TikTok users have been deleting the app at a higher rate since the company announced that its U.S. operations would be housed in a new joint venture.The short-form video platform's daily average app uninstalls in the U.S. have increased nearly 150% over the past five days compared with the previous three months, market intelligence firm Sensor Tower told CNBC.Last Thursday, TikTok said it had formed a joint venture to keep the video-sharing app operating in the U.S. under new American leadership. The compan ...

Market Overview - Stocks are showing gains after two weeks of decline, with the Dow up about 320 points or 0.67% [1] - The NASDAQ Composite is up over 0.5%, while the S&P 500 is performing similarly [2] - The Russell 2000, which had a record 14-day outperformance, is down approximately 0.3% [3] Bond Market and Currency - Yields in the bond market are down, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.21%, down three basis points [3] - The US dollar index has decreased by 0.5% amid potential currency intervention by the Bank of Japan [4] Sector Performance - Technology is leading the large-cap sectors, with notable performances from companies like Apple and Broadcom [4][5] - Consumer stocks are facing challenges, particularly in large-cap, with Nvidia down 0.7% and AMD down 3% [6] - Utilities and communication services are outperforming the S&P 500, while consumer discretionary and energy sectors are slightly in the red [5][6] Commodities - Natural gas prices have surged by 25% today, rising from $3 to $6.50 per unit due to increased heating demand [7][8] - Gold futures are above $5,000 an ounce, with Goldman Sachs raising their price target for gold [9] Corporate Developments - Microsoft has announced its new AI chip, the Maya 200, aimed at competing with Google and Amazon's chips, and reducing reliance on Nvidia [29][30] - GameStop's stock is seeing a boost after investor Michael Burry disclosed his bullish stance on the company [58][60] - CoreWeave has received a $2 billion investment from Nvidia to expand its AI cloud capabilities [63] Economic Outlook - Analysts expect a potential hit to US GDP in Q1, estimating a decrease of 0.5% to 1.5% [13] - The Fed is anticipated to maintain interest rates steady, with no cuts expected until at least June [92][94] CEO Responses to Social Issues - CEOs from major companies are publicly calling for de-escalation in response to unrest in Minneapolis, marking a rare moment of corporate intervention [39][40]

Key Points The TikTok deal is done and the US business is now officially known as "TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC." Oracle will own a significant, but not controlling stake in the new TikTok JV. 10 stocks we like better than Oracle › Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) stock jumped 3% through 10:40 a.m. ET Monday after publication of an internal memo to employees from TikTok CEO Shou Chew -- confirming the TikTok U.S. deal is done. Oracle, alongside private equity firm Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-based MGX, now colle ...

Core Insights - OpenAI's recent developments, particularly the launch of Gemini 3.0, have shifted market sentiment, favoring Google (Alphabet) over OpenAI, although volatility remains a concern for OpenAI's potential stock performance [1][2][5] - OpenAI's valuation could reach between $750 billion and $830 billion in the upcoming capital raise, despite financial uncertainties [3][4] - The potential for OpenAI's IPO could lead to a historic debut, possibly valued at $1 trillion, depending on future performance and market conditions [4] Company-Specific Insights OpenAI - Concerns about OpenAI's financial sustainability have led to significant market reactions, with fears of running out of cash by mid-2027 if capital raises do not occur [3] - The company is exploring monetization opportunities, which could enhance its market position and potentially lead to a resurgence against competitors like Google [5] Oracle - Oracle's stock has been negatively impacted due to its reliance on OpenAI, with approximately two-thirds of its remaining performance obligations (RPOs) tied to OpenAI's financial health [6][7] - Despite the risks, Oracle is viewed as a valuable investment, particularly due to its role in the GPU market, which could benefit from ongoing AI advancements [8] Microsoft - Microsoft has experienced a decline in stock value, attributed to the diminishing hype surrounding OpenAI, which is crucial for its Copilot product [9] - A significant capital raise, potentially around $50 billion, could alleviate investor concerns and improve Microsoft's stock performance, especially as earnings reports approach [10]

Key Takeaways Primavera Cloud supports federal infrastructure and construction projects with high compliance demands.Oracle differentiates through specialized project management rather than broad federal cloud platforms.ORCL targets multi-year federal contracts as agencies expand cloud budgets for modernization.Oracle (ORCL) operates across cloud infrastructure, applications and database services, but its growth strategy increasingly emphasizes penetrating regulated sectors where compliance requirements cre ...

Group 1 - The capital expenditure (Capex) of the top eight cloud service providers is projected to grow from $145.1 billion in 2021 to $602 billion by 2026, representing an increase of over four times [1][4] - This investment surge is driven not by market speculation but by the fundamental need for computational power, particularly due to the demands of generative artificial intelligence (AI) [1][5] - The current trend is characterized as a "structural transformation" in the semiconductor market rather than a bubble, as the demand for computing resources is fundamentally changing [10][14] Group 2 - The growth in cloud investment is accelerating, with a notable increase following the release of ChatGPT by OpenAI [4][5] - Generative AI requires significantly more computational resources compared to traditional search engines, with processing demands being 10,000 to 100,000 times greater [6][7] - The competition among cloud providers is fierce, as failure to invest in generative AI capabilities could lead to losing market relevance [8][17] Group 3 - The semiconductor market, particularly the data center logic chip sector, is expected to expand significantly, with the GPU market projected to grow from $100 billion to $230 billion and the AI ASIC market from $9 billion to $84 billion by 2030 [19] - The memory market is also anticipated to experience a shift, with DRAM and HBM prices expected to rise due to increased demand from AI applications [22][24] - The transition in TSMC's primary products from N5 to N3 nodes indicates a shift towards advanced technology driven by AI demands, with NVIDIA and Broadcom expected to surpass Apple in chip investments [28][33] Group 4 - The bottleneck in AI semiconductor development is primarily due to the limited capacity of 2.5D packaging technologies like CoWoS, which are essential for integrating high-bandwidth memory with AI chips [37][39] - Once the CoWoS capacity constraints are resolved, it is expected that investment in AI infrastructure will surge, leading to further competition among cloud service providers [39][42] - The ongoing trend signifies a profound and irreversible change in the semiconductor industry, driven by the structural demands of generative AI [42]

Core Insights - Oracle's backlog increased by $68 billion in Q2 of fiscal 2026, resulting in a total remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $523 billion, positioning the company for significant revenue growth in the AI sector [1][2] - The company's revenue grew 14% year over year, reaching $16 billion in the same quarter, with a notable 438% increase in backlog attributed to new commitments from major clients like Meta and Nvidia [3][5] Financial Metrics - Current market capitalization of Oracle is $509 billion, with a stock price of $177.16, and a gross margin of 65.40% [2] - The stock has experienced a 5% decline over the past year, but has gained 200% over the last five years, outperforming the S&P 500's 80% gain [5] Competitive Landscape - Oracle faces competition from major players such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, which adds pressure to convert its backlog into revenue [7] - The company's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has decreased from the low 30s to approximately 26, indicating a potential buying opportunity for investors [8] Operational Considerations - The substantial backlog represents multiple years of revenue, but fulfilling these orders will require significant capital investment in data centers and infrastructure, raising concerns among investors [6]

Summary of Global Software Conference Call Industry Overview - The software industry is experiencing a significant shift in focus from macroeconomic concerns to the disruptive rise of AI, with investor discussions centered around whether an AI bubble exists and the potential impact of AI on enterprise software [1][11][15]. Key Themes for 2026 - **Valuation Reset**: Software valuations have halved over the past year, creating opportunities to acquire high-quality stocks at discounted prices [14][31]. - **IT Spending Outlook**: Recent CIO surveys indicate one of the strongest IT spending outlooks since 2018, with expectations for a stable macro environment and lower interest rates supporting demand, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) [3][13][23]. - **Generative AI Impact**: While Generative AI is a major topic, its revenue impact on most software companies is still limited. The expectation is that significant revenue generation from AI will not materialize until 2027 or later [6][19][22]. Company-Specific Insights - **Top Picks**: Recommended stocks include Oracle, Microsoft, SAP, and HubSpot, all rated as Outperform. MongoDB is also favored for its long-term potential and near-term momentum [4][7][25][26]. - **Cautionary Stocks**: Salesforce is expected to underperform due to concerns over AI disruption and market saturation. Snowflake is rated as Market-Perform, with long-term growth prospects viewed as uncertain [4][7][29][30]. Financial Metrics - **Valuation Comparisons**: - Adobe (ADBE): Current price $296.12, target $506.00, adjusted P/E 12.0 for 2026E. - Microsoft (MSFT): Current price $459.86, target $645.00, adjusted P/E 27.5 for 2026E. - Oracle (ORCL): Current price $191.09, target $339.00, adjusted P/E 25.9 for 2026E. - Salesforce (CRM): Current price $227.11, target $223.00, adjusted P/E 19.2 for 2026E [5][8]. Investment Implications - **SMB vs. Enterprise**: SMB-focused software companies may see earlier revenue recovery compared to enterprise-focused firms, as SMBs typically rebound faster in improving economic conditions [6][23]. - **AI Revenue Generation**: The expectation is that while AI will contribute to revenue growth, it will be limited in 2026, with only a few companies likely to see a significant positive impact [19][20]. Macro Considerations - **Economic Stability**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, with potential benefits from deregulation and tax cuts in the U.S. [3][23]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing global conflicts and geopolitical tensions may continue to impact market sentiment and investment strategies [21][23]. Conclusion - The software sector is at a pivotal moment, with significant opportunities arising from valuation resets and a favorable IT spending outlook. However, the impact of Generative AI remains uncertain, and investors are advised to focus on company-specific fundamentals while being cautious of potential disruptions in the market.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involvement - **ServiceTitan**: A vertical software company providing an end-to-end operational platform for various industries, including residential and commercial sectors [2] - **Via Transportation**: A transportation service company that recently went public [4] - **Intuit**: A financial software company aiming for significant revenue growth through new product cycles [5] - **Oracle**: A technology company focusing on GPU as a service, facing challenges in execution [6] - **Microsoft Azure**: A cloud computing service experiencing strong demand but facing capacity issues [7][8] - **OpenAI**: A partner of Microsoft, with significant revenue implications for Azure [9][10] - **ServiceNow**: A cloud computing company with a focus on IT service management [16] Core Insights and Arguments - **ServiceTitan's Competitive Advantage**: The company has a strong moat due to proprietary data and end-to-end process control, which limits competition. Its AI features are additional purchases, enhancing value and market confidence [2] - **Via Transportation's Stock Performance**: The stock dropped significantly post-IPO due to only slightly exceeding expectations. However, if the company can maintain over 30% growth, it may lead to a reassessment of its valuation [4] - **Intuit's Growth Potential**: Intuit aims for a 20% revenue growth driven by advancements in tax services and expansion into the mid-market accounting sector, potentially doubling revenue and earnings per share by FY2030 [5] - **Oracle's GPU Service Challenges**: The company requires substantial investment (over $400 billion in the next 3-4 years) to develop its GPU service, with execution risks reflected in its stock price [6] - **Azure's Capacity Issues**: Azure faces a supply-demand imbalance, with strong growth in commercial bookings. New data centers will take time to build, but contracts with emerging cloud vendors may accelerate growth [7][8] Additional Important Insights - **OpenAI's Risk Exposure**: Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI presents risks due to reliance on a single client for significant revenue. Transparency in order growth and diversification of client base is crucial [9][10] - **ServiceNow's Performance**: Despite lowering guidance due to federal business risks, ServiceNow's core business remains strong, with growth in IT asset management and new AI solutions contributing to revenue [16] - **Microsoft 365 Copilot's Market Position**: The usage of Microsoft 365 Copilot is increasing, indicating strong market acceptance despite competition. CIOs prioritize infrastructure and data governance when evaluating competing products [11][12] - **Investor Focus Areas**: Investors should monitor Azure's growth, operational efficiency, and the impact of rising memory and electricity costs on margins [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - A class action lawsuit has been filed against Oracle Corporation regarding the issuance of senior notes, alleging that the Offering Documents contained misleading statements about the company's financial needs for AI infrastructure [1][4]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit claims that Oracle failed to disclose the need for significant additional debt to build its AI infrastructure at the time of the Offering, which raised concerns about the creditworthiness of the bonds [4]. - Investors are encouraged to join the class action without incurring out-of-pocket fees through a contingency fee arrangement [2]. Group 2: Rosen Law Firm's Credentials - Rosen Law Firm has a strong track record in securities class actions, having achieved the largest securities class action settlement against a Chinese company and being ranked highly for securities class action settlements since 2013 [3]. - In 2019, the firm secured over $438 million for investors, showcasing its capability in recovering significant amounts for clients [3].