传媒/数字媒体 快手-W（01024.HK） 2025 年 11 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/11/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 64.950 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 92.600/38.150 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 2,808.05 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 2,808.05 | | 总股本(亿股) | 43.23 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 43.23 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 57.74 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 快手-W 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《Q2 经调整净利润大增，可灵 AI 商 业价值加速释放—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.8.22 《AI 赋能成效显著，可灵 AI 商业化 变现加速—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2025.5.30 ——港股公司信息更新报告 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 业绩稳步增长，看好 AI 赋能主 ...

Core Insights - Kuaishou's commercialization is transitioning from "traffic-driven" to "efficiency-driven," with AI efficiency improvements becoming a central narrative for the coming years [2][3] - Kuaishou's foundational business, particularly its e-commerce segment, is undervalued, with monetization rates lagging behind other e-commerce platforms, necessitating a gradual increase in monetization without burdening merchants [2] - The stability of Kuaishou's fundamentals facilitates the upcoming AI transformation [2] Group 1: AI Transformation and Advertising Efficiency - AI has begun to transform Kuaishou's advertising business, initially improving monetization efficiency, a process expected to continue for over a year [3] - The optimization of Kuaishou's existing business model through AI has enhanced efficiency, offsetting additional costs from new technologies and creating new profit opportunities [3] - The advertising revenue formula indicates that revenue is closely tied to both "traffic" and "efficiency," highlighting the importance of improving monetization rates [7] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Response - In Q3 2025, Kuaishou's traffic grew by 5.8%, while advertising revenue surged by 14%, indicating a significant improvement in monetization efficiency [9] - The upgrade of Kuaishou's underlying recommendation and advertising systems to an AI-driven architecture has been a key factor in this revenue growth [10] - The shift towards AI-driven solutions, such as OneRec and G4RL, has improved targeting and resource allocation, leading to higher advertising spend from the same traffic [11][12] Group 3: Market Valuation and AI Bubble Concerns - Kuaishou's stock has seen significant appreciation, with a peak increase of over 200% this year, reflecting positive market sentiment towards its AI initiatives [17] - Concerns about an AI bubble have emerged, with skepticism regarding the sustainability of high capital expenditures without corresponding profit returns [20][21] - Despite aggressive capital spending, Kuaishou's EBITDA margin has improved, indicating that AI investments are enhancing operational stability rather than becoming a financial burden [23]

Core Points - The completion of the power supply for the F1-C1 building of the Kuaishou Intelligent Cloud Data Center project marks a significant milestone, indicating the project is moving into the equipment debugging and system integration phase [1][4] - The project team has meticulously prepared various operational plans to ensure smooth execution, demonstrating a commitment to high-quality performance and timely delivery [3][4] Project Execution - The project team prioritized the power supply work, developing detailed construction and electrical equipment supply plans, and effectively coordinating resources to meet project goals [3] - Despite challenges such as tight schedules and complex equipment, the team ensured seamless integration of personnel, materials, and machinery, achieving significant milestones in a short timeframe [3] - Over 800 workers have been actively engaged in the project, laying more than 450,000 meters of various cables and completing the installation of numerous electrical components within three months [3] Impact on Digital Economy - The successful power supply is a critical milestone for the data center, which will support Kuaishou's core technologies in big data and artificial intelligence, contributing to the digital economy development in Inner Mongolia [4]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou's Q3 performance shows a revenue increase of 13% to 35.6 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 1% [1] - Adjusted net profit rose by 26% to 5 billion, surpassing expectations by 2.3% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from live streaming, advertising, and e-commerce grew by 3%, 14%, and 41% year-on-year, respectively [1][2] - Advertising revenue in Q3 increased by 14%, slightly above expectations, with a 16% increase when excluding overseas revenue [2] Business Outlook - Management anticipates revenue could reach 1.4 billion USD by 2025 [1] - Q4 advertising revenue is expected to grow by 13%, while overall capital expenditure is projected to rise by 2 billion to 14 billion [1] AI and Technology Developments - The Kuaishou Turbo 2.5 update has solidified its position among the top global technologies, with significant enhancements in text understanding and sequence control [2] - AI tools have improved operational efficiency, with over 99% of content error reviews and over 70% of user inquiries handled by AI [2] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce and other revenues accelerated by 41% year-on-year, with GMV increasing by 15% [2] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, Kuaishou invested 18 billion in platform traffic incentives, achieving performance in line with expectations [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted by -0.6%, 0.6%, and 2.4%, primarily due to a slowdown in e-commerce consumption [2] - Target price has been raised to 89.4 HKD, reflecting anticipated revenue contributions from Kuaishou's AI developments [2]

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations with revenue of 35.6 billion yuan, a 14% year-on-year increase, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 4.99 billion yuan, slightly above the forecast of 4.82 billion yuan [1][2] Revenue Growth - Q3 2025 advertising revenue accelerated with a 14% year-on-year increase, driven by technological improvements in full-site promotion and UAX, enhancing conversion efficiency [1] - Total GMV for Q3 2025 grew by 15% to 385 billion yuan, with over 32% of GMV coming from the general merchandise category, which outpaced the overall market growth [1] AI Strategy and Implementation - The AI strategy is progressing, with the multi-modal foundational model generating over 300 million yuan in revenue during Q3, a significant increase from previous quarters [2] - AI models have enhanced advertising and e-commerce operations, contributing to a 4-5% increase in domestic advertising revenue and a nearly 5% rise in search volume for e-commerce [2] Cost Management - The company demonstrated strong cost control in Q3 2025, with management expenses significantly lower than expected, primarily due to reduced SBC costs [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 4 percentage points to 29.3%, attributed to improved marketing efficiency [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The Non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 3% to 20.6 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast was lowered by 7% to 22 billion yuan due to AI capital expenditure [3] - The current price corresponds to 12.5/11.5 times the Non-IFRS P/E for 2025/2026, with a target price of 89 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40% [3]

Core Insights - Kuaishou's revenue and profit slightly exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, achieving total revenue of 35.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% compared to the consensus estimate of 35.3 billion RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services revenue reached 20.1 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus estimate of 19.87 billion RMB, driven by the OneRec model and AIGC marketing materials [2] - Other services, including e-commerce, generated 5.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 5.66 billion RMB [2] - E-commerce GMV was 385 billion RMB, a 15.2% year-on-year increase, aligning closely with the consensus estimate of 383.9 billion RMB [2] - Live streaming revenue was 9.57 billion RMB, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, but below the consensus estimate of 9.79 billion RMB [2] Cost Management and Profitability - Gross margin was 54.7%, slightly below the expected 55.2%, due to a 24% increase in revenue-sharing costs [1] - Operating profit reached 5.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 69.9%, supported by effective cost control [1] - Adjusted net profit was 4.99 billion RMB, up 26.3% year-on-year, exceeding the consensus estimate of 4.83 billion RMB [1] AI and Technology Developments - Kuaishou's AI revenue exceeded 300 million RMB in Q3 2025, showing growth from 250 million RMB in Q2 2025, with over 45 million global users and significant content generation [3] - The company is expected to benefit from enhanced advertising capabilities and operational efficiencies in e-commerce, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 slightly increased [3]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou Live has officially launched the second phase of its custom exclusive gift effect "AI Wanshang," enhancing user experience through technological upgrades in AI and live streaming [1] Group 1: Product Features - The second phase of "AI Wanshang" retains its user-friendly advantages while significantly improving dynamic display, host-fan interaction, and aesthetic effects [1] - Currently, "AI Wanshang" offers over ten types of gifts that users can personalize for occasions such as birthdays and holidays [1]

Core Insights - Kuaishou reported a 14.2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching 35.554 billion yuan, with operating profit increasing by 69.9% to 5.299 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising by 26.3% to 4.986 billion yuan [2][3][4] - The company has been focusing on AI-related business, with the AI product Keling generating over 300 million yuan in revenue in Q3, contributing to the overall growth strategy [3][4][6] - Kuaishou's advertising revenue, which remains the primary income source, saw a 14% increase to 20.1 billion yuan, driven by enhanced marketing material exposure and improved CPM due to AI technologies [3][4][8] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 was 35.554 billion yuan, a 14.2% increase year-on-year [2] - Operating profit reached 5.299 billion yuan, up 69.9% year-on-year [2] - Adjusted net profit was 4.986 billion yuan, reflecting a 26.3% year-on-year growth [2] - Online marketing service revenue accounted for 56.5% of total revenue, with a 14% increase to 20.1 billion yuan [3][4] AI Business Development - Keling AI revenue exceeded 300 million yuan in Q3, with a significant increase from previous quarters [3][4] - Kuaishou plans to increase capital expenditures (CapEx) significantly, focusing on computing power upgrades and technology deepening, with expectations of mid-to-high double-digit growth by 2025 [5][6] - The company is investing in both inference and training computing power for AI, indicating a long-term commitment to AI development [4][6] Market Position and Competition - Kuaishou's AI strategy is primarily focused on video generation models, which have shown potential for monetization through paid subscription models [3][7] - The competitive landscape includes established players like ByteDance and emerging startups, necessitating a robust strategy for C-end applications [7][9] - The company is exploring growth opportunities in the life services sector and content consumption industries, leveraging AI to enhance advertising effectiveness [8][9] Future Outlook - Kuaishou's management expressed confidence in achieving a year-on-year increase in adjusted operating profit margin despite rising AI-related costs [6][8] - The company aims to enhance user engagement and increase average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) as key drivers for future e-commerce growth [9]

Financial Performance - Kuaishou Technology reported total revenue of 35.6 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [2] - Adjusted net profit reached 5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, indicating stable operational growth [2] - Revenue from online marketing services was 20.1 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year; live streaming revenue was 9.6 billion yuan, growing 2.5% year-on-year; other services, including e-commerce and Keling AI, generated 5.9 billion yuan, marking a significant growth of 41.3% [2] Keling AI Performance - Keling AI's revenue for Q3 exceeded 300 million yuan, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2] - The CFO disclosed that Keling AI's full-year revenue is projected to reach 1.4 billion yuan, exceeding the initial target of 600 million yuan by over 100% [2] - Keling AI's revenue growth has slowed in Q3 compared to the previous quarters, with Q1 and Q2 revenues of over 150 million yuan and 250 million yuan, respectively [3] Industry Competition - The video generation sector is experiencing intensified competition, particularly with the entry of Baidu and the launch of its free version of the Steam Engine model [3] - OpenAI's release of the Sora 2 model has also heightened market attention, prompting increased R&D efforts among various companies in the video generation space [3][4] - Kuaishou's CEO noted that the expansion of participants in the video generation field reflects its significant development potential and market value, although the technology is still in a developmental stage [4] Strategic Focus - Kuaishou's current strategy for Keling AI is to focus on the "AI film creation scene," while remaining adaptable to various application scenarios [6] - The company aims to enhance user experience and willingness to pay among professional creators, while exploring consumer applications as the market matures [6] - Kuaishou has increased its investment in computing power to meet the growing demand for video generation models, ensuring competitive technological capabilities [6]

快手-W(1024.HK)发布公告，该公司于2025年11月20日斥资约5821.17万港元回购90万股B类普通股，回 购价格为每股64.4港元至64.95港元。 ...