1. 8月6日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.35%，标普500指数期货涨0.24%，纳指期货涨 0.23%。 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.02%，英国富时100指数涨0.20%，法国CAC40指数涨0.28%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.22%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨1.63%，报66.22美元/桶。布伦特原油涨1.52%，报68.67美元/桶。 | 瑞 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2025年10月 | 68.67 | 68.81 | 67.65 | +1.03 | +1.52% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 雪 WTI原油 | 2025年9月 | 66.22 | 66.34 | 65.12 | +1.06 | +1.63% | 市场消息 降息预期凌乱，华尔街投行"吵"起来。美国"非农"数据暴雷令美联储降息预期飙升，但本周华尔街知名投行对降息分歧却在加 大。高盛、花旗均认为，9月或激进降息，摩根大通甚至认为今年可能降息125个基点。然而，美银认为今年美联储或按兵不 动，巴克莱和汇丰同样态度谨慎。未来几个月将 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.35%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.23% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 0.02%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.20%, France's CAC40 up by 0.28%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.22% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.63% to $66.22 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.52% to $68.67 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - There is a growing divergence among Wall Street investment banks regarding interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup suggesting aggressive cuts in September, while Bank of America and Barclays remain cautious [4] - The upcoming months are critical for determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, especially if employment and inflation data continue to show weakness [4] - Concerns about the credibility of government data have arisen following President Trump's criticism of employment data, which could impact the TIPS market significantly [5] Company News - Supermicro (SMCI.US) reported a 7.5% year-over-year increase in Q4 sales to $5.76 billion, but this fell short of market expectations of $6.01 billion, leading to a nearly 17% pre-market drop [7][8] - AMD (AMD.US) saw a 32% year-over-year revenue increase to $7.7 billion in Q2, but its adjusted earnings per share of $0.48 fell below expectations, resulting in a nearly 6% pre-market decline [8] - Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) reported a 32% year-over-year increase in net profit for Q2, driven by strong sales of its semaglutide products, which generated $16.68 billion in revenue [9] - Honda (HMC.US) adjusted its full-year guidance upward despite a 1.2% year-over-year decline in Q1 revenue, anticipating a reduction in tariff-related losses [10] - McDonald's (MCD.US) reported a 5.4% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, exceeding expectations, with same-store sales growth driven primarily by higher customer spending [11] - Uber (UBER.US) exceeded revenue expectations for Q2, reporting $12.65 billion, and provided a positive outlook for Q3 [11] - Disney (DIS.US) reported Q3 earnings that surpassed expectations, although traditional TV revenue fell short, overshadowing strong performance in theme parks and streaming [12] - Lucid (LCID.US) reported a Q2 adjusted loss of $0.24 per share, below expectations, and lowered its annual production guidance to 18,000-20,000 vehicles [13] - Snap (SNAP.US) experienced a significant drop in advertising revenue growth, leading to a nearly 18% pre-market decline following its Q2 earnings report [13]

Group 1 - Major stock index futures are showing positive trends, with Dow futures up 0.29%, S&P 500 futures up 0.23%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.06% [1] - Chinese concept stocks are mixed in pre-market trading, with Alibaba up 1.53%, Pinduoduo up 1.07%, JD down 0.03%, Baidu up 0.87%, and Li Auto down 3.09% [1] - Uber's stock is up 2.3% in pre-market trading ahead of its Q2 earnings report scheduled for release before market open on Wednesday [1] Group 2 - AMD's stock is down over 6% in pre-market trading after reporting Q2 revenue that exceeded expectations but a significant drop in operating profit margin to 12% from 22% year-over-year, with adjusted net income of $781 million, down 31% year-over-year [1] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has lowered its revenue guidance for the next quarter to between $6 billion and $7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected between $0.40 and $0.52. The revenue forecast for fiscal year 2026 has been reduced from $40 billion to $33 billion, a decrease of 17.5% [2] - Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy saw a 67% increase in Q2 sales, reaching 19.53 billion Danish kroner [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Health has withdrawn approximately $500 million in funding for mRNA vaccine development, affecting major vaccine manufacturers including Pfizer, Moderna, and Sanofi, with Pfizer down 0.3%, Moderna down 0.3%, and Sanofi down 0.4% [2] - Disney has made a significant move by exchanging equity in ESPN for core assets from the NFL, establishing a deep partnership with one of the most commercially valuable sports IPs in the U.S., resulting in a 3.3% increase in Disney's stock [3]

I'm a full time value investor and writer who enjoys using classical value ratios to pick my portfolio. My previous working background is in private credit and CRE mezzanine financing for a family office. I'm also a fluent Mandarin speaker in both business and court settings, previously serving as a court interpreter. I have spent a good chunk of my adult working life in China and Asia. I have worked with top CRE developers in the past including The Witkoff Group , Kushner Companies, Durst Organization and ...

(责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇8月6日｜超微电脑(SMCI.US)盘前大跌超17%，报47.5美元。消息面上，超微电脑第四财季营收 57.6亿美元同比增长7.5%，低于分析师预期的60.1亿美元；调整后每股收益0.41美元，亦低于预期的 0.44美元。展望方面，公司预计2026财年首财季营收将介于60亿至70亿美元之间，调整后每股盈利将介 于0.4至0.52美元之间，分别低于分析师平均预期的65.9亿美元和0.59美元。 另外，公司将2026财年营收预期从此前的400亿美元大幅砍至330亿美元。彭博智库分析师Woo Jin Ho表 示，这一展望暗示着高度竞争的定价环境，特别是来自戴尔的竞争，引发市场担忧超微电脑市场份额可 能不断被侵蚀。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) experienced a pre-market drop of over 17%, trading at $47.5, following disappointing financial results and lowered revenue forecasts [1]. Financial Performance - For the fourth fiscal quarter, the company reported revenue of $5.76 billion, a year-over-year increase of 7.5%, but below analyst expectations of $6.01 billion [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.41, also falling short of the anticipated $0.44 [1]. Future Outlook - The company projects first-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be between $6 billion and $7 billion, with adjusted EPS expected to range from $0.40 to $0.52, both below analyst averages of $6.59 billion and $0.59, respectively [1]. - Additionally, the revenue forecast for fiscal year 2026 has been significantly reduced from $40 billion to $33 billion [1]. Competitive Environment - Analyst Woo Jin Ho from Bloomberg Intelligence indicated that the outlook suggests a highly competitive pricing environment, particularly due to competition from Dell, raising concerns about potential erosion of Super Micro Computer's market share [1].

另外，公司将2026财年营收预期从此前的400亿美元大幅砍至330亿美元。彭博智库分析师Woo Jin Ho表 示，这一展望暗示着高度竞争的定价环境，特别是来自戴尔的竞争，引发市场担忧超微电脑市场份额可 能不断被侵蚀。(格隆汇) 超微电脑(SMCI.US)盘前大跌超17%，报47.5美元。消息面上，超微电脑第四财季营收57.6亿美元同比增 长7.5%，低于分析师预期的60.1亿美元；调整后每股收益0.41美元，亦低于预期的0.44美元。展望方 面，公司预计2026财年首财季营收将介于60亿至70亿美元之间，调整后每股盈利将介于0.4至0.52美元之 间，分别低于分析师平均预期的65.9亿美元和0.59美元。 ...

Group 1 - Angelalign (06699) opened nearly 19% higher after a positive earnings forecast, driven by strategic price adjustments in its core Chinese business and continued growth in revenue outside China [1] - Songjing Technology (01079) resumed trading with an opening increase of over 40% [1] - Jingtai Holdings (02228) opened more than 9% higher after announcing a significant partnership with DoveTree, valued at approximately HKD 47 billion (USD 5.99 billion) for AI pharmaceutical development [1] Group 2 - Shunmei Co., Ltd. (02145) saw an early morning increase of over 5%, projecting a revenue of RMB 4.09 billion to RMB 4.11 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 16.8%-17.3% [2] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose over 10% following the successful commissioning of its PM56 production line, which can produce 250,000 tons of high-grade cultural paper annually [2] Group 3 - Giant Star Legend (06683) increased over 1% after announcing a collaboration with Jiushi Wen Chuan for a large-scale IP and cultural tourism project in Shanghai [3] - South Manganese Industry (01091) surged over 15%, expecting to turn a profit of at least HKD 150 million in the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of HKD 162.8 million in the same period of 2024 [3] Group 4 - China Shenhua (01088) rose over 3% after announcing plans to acquire significant assets from its controlling shareholder, which would enhance its coal production capacity by 74.5% [4] - Boya Interactive (00434) fell over 6% due to a profit warning, expecting a decrease of approximately 25%-35% in profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [4] Group 5 - Wuling Motors (00305) increased over 9% after announcing a projected net profit of approximately RMB 84 million for the first half of 2025, a significant increase from RMB 21.125 million in the same period of 2024 [5] Group 6 - Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US) dropped 12.36% after reporting second-quarter sales of USD 545 million, below market expectations [6] - Palantir (PLTR.US) rose 7.85% after reporting second-quarter revenue of over USD 1 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase [6] Group 7 - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) increased by 2.82% after UBS raised its target price, citing strong expected performance in the second quarter [7] - Daqo New Energy (DQ.US) rose 3.68% as market signals indicated positive changes in the photovoltaic polysilicon sector [7] Group 8 - Li Auto (LI.US) saw a slight increase in stock price after announcing adjustments to its electric vehicle model pricing [8] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX.US) fell 20.60% after failing to meet key endpoints in a clinical trial [8] Group 9 - Chinese gaming stocks collectively rose, with Bilibili (BILI.US) up 2.07% following a report indicating a 14.08% year-on-year increase in the domestic gaming market [9] Group 10 - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.US) fell 2.70% amid reports of a potential technology leak involving its 2nm chip process [9] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US) decreased by 1.40% despite reporting a 32% year-on-year revenue increase for the second quarter [10]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected downward revision of sales forecasts by Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) has raised concerns about the competitive landscape in the AI server market, leading to a significant drop in its stock price after previously experiencing an 88% increase this year, outperforming major indices and competitors like Nvidia [1][3][8] Group 1: Performance and Forecasts - Super Micro Computer's stock fell over 17% in after-hours trading following the announcement of its quarterly performance, which showed a 7.5% increase in sales to $5.76 billion, but fell short of Wall Street's expectations [6] - The company revised its fiscal year sales forecast to at least $33 billion, down from an earlier optimistic projection of $40 billion, reflecting a significant reduction in expected demand for AI servers [3][5] - The management's profit forecast for the quarter ending in September indicated an operating margin of only 5%, compared to the Wall Street average expectation of 10%, highlighting ongoing competitive pressures in the AI server market [3][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The AI server market is experiencing intense competition, particularly from Dell and HPE, which have been able to increase their profit forecasts while Super Micro Computer has struggled [3][4] - Analysts predict that major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will spend over $350 billion on AI infrastructure this year, indicating a growing market but also increasing competition for Super Micro Computer [4] - The CEO of Super Micro Computer noted that some customers are waiting for new products equipped with the latest Nvidia AI chips, which has negatively impacted demand for existing products [7] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Valuation Concerns - The unexpected performance of Super Micro Computer has led to concerns that it may signal a broader issue of overvaluation among AI-related stocks, as not all companies in the AI infrastructure space are achieving strong growth [8] - The stock's previous rise was largely driven by investor optimism regarding AI server demand, but the recent earnings report has raised doubts about the sustainability of this growth [8][9] - Analysts have expressed concerns that Super Micro Computer's market share may continue to be eroded as customers become more selective and turn to competitors like Dell and HPE [7][9]

Summary of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) - **Industry**: AI server and storage systems Key Financial Metrics - **F4Q25 Revenue**: $5.76 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $5.98 billion [1][6] - **Gross Margins**: 9.6%, below the expected 10% [1][6] - **F1Q26 EPS Guidance**: $0.40-$0.52, missing the consensus of $0.59 [1][3] - **F2026 Sales Outlook**: At least $33 billion [1][4] Core Insights - **Earnings Miss**: SMCI's F4Q25 EPS of $0.41 missed the consensus of $0.44-$0.45, indicating a revenue and margin miss [2][6] - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Server & storage systems: $5.62 billion, down 3% YoY - Subsystems & accessories: $139 million, down 38% YoY [7][8] - **Operating Income**: Non-GAAP operating income of $312 million, missing estimates of $357 million [6][8] Competitive Landscape - **Market Dynamics**: The company is facing intensified competition in the AI server market, which is becoming increasingly commoditized [1][10] - **Customer Delays**: Continued delays in customer platform decisions are impacting revenue [1] Additional Considerations - **Stock-Based Compensation**: Approximately $69 million in stock-based compensation was reported, netting a tax effect of $20 million excluded from non-GAAP net income [3] - **Investment Rating**: Goldman Sachs has a "Sell" rating on SMCI with a 12-month target price of $24, reflecting a potential downside of 58.8% from the current price of $58.23 [9][13] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Stronger-than-expected demand for AI servers, market share gains, core operating margin improvement, and customer diversification are potential upside risks [9] - **Long-term Outlook**: While SMCI has established partnerships with key AI component suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD, the competitive landscape poses risks to profitability [10]