1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the A-share market rose after an initial decline, with a significant rally in the second half of the month; the bond market showed a divergence between short and long - term segments; the US stock market fluctuated, oil prices declined, and precious metals increased. Some funds heavily invested in commercial aerospace, optical modules, and machinery industries performed well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 December Capital Market Review Stock Market - In December 2025, the A - share market declined in the first half and then had an 11 - day consecutive increase in the second half, with the overall market rising. The trading atmosphere improved. The aerospace, non - ferrous metals, and communication sectors performed well. By December 31, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.06%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.17%. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks. Among industries, 18 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and communication leading the gains [8][9]. Bond Market - In December 2025, there was a net injection of 1.17 trillion yuan in the central bank's open - market operations, but the year - end capital demand pushed up the capital interest rate. The bond market showed a divergence between short and long - term segments, and the yield curve steepened. The yields of some bonds changed, and the prices of major bond indices declined, while the convertible bond index rose [10]. Overseas Market - In December 2025, the US stock market fluctuated due to mixed economic data and concerns about AI valuation bubbles. European markets generally rose, and most Asia - Pacific markets also had positive performance, except for the Hang Seng Index. Oil prices declined due to expected oversupply and economic concerns, while precious metals rose, with silver having a significant increase [11]. 2025 December Fund Performance Review Equity and Hybrid Funds - In December 2025, equity funds rose 2.75%, with index equity funds rising 2.79% and actively managed open - end equity funds rising 2.54%. Actively managed open - end hybrid funds rose 2.77%. Funds heavily invested in commercial aerospace, optical modules, and machinery, as well as satellite aviation and high - end equipment theme index funds, performed well [13]. Bond Funds - In December 2025, bond funds rose 0.23%, with index bond funds rising 0.08% and actively managed open - end bond funds rising 0.24%. Convertible bond funds and partial - debt bond funds performed well. Among them, convertible bond funds rose 3.15%, and partial - debt bond funds rose 0.59%. Medium - and short - duration bonds in pure - debt bond funds showed better performance [14]. Money Market Funds - In December 2025, the average annualized yield of money market funds was 1.22%, an increase from the previous month [15]. QDII Funds - In December 2025, QDII equity - hybrid funds declined 0.94%. Some funds focusing on semiconductors, high - end manufacturing, and precious metals performed well. QDII bond funds declined 0.32% [16].

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 过去十几年，A股市场在岁末年初通常会呈现这样一个现象：基于对新一年经济、政策或行业的预期， 市场资金流入增加，交易趋于活跃，风险偏好抬升，进而酝酿一段上涨行情，这一现象被称为跨年行 情。 从历史数据看，跨年行情在时间维度和资产表现风格上呈现不同的特征。跨年行情通常集中在上年12月 至次年3、4月之间，中间跨越春节、两会这两个重要的时间节点。行情延续时间长短不一，强弱也各有 不同。统计2010年至2025年跨年行情可以看到，主要指数在12月至次年2月期间的上涨概率逐步上升， 背后的主要因素可能在于，2月份通常是春节所在月份，市场受到春节前后积极情绪以及春节后至两会 前政策博弈的推动。 | | 上证指数 | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证1000 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12月 | 47% | ୧୦% | 40% | 27% | 33% | 40% | | 1月 | ...

Macro News - The U.S. initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000, marking the highest increase since March 2020 [1] - The number of continuing claims fell to 1.84 million, representing the largest single-week decline in four years, coinciding with the Thanksgiving holiday [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [2] - The FOMC's voting results were 9 in favor and 3 against, with some members advocating for maintaining rates or larger cuts [2] - The Fed announced a monthly purchase plan of approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities starting December 12 [2] Economic Projections - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2028, with median growth rates projected at 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively [2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates potential rate cuts of 25 basis points in both 2026 and 2027 [2] Market Reactions - Following a strong performance, precious metals experienced a sudden drop, with gold retreating to around 4300 and silver briefly falling below $61 [3] - Concerns over AI valuation bubbles were triggered by Oracle's disappointing earnings report and delays in data center completions, leading to market volatility [3] - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, as well as central bank meetings in Europe and Japan, may further amplify market fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's earnings warning has reignited concerns about an AI valuation bubble, yet Wall Street investors remain cautiously optimistic about the AI sector, with no consensus that the AI rally has peaked [1][4]. Group 1: Oracle's Performance and Market Reaction - Oracle's stock price fell by 16.5% after the company warned that its capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 would exceed previous expectations by $15 billion [1]. - The decline in Oracle's stock also affected Broadcom, which saw a drop in after-hours trading due to concerns that increased AI business exposure would hurt profit margins [1]. - The sell-off extended to other tech stocks, raising investor concerns about the scale of AI spending and the uncertainty of investment returns [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Despite the sell-off, the S&P 500 index rose slightly, reaching a new all-time high, indicating broader market resilience [4]. - Analysts suggest that Oracle's issues are specific to the company and do not reflect a systemic crisis in the AI sector [5]. - Notable investors, including Michael Burry, have compared the current AI hype to the 1990s internet bubble, but short-selling activity is primarily focused on smaller companies, with limited short positions on leading AI stocks [4][5]. Group 3: Changing Investor Attitudes - Investor criteria for AI investments are becoming more stringent, with a notable shift in the correlation between capital expenditures and stock prices [5]. - Meta's stock dropped by 11% after announcing significant increases in capital expenditures, highlighting the market's changing response to aggressive AI investments [5]. - Market participants believe that Oracle's challenges are more of an isolated incident rather than indicative of a broader issue within the AI investment landscape [6]. Group 4: Short Selling and Market Dynamics - There is a rising willingness among investors to short smaller AI stocks, but major AI beneficiaries remain lightly shorted [7]. - Despite some setbacks for leading AI stocks, the broader market continues to perform strongly, with technology stocks comprising 35% of the S&P 500 index [7]. - Concerns persist that a decline in enthusiasm for high-flying AI stocks could negatively impact the overall market, which has seen a 17% increase this year [7].

Group 1 - A competition is ongoing among embodied intelligence companies for sponsorship of the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, with Zhiyuan Robotics offering 60 million yuan and Yushu Technology raising their bid to 100 million yuan, although Zhiyuan claims the reports are untrue [4] - Meituan has hired Pan Xin, former head of ByteDance's visual model AI platform, to lead multi-modal AI innovation, including the development of applications like LongCat App [4] - Xiaomi clarified that its recruitment for AI education roles is misinterpreted and is primarily aimed at enhancing services for specific products like the Redmi Pad 2 and Xiaomi Mitu children's watch [5] Group 2 - Pop Mart announced the appointment of Wu Yue, LVMH's Greater China President, as a non-executive director, effective December 10, 2025 [7] - Quark AI glasses S1 are experiencing high demand, with resale prices reaching 4,000 to 5,000 yuan, and the product is sold out on major e-commerce platforms [9][10] - JD.com is set to acquire a 50% stake in a Hong Kong office building for approximately 3.473 billion HKD, indicating continued investment in the region [15] Group 3 - Bill Gates warned of an AI valuation bubble, stating that many companies with high valuations will face declines, but emphasized the transformative potential of AI in sectors like health and education [18][19] - Refly.AI completed a multi-million dollar seed round financing led by Sequoia Capital and Hillhouse Capital, launching its V1.0 version for public testing [19] - Snapmaker announced a multi-hundred million B round financing led by Hillhouse Capital and Meituan, aimed at advancing consumer-grade 3D printing technology [19]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant adjustment with all three major indices declining, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.88% to 3857.24 points, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 2.72%, and the ChiNext Index plummeted by 3.18% [1] - The Hong Kong market also weakened, with the Hang Seng Index down by 2.21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 3.32%, reflecting a global decline in risk appetite as the year-end approaches [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the decline with a drop of 4.77%, while steel, basic chemicals, power equipment, and telecommunications sectors all fell by over 3.5%, indicating profit-taking behavior from investors in previously high-performing sectors [1] - Defensive sectors such as agriculture, home appliances, and food and beverage showed resilience, with declines not exceeding 0.6%, attracting funds seeking safety [1] Notable Highlights - Despite the overall market downturn, the China Shipbuilding Industry Index surged by 4.7%, driven by policy and funding support, particularly in the defense and high-end manufacturing sectors [2] - The recent adjustment in the market correlates with a significant drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P 500, influenced by concerns over AI valuation bubbles, cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and technical selling pressure [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of "structural differentiation and volatile consolidation," with a noticeable decline in the willingness to invest due to external pressures from U.S. market dynamics [3] - There is a shift in investment style towards balanced and defensive strategies, moving away from growth sectors, although technology sectors representing new productive forces remain a long-term focus [3] - The current market decline is viewed as a test of patience for investors, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a focus on value amidst short-term volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant investments and strategic partnerships in the AI and semiconductor sectors, highlighting the ongoing developments and potential market implications despite concerns over AI valuation bubbles [3][4][5]. Investment and Partnerships - Microsoft and NVIDIA plan to invest up to $15 billion in AI startup Anthropic, raising its valuation to $350 billion, with a commitment to purchase $30 billion worth of computing power from Microsoft’s Azure platform [4][5]. - The partnership aims to enhance Anthropic's AI model, Claude, and signifies a shift in Microsoft's strategy to reduce reliance on OpenAI, with which it has previously invested over $13 billion [5]. - GlobalFoundries announced the acquisition of Advanced Micro Foundry (AMF), aiming to become the largest silicon photonics chip manufacturer globally, enhancing its capabilities in Singapore and complementing its existing technologies in the U.S. [6][7]. Technological Developments - The acquisition of AMF will allow GlobalFoundries to leverage silicon photonics technology, which is crucial for high-speed data transmission in AI data centers and telecommunications [7]. - Arm has announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to integrate its Neoverse platform with NVIDIA's NVLink Fusion technology, facilitating easier integration of Arm-based CPUs with NVIDIA's GPUs for large-scale data center operators [8][9]. - This partnership is expected to set new standards for AI infrastructure, with Arm's Neoverse platform projected to capture 50% of the market share in top-tier data centers by 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the debate surrounding the economic lifespan of GPUs, which is crucial for understanding the profitability of major tech companies and the validity of current AI valuations. Bernstein's report suggests a depreciation period of 6 years for GPUs, arguing that this is economically reasonable, while critics like Michael Burry claim the actual lifespan is only 2-3 years, warning of potential accounting manipulation to inflate profits [1][11]. Group 1: Economic Viability of GPU Depreciation - Bernstein analysts argue that a 6-year depreciation period for GPUs is justified, as the cash costs of operating older GPUs are significantly lower than their rental prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that even 5-year-old NVIDIA A100 chips can still yield "comfortable profits," indicating that the depreciation policies of major cloud service providers are fair and not merely for financial embellishment [2][4]. - The analysis shows that the contribution profit margin for A100 chips can reach up to 70%, with operational costs being substantially lower than rental income, providing strong economic incentives for extending GPU usage [4][5]. Group 2: Market Demand and Old GPUs - The current market environment supports the value of older GPUs, as there is overwhelming demand for computing power, with AI labs willing to pay for any available capacity, even for outdated models [6][7]. - Industry analysts note that the A100's computing capacity remains nearly fully booked, suggesting that as long as demand stays strong, older hardware will continue to hold value [8]. Group 3: Depreciation Policies of Tech Giants - Google has a depreciation period of six years for its servers and network equipment, while Microsoft ranges from two to six years, and Meta plans to extend some assets to 5.5 years starting January 2025 [9][10]. - Notably, Amazon has reduced the expected lifespan of some servers and network equipment from six years to five years, reflecting differing views within the industry on hardware iteration speed [10]. Group 4: Criticism and Concerns - Michael Burry warns that tech giants are artificially inflating profits by extending the effective lifespan of assets, predicting that this accounting practice could lead to a profit inflation of $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 [11][12]. - Burry specifically points out that companies like Oracle and Meta could see their profits overstated by 26.9% and 20.8%, respectively, due to these practices [12]. - Previous warnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley indicate that the market may be underestimating the true scale of AI investments and the potential surge in future depreciation costs, which could reveal a lower actual profitability for tech giants than expected [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous decline of gold and U.S. stocks signals tightening market liquidity, as investors are forced to sell profitable assets to cover losses in other holdings [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell below the critical support level of 6725 points, marking its first close below the 50-day moving average in 139 trading days [2]. - Bitcoin dropped below $90,000, erasing its 30% gain for the year, while spot gold fell below $4020, marking four consecutive days of decline [3]. - Asian markets followed suit with significant declines, including a drop of over 3% in the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI, while the Hang Seng Index fell 1.74% below 26,000 points [3]. Group 2: Liquidity Concerns - Market liquidity is tightening, as indicated by the near-zero usage of the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement (ONRRP) and a reduction in bank reserves to $2.83 trillion, which is considered slightly tight [4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including a temporary meeting with major Wall Street dealers to address liquidity pressures in the repo market, highlight their awareness of the liquidity issues [4][6]. Group 3: ETF Inflows and Outflows - Despite a general outflow of 10.35 billion yuan from stock ETFs, there was a strong net inflow of 116.3 billion yuan into cross-border stock ETFs, particularly favoring the Hang Seng Technology Index and other innovative sectors [12]. - The top inflows for ETFs included the SGE Gold 9999 with a net inflow of 55.73 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech 50 with 35.32 billion yuan [14]. Group 4: Notable Investment Moves - Billionaire investor Peter Thiel's fund significantly reduced its holdings in Nvidia by two-thirds and cut its Tesla shares by 76%, while initiating positions in Microsoft and Apple, reflecting concerns over the AI valuation bubble [16][17]. - Thiel's actions align with his previous warnings about the AI hype cycle, comparing it to the 1999 internet bubble, indicating a cautious stance towards current market valuations [18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology stocks, is primarily driven by concerns over high valuations in the AI sector and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3][5]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The technology sector, especially AI stocks like Nvidia, has been a major driver of market gains, with Nvidia's stock price increasing nearly tenfold since November 2022 and becoming the first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion [3]. - There are growing concerns that AI valuations may be inflated, leading to profit-taking ahead of Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report [3]. - Despite the market's worries about AI valuation bubbles, significant investments are still being made in valuable companies, as evidenced by Berkshire Hathaway's recent purchase of Alphabet shares, which rose by 3.1% on that day [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Initially, there was a strong expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with probabilities exceeding 90% a month ago; however, recent comments from Fed officials have reduced this expectation to around 40% [3]. - The upcoming release of the September non-farm payroll data and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting are critical events that will influence future interest rate decisions and market sentiment [3][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to remain calm and not react impulsively to short-term market fluctuations, as a 550-point drop in a single day is part of normal market behavior after significant gains [5]. - Investors should focus on Nvidia's earnings report and the upcoming economic data to gauge the sustainability of AI demand and the direction of interest rate policies [5]. - Diversification is emphasized as a key strategy, encouraging investors to seek out companies with reasonable valuations and core competitive advantages rather than concentrating on a few popular stocks [5].