12月15日，沪金主力暂报983.16元/克，涨幅达1.92%，今日沪金主力开盘价980.62元/克，截至目前最高 985.78元/克，最低963.50元/克。 【宏观消息】 美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，达到23.6万人，这一增幅为2020年3月以来最高。截至11月29日 当周，续请失业金人数降至184万人，创四年来最大单周降幅，当周恰逢感恩节假期。 12月11日，美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会 议投票为9票赞成、3票反对，部分委员主张维持利率不变或更大降幅。会议声明指出经济温和扩张，就 业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动 性充足，自12月12日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储点阵图预测显示在2026年和 2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。美联储上调2025-2028年GDP预期。美联储FOMC经济预期显示， 2025、2026、2027、2028年底GDP增速预 ...

甲骨文业绩预警引发的剧烈波动再次点燃了市场对人工智能估值泡沫的担忧。尽管如此，华尔街投资者 对这一热门交易的态度依然谨慎乐观，几乎没有人敢断言AI行情已经见顶。 投资者对AI领域的筛选标准正在变得更加严苛。数据显示，市场不再无条件奖励激进的AI投资。 Nationwide首席市场策略师Mark Hackett表示： "过去资本支出与股价之间存在非常积极的相关性……但过去几个月这种情况已在表面之下 发生了显著变化，" 11月下旬，Meta股价因预告明年资本支出将"显著增加"而暴跌11%。 自2022年11月ChatGPT发布以来，资本支出一直是推动AI交易的关键因素。但Fairbank Investment Management投资组合经理Robert Gill指出： 周四，甲骨文股价一度暴跌16.5%，此前该公司警告称2026财年资本支出预计比9月预期高出150亿美 元。盘后交易中，博通也因AI业务占比上升将拖累利润率而下跌，进一步加剧市场负面情绪。 这轮抛售波及其他科技股，投资者开始担忧AI支出规模以及投资回报时间的不确定性。不过标普500指 数周四仍小幅收涨，创下历史新高，显示更广泛的市场依然稳健。有分析 ...

【宇树和智元高价争抢春晚赞助席位？智元机器人回应：不是真的】 12 月 10 日，据报道，一批具身智能公司正 在竞逐 2026 年总台马年春晚的赞助商资格。目前，智元和宇树的竞争最为激烈。为了争夺最大赞助商的权益，智 元机器人率先开价 6000 万元，而宇树科技直接将报价拉升至 1 亿元。对此，智元机器人方面回应称"不是真的"。 宇树方面暂无公开表态。（界面新闻） 【美团 AI 转向，前字节视觉模型 AI 平台负责人潘欣加入】 从多个信息源获悉，前闪极 AI 合伙人、前字节视觉大 模型 AI 平台负责人潘欣，近期已经加入美团。 潘欣曾任谷歌大脑（ Google Deepmind ）研究员，推动 TensorFlow 动态图模式开发。回国后，他先后在百度、腾讯与字节跳动任职。 在百度，他曾主导 PaddlePaddle 平台优化、无量深度学习框架构建，而后任腾讯、字节跳动 AIGC 和视觉大模型 AI 平台负责人，业务方向集中在 多模态领域。此后， 2024 年 11 月，潘欣加入闪极科技，担任 AI 合伙人，整体负责 AI 技术研发及智能眼镜项 目。 记者了解到，入职美团后，潘欣负责多模态 AI 创新工作，主 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant adjustment with all three major indices declining, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.88% to 3857.24 points, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 2.72%, and the ChiNext Index plummeted by 3.18% [1] - The Hong Kong market also weakened, with the Hang Seng Index down by 2.21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 3.32%, reflecting a global decline in risk appetite as the year-end approaches [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the decline with a drop of 4.77%, while steel, basic chemicals, power equipment, and telecommunications sectors all fell by over 3.5%, indicating profit-taking behavior from investors in previously high-performing sectors [1] - Defensive sectors such as agriculture, home appliances, and food and beverage showed resilience, with declines not exceeding 0.6%, attracting funds seeking safety [1] Notable Highlights - Despite the overall market downturn, the China Shipbuilding Industry Index surged by 4.7%, driven by policy and funding support, particularly in the defense and high-end manufacturing sectors [2] - The recent adjustment in the market correlates with a significant drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P 500, influenced by concerns over AI valuation bubbles, cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and technical selling pressure [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of "structural differentiation and volatile consolidation," with a noticeable decline in the willingness to invest due to external pressures from U.S. market dynamics [3] - There is a shift in investment style towards balanced and defensive strategies, moving away from growth sectors, although technology sectors representing new productive forces remain a long-term focus [3] - The current market decline is viewed as a test of patience for investors, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a focus on value amidst short-term volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant investments and strategic partnerships in the AI and semiconductor sectors, highlighting the ongoing developments and potential market implications despite concerns over AI valuation bubbles [3][4][5]. Investment and Partnerships - Microsoft and NVIDIA plan to invest up to $15 billion in AI startup Anthropic, raising its valuation to $350 billion, with a commitment to purchase $30 billion worth of computing power from Microsoft’s Azure platform [4][5]. - The partnership aims to enhance Anthropic's AI model, Claude, and signifies a shift in Microsoft's strategy to reduce reliance on OpenAI, with which it has previously invested over $13 billion [5]. - GlobalFoundries announced the acquisition of Advanced Micro Foundry (AMF), aiming to become the largest silicon photonics chip manufacturer globally, enhancing its capabilities in Singapore and complementing its existing technologies in the U.S. [6][7]. Technological Developments - The acquisition of AMF will allow GlobalFoundries to leverage silicon photonics technology, which is crucial for high-speed data transmission in AI data centers and telecommunications [7]. - Arm has announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to integrate its Neoverse platform with NVIDIA's NVLink Fusion technology, facilitating easier integration of Arm-based CPUs with NVIDIA's GPUs for large-scale data center operators [8][9]. - This partnership is expected to set new standards for AI infrastructure, with Arm's Neoverse platform projected to capture 50% of the market share in top-tier data centers by 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the debate surrounding the economic lifespan of GPUs, which is crucial for understanding the profitability of major tech companies and the validity of current AI valuations. Bernstein's report suggests a depreciation period of 6 years for GPUs, arguing that this is economically reasonable, while critics like Michael Burry claim the actual lifespan is only 2-3 years, warning of potential accounting manipulation to inflate profits [1][11]. Group 1: Economic Viability of GPU Depreciation - Bernstein analysts argue that a 6-year depreciation period for GPUs is justified, as the cash costs of operating older GPUs are significantly lower than their rental prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that even 5-year-old NVIDIA A100 chips can still yield "comfortable profits," indicating that the depreciation policies of major cloud service providers are fair and not merely for financial embellishment [2][4]. - The analysis shows that the contribution profit margin for A100 chips can reach up to 70%, with operational costs being substantially lower than rental income, providing strong economic incentives for extending GPU usage [4][5]. Group 2: Market Demand and Old GPUs - The current market environment supports the value of older GPUs, as there is overwhelming demand for computing power, with AI labs willing to pay for any available capacity, even for outdated models [6][7]. - Industry analysts note that the A100's computing capacity remains nearly fully booked, suggesting that as long as demand stays strong, older hardware will continue to hold value [8]. Group 3: Depreciation Policies of Tech Giants - Google has a depreciation period of six years for its servers and network equipment, while Microsoft ranges from two to six years, and Meta plans to extend some assets to 5.5 years starting January 2025 [9][10]. - Notably, Amazon has reduced the expected lifespan of some servers and network equipment from six years to five years, reflecting differing views within the industry on hardware iteration speed [10]. Group 4: Criticism and Concerns - Michael Burry warns that tech giants are artificially inflating profits by extending the effective lifespan of assets, predicting that this accounting practice could lead to a profit inflation of $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 [11][12]. - Burry specifically points out that companies like Oracle and Meta could see their profits overstated by 26.9% and 20.8%, respectively, due to these practices [12]. - Previous warnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley indicate that the market may be underestimating the true scale of AI investments and the potential surge in future depreciation costs, which could reveal a lower actual profitability for tech giants than expected [14][15].

当避险资产失灵，黄金与美股同跌，传递出什么信号？ 1 抛售潮席卷全球 隔夜，标普500指数跌破6725点关键支撑，在139个交易日内首次收盘跌破50日均线，与纳指双双失守50日均线。 比特币跌破9万美元大关，尽数回吐今年30％涨幅，技术面形成"死亡交叉"。现货黄金跌破4020美元，连续四日下跌。 今日亚太股市接棒全线下挫，日经225指数、韩国综合指数均跌超3%，港股恒指跌1.74%失守26000点。黄金一度跌破4000美元关口。 今晚美股开盘前，美股期货继续下跌，纳斯达克100指数期货跌幅扩大至1%，道指期货跌0.5%，标普500指数跌0.7%，真是一股风雨欲来的架势。 当黄金与美股同跌，传递出什么信号？ 市场人士倾向于认为，黄金与股市的同步下跌背后是市场流动性紧张的信号。因为投资者被迫抛售盈利资产以弥补其他持仓的损失。 可是美国政府重新开门后，被囤积的TGA流动性不是可以同步释放了吗？市场为何还会流动性紧张？ 因为美联储于12月1日正式结束缩表前，市场面临的情况是：ONRRP用量当前接近零，无法对冲缩表影响+银行准备金也消耗至2.83万亿美元（属于稍微 紧张的状态）+美股科技股处于高位下的利空敏感。 如隔夜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology stocks, is primarily driven by concerns over high valuations in the AI sector and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3][5]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The technology sector, especially AI stocks like Nvidia, has been a major driver of market gains, with Nvidia's stock price increasing nearly tenfold since November 2022 and becoming the first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion [3]. - There are growing concerns that AI valuations may be inflated, leading to profit-taking ahead of Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report [3]. - Despite the market's worries about AI valuation bubbles, significant investments are still being made in valuable companies, as evidenced by Berkshire Hathaway's recent purchase of Alphabet shares, which rose by 3.1% on that day [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Initially, there was a strong expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with probabilities exceeding 90% a month ago; however, recent comments from Fed officials have reduced this expectation to around 40% [3]. - The upcoming release of the September non-farm payroll data and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting are critical events that will influence future interest rate decisions and market sentiment [3][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to remain calm and not react impulsively to short-term market fluctuations, as a 550-point drop in a single day is part of normal market behavior after significant gains [5]. - Investors should focus on Nvidia's earnings report and the upcoming economic data to gauge the sustainability of AI demand and the direction of interest rate policies [5]. - Diversification is emphasized as a key strategy, encouraging investors to seek out companies with reasonable valuations and core competitive advantages rather than concentrating on a few popular stocks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of an "AI bubble" in the U.S. market, driven by a surge in bond issuance by major tech companies, raising concerns about sustainability and potential risks in both equity and debt markets [1][2]. Group 1: AI Bond Issuance - The scale of bond issuance by U.S. AI companies has exceeded $200 billion this year, with Oracle issuing $18 billion in September and Meta issuing $30 billion in October, marking the largest corporate bond transaction of 2023 [2]. - The primary driver behind this bond issuance is the significant capital expenditure required for AI infrastructure investments, as companies' free cash flow is insufficient to cover these expenses after accounting for stock buybacks and dividends [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - There is a stark contrast between stock and bond market reactions; for instance, Meta's stock fell by 11.33% on the day of its bond issuance, yet the bonds were oversubscribed with demand reaching approximately $125 billion, setting a record for U.S. corporate bond issuance [4]. - The bond market prioritizes debt repayment capacity, and companies like Meta have stable cash flows and low leverage, which enhances investor confidence in their bonds despite stock market volatility [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Health and Risks - Concerns are rising regarding the sustainability of capital expenditures, as Oracle's capital spending has significantly outpaced its free cash flow, leading to a downgrade in its debt rating [6]. - The trend of heavy reliance on external financing marks a shift from previous practices where tech giants primarily depended on strong operating cash flows for expansion [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current trend of intensive bond issuance may become the norm, with expectations of continued high levels of debt issuance driven by ongoing investments in data centers, chip development, and application deployment [7][8]. - However, there is a potential for differentiation in the market, where financially stable companies may continue to attract investors, while those with weaker financial structures could face rising financing costs and potential liquidity issues [7][8].

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has entered a confirmed bear market, having dropped over 20% from its historical high of $125,000, resulting in a market cap loss exceeding $450 billion [3] - On October 11, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop of 13% within 24 hours, leading to a total liquidation amount of $19.358 billion, affecting approximately 1.66 million traders [6] - Long-term holders have sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins, marking the highest level of selling since 2024, as major investment funds and ETFs withdraw their positions [9] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have seen a sharp decline, with international spot gold dropping over 6% on October 21, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2013 [12] - The Central Bank of the Philippines is considering selling some of its gold reserves, which currently account for about 13% of its $109 billion international reserves, aiming to reduce this to a range of 8%-12% [14] - Predictions for gold prices vary significantly, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while others predict a drop to $3,500 per ounce due to excessive central bank reserves [17] Group 3: Technology Sector Performance - Global technology stocks have faced a significant downturn, with U.S. tech stocks leading the decline amid economic uncertainties and valuation corrections [20] - Nvidia's stock fell by 9.1% in the week leading up to November 7, followed by a further 3.2% drop, resulting in a market cap loss of over $100 billion [21] - Tesla's stock dropped over 6% in a single day on November 13, with a total weekly decline of approximately 10%, leading to a market cap loss exceeding $125 billion [22]