点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 9月12日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案（2025—2027年）》 （下文简称《方案》）。 在"十四五"期间各类技术路线的降本中，锂电储能的降本尤为显著，在之后的大规模建设中，大概率持续 占据主流位置。但考虑到应用场景的丰富，压缩空气储能、液流电池储能、钠离子电池储能、飞轮储能、 重力储能、热储能、氢储能等技术路线仍有广阔发展空间。 《方案》致力于推动新型储能利用水平提升 此前储能电站利用率较低一直是影响储能行业发展的核心问题，《方案》中提出，要推动新型储能调控方 式创新，合理提升新型储能调用水平。电力现货市场未连续运行地区应综合考虑系统需求、安全性、调节 经济性等因素，优化各类调节资 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **energy storage industry** in China, focusing on the rapid growth of new energy storage installations, particularly lithium battery storage, which has become the mainstream technology route. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Installation Growth**: In July 2025, approximately **12 GWh** of new installations were added, with expectations for similar monthly additions from August to November. The total new installations for lithium battery storage are projected to exceed **130 GWh** for the year. [1][4] - **Market Dynamics**: The energy storage market is experiencing a diversification of profit models, with over **7 provinces** implementing capacity compensation policies. In Inner Mongolia, independent storage projects can achieve internal rates of return (IRR) exceeding **12%** due to these policies. [1][5] - **Technological Standards**: The release of the national standard draft for grid-connected energy storage has raised technical requirements, benefiting leading companies like **NARI, Sungrow, and Huawei**. [1][6] - **Market Concentration**: Major system integrators, including **Sungrow, BYD, and Envision**, hold over **60%** of the market share, indicating increased concentration and a recovery in system prices due to rising upstream cell prices. [1][8][9] - **Cell Price Trends**: Cell prices have increased by approximately **15%** compared to the low point at the end of 2024, with second-tier companies' prices rising to **0.28-0.29 CNY/Wh** and leading companies maintaining prices above **0.32 CNY/Wh**. [3][10][11] Additional Important Insights - **Urgent Demand**: Projects in **Hebei and Inner Mongolia** are under pressure to connect to the grid by the end of the year to qualify for capacity compensation, indicating a strong demand for energy storage solutions. [3][12] - **Future Projections**: The expected new installation capacity for 2026 is projected to increase by **15-20%** from 2025, reaching **150-160 GWh**, supported by large-scale projects in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. [3][13] - **Profitability Concerns**: While policies are driving energy storage development, there are concerns about long-term profitability due to potential changes in compensation policies. [3][20][44] - **Regional Variations**: Different provinces exhibit varying performance in the energy storage market, with Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang showing particularly strong project initiation due to favorable capacity price subsidies. [31][35] - **Investment Sentiment**: Investors are wary of policy changes affecting project returns, with private enterprises often seeking short-term profits while state-owned enterprises focus on long-term strategies. [44] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the energy storage industry in China.

Core Insights - China's electricity generation is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, accounting for nearly 30% of global output, surpassing the combined totals of the US, India, and Russia [1][5][19] - The significance of electricity extends beyond mere numbers; it is a foundational element for national energy security, industrial upgrades, and geopolitical influence [5][13] Group 1: Technological Advancements - China leads in smart grids and ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology, effectively addressing the instability issues associated with renewable energy sources [6][8] - UHV lines enable the transmission of green electricity from western regions to coastal cities with only 2% transmission loss, a feat still considered futuristic in Europe and the US [8] - The country is also advancing in energy storage and hydrogen energy, with the largest pumped storage capacity globally and rapid growth in lithium battery storage [8][11] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - China's electricity exports are reshaping geopolitical dynamics, providing stable and affordable energy to Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia, thereby increasing their economic dependence on China [13][16] - The integration of coal, wind, and UHV technologies allows Central Asian countries to diversify their energy export channels, while electricity cooperation offers more reliability than verbal commitments for South and Southeast Asian nations [13][16] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The Belt and Road Initiative is being transformed from a concept into a tangible electricity network, with Chinese companies constructing and operating power grids and substations across various regions [16][19] - This practical cooperation is viewed as more dependable than ideological alliances, as China actively implements its green commitments through technology and capital investments [16][19] Group 4: Future Outlook - China's electricity sector is still evolving, with ongoing technological upgrades, industrial optimization, and deepening international cooperation [19][21] - The future of global energy will hinge on electricity and the ability to manage the entire production, transmission, storage, and application chain, positioning China as a key player in shaping this landscape [19][21]