Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments regarding Eli Lilly's GLP-1 receptor agonist, orforglipron, particularly its Phase 3 ATTAIN-Outcomes trial aimed at assessing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and/or chronic kidney disease (CKD) [2][3][4] - The ATTAIN-2 trial results for orforglipron in overweight or obese adults with type 2 diabetes showed significant weight loss and improvements in metabolic parameters, which have positively influenced market confidence [5][8][9] Group 1: Clinical Trials - Eli Lilly registered the Phase 3 ATTAIN-Outcomes trial on November 21, 2025, with an estimated enrollment of 7,140 participants and a follow-up period of five years, expected to complete by August 2031 [2][3][4] - The ATTAIN-2 trial involved a 72-week study where participants taking the highest dose of 36 mg lost an average of 10.5% of their body weight, equating to approximately 22.9 pounds [5][7] - All dosage groups in the ATTAIN-2 trial achieved weight loss, with the 12 mg group averaging a 7.8% reduction and the 6 mg group a 5.5% reduction, compared to a 2.2% reduction in the placebo group [7] Group 2: Market Impact and Future Prospects - The positive results from the ATTAIN-2 trial have restored market confidence regarding orforglipron's potential market share, especially in the diabetes treatment sector, which affects about 15% of U.S. adults [9] - Eli Lilly plans to present complete data at future medical conferences and is preparing for global regulatory submissions, indicating a strong commitment to advancing orforglipron's market presence [8][9] - The results from ATTAIN-2 contrast with the earlier ATTAIN-1 trial, which showed a 12.4% weight loss in a non-diabetic obese population but faced cautious market reactions due to competitive data [8]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has a market capitalization of $1 trillion, positioning it as a leading pharmaceutical innovator with a focus on metabolic diseases, oncology, neuroscience, and immunology [1][5] - The company is categorized as a "mega-cap" stock, with a diverse portfolio of therapies for cancer, autoimmune conditions, and neurological disorders, including Alzheimer's disease [2] - Eli Lilly's stock has shown significant growth, with a 50.4% increase over the past three months, outperforming the SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF's (XPH) 12.6% gains [3] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, Eli Lilly has gained 38.6%, surpassing XPH's 24% increase, and over the past 52 weeks, the stock has advanced 43.1% compared to the ETF's 14.4% rise [4] - The company achieved a 52-week high of $1,075.72 in the last trading session, indicating strong market performance [3] Market Position and Growth Drivers - Eli Lilly's recent growth has been driven by its leadership in the weight-loss and diabetes drug market, particularly with its treatments Zepbound and Mounjaro, which are experiencing high demand [5] - The company is also attracting investor interest due to promising clinical trial results for a new oral weight-loss drug [5] - Despite trailing Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) 42.5% year-to-date gain in 2025, Eli Lilly has outperformed JNJ in long-term returns, achieving a 32.8% gain over the past 52 weeks [6]

Core Insights - The MCE (myeloid cell engager) technology is rapidly gaining attention in the immunotherapy sector, with significant transactions indicating its strategic value among major pharmaceutical companies [1][4][6] - MCE's mechanism targets myeloid cells, potentially offering broader applications and reduced risks compared to TCE (T cell engager) therapies, which is a key factor in its appeal to large pharmaceutical firms [2][10] Group 1: Major Transactions and Collaborations - Novartis initiated interest in MCE by partnering with Dren Bio for $3 billion, aiming to develop a new class of bispecific antibodies using Dren's myeloid cell engager platform [4][5] - Sanofi followed by acquiring Dren Bio's promising CD20-targeting MCE, DR-0201, for an upfront payment of $600 million, with total milestone payments potentially reaching $1.9 billion [4][11] - GSK has also entered the MCE space by signing agreements for four MCE projects with Zealand Bio, integrating MCE into its broader ADC+IO Engager strategy [5][11] Group 2: Mechanism and Advantages of MCE - MCE operates through a "bind-activate-kill" mechanism, connecting myeloid cells with target cells, which enhances the immune response against tumors [7][10] - The targeting of tumor-associated myeloid cells (TAMCs) allows MCE to modulate the immune system more effectively, potentially overcoming limitations faced by TCE therapies in solid tumors [8][10] - MCE's ability to safely release pro-inflammatory factors reduces the risk of cytokine release syndrome (CRS), presenting a significant safety advantage over TCE [10][12] Group 3: Clinical Development and Future Potential - MCE is not merely a derivative of TCE but represents a new approach to harnessing innate immunity, with the potential to complement existing therapies like PD-1 and CAR-T [13][14] - The ongoing clinical trials and pipeline developments from companies like Dren Bio and Zeal Bio indicate a strong focus on both oncology and autoimmune diseases, showcasing MCE's versatility [11][14] - The growing interest from major pharmaceutical companies reflects the belief that MCE could fill critical gaps in the current immunotherapy landscape, leading to innovative treatment options [14]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company is set to present new data from its breast oncology portfolio at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium (SABCS) from December 9-12, 2025, highlighting advancements in treatments for ER+, HER2– metastatic breast cancer [1][2][5] Group 1: Inluriyo (imlunestrant) - Updated results from the Phase 3 EMBER-3 trial will be shared, focusing on Inluriyo alone and in combination with Verzenio in patients with ER+, HER2– advanced or metastatic breast cancer, including overall survival and progression-free survival analyses [2][5] - An exploratory analysis of early changes in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and its correlation to clinical outcomes will also be presented [2] Group 2: Verzenio (abemaciclib) - A subgroup analysis from the Phase 3 monarchE trial will evaluate the efficacy of adjuvant abemaciclib plus endocrine therapy based on nodal status in high-risk early breast cancer patients [3][5] - Recent results indicated that this combination therapy prolonged overall survival and improved invasive disease-free survival and distant relapse-free survival [3] Group 3: LY4064809 (STX-478) - Findings from the ongoing Phase 1/2 PIKALO-1 study of LY4064809, a pan-mutant-selective PI3K inhibitor, will be presented, including safety and efficacy data across various patient subgroups [4][5] - LY4064809 is planned to advance into the Phase 3 PIKALO-2 study, with ongoing dose optimization [4] Group 4: Company Commitment - Eli Lilly emphasizes its commitment to addressing key biological targets in HR+ breast cancer, including CDK4/6, estrogen receptor, and PI3K, reflecting the momentum of its breast oncology portfolio [5]

for more on Novo and Pharmaceutical spring and Guggenheim's biotech analyst Sheamus Fernandez. Sheamus, your take on the Novo results. Uh yeah, so I guess it's not too surprising to the overall market uh what happened here.This was a high-risisk reward clinical study for Nova Nordisk. Um it was well communicated by the company that way. But that being said, uh the company has had a lot of challenges this year, largely from competition from Eli Liy, but it also faces pretty challenging year in 2026 and poten ...

Competitive Landscape & Company Performance - Eli Lilly is outperforming Novo Nordisk due to superior execution and internal issues at Novo [2][3][5] - The market anticipates Alzheimer's data, but Lilly consistently beats expectations while Novo misses and cuts guidance [2] - Novo Nordisk's failed acquisition bid for Met Sarah indicates potential loss of momentum [3] - The analyst questions whether Novo Nordisk can recover to become an equal player in the GLP-1 duopoly [3] Valuation & Investment Strategies - The valuation gap between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk may be justified, but Novo Nordisk could become a value trap [4][5] - For value investing in healthcare, the analyst suggests considering Pfizer or Merck instead of Eli Lilly [4][5] - The analyst is not comfortable with Novo's trajectory and believes Lilly will continue to outperform in the coming years [5] Alternative Investment Opportunities - The analyst's top picks outside of GLP-1s include Disc Medicine (rare hematology play) and Gilead Sciences [6] - Gilead Sciences is a leader in HIV treatment and has a promising long-acting PrEP business and cell therapy [7]

Now for more on that healthc care space, let's bring in Evan Seager, the head of healthcare research over at Beimo Capital Markets. Evan, thank you very much for being here with us. Take us through the dynamic.I mean, GLP1s have been the focus for such a long time now. Is there anything that gets this competitive dynamic between Lily and Novo to close the gap a bit in the coming months and quarters. >> Well, first off, thank you for having me.And I think just today there's a lot of anticipation into this Al ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly has joined the exclusive trillionaire club, becoming the first healthcare company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by the success of its GLP-1 drug, tirzepatide [1][2] Company Performance - Eli Lilly's share price increased by 1.7% on November 21, briefly reaching a market cap of $1 trillion, before settling around $950 billion later that day. The company regained the $1 trillion cap in intra-day trading on the following Monday [2] - The company's shares have risen 38% in 2025 and 645% over the past five years, indicating strong growth potential [3] Market Dynamics - Tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss, has become the best-selling drug globally, surpassing Merck's Keytruda [5] - The GLP-1 medication market, valued at approximately $52 billion in 2024, is projected to grow to $187 billion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of nearly 17% [6] Competitive Position - Eli Lilly holds a dominant 58% share of the GLP-1 drug market as of the third quarter [6] - The company is set to release a pill form of its best-selling drug, further enhancing its market position [9] Regulatory Developments - In early November, Eli Lilly and competitor Novo Nordisk reached an agreement with the Trump administration to significantly reduce prices for their anti-obesity drugs for Medicare and Medicaid patients, in exchange for a three-year grace period from tariffs [10] - The price of Zepbound for Medicare and Medicaid patients will decrease from $1,000 to $299 for a month's supply, providing greater access to a large patient base [11]

Clinical Trial & Drug Performance - Novo's Alzheimer's drug trial (using weight loss drug MGovi) failed to meet its primary goal, showing no statistically significant slowing of Alzheimer's progression [1][2][3] - The trial results suggest that GLP-1s, while a new mechanism, may require combination with other drugs to be effective in treating Alzheimer's [8] - Biogen and Lily are considered the main players in the Alzheimer's space, with many other companies in earlier phases of development [8][9] Competitive Landscape & Market Share - Lily is perceived as consistently delivering best-in-class GLP-1 growth in obesity and diabetes, with a next product in orphagon [4] - Lily's Mjaro and Zetbound are growing significantly, taking market share from Novo [6] - Lily's market share has increased from 50% to approximately 75%, while Novo's has decreased to around 25% [11] Financial Analysis & Future Outlook - Analyst has a street-high target of $1500 for Lily, driven by the company's core business in the US [5] - Lily is expected to benefit significantly from locking in Medicare and Medicaid payer segments in the next 2-3 years, offsetting lower prices with higher volumes [10] - The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for obesity and diabetes drugs is expected to grow dramatically with expanded access to Medicare and Medicaid [12][14] - Analyst suggests that Lily is a better investment than Novo due to its pipeline, growth in the US and internationally, and overall investment in the space [13]

Company Overview - Novo's shares have fallen to a four-year low following the failure of its Alzheimer's drug trial, which did not meet its primary goal of slowing disease progression [1] - The trial results for Novo's weight loss drug MGovi were disappointing, leading to a significant drop in investor confidence [2] Market Comparison - There is a notable disparity in share prices between Novo and its competitor Lilly, with Lilly continuing to perform well in the GLP-1 market for obesity and diabetes [3][4] - Lilly's products, such as Mjaro and Zetbound, are experiencing significant growth and taking market share from Novo [6][11] Future Outlook - Despite the setback for Novo, there is still potential for GLP-1 drugs to be effective in treating Alzheimer's when combined with other therapies, indicating ongoing research opportunities in this area [8][9] - The total addressable market (TAM) for obesity drugs is expected to grow significantly, particularly with expanded access to Medicare and Medicaid [12] Investment Perspective - Analysts suggest that investing in Lilly may be more favorable than Novo, given Lilly's strong pipeline and growth trajectory in the obesity and diabetes sectors [13]