Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Insights - OpenAI's release of the Sora 2 video generation model and the Sora App is expected to accelerate the demand for AI-generated content (AIGC) [3][6]. - Sora 2 features significant advancements in image resolution, style control, and instruction adherence, integrating audio-video synchronization technology to enhance physical simulation accuracy [4]. - The Sora App, designed similarly to TikTok, allows users to create AI-generated videos up to 10 seconds long and includes a "Cameo" feature for digital avatars, which could create new monetization opportunities for IP holders [5][6]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected financials for Kuaishou include: - Revenue growth from CNY 660.26 billion in 2024 to CNY 865.93 billion in 2027, reflecting an annual growth rate of approximately 8% to 11% [19]. - Net profit is expected to increase from CNY 194.07 billion in 2024 to CNY 268.42 billion in 2027, with a net profit growth rate of 8% to 18% [19]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to rise from CNY 24.15 in 2024 to CNY 34.12 in 2027 [19]. - Key financial ratios include: - ROE is projected to decrease from 20% in 2024 to 17% in 2027 [19]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 53% in 2024 to 58% in 2027 [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Insights - OpenAI's release of the Sora 2 video generation model and the Sora App is expected to significantly boost the demand for AI-generated content, creating new opportunities in the social media landscape [3][6]. - Sora 2 features advancements in image resolution, style control, and instruction adherence, integrating audio-visual synchronization to enhance realism in generated videos [4][5]. - The Sora App, designed similarly to TikTok, allows users to create and share AI-generated videos, fostering a new social ecosystem around AI content creation [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kuaishou is positioned as a leader in the AI video sector, with its AI-generated video capabilities showing strong performance and continuous improvement [6]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of Sora 2 is anticipated to reshape the short video ecosystem, potentially increasing the proportion of AI-generated content and narrowing the gap with platforms like Douyin [6]. Financial Projections - The financial outlook includes projected revenues of 660,257 million in 2024, increasing to 865,930 million by 2027, with a net profit growth rate of 68% in 2024 [19].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 快手科技（於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司） 呈交日期: 2025年10月8日 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01024 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81024 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,591,333,495 | | | 0 | | 3,591,333,495 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 9,179 ...

Core Insights - The rapid growth of short video platforms is transforming digital marketing for businesses, with Kuaishou's monthly active users exceeding 600 million and average daily usage time surpassing 120 minutes, making it a crucial traffic source for enterprises [1][3] - Kuaishou's enterprise account creates a complete commercial loop of "content-traffic-conversion," leveraging smart recommendation systems and various business tools to lower the digitalization threshold for merchants [3][4] - The demand for specialized digital service talents is increasing due to the commercialization of short videos, requiring skills in content planning, data analysis, and business conversion [5][6] Industry Trends - The future of short video marketing will see richer interactive forms with the maturation of AI technology and the metaverse concept, with innovations like virtual live streaming and 3D product displays expected to become mainstream by 2025 [8][9] - Continuous operation of enterprise accounts can establish stable traffic sources within 3-6 months, with high-quality accounts achieving a fan repurchase rate of over 40% [7] - Compliance in promotional services is essential, emphasizing accurate information, respect for merchant autonomy, and adherence to platform rules to maintain a healthy commercial ecosystem [6]

Core Points - Kuaishou has launched its pre-sale for the Double Eleven shopping festival, offering discounts on popular products and early benefits from its influencer team [1] - The company plans to invest a total of 3 billion yuan in red envelopes and product subsidies for this year's event [1]

智通财经APP获悉，富瑞发布研报称，预计快手-W(01024)将可如期达成该行对其收入和盈利的预测， 即料第三季总收入同比增长13%至353亿元人民币；交易总额(GMV)料升15%；毛利率料扩张至约55%； 非IFRS盈利料达约48.4亿元人民币。该行强调，人工智能是一个关键范畴，而影片生成是一个处于早期 发展阶段的庞大市场。该行维持快手"买入"评级，目标价106港元。 ...

富瑞发布研报称，预计快手-W(01024)将可如期达成该行对其收入和盈利的预测，即料第三季总收入同 比增长13%至353亿元人民币；交易总额(GMV)料升15%；毛利率料扩张至约55%；非IFRS盈利料达约 48.4亿元人民币。该行强调，人工智能是一个关键范畴，而影片生成是一个处于早期发展阶段的庞大市 场。该行维持快手"买入"评级，目标价106港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou has made a strategic organizational adjustment focusing on its core commercial system, which includes advertising, e-commerce, and local services, indicating a shift towards more efficient operations and resource allocation [1][10][57]. Group 1: Organizational Changes - Kuaishou's recent adjustment involves the reorganization of its local services department, which has been renamed and integrated into the commercial system, indicating a consolidation of power under Wang Jianwei [5][11][30]. - The departure of Xiaogu from the local services department and his transition to a business consultant role reflects a significant shift in leadership and strategy within Kuaishou [5][12][40]. - The adjustment is seen as a move to reduce internal conflicts and enhance operational efficiency by centralizing decision-making authority [13][15]. Group 2: Strategic Alignment - The adjustment aligns with recent changes in Douyin's commercialization strategy, suggesting that Kuaishou is following a similar path to enhance its competitive positioning [3][4]. - Kuaishou's focus is shifting from expanding user base and advertising inventory to improving efficiency and maximizing the return on investment (ROI) from existing resources [24][26][31]. - The integration of local services into the commercial system indicates a reduced emphasis on this segment as a standalone growth driver, reflecting a more cautious approach to resource allocation [30][38]. Group 3: Advertising and Revenue Model - The role of advertising within Kuaishou has transitioned from being a primary growth engine to a supportive function within the ecosystem, emphasizing stability over aggressive growth [42][56]. - The company aims to optimize advertising efficiency rather than merely increasing inventory, focusing on enhancing the value of each advertisement displayed [53][55]. - Kuaishou's advertising revenue growth is now driven by improved monetization efficiency rather than user growth, as indicated by stable daily active users (DAU) and average usage time [47][48][50].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 3%, reaching a nearly four-year high, driven by gains in major tech stocks such as Kuaishou, Baidu, Alibaba, JD.com, and Tencent [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 9.2% in September, with valuations of Hong Kong internet giants converging rapidly with those of their overseas counterparts [1] - Analysts believe that domestic tech giants are entering a phase of increased AI investment, similar to the significant capital expenditures seen from Microsoft and Meta in mid-2023 [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley raised Alibaba's target price to HKD 240, citing a continuous acceleration in Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth, driven by demand in generative AI across various sectors [2] - Guotai Junan Securities adjusted Baidu's target price to HKD 176, maintaining an "overweight" rating, as the market begins to reassess the commercial viability of Baidu's AI initiatives [2] - Dongfang Securities noted that Kuaishou could maintain its leading position through model iteration, with the 2.5 Turbo version expected to drive user growth and revenue due to a combination of performance upgrades and a 30% price reduction [2]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou's multi-modal capabilities are expected to maintain a leading position through iterative improvements, with the 2.5 Turbo version likely to drive user growth and revenue due to a combination of performance upgrades and a 30% price reduction [1] Group 1: Product Development - The Kuaishou 2.5 Turbo model has significantly enhanced text understanding, providing more refined responses and logical comprehension [1] - Improvements in dynamic quality have resulted in smoother and more stable video performance, reducing issues of distortion and incoherence [1] - Aesthetic upgrades have enhanced visual appeal, including better composition and lighting [1] - The "Ling Animation Canvas" feature has been fully launched to support creator collaboration [1] Group 2: Pricing Strategy - The price of the Kuaishou 2.5 Turbo has been reduced by 30%, making it more cost-effective at 25 Linggan values for a high-quality 5-second video, compared to 35 Linggan values for the 2.1 version [2] - The pricing advantage is notable when compared to competitors, with Kuaishou priced at 0.5 CNY per second, while competitors like Seedance1.0 and Veo3 are priced at 0.64 CNY and 0.87 CNY per second, respectively [2] Group 3: Commercialization and Efficiency - Kuaishou has made significant progress in enhancing commercialization efficiency through AI, particularly in e-commerce and advertising [3] - The OneSearch framework has been deployed in multiple e-commerce search scenarios, serving millions of daily active users and generating millions of page views, leading to stable improvements in click-through rates [3] - The implementation of generative reinforcement learning in advertising has resulted in over a 3% increase in advertising revenue since 2025 [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 19.6 billion CNY, 23 billion CNY, and 25.9 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] - Based on comparable company valuations, a 17x PE ratio for 2026 suggests a reasonable valuation of 391.1 billion CNY, equivalent to 428.1 billion HKD, with a target price of 99.07 HKD per share [3]