Core Insights - The U.S. government and taxpayers are benefiting from their stake in Intel Corporation, which has a cost basis near $20 per share, indicating significant growth for the company in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Intel Corporation, once considered a legacy company, has experienced tremendous growth recently, suggesting a turnaround in its business performance [1] Group 2: Investment Implications - The favorable cost basis of Intel shares for the U.S. government highlights a potential investment opportunity for stakeholders in the semiconductor sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's earnings report on January 22 showed revenue and EPS beating consensus expectations, but disappointing Q1 guidance led to a negative market reaction [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $13.67 billion, exceeding the consensus of $13.39 billion - Non-GAAP EPS was $0.15, surpassing the consensus of $0.08 - Q1 guidance is projected at $11.7-12.7 billion, with a midpoint of $12.2 billion, falling short of the expected $12.53 billion [1][6]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Intel's stock price fell back to $48 in post-market trading, reversing earlier gains [2]. - The market's disappointment stemmed from the lower-than-expected Q1 guidance despite positive revenue figures [1][2]. Demand and Capacity Issues - Revenue declined 4% year-over-year, and GAAP EPS was reported at -$0.12, with expectations of worsening to -$0.21 in Q1 2026 [3]. - Management indicated strong customer demand exists, but Intel is currently facing capacity constraints [5][7]. - The company is working to build out infrastructure to meet this demand, which is seen as a positive sign for future growth [4][5]. Future Outlook - The guidance for Q1 is viewed as manageable, with potential for sales to exceed the previous consensus if capacity issues are resolved [6]. - Intel's long-term outlook is optimistic, with expectations of improved performance by 2026 as capacity increases and demand is met [8]. - Significant investments from Nvidia and the U.S. government are expected to support Intel's recovery and growth [9]. Investment Consideration - Current stock price below $50 is seen as a favorable entry point for investors, with potential for significant appreciation if Intel can capture foundry market share [10][11][12].

美股周五盘前，英特尔（Intel）股价下跌13%。此前该公司公布的第四季度业绩表现好坏不一，且对当 前季度（三个月）的业绩指引逊于预期。 美股周五盘前，英特尔（Intel）股价下跌13%。此前该公司公布的第四季度业绩表现好坏不一，且对当 前季度（三个月）的业绩指引逊于预期。 根据伦敦证券交易所集团数据，该公司调整后每股收益为15美分，高于分析师普遍预期的8美分；但营 收未达预期，录得137亿美元，低于市场预估的134亿美元。英特尔还表示第一季度无法满足季节性需求 所需的供应量，令投资者失望。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 根据伦敦证券交易所集团数据，该公司调整后每股收益为15美分，高于分析师普遍预期的8美分；但营 收未达预期，录得137亿美元，低于市场预估的134亿美元。英特尔还表示第一季度无法满足季节性需求 所需的供应量，令投资者失望。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

英特尔最新发布的财报呈现出明显的割裂局面：尽管第四季度业绩超出预期，但由于当前季度指引疲软，引发了市场的抛售潮。华尔街分析师普 遍认为，供应受限是导致指引不及预期的核心原因，这一因素暂时掩盖了人工智能驱动下强劲的市场需求。 这家芯片巨头第四季度调整后每股收益为15美分，营收达到137亿美元，均高于LSEG（伦敦证券交易所集团）共识预期的8美分和134亿美元。然 而，其对第一季度的展望令华尔街感到失望。英特尔预计本季度营收在117亿美元至127亿美元之间，调整后每股收益仅为盈亏平衡。这两项数据 均显著低于分析师预期的125.1亿美元营收和5美分每股收益。 受令人失望的指引影响，英特尔股价在周五盘前交易中重挫13%。尽管英特尔的数据中心和人工智能业务显示出加速增长的迹象，但公司因制造 能力限制而无法满足这一需求，已成为投资者关注的焦点。 Desilva表示，如果产能充足，数据中心营收的表现本会显著优于季节性水平。目前，公司正在采取必要措施解决这一瓶颈，预计下一季度关键节 点的制造良率将有所提升，从而改善产品可用性。 2026年下半年或迎来催化剂 对于供应限制何时缓解，市场普遍将目光投向了今年晚些时候。Jeffer ...

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock dropped nearly 13% in pre-market trading following a disappointing earnings outlook from CEO Pat Gelsinger, highlighting ongoing manufacturing issues that hinder the company's recovery efforts [1] Financial Performance - Intel reported a 4.1% year-over-year decline in revenue for Q4 2025, totaling $13.7 billion, which was better than analysts' expectations of $13.4 billion [1] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the same quarter was $0.15, exceeding analysts' forecast of $0.09 [1] Future Projections - For Q1 2026, Intel expects revenue to be between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with the midpoint falling below analysts' expectations of $12.6 billion [1] - The company anticipates an adjusted EPS of zero for Q1 2026, while analysts had previously estimated $0.08 [1] Management Commentary - CEO Pat Gelsinger indicated that reversing the company's fortunes will require "time and determination," a statement that further pressured the stock price [1] - Manufacturing bottlenecks are impeding Intel's recovery efforts, disappointing investors who had hoped for a boost from new product launches [1] - Gelsinger described the current phase as a "multi-year journey" for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock dropped nearly 13% in pre-market trading following a disappointing earnings outlook from CEO Pat Gelsinger, who indicated that the company is facing manufacturing issues that hinder its recovery efforts [1] Financial Performance - Intel reported a 4.1% year-over-year decline in revenue for Q4 2025, totaling $13.7 billion, which was better than analysts' expectations of $13.4 billion [1] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the same quarter was $0.15, exceeding analysts' forecast of $0.09 [1] Future Projections - For Q1 2026, Intel expects revenue to be between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with the midpoint falling short of analysts' expectations of $12.6 billion [1] - The company anticipates an adjusted EPS of zero for Q1 2026, while analysts had previously estimated it to be $0.08 [1] Management Commentary - CEO Pat Gelsinger stated that reversing the company's situation will require "time and determination," which further pressured the stock price [1] - Manufacturing bottlenecks are impeding Intel's recovery efforts, disappointing investors who had hoped for a boost from new products [1] - Gelsinger emphasized that the company is on a "multi-year journey" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Intel Corporation (INTC) experienced a significant decline of over 13.7% in pre-market trading following the release of its Q4 '25 earnings report, despite exceeding expectations for the quarter [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported Q4 '25 earnings that surpassed market expectations, indicating strong performance in that quarter [1]. Market Reaction - The pre-market trading reaction suggests a negative sentiment among investors, leading to a sharp decline in the stock price [1].

Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures indicate a modestly lower open on Friday, following a sharp rise in the previous two sessions, as traders may look to cash in on gains [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 306.78 points (0.6%) to 49,384.01, the Nasdaq increased by 211.20 points (0.9%) to 23,436.02, and the S&P 500 climbed by 37.73 points (0.6%) to 6,913.35 [5] Company-Specific News - Intel (INTC) shares are under pressure, plunging nearly 13% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings but providing disappointing guidance for the current quarter [3][4] - The semiconductor giant's stock decline is expected to weigh on Wall Street [3] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 200,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level of 199,000, which was below economists' expectations of 205,000 [8] - Consumer prices in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates for November [9] Commodity and Currency Markets - Crude oil futures surged by $1.17 to $60.53 per barrel after a previous drop [11] - Gold futures climbed by $19.50 to $4,932.90 per ounce, following a significant increase in the previous session [11] Asian Market Performance - Asian stocks ended mostly higher, with China's Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.3% to 4,136.16, supported by Xiaomi's stock buyback announcement [12][13] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index edged up by 0.3% to 53,846.87, while the broader Topix Index settled 0.4% higher at 3,629.70 [15] European Market Performance - European stocks traded slightly lower, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 Index down by 0.2% after a 1% surge on Thursday [19] - French lender BNP Paribas plans to eliminate about 1,200 jobs by the end of 2027, contributing to its stock decline [20]

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 事件： 英特尔（INTC）近日发布2025Q4财报，25Q4营收136.7 亿美元，同比 -4.1%/ 环比 +0.2% ，毛利率 37.9% ，同比 - 4.2pcts/ 环比 - 2.1pcts。综 合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q4营收达此前指引上限，下半年供应限制部分抵消全年收入增长。 25Q4营收136.7亿美元，同比-4.1%/环比+0.2%，位于此前指引上限（128-138亿美元），得益于AI基础设施的建设，公司相关业务均实现了强劲增 长，AI PC、传统服务器和网络业务的营收同环比均实现两位数增长；毛利率37.9%，同比-4.2pcts/环比-2.1pcts，高出此前指引1.4pcts（36.5%）， 主要系营收增长和库存准备金减少，部分被英特尔18A早期量产所抵消。四季度资本开支40亿美元。全年来看，2025年公司营收为529亿美元，同 比-0.3%，主要是公司制造网络和外部供应商的供应限制阻碍了增长，尤其是在下半年；Non-GAAP毛利率为36.7%，同比+0.7pct，主要是期间费用减 少。全年总资本支出为177亿美元。 2、 ...

【市场动态】 ①英媒：俄美乌安全问题工作组首次会议在阿联酋开始举行； ②据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计 降息25个基点的概率为15.4%，维持利率不变的概率为84.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.6%； ③泽连斯基称乌美安全保障协议已准备就绪； 【时政新闻】 ①美股指期货盘前集体走低，道琼斯指数期货跌0.34%，标普500指数期货跌0.13%，纳斯达克100指数 期货跌0.19%； 【公司新闻】 ①英特尔披露业绩，公司预计第一季度营收中值低于市场预期的125.1亿美元，预计第一季度每股盈亏 相抵。该股美股盘前跌逾13%； ②TikTok官宣美国方案，两公司共同运营，字节保留算法知识产权。 (本文来自第一财经) ②欧股主要股指涨跌不一，英国富时100指数微涨，法国CAC40指数跌0.29%，德国DAX30指数涨 0.1%，意大利富时MIB指数跌0.78%； ③热门中概股盘前涨跌不一，阿里巴巴跌逾1%，理想汽车涨逾1%； ...