转自：新华财经 刚果（金）政府2025年2月宣布暂停钴出口，原定期限为4个月，后延长实施。政府当时表示，该措施旨在应对国际市场钴供应过剩导致的价格持续下行。 编辑：王菁 新华财经金沙萨12月31日电（记者史彧）据路透社12月31日报道，刚果（金）矿业监管机构表示，将允许2025年第四季度的钴出口配额延续至3月底，以 保障新配额制度平稳实施。 据刚果（金）披露的钴出口配额明细，洛阳钼业2025年四季度获得的钴出口配额达6650吨。12月24日，针对刚果（金）实施的钴出口配额制度，洛阳钼业 方面在接受采访时表示，公司正按照刚政府程序，落实各种出口安排。 报道称，在出口正式放行前，仍需完成包括装运、海关申报以及最终行政审批在内的多项程序。刚果（金）矿业监管机构同时表示，将研究企业就配额调 整提出的申请，但未透露是否已有相关请求提交。 报道援引刚果（金）矿业监管机构——战略矿产市场监管控制局（ARECOMS）发布的声明称，该机构已决定允许2025年第四季度核定的钴出口配额在 2026年3月31日前继续有效。此前，刚果（金）政府于今年10月16日正式启动钴出口配额制度，规定2025年全年钴出口总量上限为9.66万吨。 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价震荡收十字星，总持仓下降 9850 手，盘面 01-02 价差缩窄至 190，现货铜跌 205 至 93470，现货贴水扩大 20 至 215，现货进口亏损扩大至 1600 以上，进口窗 口关闭，LME0-3back 扩大至 6.58，同时沪伦比值继续下跌，外盘价格表现持续强 于内盘。日内有 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil price has dropped significantly due to weak demand and geopolitical factors, with a total decline of approximately 20% this year, reaching its lowest level since February 2021 [2] - The commodity trading giant Trafigura warns of a "super surplus" in the oil market next year due to a combination of supply surge and declining global demand [2] - Analysts predict that the peak of supply surplus will occur in the first quarter of 2026, with expectations of continued inventory growth throughout the year, putting further pressure on oil prices [3] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - International gold prices have surged from $2,650 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,000 per ounce, marking a significant bull market with a year-to-date increase of approximately 60% [4] - Central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 254 tons from January to October, providing substantial support for gold prices [4] - The International Clearing Bank (BIS) warns of potential bubble signs in the gold market due to excessive optimism and rising valuations, which could lead to a price correction of 5% to 20% [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - The price of copper is expected to remain robust due to global industrial transformation, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with a projected demand increase of around 3% in 2026 [7] - Supply constraints, exacerbated by incidents such as the collapse of a copper mine in Chile, have led to reduced production forecasts, supporting copper prices [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that over 60% of copper demand growth by 2030 will be driven by investments in power infrastructure, indicating strong long-term prospects for copper [8]

（来源：经济参考报） 需求疲弱令油价走低 针对今年以来震荡走低的国际油价，多个机构近期表示，需求端疲软令基本面宽松的局面持续打压油 价，地缘政治局势缓和等因素也给油价带来下行压力。 受到供应过剩压力加剧的预期，以及市场对俄乌和谈再现乐观情绪的影响，国际油价近期跌至2021年2 月以来最低水平，令今年的油价总体跌幅达到约20%。 据英国《金融时报》近日报道，全球大宗商品贸易巨头托克集团警告称，由于供应激增与全球需求下降 并存，石油市场明年将面临"超级过剩"。该集团日前发布的公司年度业绩显示，截至9月份的财年净利 润为27亿美元，创五年新低。 除了行业头部企业业绩反映需求下降，《金融时报》还指出，随着全球大量原油开采新项目将于明年投 产，预计油价将受到进一步压制。 英国oil price网站称，在需求增长疲软的背景下，石油供应持续上涨，因此预测机构和分析师预计2026 年市场将出现大幅供应过剩。许多专家和投资银行认为，当前市场正在累积库存，这一趋势将持续到 2026年年初。美国能源信息署和华尔街银行也看空未来一年的石油市场，预测2026年平均油价将低于60 美元/桶。 高盛等机构的分析师表示，尽管市场对原油供应过 ...

Company Strategy - Kazzinc (哈萨克矿业公司，由 Glencore 控股) 将向竞争对手开放金属销售 [1] Industry Trend - 各国政府寻求加强对自然资源的控制和增加收入 [1]

该交易继本月另外两笔秘鲁铜矿交易之后：加拿大公司Rio2Ltd.以2.41亿美元的价格从Southern Peaks Mining手中收购了Condestable项目;澳大利亚公司Fortescue同意收购其尚未持有的Alta Copper Corp.剩余 的64%股份，这标志着这家澳大利亚公司首次大规模涉足铁矿石以外的领域。 秘鲁的这波铜矿交易热潮正值铜价接近历史最高水平之际，而铜被视为电气化和能源转型的关键金属。 今年铜价已上涨超过30%，其主要原因是生产中断以及新建矿山和扩建现有矿山所面临的重重困难。 嘉能可正加大在秘鲁的业务投入，这是其全球铜产量翻番计划的一部分。该公司押注能够应对秘鲁部分 地区因扩张计划而引发的零星抗议活动，以及该地区社区与采矿业之间更广泛的紧张关系。此外，该地 区非正规采矿活动也激增。 各公司也表现出愿意克服秘鲁繁琐的官僚程序，在秘鲁，将一个勘探项目变成一个运转中的矿山可能需 要数十年时间。 嘉能可收购了秘鲁的一个矿业项目，这是该国不到两周内的第三笔铜矿交易，各公司竞相增加对这种预 计供应短缺金属的投资。嘉能可周二在一份声明中表示，将从日本铜矿企业Pan Pacific Coppe ...

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has expanded its operations in Peru by acquiring the Quechua copper project, enhancing its position among metal producers in the country [1] Group 1 - The acquisition of the Quechua copper project is located adjacent to Glencore's existing Antapaccay operations in Peru [1] - This strategic move is aimed at strengthening Glencore's presence in the Peruvian mining sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - JX Advanced Metals' subsidiary Pan Pacific Copper has sold its entire stake in Compañía Minera Quechua to Glencore Peru Holding, allowing Glencore to take over the Quechua copper project and enabling JX to reallocate resources to align with its long-term strategy [1][3][5]. Group 1: Transaction Details - JX Advanced Metals holds a 47.8% ownership stake in Pan Pacific Copper, which has sold all issued shares of Compañía Minera Quechua to Glencore Peru Holding [1]. - Following the sale, Glencore will control all mining interests in the Quechua copper project, which PPC has evaluated since acquiring interests in 2007 [1][2]. - PPC deferred development of the Quechua project to prioritize the Caserones copper and molybdenum project and due to challenges in independent development [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The sale allows JX Advanced Metals and its equity partners to reallocate resources to initiatives that align with their individual policies [3]. - JX Advanced Metals is rapidly expanding its Focus Businesses in the advanced materials sector while optimizing its Base Businesses in mineral resources, metals, and recycling [3][4]. - The company aims to strengthen supply chains for copper and minor metals and curb volatility through portfolio restructuring in its Mineral Resources segment [4][5]. Group 3: Production Adjustments - In September, it was reported that JX Advanced Metals plans to reduce its copper production by several tens of thousands of tonnes in fiscal year 2025 compared to previous projections [6].

Core Viewpoint - JX Advanced Metals Corporation has transferred full ownership of the Quechua copper project to Glencore Peru Holding through its affiliate Pan Pacific Copper, marking a strategic shift in asset management and development focus for both companies [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) has sold 100% of the shares in Compania Minera Quechua (CMQ) to Glencore Peru Holding, which now fully owns the Quechua copper project [1]. - CMQ held the mining concessions for the Quechua project, which has not progressed to development despite several feasibility studies over the past decade [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Glencore, a major player in the mining sector, is expected to utilize its existing regional infrastructure to enhance operational efficiency and integrate the Quechua project into its broader copper operations in Peru [3]. - The transaction is part of JX Advanced Metals' Long-Term Vision 2040, which involves a portfolio realignment focusing on advanced materials and reducing exposure to large-scale copper projects [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The acquisition reflects a broader industry trend where diversified mining companies are rebalancing their portfolios to manage commodity price volatility and secure supply chains for strategic materials [5]. - Peru continues to be a leading copper producer, and the consolidation of assets by large operators is becoming more common as they seek economies of scale amid various operational pressures [6].

Summary of Mining Equities Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector Performance**: In 2025, mining equities outperformed equity benchmarks, primarily driven by gold and copper, while ferrous metals and energy remained flat or declined [1][15] - **2026 Outlook**: Expectations for copper, aluminium, and lithium to outperform due to supply constraints and energy transition, with a cautious view on traditional end markets in developed economies [2][15] Key Commodities Insights Copper - **Market Dynamics**: The medium-term outlook for copper remains bullish, with expectations of market tightness in 2026 due to limited growth in global mine output and a deficit in refined output [3][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: Freeport is highlighted as a top pick due to its discounted valuation and expected production recovery at the Grasberg mine [4][23] Aluminium - **Demand vs Supply**: The outlook for aluminium is mixed; while demand holds up, supply constraints are expected, particularly from China and developed markets [5][24] - **Investment Recommendation**: A buy recommendation for Norsk Hydro is reiterated, with expectations of stable operations and potential cash returns [8][24] Gold - **Market Sentiment**: Gold remains a consensus macro trade, with equities delivering strong returns in 2025. However, valuations are less compelling than at the start of the year [9][22] - **Top Picks**: Barrick and Newmont are identified as top picks, with potential for further catalysts in 2026 [10][22] Iron Ore - **Price Forecast**: The medium-term outlook for iron ore is bearish, with prices expected to stabilize around $100/t in the short term and decline to $90/t by 2027 due to increased supply from Simandou [11][20] Coal - **Market Conditions**: Met coal prices have risen above $200/t due to demand and supply disruptions, while thermal coal remains stable at $110/t [12][20] Diversified Miners - **Performance Comparison**: Vale outperformed in the bulks sector, while RIO and BHP performed in line with benchmarks. A preference for RIO over Vale and BHP is noted due to better growth prospects [13][25] Earnings and Price Target Changes - **Adjustments**: Earnings estimates and price targets have been adjusted based on commodity price forecasts, with notable upgrades for copper miners like FCX and KGHM [28][29] Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The report emphasizes a selective investment approach in mining equities, focusing on commodities with strong fundamentals and potential for price gains, particularly copper, aluminium, and gold [2][15][22]