港股通(深)活跃成交股 10月9日港股市场，北水成交净买入30.43港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入48.53亿港元，港股通(深)成交净卖出18.1亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是快手-W(01024)、中兴通讯(00763)、小米集团-W(01810)。北水净卖出最多的个股是中芯国际 (00981)、华虹半导体(01347)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)。 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | 阿里巴巴-W HK 09988 | 66.17 亿 | 73.67 亿 | 139.84亿 | | | | | -7.51 亿 | | 中芯国际 | 66.75亿 | 70.23亿 | 136.97 亿 | | HK 00981 | | | -3.48 Z | | 交町未营体 | 29.46亿 | 35.80亿 | 65.26亿 | | HK 01347 | | | -6.34 Z | | 晶泰控股 | 20.20亿 | 20.17 乙 | 40.38亿 | | HK 02228 | | | +315.28 万 | | ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 30.43 million HKD from Northbound trading on October 9, with a net buy of 48.53 billion HKD through the Shanghai Stock Connect and a net sell of 18.1 billion HKD through the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kuaishou-W (01024) received the highest net buy of 10.85 billion HKD, driven by positive sentiment from a report by Guosen Securities highlighting its leadership in the AI video sector [4] - ZTE Corporation (00763) had a net buy of 4.57 billion HKD, supported by the launch of its SuperPod solution aimed at enhancing AI training capabilities for enterprise clients [5] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net buy of 2.31 billion HKD, with September electric vehicle deliveries exceeding 40,000 units, reflecting improved production capacity [5] - Alibaba-W (09988) faced a net sell of 7.5 billion HKD, influenced by negative news regarding Oracle's server rental income [6] - Semiconductor stocks, including SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), experienced significant net sells of 23.96 billion HKD and 11.41 billion HKD respectively, attributed to changes in margin financing policies [7] Group 2: Market Trends - The overall trading activity indicates a strong interest in AI-related companies, with Kuaishou and ZTE being highlighted for their advancements in AI technology [4][5] - The semiconductor sector is under pressure due to high valuations and regulatory changes affecting margin trading, despite a general bullish outlook on AI-driven growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou-W (01024) shares rose over 4%, reaching HKD 89.2 with a trading volume of HKD 4.677 billion, driven by the anticipated impact of OpenAI's new video generation model Sora2 on the short video ecosystem [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from advancements in AI video technology, positioning itself as a leader in the AI video sector [1] - The company is projected to achieve a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching RMB 35.3 billion, with a 15% increase in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) [1] - Kuaishou's gross margin is expected to expand to approximately 55%, with non-IFRS profit estimated at around RMB 4.84 billion [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - OpenAI's Sora2 is anticipated to reshape the short video ecosystem, potentially increasing the proportion of AI-generated content and narrowing the content gap between other short video platforms and Douyin [1] - The development of AI video models is seen as a significant trend, with the market for video generation being in its early stages and poised for substantial growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou-W (01024) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 89.2 HKD with a transaction volume of 4.677 billion HKD, driven by the anticipated impact of OpenAI's new video generation model Sora 2 on the short video ecosystem [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from advancements in AI video technology, positioning itself as a leader in the AI video sector [1] - The company is projected to achieve a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching approximately 35.3 billion RMB, with a total transaction volume (GMV) expected to rise by 15% [1] - Kuaishou's gross margin is anticipated to expand to around 55%, with non-IFRS profit estimated at about 4.84 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - OpenAI's launch of Sora 2 is expected to reshape the short video ecosystem, potentially increasing the share of AI-generated content and narrowing the gap between other short video platforms and Douyin [1] - The AI video generation market is identified as a large and early-stage development area, highlighting the significance of artificial intelligence in the industry [1]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月08日 快手-W（01024.HK） OpenAI 发布 Sora APP，AIGC 需求加速增长 1 优于大市 公司研究·海外公司快评 互联网·互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 张伦可 0755-81982651 zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521120004 证券分析师： 陈淑媛 021-60375431 chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980524030003 事项： OpenAI 于 2025 年 9 月 30 日发布的新一代视频生成模型 Sora 2 和 Sora APP，发布后在社交媒体火爆出圈。 国信互联网观点： 作为"世界模拟器"的升级版本，Sora 2 在图像分辨率、风格操控和指令遵循方面均有突破。Sora2 通过 整合音视频同步生成技术，实现画面与环境音、物体交互声及对话的匹配，并显著提升物理仿真精度，能 模拟体操动作、跳水力学等真实世界动态。 OpenAI 同步推出了独立的 Sora App，从工具到社交平台，构建了一个集创作、分发、互动于一体的 AI 原 生社 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Insights - OpenAI's release of the Sora 2 video generation model and the Sora App is expected to significantly boost the demand for AI-generated content, creating new opportunities in the social media landscape [3][6]. - Sora 2 features advancements in image resolution, style control, and instruction adherence, integrating audio-visual synchronization to enhance realism in generated videos [4][5]. - The Sora App, designed similarly to TikTok, allows users to create and share AI-generated videos, fostering a new social ecosystem around AI content creation [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kuaishou is positioned as a leader in the AI video sector, with its AI-generated video capabilities showing strong performance and continuous improvement [6]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of Sora 2 is anticipated to reshape the short video ecosystem, potentially increasing the proportion of AI-generated content and narrowing the gap with platforms like Douyin [6]. Financial Projections - The financial outlook includes projected revenues of 660,257 million in 2024, increasing to 865,930 million by 2027, with a net profit growth rate of 68% in 2024 [19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - OpenAI's Sora 2 was released on October 1, 2025, marking a significant advancement in AI video technology, with capabilities in audio generation that match visuals, improved physical simulation, realism, and controllability, enabling the handling of complex action scenes and multi-angle narratives [2][4] - The new Sora App, described as the "AI version of TikTok," introduces unique features such as Cameo guest appearances and Remix capabilities, potentially revolutionizing short video social media interactions and community engagement [2][4] Summary by Sections Event Description - OpenAI's Sora 2 release is anticipated to elevate AI video technology to a new level, akin to the impact of GPT-3.5, with significant improvements in video generation quality and capabilities [4] - The Sora App has quickly gained popularity, achieving 164,000 downloads within two days of its launch in the U.S. and Canada, reaching the top of the App Store rankings [9] Event Commentary - Sora 2's video generation capabilities have seen substantial enhancements, including a more precise physics engine, realistic visuals, synchronized audio, and greater control, allowing for high-fidelity video creation that adheres to physical laws [9] - The Sora App's innovative social interaction features, such as the Cameo function, are expected to create new business models and enhance user engagement with AI-generated content [9]

报告中称，多模态侧，快手可灵依靠底模迭代保持领先身位，2.5Turbo版本在"性能升级+降价30%"的组 合策略下，有望进一步带动用户增长和流水上行。主业方面，AI带动核心主业提效持续演绎，继此前 内容推荐OneRec提供社区生态健康度支撑，商业化系统的AI重构更是为主业稳健增长带来长效动能。 东方证券发布研报称，预测快手-W(01024)25-27年经调整归母净利润为196/230/259亿元。参考可比公司 给予公司26年17xPE估值，对应合理价值为3,911亿CNY，折合4,281亿HKD(港币兑人民币汇率0.914)， 目标价99.07港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities predicts Kuaishou-W (01024) adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 to be CNY 19.6 billion, CNY 23 billion, and CNY 25.9 billion respectively, with a target price of HKD 99.07 per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecast for Kuaishou-W is CNY 19.6 billion in 2025, CNY 23 billion in 2026, and CNY 25.9 billion in 2027 [1] - The estimated reasonable value of Kuaishou-W is CNY 391.1 billion, equivalent to HKD 428.1 billion, based on a 17x PE valuation for 2026 [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Performance - Kuaishou is expected to leverage its bottom model iteration to maintain a leading position, with the 2.5 Turbo version anticipated to drive user growth and revenue through a combination of performance upgrades and a 30% price reduction [1] - The core business is benefiting from AI-driven efficiency improvements, with the OneRec content recommendation system supporting community ecosystem health and AI restructuring of the commercialization system providing long-term growth momentum [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 3%, reaching a nearly four-year high, driven by gains in major tech stocks such as Kuaishou, Baidu, Alibaba, JD.com, and Tencent [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 9.2% in September, with valuations of Hong Kong internet giants converging rapidly with those of their overseas counterparts [1] - Analysts believe that domestic tech giants are entering a phase of increased AI investment, similar to the significant capital expenditures seen from Microsoft and Meta in mid-2023 [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley raised Alibaba's target price to HKD 240, citing a continuous acceleration in Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth, driven by demand in generative AI across various sectors [2] - Guotai Junan Securities adjusted Baidu's target price to HKD 176, maintaining an "overweight" rating, as the market begins to reassess the commercial viability of Baidu's AI initiatives [2] - Dongfang Securities noted that Kuaishou could maintain its leading position through model iteration, with the 2.5 Turbo version expected to drive user growth and revenue due to a combination of performance upgrades and a 30% price reduction [2]