2]. Group 3: Business Model and Performance - Innovation International focuses on the upstream aluminum industry, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting, with a significant cost advantage due to its strategic locations in Inner Mongolia and Shandong [3]. - The company achieved an alumina self-sufficiency rate of 84% and an electricity self-sufficiency rate of 88% in 2024, well above industry averages [3]. - From 2022 to 2024, the company's net profit increased from RMB 913 million to RMB 2.63 billion, although it faced a 14.4% decline in net profit to RMB 856 million in the first five months of 2025 due to rising coal prices [3]. Group 4: Customer Dependency - Innovation International has a significant reliance on a single major customer, Innovation New Materials, which accounted for 78.8% and 76.6% of its total revenue in 2023 and 2024, respectively [4]. - The revenue from the top five customers represented 86.6% of total revenue in 2024, significantly higher than peers like Tianshan Aluminum and Yun Aluminum [4]. Group 5: Corporate Structure - Prior to the IPO, the company underwent internal restructuring, with its chairman, Cui Lixin, holding 100% of the shares through Bloomsbury Holding before the IPO, and is expected to retain about 75% post-listing [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the TC of zinc ore continued to decline, strengthening the expectation of domestic smelter production cuts. The opening of the zinc ingot export window reduced the pressure of domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulation. The high spread between the domestic and overseas markets attracted attention, with domestic smelters and traders actively seeking exports. The LME zinc has limited room for further significant upside. - There is a need for profit - taking of cross - market long - spread funds, while the participation enthusiasm of cross - market short - spread funds is currently limited. It is a good opportunity to enter cross - market short - spread trades as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets has shown signs of convergence, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. The spread is expected to converge to the range of 1,000 - 1,500 yuan/ton. - The high - low rotation of funds has spread from the stock market to the futures market, and a rebound of oversold varieties can be expected. In Q4, Shanghai zinc is not recommended as a short - allocation. The rebound height is temporarily seen at the annual line of 23,200 yuan/ton. It is unlikely to rebound to the high - level range of 24,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year unless the domestic deflation expectation is broken and overseas consumption exceeds expectations. - The price range of Shanghai zinc in Q4 is expected to be 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and the price range of LME zinc is 2,900 - 3,100 US dollars/ton. [73][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Price History and Current Situation - Historically, factors such as the European debt crisis, US QE policies, mine shortages, and changes in TC have affected zinc prices. In 2025, the zinc market has complex supply - demand and price relationships. The LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, SMM zinc inventory is 159,600 tons, and the smelter raw material inventory is 26 days. The LME 0 - 3 month premium is 117.04 US dollars. [5][21] - In 2025, from January to July, China's zinc ingot production was 3.8425 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%. From January to September, the output was 5.0685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83%. However, some overseas refineries have reduced production due to factors such as low TC and profit problems. In H1 2025, the overall output of major overseas refineries decreased by 89,900 tons year - on - year, a decline of 4.34%. [28][29][39] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - side factors**: New domestic mines such as Huoshaoyun, Russia's OZ mine, and Congo's Kipushi lead - zinc mine have been put into production, effectively alleviating the raw material constraints on domestic refineries. However, overseas refineries' profit recovery will lead to competition for mines between overseas and domestic refineries. [30][41] - **Demand - side factors**: The real estate market has shown signs of weakness, with a decline in real estate investment and a mixed situation in housing sales. The photovoltaic industry has passed the high - growth stage, and the growth rate of new installed capacity has slowed down. However, the export of galvanized sheets has increased, with the cumulative export of 10 - tariff - number galvanized sheets from January to September 2025 reaching 10.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.61%. [62][64][58] - **Policy factors**: The import and export tariffs of zinc products have been adjusted. For example, the export tariff of 0 zinc is 20%, but the provisional tariff in 2025 is 0%. The export of zinc ingots is subject to a 13% VAT, and the export tax rebate has been cancelled since 2008. [34][35] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Cross - market arbitrage**: Cross - market short - spread is recommended as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets is converging, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. - **Unilateral trading**: For LME zinc, beware of sudden warehouse deliveries due to low inventory. The upside space above the 3,100 - dollar integer mark is limited, so short - allocation on rallies is recommended. For Shanghai zinc, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In Q4, short - allocation is not recommended. Look for short - allocation opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton or short - term long positions on pullbacks. - **Inter - period trading**: Due to the weak current situation and unclear prospects for expectation repair, the inter - period spread is difficult to widen, maintaining a normal positive market structure, and there are no inter - period arbitrage opportunities. [74][75]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a zinc special report dated November 10, 2025, focusing on the Q3 financial reports of overseas zinc mines [4][8][12] Group 2: Overseas Mine Production Overseas Part - Mine Output Aggregation - The report provides a detailed table of the production of overseas mining enterprises from 2021Q1 to 2025Q3, including Vedanta, Glencore, TECK, etc. The total production shows fluctuations over different quarters and years, with varying year - on - year growth rates [16] Global Zinc Concentrate Annual Output - The annual output and year - on - year growth rate of global zinc concentrate from 2017 to 2025E are presented. The output in 2025E is expected to be 1262.05 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 5.90% [70] Zinc Concentrate Production Change Forecast - In 2025, overseas mines are expected to have a net increase of 59.49 million tons in production, with new mines, production increases, restarts, and some mines reducing production or shutting down. Domestic mines are expected to have a new production increase of 10.80 million tons, with a total global net increase of 70.29 million tons [73] - Forecasts for production changes from 2026 - 2030 are also provided, with a total net increase of 23.27 million tons in 2026, 5.60 million tons in 2027, 12.10 million tons in 2028, 6.30 million tons in 2029, and 0.70 million tons in 2030 [75]