欧元计价信用违约保护成本小幅上升 金十数据7月16日讯，由于投资者担忧美国关税推高通胀，欧元计价的信用违约保护成本小幅上升。本 周公布的美国6月消费者价格指数数据显示，价格压力正在加大。德意志银行经济学家在一份报告中表 示："市场始终难以从'美国关税政策将引发多大通胀'的讨论中跳脱出来。"标普全球市场情报数据显 示，追踪欧元区高收益债券信用违约互换的iTraxx欧洲交叉指数上涨2个基点，至285个基点。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes the "Goldilocks" market is returning, driven by dovish expectations and reduced risks [1] - The macro environment is characterized by moderate economic growth and inflation, allowing central banks to maintain accommodative policies [1][5] - Despite recent macro data underperforming expectations, the market's focus has shifted towards the benefits of easing expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Macro risks are diminishing, and earnings expectations are improving, with a positive consensus on earnings per share (EPS) revisions in the past month [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is crucial for validating market optimism, with expectations for a 4% EPS growth, significantly lower than Q1's 12% [2] - The implied correlation of stocks has been declining since April, indicating expectations for differentiated performance among individual stocks during earnings season [2] Group 3 - Labor market data to be released this Thursday is critical for maintaining the current positive momentum [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts non-farm payrolls at 85,000, below the market consensus of 113,000, which could reinforce easing expectations if the data disappoints [3] - The firm recommends investors adopt options hedging strategies and diversify their regional and style allocations during the summer [3][6] Group 4 - Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve have increased, with Goldman Sachs moving its next rate cut prediction to September and lowering the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [5] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, particularly with easing tensions in the Middle East, which lowers the market's geopolitical risk premium [5] - Progress in U.S. trade negotiations, including the cancellation of "section 899," supports growth prospects [5] Group 5 - Recommendations for hedging against inflation include purchasing put options on U.S. high-yield bonds or credit default swaps (CDS) [6] - To hedge against a potential re-inflation rebound, the purchase of payer positions in interest rate swaps is advised [6] - Additional strategies include buying call options on European banking stocks and emerging market equities to mitigate reversal risks [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the successful launch and growth of the "Technology Board" in the bond market, with a total issuance scale of 4,172 billion yuan within the first month [2][3] - The issuance scale of the technology bonds accounted for 17.4% of the total market issuance during the same period, indicating strong demand from various issuers [2] - Commercial banks were the most active participants, issuing 1,910 billion yuan, which represents 45.8% of the total issuance [2][3] Group 2 - The structure of issuers has improved, with the proportion of private enterprises in non-financial technology bonds increasing from 10.1% in the first four months of 2025 to 12.5% in May [2] - The majority of newly issued technology bonds by private enterprises had a maturity of less than three years, while nearly 80% of the total issuance had a maturity of over three years [3][4] - The average issuance interest rate for bank-issued technology bonds was 1.67%, with funds directed towards technology loans and investments in technology innovation enterprises [4] Group 3 - Financial institutions, including banks and securities firms, actively participated in the issuance of technology bonds, with 23 securities firms involved [5] - The longest maturity for a technology bond issued by a securities firm was 10 years, with a significant portion of the funds allocated to support technology innovation [5] - Risk-sharing mechanisms, such as credit default swaps and risk mitigation certificates, have become popular tools in the design of technology bonds [6] Group 4 - The introduction of risk-sharing tools is expected to enhance the accessibility and convenience of financing for private enterprises and early-stage technology companies [6] - Future innovations in yield mechanisms could attract more investors to participate in technology bonds issued by small and medium-sized private technology enterprises [7] - The "Technology Board" in the bond market is anticipated to play a significant role in supporting technological innovation and progress in the future [7]