Core Insights - Kuaishou Technology reported Q3 2025 earnings with revenue of 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1] - The company achieved a total operating profit of 5.3 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of approximately 14.9% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 5 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of about 14.0% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services, live streaming, and other services generated revenues of 20.1 billion, 9.6 billion, and 5.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.0%, 2.5%, and 41.3% [1] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce GMV grew by 15.2% year-on-year to 385 billion yuan, with a healthy development in the average buyer structure and active user repurchase frequency [2] - The share of general merchandise e-commerce GMV exceeded 32%, indicating strong growth [2] AI Integration - AI models like OneSearch and OneRec contributed to a significant increase in e-commerce order volume and advertising revenue, with OneRec driving domestic online advertising revenue growth of approximately 4%-5% [2] - The introduction of the Keling 2.5 Turbo model improved performance while reducing video generation costs by about 30%, enhancing its commercial viability [3] Future Projections - The company expects revenues of 141.5 billion, 155 billion, and 167 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 11%, 10%, and 8% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 20.5 billion, 24.8 billion, and 27.8 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 16%, 21%, and 12% respectively [3] Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 94 HKD based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2026 [3]

机构：国海证券 研究员：陈梦竹/尹芮 事件: 11 月19 日，公司公告2025Q3 季报，本季度实现营收355.54 亿元（YoY+14.2%，QoQ+1.4%），毛利率 为54.7%，实现营业利润52.99亿元，净利润44.89 亿元，经调整净利润49.86 亿元。 我们的观点： 4、电商及其他业务：2025Q3 电商及其他业务收入同比增长41.3%至59 亿元。电商GMV 同比增长15.2% 至3,850 亿元，主要受益于多元惠商政策、全域流量扶持、AI 智能工具赋能等举措，持续提升用户体 验。2025Q3 泛货架电商实现GMV 持续超大盘增长，占比突破32%，OneSearch 与OneRec 的应用分别推 动搜索订单量提升近5.0%，并带来Feed 流GMV 高单位数增长。此外，AIGC 内容生产、商家提效和提 升商品匹配效率三大方向实现电商业务的全链路赋能。AIGC 素材生成与优化能力有效提升商家在不同 场域的转化效率，智能直播切片和直播间AI 智能讲解概要的渗透率不断提升，AI商品经营助手助力商 家降本增效，生成优质数据。此外，基于电商知识图谱的可解释推荐应用于预测用户的潜在、长期兴 趣，在提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology [3][6]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The revenue from online marketing services, live streaming, and other services was 20.1 billion, 9.6 billion, and 5.9 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14.0%, 2.5%, and 41.3% [1]. - The company's operating profit for the quarter was 5.3 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of approximately 14.9%. The non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.0 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of about 14.0% [1]. - E-commerce GMV grew robustly, increasing by 15.2% year-on-year to 385 billion yuan, with a healthy development in the average buyer structure and active user repurchase frequency [1][2]. - The AI models, such as OneRec and G4RL, have become new drivers for advertising revenue growth, contributing approximately 4%-5% to domestic online advertising revenue [2]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for Kuaishou from 2025 to 2027 are 141.5 billion, 155.0 billion, and 167.0 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 10%, and 8% respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 20.5 billion, 24.8 billion, and 27.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16%, 21%, and 12% [3][5]. - The adjusted EPS for the same period is projected to be 4.8, 5.8, and 6.5 yuan, with a net asset return rate of 25.6%, 24.2%, and 21.8% respectively [5][12]. - The target price for Kuaishou is set at 94 HKD based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2026 estimates [3].

Q3业绩表现 公司业绩超预期：25Q3收入为355.54亿元，yoy+14.2%。经调整净利润为49.86亿元，yoy+26.3%，经调 整净利润率为14.0%，yoy+1.3pct，公司利润好于一致预期。 AI大模型对快手生态变现的助力正逐渐体现 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，维持快手-W(01024)"买入"评级，第三季度业绩超预期，营 收与经调整净利润均实现稳健增长。增长主要得益于AI大模型(如OneRec)在广告和电商场景的成功应 用，显著提升了变现效率。电商GMV表现亮眼，同时，继续看好公司主业在AI赋能下提高变现效率， 同时看好可灵增长潜力，或将成为新的增长点。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 1)25Q3公司直播业务收入实现96亿元，yoy+2.5%;2)线上营销服务收入201亿元，yoy+14.0%;3)包括电商 收入在内的其他服务收入59亿元，yoy+41.3%。电商GMV同比增长15.2%达3850亿元，随着公司进一步 深化内容场和泛货架场的协同，叠加AI大模型赋能，该行预计Q4公司广告及电商业务继续保持高于行 业的同比增速水平，主业整体稳健增长。 期待可灵技术突破驱动流水增长 Q3可灵 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 35.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%. Adjusted net profit was 4.99 billion RMB, up 26% year-on-year [10][4] - The company is focusing on AI to drive growth in its core business, with significant advancements in its AI video product, Keling, which achieved quarterly revenue exceeding 300 million RMB [4][32] - The company has improved its gross margin to 55.1%, primarily due to enhanced server efficiency and reduced content costs [10][4] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue breakdown: Domestic revenue was 34.4 billion RMB (up 15% YoY), while overseas revenue was 1.15 billion RMB (down 13% YoY) [10][4] - The adjusted profit margin for Q3 2025 was 14.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [10][4] - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were 3.7 billion RMB, an 18% increase year-on-year [10][4] User Engagement Metrics - The total monthly active users (MAU) for Q3 2025 was 731 million, a 2% increase year-on-year, while daily active users (DAU) reached 416 million, also up 2% year-on-year [2][17] - The average daily usage time per user was 134 minutes, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [2][17] Commercialization Efforts - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 15% year-on-year, with revenue from live e-commerce increasing by 41% [3][23] - Advertising revenue for Q3 2025 was 20.1 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, driven by advancements in AI technology [3][28] - Live streaming revenue reached 9.6 billion RMB, showing a 3% year-on-year increase [3][28] Future Outlook - The company has raised its revenue forecast for Keling to 1 billion RMB for the year, driven by successful AI advancements [4][32] - The adjusted profit projections for 2025-2027 are 20.7 billion RMB, 23.5 billion RMB, and 26.6 billion RMB respectively [4][33]

Core Insights - The company achieved steady revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and net profit of 4.49 billion yuan, up 37% year-on-year [1] - The integration of AI technology is enhancing the core business and accelerating the commercialization of its products, leading to a maintained "buy" rating [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 35.6 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit at 4.99 billion yuan, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase [1] - Online marketing service revenue reached 20.1 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year, driven by continuous upgrades in marketing products using AI technology [1] - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 54.7%, with net profit margin increasing by 2.1 percentage points to 12.6% [1] AI Technology and Innovation - The company has upgraded its online marketing products with the launch of the OneRec generative recommendation model and the G4RL bidding model, contributing to a 4-5% increase in online marketing service revenue [2] - The AI-driven features, such as the UAX automated advertising system, have achieved over 70% penetration in external circulation [2] - The launch of the AI-powered gift customization feature in live streaming resulted in over 100,000 paid gifts sent on the first day [2] E-commerce Growth - The company reported a Q3 2025 GMV of 385 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, supported by a growing user base and enhanced product offerings [3] - Daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) reached new highs of 416 million and 731 million, respectively, with average daily usage time of 134.1 minutes [3] - The company continues to attract merchants and enhance product variety, which is expected to sustain high growth in e-commerce GMV and revenue [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a stable core business, with AI empowering advertising and e-commerce to accelerate growth in the second half of the year, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 and a target price of HKD 102.81, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] E-commerce Performance - Q3 e-commerce revenue exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 21%, surpassing the previous forecast of 16%, driven by value-added services such as influencer distribution and marketing management [1] - The company anticipates a Q4 e-commerce GMV growth of 13%, with commission and internal advertising revenue expected to grow by 17% and 13% respectively [1] Advertising Growth - Domestic advertising growth remains robust, with AI support expected to sustain long-term growth; Q1-Q4 year-on-year growth rates are projected at 6%, 12%, 16%, and 14% respectively, with a 15% increase in the second half of the year [1] - The company reported a positive outlook on AI empowerment, estimating that OneRec contributed approximately 4%-5% to Q3 revenue [1] Financial Projections - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for Q3 to over USD 300 million, with an annual target of USD 1.4 billion, indicating stable Q4 revenue driven by price reductions [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at CNY 204 billion, 225 billion, and 259 billion respectively, reflecting an upward revision for 2025 and a slight downward adjustment for 2026 due to increased investments in AI and core business [2][3] Valuation - Using a PE valuation method, the company is assigned an 18x PE for 2026, resulting in a reasonable value of CNY 404.8 billion, equivalent to HKD 444.5 billion, with a target price of HKD 102.81 per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 102.81 HKD per share, based on a PE valuation method [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The company's e-commerce commission revenue showed strong performance in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 21%, driven by value-added services such as influencer distribution and marketing management [7]. - AI empowerment is expected to enhance advertising efficiency, contributing to stable growth in domestic advertising revenue, projected to grow by 15% in the second half of the year [7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards, reflecting positive trends in e-commerce and controlled sales expenses [3][7]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 182.87 billion CNY, with further increases to 214.57 billion CNY in 2026 and 247.70 billion CNY in 2027 [3][8]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 126.90 billion CNY in 2024 to 142.05 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.9% [3][8]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 54.6% in 2024 to 56.8% in 2027, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [3][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at 4,048 billion CNY based on a PE ratio of 18x for 2026, translating to a market cap of 4,445 billion HKD [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 3.56 CNY in 2024 to 5.77 CNY in 2027, reflecting strong profit growth [3][8].

Core Insights - Kuaishou is advancing its AI strategy, achieving both growth quality and profitability improvements while maintaining continuous investment [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with core business revenue growing by 19.2% [2] - Operating profit increased by 69.9% to 5.3 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit rose by 26.3% to 5 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 14% [2] User Metrics - Average daily active users reached 416 million, marking a historical high for three consecutive quarters, while average monthly active users reached 731 million [2] - User engagement improved, with daily private message penetration among dual-active users increasing by over 3% year-on-year [2] AI Integration in Business - Kuaishou is deepening the application of AI technology across content and commercial scenarios, enhancing efficiency in key areas such as content understanding and marketing optimization [2][3] - The OneRec generative recommendation model and G4RL bidding model contributed approximately 4-5% incremental revenue to online marketing services [3] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce GMV grew by 15.2% year-on-year to 385 billion yuan, supported by various policies and tools that enhance user retention and trust [5] - The introduction of OneSearch improved product matching and user understanding, leading to a nearly 5% increase in search order volume [5] Video Production Capabilities - Kuaishou's AI video model, Keling 2.5 Turbo, has significantly improved video generation capabilities, reducing costs by approximately 30% [6][7] - The Keling AI platform has surpassed 45 million global users, generating over 200 million videos and 400 million images [7] Financial Outlook - The CFO indicated that Kuaishou's AI-related revenue is expected to exceed 1.4 billion USD for the year, more than doubling the initial target [8] Community and Content Engagement - The community interaction has strengthened, with daily private message penetration among dual-active users increasing by over 3% year-on-year [10] - Kuaishou's live streaming revenue reached 9.6 billion yuan, with a healthy growth in the number of signed agencies and streamers [11] International Expansion - Kuaishou is focusing on high-quality growth in international markets, particularly in Brazil, while optimizing customer acquisition and maintaining steady development [11]

当一众媒体还在为 Gemini 3 Pro 的上线惊呼"变天""地震""炸裂"时，一家中国大厂已喊出 AI 单品年赚 10 亿的目标——令人意外的是，这款 AI 单品并非出 自聚光灯下的阿里、腾讯、百度，也非出自字节跳动、月之暗面等水下的独角兽，而是昔日下沉市场"四大天王"之一的快手。 其底气源自 2025Q3 超预期的财报表现：营收同比增长 14.2% 达 355.54 亿元，创近 6 个季度最好同比增速；其中，可灵 AI 单季度营收超 3 亿元——无论模 型优势还是盈利能力均走在本轮 Al 浪潮前列。 出品｜虎嗅黄青春频道 作者｜商业消费主笔 黄青春 题图｜视觉中国 同期，快手经营利润同比增长 69.9% 达 53 亿元，经调整净利润同比增长 26.3% 至 49.9 亿元——这一利润水平已比肩许多明星大厂，京东 Q3 归母净利润 53 亿，百度甚至亏损 112 亿。 事实上，自 2023 年 AI 热浪席卷互联网至今，大厂叙事里 AI 一直是"吞金兽"的角色——不仅吃掉了买量/资本开支/销售及市场推广的大头，还在不断挤占 现金流及业务资源；但快手却实现了 AI 业务的商业化突破——在 11 月 19 日 ...